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Morning Bid America-Another Day, Another AI mood swing

By Mike Dolan

February 25th -

What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets

Tuesday, software stocks staged a rally that was strangely driven by what has been dragging them down over the last month: the release of new plug-ins developed by AI lab Anthropic. The market was more focused on the partnership between these companies and Anthropic this time, than the existential threat AI could pose.

Below, I will discuss this and more. Check out my latest article on why AI isn’t the?only? thing driving global economic growth. Listen to the most recent episode of Morning Bid, the daily podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

Another day, another AI mood swing. While many software stocks were able to enjoy a good day yesterday, those affected by Anthropic’s new tools had a less favorable outcome. Workday, a HR software company, fell 10% over night. A downbeat revenue outlook was exacerbated by the fact the new Anthropic gizmo targets HR tasks. The broader recovery may not be enough to address the viral stories that claim white collar workers will disappear, but it suggests that many of these businesses may survive and prosper with AI. It is at least a reminder to rethink the recent selloffs in several sectors, and perhaps a nod towards today's big news - Nvidia results.

After the bell, the world's most valued company will report its results. Despite all the ifs, ands, about AI, it's clear that a torrent of capital expenditures is being allocated to chips, computing hardware and bricks-and?mortar data centers, as well as the energy required to power them. The chip giant will forecast a 64% increase in revenue for the first quarter, which is estimated to be $72 billion. Nvidia faces increasing competition, including Alphabet, AMD, and the standard to be met is always rising. The Chinese market may also be a focus, given the recent fluctuations in government restrictions on its top-end chips. Options markets are braced for an earnings swing of up to 5%, even though Nvidia's shares have only been?up by 2% this year. This is because the market cap of Nvidia has risen to $230 billion. Futures rose ahead of the bell today after Tuesday's 0.77% increase in the S&P. Asia's shares soared on Wednesday, as investors focused on the impact of AI capex on companies that are building infrastructure.

South Korea's Kospi, which is the benchmark for South Korea, has already risen by 45% this year. The Nikkei, on the other hand, gained 2.2%. The Japanese stock market was helped by a further fall in the yen, which reached its lowest level in two weeks. This came after the news that the nominees of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi for two Bank of Japan Board positions were viewed as'reflationists.' The yuan, meanwhile, strengthened to near three-year levels against the dollar after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China for the second time this year. Over the last month, the offshore yuan is up 3%. The State of the Union address by President Trump on Tuesday was largely a general one, with few specific market implications. However, the AI theme did make its way into the speech when Trump said that Big Tech must build their data centers' own power plants. Trump is clearly aware of the impact on electricity prices for households due to the increased demand. Trump has also promised to give $1,000 to Americans who do not have 401k retirement plans next year. This money will likely go directly into the stock market.

Chart of the Day

Analysts expect Nvidia's first-quarter revenue to show a 64% increase to $72 billion.

Nvidia has exceeded sales expectations in the last 13 quarters. However, the size of these beats have shrunk as the competition for AI chips has increased and the bar is being raised. Nvidia stock is up about 2% so far in 2026 after powering the U.S. market rally over the past three years.

Watch today's events

* U.S. Corporate earnings: NVIDIA (NVIDIA), Lowe's (Lowe's), Salesforce, Zoom

* ?U.S. 5-year note auction

Thomas Barkin of the Richmond Fed, Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas Fed, and Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed, all speak

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(source: Reuters)