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Brent crude sets record monthly increase after stocks plunge in Asia

Investors in Asia lowered their expectations for the Gulf conflict, which is already causing oil prices to rise at a record rate. This will lead to a surge in inflation and an increase in recession risk for much of the world.

According to the 'Financial Times', Donald Trump said that the U.S. might'seize the?Kharg Island, in the Persian Gulf from where Iran exports most of its oil. But he also suggested that a ceasefire would be imminent.

Pakistan has said that it is preparing "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the conflict with Iran, despite Tehran's earlier accusation of Washington preparing an assault on the land as the U.S. military sent more troops into the region.

Yemen's Houthis, who are also Iran-aligned, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict.

Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy, food, and agricultural markets as well as its missile and drone capabilities are not enough to encourage it to give in, forcing the U.S. into escalation.

We expect the conflict to last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer one.

Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait, along with prices for plastics, aluminium, and planes. Food, pharmaceuticals and other petrochemical products will all see their prices rise.

This is a bad thing for Asia as a large part of the region relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy. Japan's Nikkei lost another 4.7% bringing March losses to almost 14%.

South Korea's stock market dropped 4.2% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.2%.

S&P futures dropped 0.9%, while Nasdaq's futures declined 0.7%. EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all fell 1.5% in Europe.

Brent crude climbed 3.0% to $115.98 per barrel, topping the gains made by Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52, a rise of 53% for the month.

Bruce Kasman warned that the longer the Strait remains shut, the more the buffer supply will be reduced, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, gas, and other commodities.

The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and constraints on energy consumption by industrial consumers.

As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus.

Investors have revised up their expectations for interest rates in almost all countries due to the inflationary threat. The markets now expect the Federal Reserve to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year compared to 50 basis points a month earlier.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a later event on Monday. John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed will also be speaking.

This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give an update on the?state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in march, maintaining unemployment at 4.4%.

The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday showing that annual inflation jumped to 2.7% from 1.9% in March, but core prices should remain stable.

Energy shocks, coupled with increased borrowing costs, and the need to increase defence spending have slammed sovereign bond markets.

The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds are up 47 basis points this month, at 4.428%. Two-year yields also have increased 54 basis points.

The U.S. Dollar has been favored by increased volatility on the markets as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States has a comparative advantage over Europe and much of Asia because it is also a net exporter of energy.

The dollar held at 160.12yen after last week crossing the 160 barrier for first time since July 20,24, when Japan intervened last to support the currency.

The euro was stuck around $1.15, just a little bit above the low of March at $1.1409.

Gold was down by 1.0% on commodity markets at $4,445 per ounce, despite the fact that it is not widely regarded as a safe-haven, or a hedge to inflation risks. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Muralikumar Aantharaman, and Wayne Cole)

(source: Reuters)