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Oil stocks rise globally, but US CPI remains stable
Oil prices fell on Wednesday as traders awaited the outcome of talks to end Iran's war. U.S. inflation data showed only a small increase, which dampened some expectations about a Federal Reserve rate hike. The U.S.-Iran talks were at a standstill. Both the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have reported separate attacks on ships. Oil prices fell as investors took into account lower demand expectations. Data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.1% in July. This was in line with the expectations. This small increase may weaken the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month. Money markets had a 50% chance that a rate hike would occur before the release of data. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, Fairfield, Connecticut. The data shattered rate-hike bets, and gold prices increased by more than 1%. Data did not reflect the recent increase in oil prices, which has risen amidst tensions between the U.S. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.37%, to 1,154.92. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.10% to 53.848.98. The S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7.752.35 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.65% to 26,617.60. CoreWeave, a cloud-based AI company, released positive results after the markets closed on Tuesday. This gave a boost to the AI trade. The pan-continental STOXX 600 index fell 0.04% in Europe while the broad FTSEurofirst 300 Index lost 0.09%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, closed up by 0.92% to 1,636.51. Emerging Market Stocks rose by 1.05% to 1,682.95. Talks to End the War in Iran Continue The markets were still closely following the talks to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. Both the U.S., and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis, reported separate attacks against shipping on Tuesday. Iran and the U.S. both have increased their rhetoric over recent days. Iran's top security official stated on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain "closed" unless the U.S. accepted Iran's demands. Investors have remained calm. Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor under the oil prices and keeps an energy-driven inflationary force in the markets for?the short-to-medium-term. Brent crude futures fell by 0.26%, to $88.68 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped by 0.49%, to $82.79. The benchmarks for both Brent and U.S. crude oil settled higher by more than $1 on Tuesday. This was their highest closing since July 31. Markets anticipate a BOJ hike The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes of the United States fell 1.81 basis points to 4.666% and that on German benchmark Bunds of 10 years. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.81 basis points, to 4.666%. And the yield on German 10-year Bunds also fell 3.77 basis?points, to 3.139%. The markets are pricing in a rate hike early in Japan. This puts pressure on Japan's short-dated bonds. Investors have priced in a nearly 60% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by a quarter point at its September meeting. The yen gained 0.11%, to 159.08 per dollar. This is still below the high of last week of 155.20. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.08%, to 99.73. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.1%, at $1.1552. Spot gold increased by 1.61%, to $4436.99 per ounce. (Reporting from Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift in London, Chris Prentice and Sinead carew in New York; additional reporting by Sinead carew; editing by Edwina gibbs Stephen Coates and Barbara Lewis.
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India and Southern African Customs bloc renew trade pact discussions
India and the five members of the Southern African Customs Union signed terms-of-reference on Wednesday, to begin talks on a preferred trade agreement. New Delhi is seeking lower tariffs for exports such as cars, pharmaceuticals, and industrial machinery. After five rounds of talks that ended in 2010 without an agreement, the move brings back India's negotiations with SACU. SACU is made up of South Africa, Botswana Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini. The agreement could be India's first significant trade agreement with a regional African bloc. It would give Indian companies access to 65 million people in Africa while also helping SACU members increase their exports?to the fastest-growing major economies of the world. The scope, objectives, and procedures of the negotiations are determined by the terms of reference. A preferential trade agreement is different from a comprehensive?free trade agreement because it usually cuts duty on a list of agreed products and less likely to cover services, investments or intellectual property. South Africa is considering raising the duty on autos imported from India and China from 25% to 50%, which would threaten a major Indian export. After signing the agreement, Ndiitah Nghipondoka Roberti, executive director of Namibia's Ministry of International Relations and Trade with Yashvir Singh (an additional secretary in India's Trade Ministry), said that these terms would guide negotiators to a "balanced and mutually beneficial agreement oriented towards development." India's trade minister Piyush Goyal expressed his confidence that SACU and India will "benefit enormously" from an equitable, balanced, and fair agreement which he hopes to finalise within the next few months. Trade officials and industry representatives have said that India is expected to seek duty concessions on automobiles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, machines, electrical equipment, textiles, and chemicals. In the fiscal year ending March 2026, India's exports to SACU were $1.7 billion in value. India's exports totaled $7.5 billion to SACU in 2025/26. Imports were $9.2 billion. South Africa accounted for the majority of trade, with Indian exports totaling $7 billion and imports $9.2 billion. New Delhi also seeks to improve its access to SACU's supply of minerals that are critical for manufacturing, batteries, and clean energy technologies, such as manganese, platinum group metals, and copper. Manoj Kumar is the reporter. (Editing by Alison Williams, Mark Potter and Alison Williams)
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Hungary seeks to cool nuclear plant using Danube engineering
In a video posted on Facebook, Peter Magyar, the Prime Minister of Hungary said that the government would carry out engineering works?on the Danube River to raise water levels and ensure cooling for Paks Nuclear Plant. In recent weeks, the Danube fell to record lows amid a heatwave and a drought that lasted across Europe. The plant is now only operating at around 25% of capacity with only two out of eight turbines still running. The summer droughts have caused havoc on the European power industry, shipping and health care systems. Romania's neighbor, for instance, may shut down its final working?reactor Thursday due to the continued fall in levels of the Danube, despite attempts to divert cooling?water to?the plant. The engineering work that will be done in Hungary includes a "riverbed sill", which is a submerged dam-like structure, built across the bottom of a channel to regulate water flow. RAISING WATER LEVELS The military will help to start the construction of the sill immediately, using nearly 150,000 cubic metres of stone. This will cost approximately 6 billion forints (19 million dollars). Magyar stated that the river sill could raise the water levels by as much as 1 meter and ensure that within a few weeks, the plant will be back to full capacity. Magyar stated that "the prolonged low water level on the Danube is causing immense damage to the Hungarian budget and economy. This is why we need to find a?solution that can be implemented 'immediately. He also said that preparations were made for the possible sinking of two barges of 80 meters 'as a temporary measure, as the water levels will drop further within the next four to five day, leading to the shutdown of the nuclear power plant. Magyar stated that sinking the 'barges' could raise the water level by 20 centimeters within a short time period, allowing the facility to operate during the construction of the riverbed sill. On Friday, the government will decide whether or not to sink barges.
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Global stocks hold gains after in-line US CPI
The?global stock market held onto its gains on Wednesday, after U.S. data on inflation came in as expected. Oil?prices also edged up after a senior Iranian official said that there had been no talks with Washington about extending the ceasefire. According to a survey of economists, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The annual CPI inflation rate slowed from 3.5% to 3.4% a month ago. Richard Carter, Head of Fixed Interest Research at Quilter-Cheviot, said that "the market should react positively to the latest inflation figures, given Kevin Warsh's unwillingness to provide much or any forward guidance." Following the data, traders stuck to their bets which narrowly favoured an interest rate halt at next month's meeting. Markets give about a 50% chance that the Fed keeps its policy rate within the current range of 3.50%-3.75 %. U.S. Stock Futures,?the S&P500 e-minis were up 0.4% and held onto gains following the data. Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.8% after CoreWeave, a cloud AI company, announced positive results following Tuesday's closing. The STOXX 600, which is the pan-European index, was up 0.2% in Europe. Frankfurt, Paris, and London's major stock indexes were all up between?0.1% and 0.4%. Stocks in Asia rose by?0.9%. The gains were led by the South Korean Kospi's 3.7% rise and a nearly 1% increase in Japanese and Taiwanese shares as chipmakers rose. Talks to End the Iran War Continue Markets are still watching negotiations to end Iran's war and open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. According to a senior Iranian source, there are no talks between Iran and the U.S. about extending their ceasefire, because from Tehran's point of view, the deal has no start date, and there is nothing to extend. The update came after attacks on ships in the Middle East Tuesday. Both Iran and the U.S. also have increased their rhetoric over the past few days. Investors are calm despite the lack of progress. Stocks around the world are close to records highs. "Our base-case for a very long time was a gradual, but messy deescalation," stated?Dorian Carrell. He is the head of Schroders'?multi-asset-income. We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor under the oil prices and keeps the markets fueled by energy inflation in the short-to-medium-term. U.S. crude oil rose 0.7% to $83.71 per barrel while Brent rose 0.3% to $89.19 per barrel, both set to extend their five-day streak of positive performance. The benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest since July 31, and extended gains after?jumping 5% on Sunday. The?dollar index fell to 99.69. Both the euro and sterling?ticked-up after the U.S. Inflation data. The yen rose 0.3% to 158.81 dollars, but was still below the highs of last week of 155.20 following several suspected rounds. Spot gold increased by 1.4%, to $4,428 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2.9%, to $66.47 per ounce. Reporting by Samuel Indyk from London and Rocky Swift from Tokyo. Barbara Lewis and Mark Potter edited the article.
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Azerbaijani President says that his country can supply electricity to Armenia
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said that his country could provide 'electricity' to Armenia. He added that Yerevan would not be able to?extend?the?life?of the Metsamor nuclear plant, which is old and inefficient. The Armenian government has not yet commented on Aliyev’s proposal, or whether Yerevan will consider importing power?from Azerbaijan. After decades of conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving toward a 'normalisation of relations'. This opens the door to new transport and energy links. Armenia, which has been heavily reliant on energy from?Russia and Iran, is now reviewing proposals by U.S. companies, Russian, Chinese and South Korean firms to build a new reactor to replace the Soviet era Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant. Aliyev stated in an interview to 'Azerbaijani State Television' that Azerbaijani experts had conducted preliminary surveys on Armenian territory and identified possible locations for electric transmission pylons as part of a plan connecting Azerbaijan’s power grid with the Nakhchivan Exclave through 'Armenia. Aliyev stated that "Armenia's primary energy source today is a nuclear plant." "If the nuclear power plant is shut down, Armenia could be facing a major energy crisis," Aliyev said, adding that a second source of electricity was in Yerevan’s best interest. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn)
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Oil stocks rise globally, but US CPI remains stable
Oil prices and global equity markets increased after the talks to end Iran's war reached an impasse. The markets then turned to the U.S. inflation data later that day. The?U.S. Consumer prices data will provide signals about the timing of a Federal Reserve rate increase. The data may not reflect the latest rise in oil price, but it can still be used to set expectations for next month's Fed meeting when the money markets predict a roughly 50/50 chance of an increase. According to a survey, consumer prices are predicted to rise by 0.1% in the month of July after dropping 0.4% in June. The CPI is expected to fall to 3.4% in July from 3.5% one month earlier. Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. He said, "We think the market?s read on inflation, interest rates and monetary conditions seems to be driving the markets at the moment." He added, "The?CPI is expected to be relatively soft today. This would set up a hold for the midterms if all other things are equal." The pan-continental STOXX 600 rose 0.2% late in the European morning. The major stock indexes of Frankfurt, Paris, and London rose between 0.1% and 0.4%. Stocks in Asia rose by 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi rose 3.7%, while Japan and Taiwan saw a sharp rise of almost 1%. Chipmakers were the main contributors to this increase. U.S. Stock Futures, S&P 500 eminis, rose by 0.3% while Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.7%. This was due to the positive results of AI cloud company CoreWeave, which were released after the market closed Tuesday. Talks to End the War in Iran Continue The markets were still closely following the talks to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. Both the U.S., and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis, reported separate attacks against shipping on Tuesday. Iran and the U.S. both have increased their rhetoric over recent days. Mohsenrezaei said that Iran's top security official would not allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain open unless the U.S. accepted Iran's demands for an end to the war. Investors are calm despite the lack of progress between the two sides. Carrell, Schroders' analyst, said: "Our basic case has been for a very long time a gradual and messy de-escalation." We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor on the oil prices and keeps the markets fueled by energy inflationary in the short-to-medium-term. U.S. crude fell 0.3% to $82.94 per barrel and Brent dropped 0.2% to $89,71 per barrel. This was likely to end a positive streak of five days. Both benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest close since July 31, and continuing gains after a 5% jump on Monday. MARKETS ANTICIPATE AN?BOJ HIKE Markets increasingly price in an early rate increase in Japan, putting a pressure on the nation’s shorter-dated debt. The yield on the 5-year Japanese Government Bond rose to a record-high of 2.12%. Meanwhile, the yield for the 2-year Japanese Government Bond reached a high of 1.645%, which is a 31 year old peak. Investors have priced in a nearly 60% chance of an increase of one quarter point at the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for September. The yen weakened slightly to 159.12 dollars, but remained below the high of last week of 155.20. This is after?several suspected round of intervention. The dollar index (which measures a currency's value against a basket) was little changed, at 99.84. Before the U.S. data on inflation, both the euro and sterling struggled to find direction. Spot gold increased 1%, to $4,413 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2.5%, to $66.29 per ounce. (Reporting from Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift, in London; Editing by Edwina gibbs and Stephen Coates)
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Health Rounds - According to a study, wildfires are the main source of air pollution in U.S. pregnancy.
We also share a report by cardiologists suggesting that you may (or may not) want check your waist and hip measurement, as well as a lab?study that has some encouraging news regarding brain tumor treatments. WILDFIRES ARE THE MAIN CAUSE OF US AIR POLUTION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY Researchers?say that wildfires are the main source of air pollution harmful to pregnant women in the United States. The study examined 64.5 million pregnancies between 2003 and 2019 in 48 states, analyzing the "neighborhood" exposure to tiny airborne particles of 2.5 micrometers in diameter or less that penetrate deep into the lungs. Vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions and wildfires are the main sources of PM2.5 pollution. The amount of smoke from wildfires has more than doubled since 2003, and the exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy has decreased significantly. Researchers reported in Frontiers in Environmental Health that by 2019, wildfire smoke would be the leading contributor to high pollution days during pregnancy in the United States. In 2019, wildfire air pollution was responsible for approximately 65% "exceedance" days -- when PM2.5 levels exceeded 35 micrograms per cubic meter. Researchers have noted that wildfire smoke can cause adverse outcomes for babies. Researchers cannot speak directly to what is happening in Europe where record heatwaves are contributing to some the worst wildfires on the continent in history. According to Michel Boudreaux, senior author of the study from the University of Maryland, wildfire smoke, and other air pollutants, are responsible for adverse birth outcomes in the U.S. as well as Europe. While individuals can take steps to reduce their exposure to toxins (air filtering, masking), communities and governments need to play a more active role. They should ensure that the public has access to air-purifying shelters and that schools, homes and workplaces have adequate air filters. ABDOMINAL FIBRO PREDICTS HEART DISEASE RISK EVEN BETTER THAN BMI Researchers say that the size of someone's midsection can be a better indicator of risk for heart disease than their body mass index. BMI is a weight-to-height ratio that has been used to diagnose obesity and overweight, which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Studies have shown, however, that visceral fat around abdominal organs is associated with chronic diseases such as heart disease and diabetes more than subcutaneous fat directly beneath the skin. Researchers reported in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology that BMI doesn't account for the distribution of body fat, and that not accounting for waist circumference (or waist-to hip ratio) can lead to a misclassification of cardiovascular risk. In a press release, Dr. Michael Blaha from Johns Hopkins University stated that individuals with normal weight but elevated central adiposity or a high waist-to hip ratio -- which means their waist was larger than their hips -- were at higher risk for most outcomes. The team analyzed data from over 260,000 people collected in the last 20 years. Individuals with normal or overweight weight who have a high waist circumference, and a high waist-to hip ratio are at heightened risk of fatal and non-fatal strokes and heart disease. Obesity and low waist circumference were associated with similar outcomes as those with normal weight and low circumference. The study was not conducted by Dr. Harlan Krumholz. He is the editor-in chief of the journal. Krumholz stated in a press release that "this enormously important study based on data collected from hundreds of thousands of participants participating in large-scale cohorts" shows conclusively that waist circumference, and the waist-to hip ratio, provide crucial information about cardiovascular risks. These simple measures are part of a routine cardiovascular risk assessment. Researchers find brain-tumor vulnerability Studies in mice indicate that after surgery for incurable brain tumors, drugs are able to cross the protective barrier of the brain and reach cancer cells likely to cause recurrence. The surgery to remove a Glioblastoma is usually performed within days of the diagnosis. Chemotherapy and radiation are then administered four to six week later. The delay allows some cancer cells to continue growing. The residual cancer cells are only marginally eliminated by chemotherapy, and the tumors return. Researchers found that the blood-brain barriers were disrupted in the immediate hours following surgery and then again 48 to 72 hours later. According to a report in Science Translational Medicine, during these periods, nanoparticles containing drugs may accumulate at the resection margin. This is where tumors most often recur. The delivery of nanoparticles with the chemotherapy agent, doxorubicin, was increased during peak periods of blood-brain barriers disruption postoperatively. This inhibited tumor recurrence. In a press release, Dr. Thomas Kisby of University of Manchester (UK) said that the glioblastoma surgical procedure exposes a short-term vulnerability which we can exploit. If treatment is given during the specific window we identified, this can stop the disease before it grows back.
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India's Grasim Industries has a strong first-quarter performance as its core business improves
Grasim Industries, a company based in India, reported a'standalone profit' in the first three months of this year. This was due to a'strong performance in its fibre business which provides materials for textiles and apparel, as well as fewer losses in newer ventures. Aditya Birla Group's flagship company reported a standalone net profit of 632.2 million rupees (about $6.33 million) in the quarter ended June 30. This compares to a loss?of 1.18 million rupees one year ago. Grasim’s fibre business reported a 12% % increase in revenue year-on-year. Analysts expected a'sharp improvement' in Grasim’s quarterly earnings as higher prices boosted its fibre business, while losses at its paints business and business-to business e-commerce ventures narrowed. ICICI Securities forecast Grasim’s operating?profit to roughly double from a previous year, while Antique Stock Broking predicted a 77% increase. Grasim’s Birla Opus Paints?business grew revenue by 64% to 16.61 billion rupees as the company expanded in a'market that was previously dominated by Asian Paints and Berger Paints. Grasim’s standalone?revenues from operations increased?27.8% in the third quarter to 117.95?rupees.
Gold gains over 1% after US inflation data denies rate hike bets
Gold rose by more than 1% on Wednesday. This was supported by a softer dollar after the U.S. inflation rate matched expectations. It also boosted bets on whether or not the Federal Reserve would keep rates at current levels in September.
Gold spot rose by 1.1%, to $4,416.29 an ounce, at 09:25 am EDT (1325 GMT), surpassing the 100-day moving median, which currently stands at $4,387.33. Bullion reached its highest level on Tuesday since June 5. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.8% to $4 476.10.
The Fed's argument to raise interest rates next month could be weakened by the slight increase in consumer inflation that occurred in the U.S. The rate of inflation in the United States increased by 0.1% last month, which was on par with expectations, after a drop of 0.4%.
The CPI data is encouraging. "The CPI data has been encouraging."
Dollar-priced gold is now more affordable to buyers abroad thanks to a 0.1% drop in the U.S. index.
According to CME FedWatch, traders now price in a 38% probability of an interest rate increase at the Fed meeting on September, down from 46% prior to the inflation data.
On July 29, the Fed left its benchmark policy rate at 3.50%-3.75 percent, despite three of the 12 voting policymakers dissenting in favor of a rate increase.
Gold that does not yield tends to be less attractive in a higher interest rate environment.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due Thursday.
As the prospects of ending the Iran War appeared to be fading, both the U.S. as well as Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis launched separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday.
Meir stated that a resumption in hostilities could cause oil to move back towards $100, and you might see rates rise. Gold may also struggle.
Silver spot, among other metals, rose 1.9%, to $65.87 an ounce. It had earlier in the day reached its highest level since 22 June.
Palladium rose 1.5% to $1380.75, while platinum increased 1.6% to $1772.51. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
(source: Reuters)