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Ukraine steel production capacity down 81% from 2014 when Russian offensive began, says union
The national steelmakers union reported on Tuesday that Ukraine's nominal capacity for steel production has dropped to 8 million tons per year, from 42,5 million tons before Russia's occupation of eastern Ukrainian regions in '2013. The majority of these steel mills were either destroyed or occupied by Russia during the war. Ukraine exports mainly consist of steel and metallurgical products, along with?iron ores and agricultural commodities. According to a Ukrainian GMK Center report, "due to the continuing hostilities, rising fuel prices, and electricity shortages, the monthly steel production in 2026 will be 'unlikely' to exceed 600,000. In the first two months of this year, the union reported that Ukrainian steel production fell 13.2% compared to the previous year. Ukraine, once a major?steel exporter and producer, reported a 70.7% decline in 'output' to 6.3 millions tons by 2022. The output fell to 6,000,000 tons in '2023, 7.58,000,000 tons in '2024, and 7.41,000,000 tons in '2025. This?month, the largest remaining steelworks in Ukraine, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih announced that it would shut?two rollingmills, citing an energy crisis brought on by Russian strikes, and the costs of European Union requirements for environmental protection. (Reporting from Pavel Polityuk).
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Russia abandons plan to reduce oil price budget rule in this year
Vladimir Kolychev, the deputy finance minister, was quoted as saying that Russia had halted its plans to lower the oil price threshold for adding money to a reserve fund. He suggested recent price increases are already boosting the fund. Russia had already signaled that it would lower the oil cut-off prices, the level at which additional oil revenues are paid to a fund from which government deficits can be covered. But that was before the Iran War sent oil prices skyrocketing. "The issue is not being considered for the current fiscal year." The Ministry of Finance has no such proposals. Russian news agencies reported that Kolychev said, "At the moment, we are discussing changes for next year and beyond." The cut-off is $59 per barrel. This is well below the current market level of around $100 per barrel. It means that reserves are being replenished with no policy changes. The comments made on Tuesday confirm an earlier report that said the government would delay lowering the price cut-off. On February 25, just three days before war began, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that changes would be made to the cut-off prices within two weeks. Kolychev stated that the adjustment was still required in the medium-term. He said that the threshold should 'correspond to a level of reserves, and when reserves are low be set at lower levels of a range of scenarios. As of March 1, the liquid assets of the fund stood at $52 billion. Many analysts had warned that the fund would be drained within a year. Kolychev has also denied that there will be any cuts to the budget for this year, adding that the government is always striving to spend as efficiently as possible. (Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya. Gleb Brynski wrote the article. Alison Williams, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (editing)
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Investors placed $500 million in bets on the oil price before Trump's tweet about delaying Iran attack
Only 15 minutes before the U.S. The market plunged after President Donald Trump announced that the attacks on Iran's infrastructure would be delayed by five days. Trump's Truth Social post at 1105 GMT Monday, which gave Iran a deadline of Monday to reopen Strait of Hormuz and face the "obliteration" of its power plants, triggered a massive selloff of oil and natural gases. Brent crude dropped as much as 15 percent in just a few minutes after Trump said constructive talks were underway between Washington and Tehran. This prompted investors to price-in the possibility of deescalation, which could free up the millions of barrels currently clogged in the Gulf. LSEG data show that traders bet on 5,100 Brent and WTI futures worth over $500 million between 1049 and1050 GMT. Data also shows that selling dominated the volume in the minute when these contracts were exchanged. It was impossible to determine who traded oil. 13 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL TRANSACTIONS IN 60 SECONDS, AT 1105 GMT Brent futures volume spiked by 2,000 lots at this point, a much larger increase than earlier in the day. The volume was dwarfed, however, by the subsequent post from Trump. In 60 seconds, at 1105 GMT, over 13,000 lots Brent and WTI futures were traded, which is equivalent to 13,000,000 barrels of crude oil. Brent crude fell from $112 to about $99 before pre-announcement trading took place. WTI dropped from $99 to around $86 prior to Trump posting. Intercontinental Exchange (where Brent crude is traded) and CME Group (which owns NYMEX, where WTI is traded) did not respond immediately to requests for comments. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission refused to comment. White House did not respond either to a comment request. Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not respond to a request for comment immediately. OIL PRICES?UP MORE THEN 40%?FROM PRE CONFLICT LEVELS Despite the fact that a fifth or more of the daily supply in the Middle East has been cut off due to the war, the prices are still higher than when the conflict began late February. The trading volume and volatility has exploded. In the three years prior to the war on average, around 300,000 Brent crude futures were traded daily. The daily volume has reached record highs of over 1 million lots, which is equal to one billion barrels?of oil. Brent oil is currently trading at just under $104 because of the uncertainty over the impact on the global economy and the status negotiations. Iran has denied that it is in talks with the U.S.
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Schindler CEO ready to oppose possible Kone-TK Elevator Merger
Schindler's head, who is Swiss, told? The head of the Swiss lift maker told? Bloomberg News reported last week that TK Elevator, a subsidiary of?Finland?s?Kone?was in negotiations to purchase TK Elevator? (TKE), citing people familiar with the situation. The merger would make Schindler the second largest lift manufacturer in the world, surpassing OTIS. Schindler CEO Paolo Compagna stated that the deal would be a 'bloodbath' bound to disrupt industry as the third- and fourth-largest manufacturers of lifts would have to integrate overlapping customer bases and production sites, and also?teams. Compagna stated in the interview that she was sure that they would not be alone in checking that antitrust laws are being followed in all countries. Kone and TKE initially did not respond to initial requests for comments. The same position as in 2019 Compagna reported that Schindler has held the same position since 2019, when the idea of a merger first emerged, with Kone's bid for TKE. Advent International and Cinven - the current owners of TKE - made a bid for around 19.9 billion euros (17.2 billion euros) in 2019. Compagna stated that the current environment is even more challenging today than it was in 2019. Bloomberg reported that a possible deal value could be as high as 25 billion euros. Compagna said that a possible merger could take several years, and would?probably require many?divestitures. If a deal proceeds that far, Schindler will consider buying any divested businesses as part of its bolt on acquisition strategy.
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Rubio testifies in the Venezuelan foreign agent case of an ex-congressman
On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified in the criminal trial of former U.S. David Rivera is facing criminal charges for acting as an agent unregistered of the government of Venezuelan ex-President Nicolas Maduro. Rubio's testimonies have taken him from Washington, where he was engaged in high level diplomacy surrounding U.S. president Donald Trump's Iran war, to the federal courthouse downtown Miami, where his political career started. When asked by prosecutor Harold Schimkat if Rubio was employed, Rubio replied, "Yeah. I have two jobs." U.S. prosecutors claim that Rivera, who represented southern Florida as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives between 2011 and 2013, lobbied U.S. lawmakers in 2017 to ease pressure on Maduro, without disclosing he had been paid $20 million by the subsidiary of a Venezuelan government-owned company. This is a violation of Foreign Agents Registration Act. Rubio, Rivera's former roommate who was then a U.S. Senator for Florida, is among the politicians that both prosecutors and Rivera’s defense attorneys claim he met at the time. Both Rubio and Rivera, both Cuban Americans who are Republicans, have been vocal critics of the left-wing governments of Cuba and Venezuela. RIVERA SAYS THAT HE TRYED TO HELP VENEZUELAN Opposition The prosecution claims that Rivera met twice with Rubio in 2017 to promote a negotiated resolution to the escalating tensions between the United States and Maduro without disclosing Venezuela's indirect payment. Roger Cruz, the prosecutor who made Monday's opening statement, said that David Rivera would never have sat with his friend if he had known that he was working secretly for Venezuela. Rivera has entered a not guilty plea to the charges of money laundering and acting as an unregistered "foreign agent". Edward Shohat said that in his opening remarks, he had been trying to 'help the Venezuelan opposition remove Maduro from power. Shohat stated that Rivera's interaction with Rubio was separate from his contract at Citgo Petroleum. Citgo Petroleum is a U.S.-based subsidiary of Venezuela's?oil firm. He claimed that Rivera's Citgo work was purely business and not political, so he didn't have to register with the Foreign Agents Registry. Shohat stated that "David Rivera did not have any reason to inform Rubio of this contract." Shohat stated that both Rivera's?meetings?with Rubio were about working with Venezuelan opposition. Trump increased financial sanctions against Venezuela during his first tenure, despite the alleged lobbying efforts. U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro during a raid in Caracas on January 3, and brought him to New York, where he will be charged with drug trafficking. He has pleaded innocent. Reporting by Luc Cohen, Miami Editing Rod Nickel
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Copper drops after Iran denies talks for ending war and attacks Israel
London copper fell on Tuesday after Iran denied holding talks with the U.S. about ending the Middle East war and launched new missile attacks against Israel. In official open outcry, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange fell 1.6% to $11,974 per metric tonne. Metal prices rose 2% after U.S. president Donald Trump said that he had "very productive" talks with Tehran, and had postponed the threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. EwaManthey, ING commodities strategist, said: "Copper has eased today following yesterday's rebound as geopolitical confidence faded." The rise in oil prices and the strengthening dollar have added pressure to industrial metals, as central banks are less likely to be able to reduce rates, and higher fuel costs will stifle global growth. Citi expects the price of copper to drop to $11,000 per ton over the next three month, down from $14,000. The bank stated that "we expect industrial metals will grind lower as long as the Hormuz Strait is closed. Investors discount Fed rate reductions and cyclical expectations of growth and continue to de-risk risk assets." Copper stocks on the LME are at an elevated level Prices were also affected by the high volume of 359,275 tonnes, the highest since almost eight years. On Monday, another 11,800 tonnes of imports were recorded. More than half of these entered LME's warehouses in Kaohsiung , exchange data showed ?on Tuesday. The spread between the LME cash copper contract and three-month forward The price of iron ore is still at a steep downward trend, hovering around $92 per ton. Manthey said that renewed buying interest in the top consumer China, where copper exchange stocks fell by?5.2% on last week's trading day, "helps to limit the downside". Aluminum was the only base metal that rose, increasing 0.6% to $3.217 per ton, on concerns about supplies from Gulf smelters. Lead fell 0.5%, zinc 0.8%, nickel 0.6%, and tin 0.1%. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Jan Harvey;
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EU defers April 15 proposal of permanent ban on Russian oil imports
A revised EU legislative agenda revealed on Tuesday that the 'European Commission' will not submit its?legal? proposal to ban Russian oil imports permanently due to Moscow’s war in Ukraine as planned on April 15. A spokesperson for the EU said that the proposal was not cancelled, but would no longer be published by mid-April due to the "current geopolitical developments". According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused the largest oil supply disruptions in history. This has sent global crude prices soaring. The proposal would put into law the complete phase-out of?Russian oil imports no later than 2027. The European Union already legislated the phase-out of Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. If sanctions against Russia are lifted, the proposal would keep the ban in place. The measure will have little impact on the 'physical supply,' since the EU is only importing 1% of their oil from Russia in the last quarter of 2025. This was after the EU has reduced its imports following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Brussels wants to include a phase-out of Russian crude oil in legislation, which would continue to be in force even if the EU lifted sanctions following a peace agreement in the Ukraine?war. EU sanctions against seaborne Russian crude oil have eliminated the majority of imports. By January 27, Hungary and Slovakia were still the only two EU countries importing Russian crude oil. Kyiv claimed that a Russian drone attack had hit pipeline equipment in Ukraine disrupting Russian oil deliveries. Budapest and Bratislava accuse Ukraine of intentionally delaying the return of oil shipments. This has triggered a political dispute, which saw Hungary block an EU loan to Kyiv. The original April 15 date was chosen because it would have been three days after the Hungarian parliamentary elections. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is opposed to any ban. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said in a statement this month that a return to Russian energy was "a strategic mistake" and would make Europe more susceptible. (Reporting and editing by Inti landauro, Joe Bavier, and Kate Abnett)
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Ireland reduces fuel duty with 250 million Euro energy package
Ireland will reduce excise duties on fuels up until the end of May, as part of a 290 million euro package to cushion the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Prices at some Irish service station have risen above 2 euros per unleaded litre, a price last seen in 2022 when the Ukraine conflict began. The government announced that the reduction in excise tax of 15 cents per litre on petrol and 20 cents for diesel would take effect at midnight on Tuesday. Micheal Mart, Prime Minister of Canada, said at a press conference held on Tuesday that these measures were "targeted" and "temporary", but would be reviewed based on the market's development. The government will also pause for two months the National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA), which will lower the price of home heating oil and motoring fuel by two cents each litre. However, this will require additional legislation. The levy is used to fund the agency, which is responsible for maintaining Ireland's strategic oil supplies. The heating payments for social welfare recipients are to be extended by four weeks. A rebate program for hauliers will also be improved. Simon Harris, Finance Minister of the United Kingdom, said on Sunday that the government will limit the initial package in order to allow for additional?help should the energy crisis persist. The European Commission has suggested that member states reduce their national fuel taxes to curb the rising energy prices. Italy has temporarily reduced?excise duty, while Spain proposed on Friday wider measures, worth 5 billion Euros, including reductions of fuel prices and electric bills.
Oil rebounds as the glimmering relief from the Iran war fades.
On Tuesday, world stocks made modest gains while oil prices remained above $100 per barrel. This was due to caution after U.S. president Donald?Trump postponed the bombing of Iran’s?power grid.
U.S. Treasury Yields increased and the dollar regained ground in a retracement of a rally that swept the markets overnight, after Trump extended his Saturday ultimatum to Iran for it to reopen Strait of Hormuz by 48 hours. Trump cited "productive" discussions Tehran.
Iran fired waves of missiles towards Israel on Tuesday. This kept the markets on edge. Oil last traded at $101.5 per barrel after a 15% drop on Monday.
Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "markets are balancing fragile hope for a possible truce with the reality of persistent conflict, and tightening of financial conditions."
U.S. Stock Futures were a little lower on the day, indicating a slight pullback after Monday's gains.
Europe's STOXX600 was down just 0.1% after earlier gains. Shares in Asia finished firmly "in the green" despite being below their day's highest.
The MSCI World Stock Index was 0.3% higher than the previous day but still 7% below its February record highs.
Oil prices were expected to remain high as the war continued and the Strait of Hormuz was still closed for shipments of a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas.
The growth of the private sector in the Eurozone almost stalled last month, as inflation expectations soared and delivery times increased. This is further evidence that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has already had a significant impact on the region, according to data released Tuesday.
Thomas Mathews is the head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics.
DOLLAR PARES LOSSES, YIELDS RISE
The U.S. Treasury yields increased on Tuesday, after a steep fall overnight. Little clarity about an end to this conflict has left traders pricing in more hawkish interest rate outlooks globally.
The benchmark 10-year rate was up by 3 basis points at 4.36%.
Investors have abandoned hopes for a further monetary ease globally in favor of a price hike across the majority of developed nations.
Futures indicate a slight chance of an increase, and traders are pricing in a rate hike from the Bank of England or European Central Bank.
Kit Juckes is the head of Societe Generale's FX strategy.
The dollar recovered from its Monday lows and the euro fell by almost 0.2% to $1.1594. The pound fell 0.3% to $1.34.
Spot gold remained stable at around $4,400 per ounce. Prior to Trump's announcement, gold had been trading at a four-month low below $4,100 on the expectation of longer-term increases in U.S. interest rates.
(source: Reuters)