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As US launches new attacks against Iran and supply tightens, oil prices rise by almost 1%
The oil prices rose about 1% Wednesday after the U.S. military launched a new strike against Iran, and market data revealed another large drawdown in U.S. crude stock. After President Donald Trump promised on Tuesday that he would respond to the downing overnight of a U.S. Apache helicopter, there was a new escalation which threatens to unravel a fragile truce between Washington and Tehran. Brent futures rose 83c, or 0.9%, to $92.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), climbed 68c, or 0.8% to $88.97. Brent closed at its lowest level on Tuesday since April 17 while WTI was at its weakest level since May 29, after Trump's call for Israel and Iran to cease direct attacks against each other. Tehran has said that it will resume hostilities in the event that?Israel continues to attack Hezbollah's?militia?in Lebanon. Israel's refusal of ending its campaign against Iran's Hezbollah hampered Trump's attempts to turn a fragile ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli War with Iran into a lasting settlement. Tehran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz which carries about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas in the world. Washington has also imposed a blockade on Iranian ports. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that the?oil and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing, even though Washington and 'Tehran are struggling to reach a deal regarding the end of their three-month war. According to sources, the American Petroleum Institute released data on Tuesday that showed that U.S. crude inventories had fallen for the eighth consecutive week. Gasoline stocks were also down. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that crude stocks dropped by 9.12 million barrels during the week ending June 5. Gasoline inventories also fell by 1.19 million barrels. The United States was a marginal crude and product supplier during the war, and increased exports to Asia. A drop in U.S. stocks could harm exports and increase prices. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Karen Braun: The role of China in US agriculture has changed.
Last month, the prospect of renewed Chinese interest in U.S. agricultural products sparked excitement on grain markets. However, enthusiasm has waned and no immediate purchases have materialized. It was not surprising that the initial reaction to the?bullish news was so positive. China is the main driver of growth in U.S. Agriculture, driving record soybean exports and grain prices, as well as emerging to be a major buyer for everything from beef to corn. The trade agreement signed last month included at least $17 Billion in 'U.S. The Chinese government's recent announcement of additional agricultural purchases, beyond the existing soybean deals revived hopes for China to become again a?leading driver?of growth in American farm exports. The dynamics have changed due to years of tensions in the trade and the rise of South America. China's importance to U.S. agricultural production remains high, but its contribution varies depending on the commodity. SOYBEANS: China left the U.S. market, not the soybeans China's dependence upon U.S. soyabeans has declined dramatically over the past few years, but its influence on the global soybean markets has not. Since nearly two decades, the Asian buyers' share of global imports remains relatively stable at around 60%. Chinese purchases of U.S. soya beans have dropped sharply from record levels earlier in this decade, as Brazil increased production and exported more. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. soybean volume exported to China in 2025/26, which ends August 31, will fall by almost 50% compared to last year. This is a 19-year record low. Industry estimates show that by the end May, China had met more than 90% its needs for 2025/26. This pace is on par with last years', thanks to an increase in South American purchases. Recent trade agreements suggest that U.S. soyabean exports to China may double in 2026/27. However, the overall picture of soybean exports is not as rosy. The USDA projections indicate that U.S. soyabean exports to other countries would drop to a low of 13 years in 2026/27 if China's assumed share is excluded. This could be because forced demand from one partner can impact the demand for the other partners. CORN: HEALTHIER IF CHINA IS NOT INCLUDED? U.S. exports of corn are a completely different story. Chinese purchases accounted for nearly one-third (2020/21) of U.S. Corn shipments, helping to boost U.S. Corn exports that year to a new record 2,75 billion bushels. Many at the time viewed China's role in export growth as crucial. This record was broken without Chinese involvement in 2024/25, and 2025/26 is expected to see shipments reach another high of 3,3?billion bushels without Chinese participation. Mexico, a reliable and long-term buyer, is the reason for this increase in demand. USDA's forecast shows that a greater share of corn will be exported in 2026/27 than it did in 2020/21. However, there is little evidence to suggest that China has made significant purchases. This doesn't mean that the Chinese demand is no longer important or that it would not have positive market implications. If China were to return as a major buyer of corn, would the total U.S. exports increase further or would higher prices displace existing demand as it appears to be happening for soybeans. BEEF: TRADE DEAL WEAKNESSES EXPOSED Beef is a product that falls between corn and soybeans, but presents different tradeoffs. China was a major customer of U.S. beef importers just a few short years ago. U.S. officials want to regain that business after the recent trade agreement. The beef prices in the United States have hit record highs and the cattle herd is at a low not seen for 75 years. U.S. officials highlighted China's appetites for lesser-valued cuts and variety meats, suggesting Chinese consumers buy products Americans don't consume as often. This portrayal is incomplete and leaves out important details. In the past, U.S. exports of beef to China were largely products that overlapped heavily with domestic consumption. This is similar to other major U.S. buyers of beef. China is a major buyer of U.S. cuts and offal. Even if the Chinese demand for lower-valued cuts benefits U.S. ranchers, it also risks intensifying competition for already limited supplies. Ranchers are also at risk of intensifying the competition for limited supplies. It may be worth examining the idea that beef exports to China could increase without impacting on the domestic market. NEW MARKET, OLD THINKING? Soybeans and corn, as well as beef, help explain why China’s role in U.S. Agriculture cannot be defined with a single narrative. However, the grain markets react to Chinese purchases as if they were uniform in all sectors. Even though purchase commitments are not a guarantee, they can still cause sharp movements in futures and speculative positions. The 'prospect of a renewed Chinese purchasing helped push speculators combined positions in U.S. grain and oilseeds at record bullish levels. This was a logical reaction: a stronger Chinese economy has usually led to better prospects for U.S. agricultural production for the last two decades. Now, however, the impact is less clear. China will continue to affect markets, but it is not the most important factor. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Musk's xAI and SpaceX are the targets of a class action lawsuit over 'nuisance data centers'
Residents of Mississippi have sued Elon Musk’s xAI, SpaceX and xAI for allegedly causing "omnipresent" and "inescapable noise" that has eroded the value and health of their homes and homes. The 'lawsuit', which was made public in Federal Court in Oxford, Mississippi on Tuesday, alleges that Musk’s companies were negligent in failing to stop the disturbance, and creating a public nuisance by excessive and offensive sound. Three residents brought the lawsuit on behalf of an estimated class size of more than 10,000 people. The lawsuit claimed that the artificial intelligence boom was causing havoc in communities "across the United States", by subjecting thousands to constant noise and vibrations. Plaintiffs seek damages for emotional distress, property value reduction, and other harms as well as the disgorgement an unspecified amount of profits. xAI and 'SpaceX didn't immediately?respond to requests for comments. MZX Tech, a subsidiary of xAI, was also listed as a defendant. Musk is not a plaintiff. In a statement Robert Wiygul said that "our homes are supposed be a sanctuary against the world" but when they "are invaded by sound 24 hours a days, it takes away the fundamental peace of a decent and good life from us." xAI spent more than $20 billion on the construction of the plant in Southaven, with the support of Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves. The lawsuit claimed that gas-fired Turbines in Southaven are powering data centers around Southaven. In April, the NAACP sued xAI? over the plant and the centers. The company was accused of violating U.S. Environmental Rules. The lawsuit is still pending. The?U.S. The?U.S. Justice Department indicated in a?court filing last month that it?may interfere in the NAACP Case, stating the dispute raises questions about the role of government in AI infrastructure. (Reporting and editing by David Bario, Bill Berkrot, and Mike Scarcella)
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As the war in Iran drags on, rising fuel prices are hitting US farms.
Energy costs are squeezing soybean and grain growers in the U.S. Farm Belt as the Iran War chokes fuel supply through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices to record highs. Farmers were already under pressure and faced a fourth consecutive year of shrinking margins due to a resurgent dry spell, high input costs, and the fallout from President Donald Trump's policies on trade, which has impacted crop prices. Diesel prices in the Midwest, America’s main corn- and soybean-producing region rose to record highs as a result of the conflict in May. This was just as farmers were ramping up spring fieldwork and planting. Wisconsin diesel reached $5.873 a gallon in mid-May, Indiana $6.167 and Illinois $6.14. According to the data of the AAA, Ohio and Michigan have also set records. Since the Middle East conflict started, the national average diesel has increased by more than 40%. The global crude oil price, which is the basis for diesel and gasoline, has risen by about 30% since late February. Diesel is used to power equipment on farms in the U.S. for a variety of field operations. From spraying pesticides, planting seeds, and fertilizing fields, to harvesting and harvesting crops. Most U.S. farming machinery is designed to run solely on diesel. This leaves farmers exposed to the volatility of diesel prices. "It is a very expensive cost," said Glenn Brunkow who raises cattle and soybeans in Wamego. We can't do much about it and didn't budget for it. We were surprised by the suddenness of it. Ben Klieve of Benchmark Analysis, citing University of Illinois estimates, stated that fuel-related costs accounted for 3% to 4 % or $16 to $ 23 per acre on average, prior to the war. Klieve stated that if diesel prices remain at the current level, fuel costs for row-crop farmers could increase to between 5% and 6% of their total input costs. This would mean a jump from $20 per acre to $30 per acre. He said that row-crop farmers are facing a difficult situation. The prices of grain they produce have dropped sharply over the past few weeks, and are even lower than the levels before the Iran war. However, input costs such as diesel and fertilizer are still significantly higher. This is affecting their bottom line. FARMERS BEAR LOSSES Tom Murphy, a corn and soybean farmer in northwest Indiana, said that he had delayed plans to turn the soil on fields he recently rented because he didn't want to waste fuel operating his machinery. Murphy planned to level five fields before prices spiked to make it easier to use equipment to spray and harvest crops. He only tilled a single field to save 6,000 gallons (of farm diesel) he purchased in December. The fields will be used to grow crops but will not look as he had hoped. Murphy, who doesn't till many of his fields, said, "We will leave them a bit rough this year and fix next year." Murphy stated in late May that there were still 2,500 gallons of water in his storage room from December. He would have to purchase more in order to maintain the crops during the summer growing season. Don Bloss is a grain and soy bean grower from Pawnee City in Nebraska. He said that he paid higher rates to truckers for the 80-mile haul of corn to market. Bloss told Bloss, "You have to continue writing checks." "We are at the mercy of everyone else." More pain may be on the way Fuel prices could rise even more if the Iran War continues to choke off global fuel supplies. Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, which is a vital passageway for almost a fifth of all global oil flows, the demand for U.S. Petroleum Products has been high. The domestic supply cushion, which helps to keep gasoline and diesel prices under control, could shrink further if exports remain at record levels as we head into summer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, distillate fuel oil stocks in the United States fell to a 23 year low in May. The distillate stocks of the United States, which include diesel and heating oils, dropped by 2.1 millions barrels during the week ending May 22. This is the lowest level since May 2003. Patrick De Haan is the head of GasBuddy's petroleum analysis. He said that there are still many uncertainties surrounding a possible deal between Iran and the United States. De Haan stated that any setbacks in the negotiations could reverse the recent drop in fuel prices. Reporting by Nicole Jao and Tom Polansek, both in New York; editing by Liz Hampton and Nick Zieminski.
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Oil prices fall amid uncertainty in the Middle East, while stocks lose steam
MSCI's global equity index lost ground Tuesday, as investors chose safer bets and heavyweight U.S. tech stocks tumbled. Oil prices also fell as Middle East updates were vague on the progress of peace. Iran and Israel had raised hopes for a reduction in tensions on Monday when they announced that they would cease to attack each other. U.S. president Donald Trump'said'?on?Tuesday that Iran had shot down a U.S. Apache helo that was patrolling Strait of Hormuz over night and vowed?to respond without providing any details. Israel had attacked the historic port of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, on Tuesday and killed at least eight people. Tehran warned on Monday it would resume hostilities in the event that Israel continued its attacks against Hezbollah, its Lebanon-based ally. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that oil stocks in the largest economies of the world were heading towards their lowest level since 2003. EIA said that it now expects the global oil demand in 2026 to decrease, contrary to its previous forecast of an increase. Wall Street's major indexes began to lose ground, and the S&P 500 technology sector fell sharply. Sahak Manuelian said that investors are selling technology stocks and moving into more defensive sectors like real estate, utilities, and healthcare. Manuelian said, "Today, we tried to rally, but it was very, short-lived." He added that investors were selling stocks which had gained a great deal and preparing themselves for the highly anticipated SpaceX market debut later this week. Investors are assessing their portfolios to see how tech has changed and also preparing for the SpaceX IPO scheduled for Friday. They will probably need to set aside some money for that. He said that they are trying to make some money off of other investments which have risen so quickly in a short time. They may also be looking for other areas of the market where they can pursue alpha. Worries about inflation and rate Gene Goldman is chief investment officer of Cetera and he sees the release of consumer inflation figures on Wednesday as a cause for concern. He believes that inflation worries will highlight the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy move. Investors are still a little cautious about the inflation numbers that could be released tomorrow. Goldman stated that higher-than-expected inflation puts the Fed at the forefront of headline risks. Since the release on Friday of a stronger-than-expected jobs report for May, traders have increased bets that the Fed will hike rates, with the probability for a 25-basis-point increase by December close to 43% and bets on a 50-basis-point increase above 20%, up from 12% ?last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Wall Street was busy at 1:49 pm. ET (1749 GMT), at 1:49 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 125.53, or 0.2%, to 50.662.70. The S&P 500 also fell 81.16, or 1.10, to 7,324.57. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 539.94, or 2.07, points to 25,391.55. The MSCI index of global stocks fell?4.45 or 0.40% to 1,096.51. The STOXX 600 pan-European index ended down 0.5%, after initially rising. CBOE's volatility index (also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge) was last up 1.49 points, at 20.37, after earlier reaching 23.34 - its highest level since the 7th of April. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yen and euro, dropped 0.12% to $99.92. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.11% to $1.1547. The?dollar gained 0.08% against the Japanese yen to 160.3. Bitcoin fell by 2.99%, to $61,576.95. Ethereum fell 2.97% to 1,639.16. U.S. Treasury Yields edged down as traders awaited May's Consumer Inflation Report?for signs that price pressures continue to build. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.8 basis points, to 4.532% from 4.55% at late Monday. The 30-year bond rate fell by 1.5 basis points, to 5.0089%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell 3.1 basis points, to 4.127% from 4.158% at late Monday. U.S. crude oil?settled' down 3.4% or $3.10 at $88.20 per barrel. Brent crude was trading at $91.62 a barrel, down 2.79 % on the day. Gold prices dropped, following a wider market selloff, as investors grew more optimistic about a U.S. rate hike in this year. Investors' attention was then turned to inflation data that will be released later this week. Spot silver dropped 4.7% to $64.96 per ounce, while gold fell by 1.68%. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York; Amanda Cooper in London; Wayne Cole in Sydney. Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Gareth Jones. Niam Williams.
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Gold drops over 1% amid rate hike fears ahead of U.S. Inflation data
On Tuesday, gold fell more than 1% to a two-month low. This was due to a wider'market' sell-off. Investors were also pressured by expectations that the U.S. will raise interest rates this year. As of 1:45 pm, spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4264.70 an ounce. ET (1745 GMT) after having fallen more than 2% in the earlier session. Bullion dropped to its lowest price since March 23. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery Settled by 1.8% at $4,286.4 "Traders have become a bit nervous about the market... all markets are now in risk-off mode." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that the current risk-off has caused a decline in gold. S&P 500 & Nasdaq both fell to new lows of over a month on Tuesday. Haberkorn said that "gold and silver will remain under pressure" until the Fed provides clearer guidance. The focus this week has shifted from last week's positive?jobs numbers to the key inflation data, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. These are expected to provide more insight into the U.S. monetary policies outlook. The gold price will likely fall even further if the U.S. May inflation data also surprises on the upside, as we expect. The gold price is likely to fall further if the U.S. inflation data for May also surprises on the upside, according to Commerzbank. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are estimating a 68% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December. After President Donald Trump's appeal, Iran and Israel announced that they would cease their attacks against each other. The higher crude oil prices can fuel inflation, and this will keep rates high for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher rates can weigh down on the metal. India's sharp rise in gold import duties is "fueling a resurgence of smuggling" that could "exceed 100 tons this year", as "soaring grey-market margins allow smugglers and refiners to undercut each other." Silver spot fell by 4.3%, to $65.23, platinum dropped 2.1%, at $1.717.30, and palladium was down 1.3%, at $1.220.92. (Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar, Jonathan Ananda, and Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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US EIA warns that oil inventories are headed for multi-decade lows
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that oil stockpiles in?the largest economies of the world are heading toward their lowest levels since 2003, as inventories are being drawn down at an unprecedented pace due to lost production from the Iran War. The EIA estimates that total oil inventories within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members will fall to just over 2.3 billion barrels in December. This is based on the current assumption that the marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz won't return to its pre-conflict level until early 2027. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook monthly report, the EIA said that the OECD's stockpile had 'not been at this low level since 2003 when the EIA started keeping records. The agency stated that the rapid inventory 'drawdown', which is required to compensate for the 11 million barrels per day of lost Middle Eastern production, creates the basis?for an increase in oil prices. Prices have been impacted by recent reports that the U.S., Iran and other countries were close to an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial waterway which handles 20% of all global oil shipments. As of this writing, an agreement had not yet been reached. The EIA reported that global oil inventories continue to drop to meet demand, while most oil production remains shut down in the region. The EIA expects the price of global benchmark Brent crude to average around $105 per barrel on the spot market in June and in July. This is well above the $91.60 per barrel that was traded in the Tuesday futures market. The agency stated that "because of the magnitude of the drawdown of global inventories we predict that oil prices will continue to be?elevated' until global oil flows are restored and oil inventories are replenished." The EIA stated that high oil prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives to conserve oil would cause the global oil demand this year to'reduce for the first time since the pandemic slump of 2020. The EIA now predicts that demand will fall by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, in contrast to its previous forecast of an increase of 200,000 barrels per day. Reporting by Shariq KHan and Scott DiSavino, New York; Editing and proofreading by Mark Porter and Paul Simao
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Data shows that Saudi jet fuel supplies to Europe are higher than before the closure of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia will deliver more jet-fuel to Europe in this month than when the Strait of Hormuz was open. Data from shipping trackers Kpler and Vortexa shows the significance of Saudi Arabia's increased exports via Red Sea. Kpler data shows that EU and UK imports of jet fuel from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Port of Yanbu reached 118,000 barrels a day in the first week of June. This is their highest level since August 2025. Vortexa estimated that the flows were at 140,000 barrels per day. Kpler data indicates that the highest monthly volume this year was?77,000 Bpd in January. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned firm, declined to comment about the "increased jet exports to Europe". By 2025, Europe will receive about 300,000 bpd of jet fuel from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, Europe's total imported fuel averaged around 550,000 bpd. This includes imports from India and Nigeria, as well as the U.S. Saudi Arabia has increased exports through the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, as the strait is effectively closed due to the Iran War. If sustained, these exports would help 'Europe fill a gap in jet fuel imports and illustrate?how?the?closure of Strait of Hormuz affects global jet fuel flow. In May, Europe increased its jet fuel imports - which averaged around 200 bpd - from the U.S. International Energy Agency said previously that Europe could start to see some shortages of jet fuel in June. However, European airlines have played down fears of a shortage during the summer. (Reporting from Seher Dareen, London; additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar. Editing by Alex Lawler & Jason Neely).
McGeever: The $500 billion T-bill fix by ROI-Treasury isn't an issue yet.
In average, the U.S. Treasury issues more than?half-a-trillion dollars in T bills per week. The spike in short-term funding is not a problem for the moment, but it could be if U.S. lending costs continue to rise.
Trump's administration has a good reason for favoring the short end of the "borrowing curve". The term premium has increased due to the persistently large budget deficits and the elevated inflation that has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for five years. This is what investors want to compensate them for purchasing long-term bonds. It makes short-term loans more appealing.
The problem of rolling over $500 billion in bills each week is not an urgent one. Cash-like instruments are a huge market, and they're essential for overnight and short term collateral and liquidity management. The Fed and money market funds in the US have a combined balance of $8 trillion dollars, which is enough to absorb the new issuance.
Even the demand for high-quality collateral will not last forever. Eventually, flooding this market may reach a point where it is impossible to absorb without a dangerous increase in money market interest rates.
Treasury's interest bill may pose a more immediate problem. Rolling over bonds and notes at higher interest rates can take years before the impact is felt, but bills only take months. The fiscal impact is already being felt as the federal interest bill is on track to exceed $1 trillion in this fiscal year. Fed rate hike expectations are also increasing.
25% THRESHOLD
What is the tipping point for a bill?
The current share of bills in the outstanding federal debt is just under 22 percent, which is slightly below the historical norm of 22,4 percent, but well above the range of 15% to 20% recommended by the Treasury Borrowing?Advisory Committee. Analysts say that the direction of travel is toward 25%.
Lou Crandall is the chief economist of Wrightson ICAP. He said that it's difficult to pinpoint a specific tipping point, but once you reach a net borrowing requirement of more than 25%, the Treasury will have to examine the sources of the demand.
It's not a line that, when crossed, will instantly reduce demand for bills. The share of bills in government debt was only 25% or higher during financial crises or recessions.
And so, borrowing policies seen only in the pandemic of 2020 and the financial crisis of 2008 could become the norm. It is not known how the market will react to this over time.
1 TRILLION BARRIERS
Treasury is currently facing record interest costs, both in nominal terms as well as when viewed by the percentage of GDP and revenue. The federal government's cumulative interest costs in the first quarter of this year totaled $616 billion. This is an increase of more than $100 billion compared to the period January-April two years ago.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), total interest payments will surpass $1 trillion in this fiscal year. They are expected to reach 3.3% of GDP, and 18.6% revenue, both records.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates from their current range of 3.50 to 3.75% in the next few months, a scenario that markets have already priced in.
Rate hikes would not only increase short-term borrowing costs, but they could also threaten economic growth. Treasury would be in a weak position if there was a recession or slowdown, as it would already be front-loading its borrowing and paying high interest rates.
This could reduce investor interest and?raise yields, even if Fed policy was loosened to support the economy.
Martin Tobias is the U.S. Rates Strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Recession does not appear imminent. A stock market correction or economic slowdown is not ruled out by higher borrowing costs. The $500 billion T-bills that are renewed every week will be scrutinized if this happens.
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(source: Reuters)