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Gold as US-Iran hopes for peace ease inflation concerns
Gold prices rose on Thursday, boosted by optimism about a 'potential U.S. Iran peace deal.' This helped ease inflation concerns and the 'interest rates remained high. Gold spot was up 0.3% to $4,700.98 an ounce at 1:53 pm EDT (1753 GMT) after reaching a session high earlier. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.4% higher, at $4.710.90. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that if the ceasefire held, and we could put this war to rest, then I could see gold pushing to $5,000/oz. The market is watching the Middle East situation as well as what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do." Sources and officials have said that the U.S. is edging closer to an agreement with Iran on a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has been reviewing a plan?that would end the war but leave unresolved the most controversial issues. Oil has reversed its course and become positive. The Wall Street Journal reported that a senior Iranian official stated that Iran would not permit the U.S. reopening the Strait of Hormuz if it had an "unrealistic plan". Press TV, Iran's national broadcaster was cited by the Wall Street Journal. Inflation is often a result of rising energy costs. In this scenario, policymakers might be less likely to reduce interest rates in order to control price pressures. Gold, despite its role as a hedge against inflation, becomes less appealing?in an environment with higher rates because it does not offer a yield. TD Securities stated in a report that there is a way to get gold above $5,200/oz once the conflict and inflation pressures caused by oil fade. It said that a pivot towards the Fed's mandate of maximum employment, lower?yields, and a softening U.S. Dollar, as well as renewed investor and central bank demand, could reignite the bull market. The markets are waiting for the U.S. monthly employment report to be released on Friday in order to determine how the Fed will move forward this year with its monetary policy. Data showed that China's central banks piled up gold for the eighteenth consecutive month in April. Silver spot rose 2.6%, to $79.32 after reaching its highest level since April 17. Palladium dropped 2.5%, to $1,498.86, while platinum fell 1.2%, at $2,036.28. Ashitha Shivprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Barbara Lewis edited the story.
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Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to analysts, traders and market experts, there were a series of well-timed "market bets" on falling oil prices that totaled $7 billion between March and April, spread across different exchanges, types of fuel, and derivatives, just before Donald Trump's major announcements about Iran policy. The amount of the bets exceeds previous reported wagers totaling $2.6 billion. This has already led to the U.S. Administration to warn staff against using confidential information to their financial advantage. A 'person familiar with this matter' told a CFTC official in April that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an investigation. However, the CFTC is yet to confirm a sleuth is under way. They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America. These included short positions (or bets on falling prices) for derivatives such as ICE, CME, crude, diesel, and?gasoline. Bets were placed on two major exchanges: Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades. The first unusual trades were noticed by traders on 23 March. Minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure and cause an oil price drop, traders executed the trades. On April 7, the same pattern was repeated before Trump announced a truce with Iran, which triggered a?fall of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. The same pattern repeated on April 17, when Iranian officials spoke with Trump about reopening Strait of Hormuz. And again on the 21st of April, when Trump extended the ceasefire. Other media reported these trades. The bets were placed on the most actively traded contracts of the front-month contracts Brent and West Texas intermediate. Initial calculations show that the value of these bets on?those four days in March and?April was around $2.6 billion. The U.S. Justice Department and CFTC did not respond immediately to requests for comments. (Alun John, Alex Lawler, Robert Harvey and Michelle Price contributed additional reporting from London and Washington. Simon Webb and David Gregorio edited the story.
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Sources: Barrick Contractor to leave Mali and lay off 600 people
Three sources claim that the largest contractor of Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Complex in Mali has closed operations and laid off more than 600 employees. This is a new sign the Canadian miner wants to reduce its exposure to high-risk assets. Sources familiar with the situation said that the move was prompted by a sluggish investment and production at the complex. Barrick had taken control of the complex from Malian administrators after a standoff over taxes and ownership. First and second sources said Barrick did not intend to renew its contract with Gounkoto Mining Services in 2026. They added that it was unclear if it would do so for 2027. The two sources added that GMS, which manages extraction at Gounkoto's open-pit mining and the Yalea North mine in South Africa, has sent termination letters to over 600 workers who are serving their notice following mandatory medical examinations. Since Barrick took control of the mines in December, neither mine has resumed production. Barrick's and GMS parent company DTP didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The Mali mines ministry spokesperson said that it could not comment on the matter as this was an "internal issue". Sources say that Loulo Gounkoto's departure and the challenges he faces are not connected to the Mali security threats posed by insurgent groups. Their recent large-scale attacks occurred far away from the complex. INVESTMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATEST PART OF THIS YEAR. The Loulo Gounkoto Complex is one of Africa's largest gold mines. Mali's output of gold fell by 23% in the past year due largely to the suspension of mining. First source: Barrick's 2026 production target for the complex has been lowered and the mine?Gounkoto is not included in the plans for this year. Sources said that the complex is expected to produce about 103,000 ounces in the second quarter - far below the average production before the standoff. Data seen by us show that the figures still represent an increase from levels under temporary administration. The first source stated that GMS's withdrawal is a reflection of weak investment, and in some cases deteriorating infrastructure. The first and third sources both said that investment is expected to increase later in the year. They said that expatriate workers, who left the country more than a month ago, during the dispute, are expected to return by the second quarter. According to a source, while?Gounkoto & Yalea North are still idle, Baboto & Gara West have resumed operation. Baboto and Gara West are operated by local companies Corica, and Nieta Mining. Reporting by TiemokoDiallo and Portie Crowe. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Editing), Veronica Brown, Mark Potter and Mark Potter
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Report: Trump administration invites CEOs of Nvidia and Apple to China on Trump's trip
Semafor reported that the Trump administration has invited CEOs of Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, and other large 'companies' to join him on his trip to China next week. According to the report, executives from Qualcomm, Blackstone Citigroup and Visa were also present. Citigroup, Visa, Nvidia and Apple did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Qualcomm confirmed the invitation, but declined to provide any further comment. Blackstone and Boeing declined comment. As Donald Trump prepares to visit 'Beijing' next week for a meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping, the media is buzzing about possible deals. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in April that Boeing was counting on Trump to unlock a much-anticipated?major Chinese order. China and the U.S. aircraft manufacturer have been in 'prolonged discussions' for a deal which, according to industry sources, could include 500 737 MAX plus dozens widebody jets. This would be China's first significant?Boeing purchase since 2017. Any announcement of this order will be viewed as an 'important win' for the leaders' summit.
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Argentina Mining Chamber urges an extension of investment incentives
The head of Argentina's mining chamber said Thursday that the flagship investment incentive program for large projects, which currently has a 2027 deadline, should be extended. He argued the program was key to unlocking billions in planned investments. Roberto Cacciola said that the Incentive Regime for Large Investments, or RIGI, has helped to attract capital into the mining sector. The RIGI offers tax, currency, and legal stability advantages for projects valued at more than $200,000,000. Cacciola suggested that the scheme be expanded to include smaller projects which are important in creating jobs and supporting local supply chains. Cacciola told the audience at the Expo San Juan Mining Conference that it would be a mistake not to expand the project. Argentine president Javier Milei announced on X Thursday that he will send to Congress a "Super RIGI law" to promote investments in new sectors. He did not provide any further details. Cacciola stated that Argentina's mining industry is expected to attract about $2 billion of investment this year. This will be led by BHP's $800 millions push into the Vicuna Copper Development with partner Lundin Mining. Many of these investments were?encouraged by RIGI. However, the government has stated that this program is only temporary. Luis Lucero, the mining secretary, recently said that authorities do not plan to extend the deadline for applications. The current deadline is July 2027. Thirteen more projects are being reviewed. Lucero stated that the total submitted and approved projects amounts to more than 50 billion dollars. ELECTORAL RISK Analysts say that companies will likely accelerate their applications in anticipation of Argentina's presidential election in 2027. Marcelo J. Garcia, of Horizon Engage consultancy, said. Cacciola stated that multinational mining companies are already concerned about the continuity of policy. Cacciola said that the parent companies are "naturally" concerned about it. Argentina's economic reforms under Milei have stabilized key indicators, boosted export-oriented industries such as mining and also affected consumption, domestic demand, and real wages. This has impacted the government's reputation. Garcia stated that the interest of investors in Argentina's mining industry remains high. He said, "They are aware that the road will not be straight." They could adjust to a change in conditions, if the overall course of promoting mine development is not changed.
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Oil prices continue to fall as stocks drop on the hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement
U.S. stocks and European shares fell on Thursday, while oil prices dropped again amid optimism about a U.S. Iran peace deal. However, the fate of the Strait of 'Hormuz' remained unclear. Wall Street's major stock indices have retreated from their previous multiple records, despite strong earnings by chipmakers. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite remained unchanged, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%. Sources and officials reported on Thursday that the United States and Iran were moving toward a temporary, limited agreement to end their war. The draft framework would put an end to the fighting, but leave unresolved the most controversial issues. The STOXX Europe 600 index fell by 1.1% after a 2.2% jump on Wednesday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan also hit a new all-time record. Last up 1.6%. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan crossed 62,000 points for the first-time as trading resumed following a long holiday weekend. Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said that while the Middle East situation is uncertain, "the market momentum is moving in a positive direction", and they have taken notice. He said: "The oil price is down from its peak, which relieves pressure on bond yields and yield curves. This is good news for the equity market and causes currencies to move a little bit." Chaar said that a strong earnings season and a macroeconomic climate with a moderate level of robustness contributed to the positive mood in the market. MSCI's All-Country World Index remained stable, but was still near record highs. OIL UNDER $97 A Barrel Brent crude fell about 1%, to $100.39 per barrel after falling nearly 8% Wednesday. Brent oil is still 40% higher than it was in late February, when the conflict started, despite the recent decline. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are surging, a sign of the pressure that energy prices continue to place on the global economic system. The 10-year Treasury yields fell by 1.8 basis point to 4.378% on the day. Nick Twidale said that the market is grappling with execution risk. "Both in terms of whether or not a deal has been finalised, and how quickly disrupted flow would normalize, even if they have." In March, the global market was shook by a spike in oil prices. However, a fragile truce and the prospect of a settlement have fueled a rally that is based on risk. This rally has been fueled since April by strong tech earnings reports. S&P COMPANIES set for ROBUST PROFIT GROWTH S&P 500 companies on track to achieve their highest profit growth in?more than four years. Meanwhile, Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC's dazzling results have reinforced the positive tone in Asia. Manish Kabra wrote in a Thursday client note that "U.S. earnings confirmed a broad profit boom. Record EPS (earnings-per-share) beats, record-high margins, and sharply improved '26 growth expectation." A survey of economists indicates that investors are waiting for the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Report on Friday. The report is expected to show a 62,000 increase in jobs in April after a 178,000 rise in March. The euro was last trading at $1.1759 on the currency markets. The dollar index, which compares the U.S. money to six other currencies, fell a little at 97.98. The yen remains a hot topic after recent spikes prompted speculation on the market that Tokyo intervened in order to support this battered currency. The yen remained unchanged at 156.58 to the dollar after hitting a 10-week-high of 155.
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Sources: Insurgents killed dozens of civilians in central Mali attacks
Three?sources said that Al Qaeda-linked militants attacked two villages central Mali 'on Wednesday night. They killed around 50 people including members of the pro-government self defence forces and civilians. These are the 'deadliest' attacks known since late April, when the al-Qaeda-linked 'group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin' (JNIM), teamed up the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front to launch a coordinated attack across the West African nation. Since then, there have been sporadic clashes. Three sources confirmed that the attackers struck two locations in Mopti, including an aid worker, diplomat, and security source. Residents of Bankass near the localities targeted confirmed the attacks on Wednesday night, but were unable to provide the death toll nor the identities of the perpetrators. The person stated that "unidentified armed men" burst into the village, opened fire, and ransacked it. Uncertainty surrounded the number of civilians killed. Hunters and local self-defence teams, which are often "allied" with the Mali army, protect many villages in this region from militant attacks. A spokesperson from the army of Mali did not respond immediately to a question about?the attacks. MALI ARMY SAYS "THREAT IS PRESENT" The attacks of April 25 demonstrated how different groups, with 'different goals' could attack the 'heart of West Africa’s military government. Djibrilla Maiga, the commander of the Malian army, said during a Bamako press conference on Wednesday that insurgents are trying to regroup after the strikes which killed the Mali defence minister and forced Russian troops aligned with Mali leaders out of the strategic northern city Kidal. Maiga stated that "the threat is still there", but added that military personnel were disrupting the manoeuvres. Last week, JNIM announced that it would try to impose a?blockade on Bamako's capital by setting up checkpoints along the roads leading there. Maiga stated that the insurgents are concentrating on the roads to Kayes, Kita and central Mali. However, other roads, including Segou in central Mali were still passable. Kita is approximately?180 kilometers from Bamako while Kayes is about 580 kilometers away. Maiga, without giving details, said that the military is repositioning units in the north of Mali where FLA fighters have seized Kidal, a town, and Tessalit strategic base. Maiga reported that in addition to killing the Defence Minister Sadio Camara by driving an explosive-laden car into his home, the insurgents also targeted the house of Assimi Gouta, the leader of the 'government which came to power after coups in 2020 and 2021. He said that security forces "contained and defused the vehicle". Goita, who appeared on Mali's state television on the 28th of April, said that the situation is under control. Maiga reported that Malian forces had "neutralised", several hundred "terrorists", since the attacks of April 25, Maiga stated. Reporting by Mali Newsroom, Jessica Donati and Portia Corey Crowe. Writing by Portia Corey Crowe. Editing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Alison Williams.
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European stocks pull back after Mideast peace prospects are assessed
European shares fell on 'Thursday, after a steep rise?in the prior session. Investors analyzed?progress toward a U.S. Iran peace deal which pushed crude oil prices sharply down. STOXX 600, the pan-European index of stocks, ended up 1.1% lower than it was on Wednesday after gaining more than 2%. The majority of regional bourses in France, Germany, and Britain also declined. European energy stocks fell 2.5% when crude oil dropped below $100 per barrel. Shell fell 2.9%, despite exceeding first-quarter profits estimates and increasing its dividend by 5%. Sources and officials reported that oil prices were under pressure when?the U.S. & Iran moved towards a temporary deal to stop their war. Tehran is evaluating a proposal to stop the war but leave unresolved the most controversial issues. Since the start of the conflict, European stocks have lagged behind their global peers. The high energy prices resulting from the disruption in supply following the closing of the Strait?of?Hormuz has fueled inflation fears and hampered growth prospects. Tom Nelson, the head of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions' market strategy, said that there are no signs yet that a lasting peace agreement will be imminent. The path to resolution, if it does materialize, is not likely to be linear. Markets are forward-looking but, in this case, they could be looking through an uncertainty level that is still materially unresolved. Campari's earnings dropped 14.5% as the first-quarter revenue fell short of expectations. Peers Diageo, Pernod Ricard and the 'beverages index' each fell by more than 2%. Defence stocks fell 2.7%. Rheinmetall was down 6.9%. The German group had reported its first-quarter results, and announced that it had made a bid to purchase German Naval Yards Kiel. Siemens Healthineers shares fell 4.7% after the medical technology firm cut its full-year forecast, citing structural change in the Chinese market as well as higher inflation expectations. Henkel, the maker of Persil, rose 3.3% following a first-quarter?sales forecast. The European Central Bank stated in a recent report that, on the macro level, financial integration in the euro zone has progressed steadily in the past few years, but equity markets are still fragmented. Reporting by Twesha Dikhshit and Avinash. Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Sonia Cheema. Mark Potter.
Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to traders, analysts and exchange data, there were a series of market bets that totalled up to $7 billion in March and April, spread over multiple exchanges and types of fuels and derivatives, just before Donald Trump made major announcements about Iran policy.
This is a size that exceeds the $2.6 billion in reported wagers, which has already caused the U.S. The administration warned staff not to use nonpublic information in order to gain financial advantage. A person with knowledge of the matter said in April that the U.S. Commodity?Trading?? Commission (CFTC) was investigating. However, the CFTC is yet to confirm a formal investigation is underway.
They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America or elsewhere. The bets included short positions or bets on falling prices for derivatives such as ICE, CME, crude, diesel, and gasoline futures.
Bets were placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, two major exchanges which host benchmark futures trading for global oil and fuels. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades.
Legal experts and legislators have called for the regulator to investigate whether these well-timed transactions were based on leaks or inside information.
On March 23, traders spotted the first unusual trades. The trades were made just minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure. This triggered a fall in oil prices.
On April 7, Trump announced a truce with Iran, which triggered a drop of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. On April 17, Trump and Iranian officials discussed reopening Strait of Hormuz. Then, on April 21, Trump extended the ceasefire.
Other media reported on?those tradings on the two most active front-month contracts of the global benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Initial calculations put the value of these bets at $2.6 billion for those four days between March and April.
Requests for comment from the U.S. Justice Department and White House were not immediately answered.
A further analysis of the trading data for exchanges and contracts revealed that traders placed similar bets on the exact same dates and at the exact same times for European Diesel and U.S. Gasoline Futures, as well as for longer-dated 'contracts for Brent or WTI. This brings the total up to about $7 billion, according to calculations.
Short selling or a sell bet is when the person who executes the trade borrows a derivative from the counterparty and sells it, then buys it cheaper later, when the price drops, while keeping the profit.
The oil price dropped by more than 10% on March 23, April 7, 17, and 21. Calculations show that, depending on when the bets were made, a $7 billion short seller could have made millions in profit.
Adi Imsirovic from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and an experienced oil trader, says that these trades appear "well-informed" because they were made before major announcements. He added that U.S. authorities such as the CFTC can access exchange data in order to track who made the trades, and to investigate if they choose to.
ABC reported on Thursday that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating $2.6 billion worth of?oil trading related to the Iran War. The DOJ did not respond to requests for comment.
In March, the CFTC's Enforcement Director said that his agency was "watching" speculation about insider trading on CFTC-regulated market.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Let's stick to the facts. The volume was unusual. The volumes were unusually high. They were in advance of important announcements", said Jorge Montepeque, from Onyx Capital Group. He?helped to design the modern system for setting oil prices by Platts pricing agency in the 1990s.
Brent crude, low-sulphur gasoline, and West Texas Intermediate crude are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. West Texas Intermediate crude, and gasoline futures, however, are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), which is owned by CME Group.
Trump announced at 1105 GMT on March 23 that he would delay the threatened attack against Iranian power infrastructure. LSEG data indicates that traders bet on 20,000 Brent and WTI contracts between 1049 and1050 GMT. The sales were spread over the first,'second and third-month contracts worth about $1.35 billion. In addition, $122 million was spent on ICE Gasoil - Diesel - Futures, and $81 million in U.S. gas futures, totaling $2.2 billion.
Robert Frenchman is a New York lawyer who has worked in white-collar crimes and insider trading cases.
Trump's ceasefire announcement on March 23 triggered a drop in crude futures as high as 15%. This was one of the biggest intraday drops ever recorded. The announcement also sent gasoline and gasoil prices down by around 12%.
Between 1944 and 1945 GMT on April 7, there were 2,12 billion dollars worth of sell orders for oil and gasoline. This was well after the market had settled and at a time where volumes are typically low. Trump announced minutes later a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran.
Nearly $2 billion worth of Brent, WTI and gasoil futures, as well as gasoline, were sold on April 17 at 1224-1225 GMT. This was just minutes before Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi announced that Hormuz will reopen. Trump and U.S. officials then posted multiple posts to social media. On April 21, about $830 million in Brent and WTI futures contracts were sold only 15 minutes before Trump extended his ceasefire. (Editing by David Gregorio and Simon Webb; Additional reporting by Alun Price, Alex Lawler, and Robert Harvey in London as well as Michelle Price in Washington.
(source: Reuters)