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Russell: Imports of thermal coal from Asia are easing as prices increase after a 4-year low.

The prices of the main grades in seaborne thermal coal have been recovering modestly from their four-year lows. However, the gains come at the expense of volume as major importers reduce demand.

According to analysts DBX Commodities, China, India and South Korea are on course for lower coal arrivals in September than October.

The prices of the main Australian and Indonesian grades have been rising since early June after a downward trend that began in October 2023.

The lower prices in July and August did increase import demand, but the higher prices are now causing buyers to pull back.

DBX estimates that China imported 28.17 millions metric tons of seaborne thermal coke in October. This is down from 28.43 in September, and below the 33.53 in October last year.

India, the second largest coal importer in the world, is expected to import 13,35 million tons in October. This is down from the 13.76 million tons imported in September, and also below the 13.82 millions from last October.

DBX predicts that Japan, ranked third in the world, will import 9.52 millions tons in October. This is down from 10.44 in September and 9.94 in 2024.

South Korea is the fourth largest coal importer in the world. It expects to receive 6.45 million tonnes of coal in October. This is down from 8.19 millions in September but an increase from 5.92 million in October last year.

It is not surprising that October's lower imports reflect the increased prices from July.

PRICE RECOVERY

Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed the price of Australian coal that has an energy content of 5500 kilocalories/kg (kcal/kg), a popular grade in China and India. The price was $76.34 per ton for the week ending October 20.

The price has increased by 16% from the low of $65.72 set in early June, and now stands at its highest level since the week ending March 3.

Argus assessed Indonesian coal, with an energy content 4,200 kcal/kg at $45.26 a tonne in the seven-day period ending October 20. This is a 12% increase from its low of $40.45 a tonne in the week of July 4.

GlobalCOAL assessed the price for 6,000 kcal/kg of fuel at Newcastle Port at $105.34 per ton on Tuesday, an increase from $103.74 last week.

Newcastle's price, however, has remained largely unchanged in recent weeks in a small range of around $104 per ton.

The lower imports to Japan and South Korea is more likely due to a weaker demand during the shoulder season, between the peak of northern summer and winter.

Recent trends in the import and price of Asian seaborne thermal coke show that the market is divided between buyers who are more sensitive to prices, such as China and India and those who are more seasonal-driven, such as Japan or South Korea.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)