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Oil prices fall amid uncertainty in the Middle East, while stocks lose steam
MSCI's global equity index lost ground Tuesday, as investors chose safer bets and heavyweight U.S. tech stocks tumbled. Oil prices also fell as Middle East updates were vague on the progress of peace. Iran and Israel had raised hopes for a reduction in tensions on Monday when they announced that they would cease to attack each other. U.S. president Donald Trump'said'?on?Tuesday that Iran had shot down a U.S. Apache helo that was patrolling Strait of Hormuz over night and vowed?to respond without providing any details. Israel had attacked the historic port of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, on Tuesday and killed at least eight people. Tehran warned on Monday it would resume hostilities in the event that Israel continued its attacks against Hezbollah, its Lebanon-based ally. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that oil stocks in the largest economies of the world were heading towards their lowest level since 2003. EIA said that it now expects the global oil demand in 2026 to decrease, contrary to its previous forecast of an increase. Wall Street's major indexes began to lose ground, and the S&P 500 technology sector fell sharply. Sahak Manuelian said that investors are selling technology stocks and moving into more defensive sectors like real estate, utilities, and healthcare. Manuelian said, "Today, we tried to rally, but it was very, short-lived." He added that investors were selling stocks which had gained a great deal and preparing themselves for the highly anticipated SpaceX market debut later this week. Investors are assessing their portfolios to see how tech has changed and also preparing for the SpaceX IPO scheduled for Friday. They will probably need to set aside some money for that. He said that they are trying to make some money off of other investments which have risen so quickly in a short time. They may also be looking for other areas of the market where they can pursue alpha. Worries about inflation and rate Gene Goldman is chief investment officer of Cetera and he sees the release of consumer inflation figures on Wednesday as a cause for concern. He believes that inflation worries will highlight the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy move. Investors are still a little cautious about the inflation numbers that could be released tomorrow. Goldman stated that higher-than-expected inflation puts the Fed at the forefront of headline risks. Since the release on Friday of a stronger-than-expected jobs report for May, traders have increased bets that the Fed will hike rates, with the probability for a 25-basis-point increase by December close to 43% and bets on a 50-basis-point increase above 20%, up from 12% ?last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Wall Street was busy at 1:49 pm. ET (1749 GMT), at 1:49 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 125.53, or 0.2%, to 50.662.70. The S&P 500 also fell 81.16, or 1.10, to 7,324.57. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 539.94, or 2.07, points to 25,391.55. The MSCI index of global stocks fell?4.45 or 0.40% to 1,096.51. The STOXX 600 pan-European index ended down 0.5%, after initially rising. CBOE's volatility index (also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge) was last up 1.49 points, at 20.37, after earlier reaching 23.34 - its highest level since the 7th of April. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yen and euro, dropped 0.12% to $99.92. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.11% to $1.1547. The?dollar gained 0.08% against the Japanese yen to 160.3. Bitcoin fell by 2.99%, to $61,576.95. Ethereum fell 2.97% to 1,639.16. U.S. Treasury Yields edged down as traders awaited May's Consumer Inflation Report?for signs that price pressures continue to build. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.8 basis points, to 4.532% from 4.55% at late Monday. The 30-year bond rate fell by 1.5 basis points, to 5.0089%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell 3.1 basis points, to 4.127% from 4.158% at late Monday. U.S. crude oil?settled' down 3.4% or $3.10 at $88.20 per barrel. Brent crude was trading at $91.62 a barrel, down 2.79 % on the day. Gold prices dropped, following a wider market selloff, as investors grew more optimistic about a U.S. rate hike in this year. Investors' attention was then turned to inflation data that will be released later this week. Spot silver dropped 4.7% to $64.96 per ounce, while gold fell by 1.68%. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York; Amanda Cooper in London; Wayne Cole in Sydney. Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Gareth Jones. Niam Williams.
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Gold drops over 1% amid rate hike fears ahead of U.S. Inflation data
On Tuesday, gold fell more than 1% to a two-month low. This was due to a wider'market' sell-off. Investors were also pressured by expectations that the U.S. will raise interest rates this year. As of 1:45 pm, spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4264.70 an ounce. ET (1745 GMT) after having fallen more than 2% in the earlier session. Bullion dropped to its lowest price since March 23. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery Settled by 1.8% at $4,286.4 "Traders have become a bit nervous about the market... all markets are now in risk-off mode." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that the current risk-off has caused a decline in gold. S&P 500 & Nasdaq both fell to new lows of over a month on Tuesday. Haberkorn said that "gold and silver will remain under pressure" until the Fed provides clearer guidance. The focus this week has shifted from last week's positive?jobs numbers to the key inflation data, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. These are expected to provide more insight into the U.S. monetary policies outlook. The gold price will likely fall even further if the U.S. May inflation data also surprises on the upside, as we expect. The gold price is likely to fall further if the U.S. inflation data for May also surprises on the upside, according to Commerzbank. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are estimating a 68% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December. After President Donald Trump's appeal, Iran and Israel announced that they would cease their attacks against each other. The higher crude oil prices can fuel inflation, and this will keep rates high for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher rates can weigh down on the metal. India's sharp rise in gold import duties is "fueling a resurgence of smuggling" that could "exceed 100 tons this year", as "soaring grey-market margins allow smugglers and refiners to undercut each other." Silver spot fell by 4.3%, to $65.23, platinum dropped 2.1%, at $1.717.30, and palladium was down 1.3%, at $1.220.92. (Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar, Jonathan Ananda, and Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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US EIA warns that oil inventories are headed for multi-decade lows
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that oil stockpiles in?the largest economies of the world are heading toward their lowest levels since 2003, as inventories are being drawn down at an unprecedented pace due to lost production from the Iran War. The EIA estimates that total oil inventories within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members will fall to just over 2.3 billion barrels in December. This is based on the current assumption that the marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz won't return to its pre-conflict level until early 2027. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook monthly report, the EIA said that the OECD's stockpile had 'not been at this low level since 2003 when the EIA started keeping records. The agency stated that the rapid inventory 'drawdown', which is required to compensate for the 11 million barrels per day of lost Middle Eastern production, creates the basis?for an increase in oil prices. Prices have been impacted by recent reports that the U.S., Iran and other countries were close to an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial waterway which handles 20% of all global oil shipments. As of this writing, an agreement had not yet been reached. The EIA reported that global oil inventories continue to drop to meet demand, while most oil production remains shut down in the region. The EIA expects the price of global benchmark Brent crude to average around $105 per barrel on the spot market in June and in July. This is well above the $91.60 per barrel that was traded in the Tuesday futures market. The agency stated that "because of the magnitude of the drawdown of global inventories we predict that oil prices will continue to be?elevated' until global oil flows are restored and oil inventories are replenished." The EIA stated that high oil prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives to conserve oil would cause the global oil demand this year to'reduce for the first time since the pandemic slump of 2020. The EIA now predicts that demand will fall by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, in contrast to its previous forecast of an increase of 200,000 barrels per day. Reporting by Shariq KHan and Scott DiSavino, New York; Editing and proofreading by Mark Porter and Paul Simao
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Data shows that Saudi jet fuel supplies to Europe are higher than before the closure of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia will deliver more jet-fuel to Europe in this month than when the Strait of Hormuz was open. Data from shipping trackers Kpler and Vortexa shows the significance of Saudi Arabia's increased exports via Red Sea. Kpler data shows that EU and UK imports of jet fuel from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Port of Yanbu reached 118,000 barrels a day in the first week of June. This is their highest level since August 2025. Vortexa estimated that the flows were at 140,000 barrels per day. Kpler data indicates that the highest monthly volume this year was?77,000 Bpd in January. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned firm, declined to comment about the "increased jet exports to Europe". By 2025, Europe will receive about 300,000 bpd of jet fuel from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, Europe's total imported fuel averaged around 550,000 bpd. This includes imports from India and Nigeria, as well as the U.S. Saudi Arabia has increased exports through the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, as the strait is effectively closed due to the Iran War. If sustained, these exports would help 'Europe fill a gap in jet fuel imports and illustrate?how?the?closure of Strait of Hormuz affects global jet fuel flow. In May, Europe increased its jet fuel imports - which averaged around 200 bpd - from the U.S. International Energy Agency said previously that Europe could start to see some shortages of jet fuel in June. However, European airlines have played down fears of a shortage during the summer. (Reporting from Seher Dareen, London; additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar. Editing by Alex Lawler & Jason Neely).
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Jio BlackRock to launch ETF in August after $2 billion India fund base
Jio BlackRock Asset Management will launch its first exchange traded funds in India by August. The company hopes to emulate 'BlackRock’s' global success in passive investment in a market that is still developing. In the year following its launch, the joint venture between MukeshAmbani's Jio Financial Services (JFS) and the largest asset manager in world has managed to amass about 180 billion rupees in assets. This was achieved by establishing a solid base of cash, debt index and active equity funds. The plan is to begin with equity-focused ETFs. BlackRock manages approximately $5.1 trillion worth of ETF assets worldwide, which is more than a third of all assets managed by the company. This highlights the importance of this product line for its brand. Jio?BlackRock is currently India's 29th largest asset manager. "ETFs can be a good long-term investment." Retailers are now becoming more interested in ETFs, even though the Indian market is predominantly institutional. We can see by global trends that?ETFs are a popular choice of investment," said Sid Swaminathan. ETF INNOVATION CAN BOOST LIQUIDITY According to the Mutual Fund Industry Association, passive mutual fund assets in India amounted to 15.20 trillion rupees (or about 18.5%) of the industry’s average assets under administration, which totaled 81.94 trillion. Comparatively, equity index funds and ETFs make up about 45.3% (or more) of the long-term mutual and ETF assets held in the U.S. Swaminathan stated that tighter bid-offer margins and more innovative strategy could help improve liquidity and boost participation by retail in Indian ETFs. Within the next few months, the company plans to 'launch products' in GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City), India’s low-tax financial centre that competes with centres like Singapore and Dubai. COMPLEX PRODUCTS?PROMPT PIVOT DISTRIBUTOR -LED MODEL Jio BlackRock's more complex products, such as special investment funds or GIFT City, are distributed by Jio BlackRock rather than digitally. This reflects the role that advisers continue to play in selling higher-ticket items. Swaminathan stated that the decision to "prioritise" those launches was partly driven by market conditions. India's Nifty 50 index has fallen 11.1% in 2026 due to foreign outflows and higher oil prices, as well as a slowing of earnings growth. MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index is up 18.2%.
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Markets rise as votes from overseas pour in and the race for Peru tightens up again
The race for Peru's presidency tightened up overnight, with candidates separated by less that 0.1%. Overseas votes are pushing the race to Keiko Fujimori. This is giving markets a boost on Tuesday. The main'stock -index' of Peru jumped more than 7% on Tuesday morning. U.S. listed shares like Buenaventura miner were up 8.2%, Intercorp Financial Services was up 12.9% and the iShares MSCI Peru Global Exposure ETF jumped by 6.7%. The local currency, the sol, was up by 2.45% against the dollar at 3.345. The increase is largely the reversal from a sharp drop on Friday, after leftist Roberto Sanchez, rattled investors and markets with his proposals to revamp Peru’s mining-heavy economic system, rose in the polls. He has advocated reforming the constitution and imposing wealth taxes. Fujimori has taken up the legacy of her authoritarian father, former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori. He was jailed in connection with mass murders during his presidency. Fujimori was leading in exit polls and early counts, but Sanchez gained more ground as rural votes came in. Sanchez's lead grew to almost 50,000 votes Monday, but has now dropped to 20,000 as overseas votes continue to be counted. Sanchez is currently leading Fujimori with 49.94% to 50.06% with 95.95% votes counted. Alfredo Torres of Ipsos said that although the rural vote still tends to favor Sanchez, a significant part of the votes pending are from outside of the country. This is in favor of Fujimori. A total of?1.67% ballots are flagged for review. The majority of them are from the Lima metro region which is also Fujimori's stronghold. Torres, speaking to a local station, said that "doing the math" it is possible that the numbers now seen could be reversed. Both candidates have called for patience, and that all votes be counted. Peru's ONPE said that a complete count should be completed in July. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Villegas, Marco Aquino)
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Oil and dollar drop, while stocks lose steam
MSCI's global equity gauge retreated from its earlier gains as Wall Street investors waited anxiously for inflation data. The dollar also dropped along with oil prices in hopes of easing Middle East tensions following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that the ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy conduit, is increasing "very significantly." Israel's Tuesday attack on the historic port of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, killed at least eight people, but the progress towards a Middle East peace still seemed uncertain. Tehran had warned on Monday it would re-engage in hostilities should Israel continue to attack Hezbollah, its Lebanon-based ally. U.S. Treasury rates dipped as traders awaited the consumer inflation report for May, which is due on Wednesday. This will provide a better indication of whether or not price pressures continue to increase. S&P 500 technology's heavyweight sector was unable to hold gains earlier, which put pressure on both the benchmark index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Gene Goldman of Cetera pointed out that investors are anxious ahead of economic data, as they worry about elevated inflation fueling worries about the Federal Reserve. Investors are a little cautious as they worry about tomorrow's potential?high inflation numbers. Goldman stated that higher-than-expected inflation brings the Fed into the spotlight as a major risk. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that since the release of the stronger-than-expected May jobs report on Friday, traders are increasing bets the Fed will increase rates rather than cut them. According to the tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by December is now 43.4%, and the bets for a 50 basis point increase have increased from 12% the previous week. Wall Street opened at 11:01 am. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 145.62, or 0.29% to 50,931.63, while the S&P 500 dropped 16.64, or 0.22% to 7,389.09, and the Nasdaq composite fell 179.07, or 0.69% to 25,750.59. MSCI's global stock index rose 3.23 points or 0.29% to 1,104.19, after previously rising more than 1%. After paring gains, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.18%. BORROWING FEES In currency, the dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies that includes the?yen, and the Euro) fell by 0.22%, while the euro rose 0.23%, reaching $1.1561. The dollar gained 0.04% against the Japanese yen to 160.23. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 0.2 basis point to 4.548% from 4.55% on Monday, while the 30-year bond yield increased 0.3 basis point to 5.0272%. The yield on the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, dropped 1.7 basis points from Monday's 4.158% to 4.141%. Energy markets saw U.S. crude fall 3.94% to $86.70 a barrel while Brent dropped to $91.11 a barrel, a drop of 3.33% for the day. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York; Amanda Cooper in London; Wayne Cole in Sydney. Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus & Gareth Jones.
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Sources say that China continues to issue fuel quotas in spite of export controls
Four?trade? sources said that China issued its second batch fuel quotas this year. The total is?18 millions metric tons. Despite existing export restrictions, the overall levels are largely unchanged year on year. China has cut back on outbound shipments since March to protect its domestic oil supply, in light of the protracted conflict in Middle East which is disrupting oil flow. Sources said that out of the total, 13 million tons quotas had been allocated for the export of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel while 5 millions tons were reserved for marine fuel oil. Sources said that Sinopec, CNPC, and Sinochem received a total of 4,06 million?tons under the "processing" trade category. These quotas will be used primarily for exports to 'Hong Kong, and aviation fuel refueling at Chinese airports. Beijing allocated 19 million tons of the first batch quotas this year in December, while the second batch was 18 million tons last year. The?Commerce ministry of China was not available immediately outside office hours. Two of the four sources stated that the government had also given 8.94 million tons of quotas to six companies under the "general trade" category, but due to the current restrictions, only Sinopec and PetroChina are allowed to export. Estimated exports to ex-Hong Kong buyers, mainly in the Asia-Pacific area, for May and Juni were between 500,000-550,000 tonnes. Two separate sources familiar with the issue said that the government has vetted a list of countries receiving Chinese fuel in the past few months but is easing up on the scrutiny of June shipments. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Trixie Yap; Editing by Alison Williams
As the war in Iran drags on, rising fuel prices are hitting US farms.
Energy costs are squeezing soybean and grain growers in the U.S. Farm Belt as the Iran War chokes fuel supply through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices to record highs. Farmers were already under pressure and faced a fourth consecutive year of shrinking margins due to a resurgent dry spell, high input costs, and the fallout from President Donald Trump's policies on trade, which has impacted crop prices. Diesel prices in the Midwest, America’s main corn- and soybean-producing region rose to record highs as a result of the conflict in May. This was just as farmers were ramping up spring fieldwork and planting. Wisconsin diesel reached $5.873 a gallon in mid-May, Indiana $6.167 and Illinois $6.14. According to the data of the AAA, Ohio and Michigan have also set records. Since the Middle East conflict started, the national average diesel has increased by more than 40%. The global crude oil price, which is the basis for diesel and gasoline, has risen by about 30% since late February.
Diesel is used to power equipment on farms in the U.S. for a variety of field operations. From spraying pesticides, planting seeds, and fertilizing fields, to harvesting and harvesting crops.
Most U.S. farming machinery is designed to run solely on diesel. This leaves farmers exposed to the volatility of diesel prices.
"It is a very expensive cost," said Glenn Brunkow who raises cattle and soybeans in Wamego. We can't do much about it and didn't budget for it. We were surprised by the suddenness of it. Ben Klieve of Benchmark Analysis, citing University of Illinois estimates, stated that fuel-related costs accounted for 3% to 4 % or $16 to $ 23 per acre on average, prior to the war. Klieve stated that if diesel prices remain at the current level, fuel costs for row-crop farmers could increase to between 5% and 6% of their total input costs. This would mean a jump from $20 per acre to $30 per acre. He said that row-crop farmers are facing a difficult situation. The prices of grain they produce have dropped sharply over the past few weeks, and are even lower than the levels before the Iran war. However, input costs such as diesel and fertilizer are still significantly higher. This is affecting their bottom line.
FARMERS BEAR LOSSES
Tom Murphy, a corn and soybean farmer in northwest Indiana, said that he had delayed plans to turn the soil on fields he recently rented because he didn't want to waste fuel operating his machinery.
Murphy planned to level five fields before prices spiked to make it easier to use equipment to spray and harvest crops. He only tilled a single field to save 6,000 gallons (of farm diesel) he purchased in December. The fields will be used to grow crops but will not look as he had hoped.
Murphy, who doesn't till many of his fields, said, "We will leave them a bit rough this year and fix next year."
Murphy stated in late May that there were still 2,500 gallons of water in his storage room from December. He would have to purchase more in order to maintain the crops during the summer growing season.
Don Bloss is a grain and soy bean grower from Pawnee City in Nebraska. He said that he paid higher rates to truckers for the 80-mile haul of corn to market.
Bloss told Bloss, "You have to continue writing checks." "We are at the mercy of everyone else."
More pain may be on the way
Fuel prices could rise even more if the Iran War continues to choke off global fuel supplies.
Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, which is a vital passageway for almost a fifth of all global oil flows, the demand for U.S. Petroleum Products has been high. The domestic supply cushion, which helps to keep gasoline and diesel prices under control, could shrink further if exports remain at record levels as we head into summer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, distillate fuel oil stocks in the United States fell to a 23 year low in May. The distillate stocks of the United States, which include diesel and heating oils, dropped by 2.1 millions barrels during the week ending May 22. This is the lowest level since May 2003.
Patrick De Haan is the head of GasBuddy's petroleum analysis. He said that there are still many uncertainties surrounding a possible deal between Iran and the United States. De Haan stated that any setbacks in the negotiations could reverse the recent drop in fuel prices. Reporting by Nicole Jao and Tom Polansek, both in New York; editing by Liz Hampton and Nick Zieminski.
(source: Reuters)