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Students at anti-Prabowo demonstrations claim that Indonesia is heading for bankruptcy
On Friday, hundreds of Indonesian students rallied in Jakarta to 'protest' the spending priorities set by President Prabowo's government and to protest this week's decision of raising gasoline prices. Students marched to the iconic Bundaran HI landmark in central Jakarta, calling their protest "Heading towards Bankrupt Indonesia". Organisers claimed that police and military personnel prevented some protesters from reaching the designated location. The government used subsidies to maintain gasoline prices in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, despite an increase in global oil prices due to the Iran war. The budget pressures from Prabowo’s ambitious spending plans are increasing, resulting in a significant price increase earlier this week. The students, dressed in their?yellow-and-blue alma mater jackets?, carried posters that included slogans like "Cancel fuel price hike" and "Wall of Shame", which was used to describe Prabowo’s cabinet. Students also asked cars passing by to honk in support. On Friday evening, police stood by as dozens of protesters left. Yatalathof Imawan is a student leader at the University of Indonesia. She said that the protesters have five demands. These include the cancellation of Prabowo’s village cooperatives and free meals programmes, as well as the lowering of the prices of staple foods and fuel. Rafael Arreva, a student protester in front of police blockade, said that "wasteful spending for free meals led to a situation fiscal where the subsidies originally provided were withdrawn." Muhammad Qodari said that Friday, the chief of the presidential communication office, had stated that the protests are democratic and that the government is listening to the public's opinions. He said that the government had cut unnecessary spending, and that the free meal program was meant to protect public health. Students and activists have also criticised Prabowo's expansion of military involvement in civil affairs. They fear that it will drag Indonesia back into the authoritarian regime it experienced under former President Suharto. "We want?to show that things aren't okay. "We don't really want Indonesia to go bankrupt. But these behaviors prove that Indonesia will be bankrupt in terms of democracy, morality, and economics," Yatalathof stated. A? As they approached the protest site, witnesses saw that hundreds of military and police personnel blocked hundreds of students. When some protesters attempted to break through the police lines and metal barriers set up to block their path, there were scuffles. Prabowo critics see the free'meals' programme as inefficient and prone to financial leakage. They also believe that it is a way to gain political support from remote areas. Many children have also suffered from food poisoning after eating meals provided under the program, which raises questions about oversight and governance. Reporting by Heru Aprihanto, Ananda Teressia, Johan Purnomo and Stanley Widianto. Editing by Gibran Pishman, John Mair, David Stanway
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India's chief economist says that equities are less tax-efficient than bonds.
India's Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran stated on Friday that the case for changes to capital gains tax on equities was weaker than bonds. This suggests that the government does not see a need to make further adjustments to its tax regime. India exempted institutional foreign investors from capital gains taxes on government securities last week. The move was made to attract more "capital" at a moment when foreign equity outflows are surging, oil prices are high, and the currency is under pressure. South Asia is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. It ships about 90% of its crude oil. It's also one of the most vulnerable countries to war-related disruptions of global energy supplies. The sustained increase in oil prices could hinder the economy, inflation and government finances. This is especially true when El Nino, a weather phenomenon which often predicts droughts, is looming. Nageswaran, a broadcaster for NDTV, said that the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.6% economic growth forecast for fiscal 2027 is realistic. However there are downside risks of 20-30 basis point. Nageswaran's estimates for fiscal 2027 were made in?February before the Middle East conflict. Nageswaran said that the nation's fuel retail stores may not need to pass on much more in terms of higher oil costs to consumers, if global prices are as expected by financial markets to fall for a full year. In May, state-owned fuel retailers increased prices four times.
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Weekend Reads: China’s oil shift, World Cup Economics
Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend 'Reads' will be published every Friday to provide an overview of what the Open Interest team have been watching, reading and listening to. This week the team is recommending a range of articles, from analyses of the 'World Cup to breakdowns of the 'energy shock. You're reading... MIKE Dolan, ROI Finance & Markets columnist: Gene Frieda, at the think tank Bruegel, considers if the latest energy crisis may require temporary fiscal-monetary cooperation in the U.S. and Europe - which could involve central banks purchasing debt or anchoring borrowing rates. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. This article explores how China adapted to the loss of oil during the Iran War. The world's biggest oil importer is able to get by with less fuel than anticipated. JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: Politics and sport should not mix. But that's just not the way it works in the real world. Miguel Delaney, The Independent's columnist, catalogues the controversies that have made this year's World Cup one of the most politically charged in history. CLYDE RUSSELL is a ROI Asia Commodities & Energy Columnist. This article by analysts from CommodityInsights explains the way an accident in a coal mine in China made its way to the seaborne markets. ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in Charge at ROI. This report reveals the Trump family’s crypto playbook, which generated huge gains for President Trump and his sons – and steep losses to investors. Listen to JAMIE MCGEEVER. ROI Markets columnist.?As markets are in flux due to the AI IPO frenzy, Oaktree 'Capital cofounder Howard Marks 'joins TBPN's podcast to place today's AI boom in historical context. We're watching... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: In this episode of Econ - World, Stefan Szymanski, author and sports economist, joins Carmel Crimmins, host, to discuss?how World Cup became a multibillion dollar spectacle. The two also discuss how the 2026 World Cup is expected to be the largest event yet, and how economists will predict the winner. Stefan and I, if you were wondering, are not related, even though we both lived in Ann Arbor. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
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SpaceX debut is all the rage as oil prices plunge on Gulf peace hopes
Oil fell and global stocks rose on Friday, as investors waited for the highly anticipated debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX at Wall Street’s opening. The European stock market gained over 1.5% after strong gains in Asia. Wall Street futures indicated gains between 0.4% to 0.5%. Oil futures fell more than 3% on Friday after U.S. president Donald Trump suggested that a peace agreement could be signed this weekend. However, Tehran claimed it hadn't made a decision about a deal. On Friday, a Western source said that a memorandum could be signed between the United States of America and Iran on Sunday to end the war. Trump has said repeatedly that a deal to end the Iran war is close since mid March. Michael Nizard said that the market was able to grasp the fact that diplomacy?was proceeding productively. Nizard said, "The market is still very sensitive to the peace deal and Trump's many and varied declarations." "Today, the (potential) for peace is well under-priced," Nizard said. Nizard stated that the huge SpaceX IPO?has also the potential to set a tone for global markets given its allocation to everyday investors who can make more immediate decisions. "This is an important market event... The retail market is important to gain momentum." Musk became the first billionaire in the world after the SpaceX IPO, which raised a record-breaking $75 billion. The rocket and spacecraft maker is now valued at $1.77 trillion. Fear of Inflation If confirmed, the Middle East peace agreement would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date?to end a three-month war that sent energy prices soaring around the world. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for nearly three years to curb war-driven inflation. The final inflation data for several European countries, including France and Spain, showed that inflation increased in May. Meanwhile, official?data revealed that Britain's economy contracted by 0.1% in the month of April -- its first decrease since August. Prices of oil fell on the expectation of a forthcoming agreement. Brent crude futures dropped 3.4% at $87.35 per barrel. Treasuries were able to hold onto their gains as markets trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year due to hopes for a peace agreement in the Gulf. The yields on two-year Treasury bills were the lowest at 4,062%, while 10-year Treasury rates were at 4.8839%. After overnight losses, the dollar was essentially flat. After a 0.4% decline in the previous session, it rose by 0.1% to 160.15?yen. The yen is still close to 160, which many traders see as a "line in the sand" and are on alert for any intervention by Japanese authorities. Friday, precious metals fell. Gold spot fell 0.2%, to $4,206 per ounce after a 3.5% overnight jump. (Reporting and editing by Stella Qiu, Kevin Buckland, Andrew Heavens).
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Gasoline shortages in the US during summer driving season cause problems
The U.S. is rushing into the peak driving season of summer, just as gasoline prices are rising. The soaring summer demand for American automobiles hasn't stopped U.S. refining companies from prioritizing lucrative jet and diesel fuel production to backfill global shortages due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed to nearly a fifth?of global oil flows. Analysts are warning that a shortage is imminent as U.S. demand for gasoline has been strong despite the fact that U.S. gas prices have risen by 40% since the start of the war, and hovered above $4. Some analysts worry that U.S. refining plants may not be able run at full capacity due to the recent increase in unplanned outages. By the end of Memorial Day weekend, the cushion of gasoline supplies that had been built up during the winter months when demand was low in the U.S. evaporated. The peak U.S. summer vacation season typically runs from early September to the end of May. According to government statistics, in the first week of this month, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level for a decade - just 215.1 millions barrels. Since the start of the war, inventories have fallen by over 34 million barrels. Distillate fuel oil inventories fell to a record low of 23 years in May. This leaves the supply vulnerable to further shocks. Analysts warn that the total demand for U.S. produced?fuel this summer could reach 9.5 millions barrels per day. Fuel makers can currently produce 9.2 million barrels per day. "Balances are going to be tight, because the (refining) margins and incentives still support jet fuel. And we know that Middle Eastern refiners won't return soon," said Sumit Ritolia. The negliding child, GASOLINE The U.S. refiners are less dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil than their Asian and European counterparts. They can maximize the distillate production to achieve strong margins. The EIA reported this week that the average four-week production of jet fuel in the United States surpassed 2,000,000 barrels per day, for the first ever time. In May, the U.S. export 54.65 millions barrels of jet and diesel fuel. This is the highest number in data from?Kpler dating back to 2017. In May, the country exported 22,52 million barrels more gasoline than it did in April. "This has made gasoline the forgotten stepchild in the refinery schedule," said Tamas Variga, an analyst at PVM oil Associates. In the past, the U.S. relied on imports from Europe to help ease regional gasoline shortages. This option has become logistically more difficult and economically less viable. Fuel supplies in Europe are also limited, and freight rates are rising due to the Strait of Hormuz blockage. Tom Kloza is the chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil. He said that even if the export rate stays where it is, and doesn't increase to meet the urgent needs of other countries, gasoline inventories could drop by 2 to 3 million barrels a week during summer crunch times. Even if refineries run at full capacity, the refined product supply is still tight. Analysts wonder if refiners can continue to run their plants at high speeds to maintain these margins. U.S. refiners operated their plants at 95.3% capacity during the first week of June, which was the highest level in almost a year. Raul Calzada is a refining analyst with Energy Aspects. He said that there are already reports of planned maintenance for the fall being postponed or re-defined. Calzada said, "If you delay maintenance, you may have to pay later." According to IIR Energy, cracks are beginning to appear. April saw the most unplanned refinery outages on average in the past five years. This equates to roughly 483,000 barrels of crude oil processing capacity per day being offline. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York; editing by Liz Hampton and David Gregorio
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Experts say that El Nino is a global threat, but it will likely help Argentina's crop production.
Climate specialists say that while El Nino conditions can 'hurt harvests around the world, it is more likely to boost agricultural production in Argentina during the second half of the year. The Climate Prediction Center of the United States said on Thursday that El Nino conditions would intensify in the second half 2026. El Nino is a phenomenon that causes ocean water to warm in the equatorial Pacific, causing lower rainfall across Asia and Australia. It also raises concerns about global food shortages and increased prices because of droughts. Climate specialists say that in Argentinia, an exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat, this phenomenon tends to increase the intensity and frequency of rain, which is generally favorable for crop growth. German Heinzenknecht is a meteorologist with the Argentine Applied Climatology Consultancy. He said that the upcoming season of 2026/27 will be characterized by El Nino. According to official data, the last intense El Nino was in the 2015/16 cycle. Argentina had the second largest soybean harvest?in its history at 59.1 millions metric tons. The average corn yields were 7% higher than average?of the past 10 years. Climate specialist Eduardo Sierra said that El Nino can produce very high yields in the agricultural heartland. In Argentinia, corn planting will start in September while soybean planting will take place in October. According to the Rosario Board of Trade the country's producers have already begun sowing the 2026/27 crop of wheat, which is expected to reach 20 million tons. This would be Argentina's third largest harvest of cereal. (Reporting and writing by Maximilian Heath, Leila Miller, Edmund Klamann; editing by Edmund Klamann).
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Norsk Hydro declares new force majeure on Qatar aluminium
According to a notice received by?on Saturday, Norsk Hydro declared a second case of force majeure for?aluminum sales from Qatar. This was after the Qatalum joint-venture?had unexpectedly terminated its marketing agreement with Norsk Hydro. Hydro, which holds a?50%?share in the Qatalum project, which produces 648,000 metric tonnes per year, along with Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co, also known as Qamco issued a force majeure order in early March, after the Middle East war interrupted the gas supply to the plant and Qatalum began a shutdown. The?force majeure clause - which exempts parties from any liability in the event of a failure to supply due to circumstances beyond their control, remains in effect even though Qatalum received enough gas to operate 60% of its capacity. Hydro issued a second notice of force majeure to its customers Friday in relation to?its contractual arrangements with Qatalum. The force majeure notice stated that Qatalum had notified Hydro of its termination of the agreement whereby Hydro markets and sells Qatalum Metal. Hydro also disputed Qatalum’s right to terminate the contract. The notice stated that "despite Hydro's attempts to have Qatalum retract its termination notice, Qatalum refused to do so. Qatalum informed Hydro that it would not deliver metal in accordance with the relevant agreements." Hydro will not be able meet its obligations to deliver under the contract even if conditions in the Middle East improve. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said 'on Thursday that a peace deal could be signed with Iran this weekend to end a three-month war. Uncertainty surrounded the termination of this agreement by?Qatalum. Qamco and Qatalum, both 51% owned by QatarEnergy and Qatalum, didn't immediately respond to emails and calls seeking comments on Friday. The notice stated that it was impossible to estimate the full duration of force majeure, but Hydro would do its best to minimize disruptions to customers. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tom Daly)
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Poland will select a partner for a second nuclear reactor in 2027
Poland plans to choose a partner and confirm the location of its second nuclear plant by 2027, said its deputy energy minister on Friday. He was presenting an updated plan for nuclear capacity in Poland. As Poland moves away from its coal-based power fleet, the program predicts that it will eventually have 6-9 gigawatts in nuclear?power plant?capacity. Construction of the first plant will begin in 2020. The plant is expected to start supplying electricity in 2036. Wojciech Wrochna said at a press conference that "this schedule is achievable". Poland has chosen Westinghouse Electric, a U.S. company, to build its first nuclear power plant along the Baltic Sea Coast. Consultations have begun for the selection of a partner in the second plant. Candidates from the U.S.A, France, Canada, and South Korea are invited. The Energy Minister?Milosz Motyka said at the same conference that Warsaw has ceased to be in dialogue with South Korea regarding the project because potential South Korean partners have not replied to the invitation. Wrochna stated that the government expects a selected partner to?provide funding for the project. He said: "The assumption for the second project is that we're moving away from the project that's financed by the taxpayer." Belchatow and Konin are the preferred sites in central Poland for the second nuclear plant. (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Jan Harvey)
What just happened? Five charts to summarize the financial week
Open Interest (ROI),?will give you a summary of the week's financial performance with five charts every Friday. We will highlight the major trends, but also some surprising and sometimes overlooked moves.
This week we have said a lot, now let's rely on the data.
(1) LOSS LEADER ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: IPOs by loss-making firms have accounted for an increasing share of the total IPO proceeds in the last two years - amid the AI boom – after equity issuance dropped in 2022 due to the increase in interest rates. The trend is set to continue with Elon Musk's $75 billion SpaceX IPO, particularly with OpenAI and Anthropic on the horizon. Is this merely laying the foundation for the next technological age or an indication of overexuberance? Or both? Only time will tell.
(2) END OF AN ERA? RON BOUSSO is a columnist for ROI Energy. OPEC’s share of world oil production has dropped since the start of 'Iran War and the closing of Strait of Hormuz. It will be difficult for the producer group to regain its strength.
(3) NIMBY MIKE DOLAN: According to a recent /Ipsos survey, only one third of Americans approves of the rapid pace of data-center construction that supports artificial intelligence. Most Americans would be opposed to having one built within their community.
(4) SAFETY FINAL JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: Gold is in free fall, even though inflation?is on the rise and geopolitical risks remain sky-high. Gold is down by nearly 30% since its peak in January above $5,500/oz. It is also on the verge of falling below $4,000 again for the first time since November.
(5) COMEBACK The liquefied natural gas market in Asia has quietly recovered from the'shock' of losing nearly?20% to the Iran conflict, as the top buyer China is showing signs of returning to it. According to Kpler's data, Asia is on track to receive 21.83 metric tons of LNG in June. This will be the highest amount for five months, and an increase year-over-year. Asia's LNG exports dropped to a six year low of 18.74 metric tons in April after the closure of the Strait o f?Hormuz stopped shipments. Qatar had shipped 80.9 metric tons of LNG in 2025.
The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to maintaining integrity, independence and neutrality.
(source: Reuters)