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Oil prices drop on worries about US-China trade tensions
Oil prices fell on Monday as worries about a global glut grew, while tensions between the U.S. and China over trade added to fears of an economic slowdown. Brent crude futures dropped 53 cents or 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel as of 0610 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures also fell 55 cents or 0.96% to $56.99 erasing Friday's gains. The International Energy Agency has forecast a growing glut of supply in 2026, which is partly responsible for the declines. Toshitaka Takawa, an economist at Fujitomi Securities, said that fears of a slowdown in the economy due to increased U.S. China trade tensions are driving selling pressure. China's third quarter economic growth has slowed down to its weakest pace for a year. This was revealed by the China statistics bureau on Monday. Weak domestic demand weighed on the results, which raises questions about Beijing's dependence on exports in light of trade tensions with America. Last week, the World Trade Organization's head said that she had urged both the U.S.A. and China de-escalate their trade tensions. She warned that a decoupling of the two world's largest economies over time could result in a 7% reduction in global economic output. Two of the world's largest oil consumers recently re-started their trade war by imposing port fees on ships transporting cargo between them. This could cause global freight flow disruptions. There is still uncertainty about what will happen to the Russian oil supply. U.S. president Donald Trump warned again on Sunday that Washington will maintain "massive tariffs" on India unless India stops buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin also agreed to meet again on Thursday, despite Washington's pressure on India and China not to buy Russian oil. After talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday at the White House, Trump urged both Ukraine and Russia "to stop the war immediately," even though it meant Ukraine granting territory. Trade sources and analysts say that the pressure from the United States and Europe on Asian buyers to reduce their Russian energy imports could result in India's oil imports being restricted as of December, resulting in cheaper supplies for China. Baker Hughes, a leading energy services company, said that the United States added oil and gas rigs last week for the first time since three weeks. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, Colleen Waye in Beijing and Sonali Paul.
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Gold prices rise on US rate-cutting optimism; Sino-US Trade Talks in Focus
Gold prices rose on Monday as investors looked forward to the release of key inflation data, and trade talks between Washington and Beijing scheduled for this week. As of 0514 GMT, spot gold was up 0.3%, at $4,259.34 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.4%, to $4273 per ounce. Silver spot rose by 0.6%, to $52.18 an ounce. After hitting a record-high of $54.47 earlier that day, prices fell by about 4.4% in their worst session in early April. The gold market is still trying to get its bearings after the Friday selloff. After a few weeks' mania, the sentiment is cooling off a little, said Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda. Gold prices fell by 1.8% Friday, the highest since mid-May after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that his 100% tariffs on Chinese goods would not be sustainable. He expressed his confidence in the future of relations with China and said he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. The next major hurdles will be the U.S. China talks this week, and the CPI release from the United States on the Friday. The absence of economic data has created a vacuum that, I believe, has led to the surge in gold price. The Federal Reserve is not expected to push back on the pricing of rate cuts. This should not worry markets. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a quart-point Fed rate reduction this month and another in December. The non-yielding gold has gained over 60% in the past year, reaching a record high of $4378.69 last Friday. This was due to geopolitical tensions and aggressive bets on rate cuts, central bank purchases, de-dollarisation, and strong exchange-traded funds. Palladium also slipped 0.2%, to $1470.83 an ounce, and platinum dropped nearly 2%, to $1589.60.
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Australian shares finish higher as gold miners and banks fall, but banks do well
Australian shares ended modestly higher Monday as financials were lifted by investors seeking refuge in bank stocks. Profit-taking among miners and gold producers also capped gains. The S&P/ASX 200 Index, which had been trading flat throughout the session, finished 0.4% higher, at 9,031.90. The benchmark index closed Friday 0.8% lower. Financials grew 1.5% as investors sought temporary refuge in heavyweight subindex. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade Global. He said: "Financial shares have shown a strong track record of generating bumper profit this year, so it's not surprising to see this industry experiencing strong buying flow today." Gold stocks, on the other hand fell as much as 5% intraday, their biggest percentage drop since July 9 Hayden Bairstow is the managing director and head of research for Argonaut. He said that some profit-taking likely contributed to the decline in gold stocks. Hayden added, "We remain positive on gold but see upward movement from the current levels." Sector has increased by over 11% compared to its previous session in October. Evolution Mining, a gold miner, fell by 4.9% while Northern Star Resources finished 3.6% lower. The mining stocks dropped by as much as 2,4% due to lower copper and gold price, while the weak economic data coming from Australia's main trading partner, China further soured sentiment. BHP Group, the mining giant, lost 1.1% while South32 dropped 3.1%. Energy stocks finished 0.4% higher, and technology stocks gained 0.9% in line with their U.S. counterparts. Real estate and industrials both added almost 1%. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand gained 0.4% and ended at 13,344.96. Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee and Atharva Singh from Bengaluru, editing by Nivedita Battacharjee
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Indonesia loses up to $2.4bn a year due to illegal tin activity, says president
The illegal tin mining, and smuggling tin ore costs Indonesian government between 30 trillion rupiah to 40 trillion (US$1.8-$2.4) billion per year. President Prabowo said this on Monday when he called to action to "save Indonesia's entire wealth." Prabowo speaking at a ceremonial event where the Attorney-General handed over 13 trillion rupiah to the government that had been seized in a corruption case against Three palm oil companies The authorities need to investigate more cases of misconduct within the natural resource sectors. He said, "I will continue to pursue the misappropriated money," as he stood before piles of rupiah notes, which were part of the confiscated money. The government has intensified efforts to crackdown on illegal activities in the natural resource sectors, such as tin or palm oil. Prabowo stated that the ceremony. In the first half of this month, Attorney General also Hand over tin assets Smelters and other equipment were confiscated in a case of corruption.
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Holcim signs 1.85 billion euro agreement to purchase walling specialist Xella
Holcim announced a deal on Monday to buy German walling system maker Xella for 1.85 billion euros ($2.16 billion). This is the largest acquisition by Holcim under CEO Miljan Gutovic since he assumed control in May 2024. The acquisition reflects Holcim’s strategic shift from its core cement businesses to expanding its building products segment, including roofing and insulation systems. Gutovic said that Holcim is focusing on sustainable construction as part of its strategy. "Xella will enhance our customer offering on the highly lucrative EUR 12 billion+ walling markets, with opportunities for cross-selling and system-selling," said the Chief Executive in a press release. Holcim reported that Xella, based in Duisburg in Germany, has over 4,000 employees and is active in 21 of Europe’s most attractive markets. Xella, a company that uses brands such as Ytong Silka Hebel Multipor and Hebel for its products, is expecting sales of 1 billion euros by 2025. Holcim stated that it paid a multiple 8.9 times Xella’s projected earnings before interest tax and depreciation (EBITDA) for 2026. It also said the acquisition was expected to have a positive impact on earnings in the first year. The Swiss company stated that it expected to complete the deal in the second half 2026. ($1 = 0.8570 euros) (Reporting and editing by Kirstiknolle, Kirsti Revill)
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Indian shares are rising as earnings continue to be positive; Reliance and HDFC Bank both record highs.
India's equity benchmarks rose Monday, led largely by a rally after results in the index heavyweights, private lender HDFC Bank, and oil-to -telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries. Profit booking at ICICI Bank capped gains. As of 10:09 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.45% to 25,828.75. The BSE Sensex gained 0.51% to 84376.21. Early trade saw both benchmarks rise by 0.8%, bringing them within 2% from the highs of September 2024. Fourteen out of 16 major sectors posted gains. The small-caps were flat, while the midcaps gained 0.6%. HDFC Bank, the largest private lender in India, rose by as much as 1.7% to a Record high After posting a higher than expected profit for the second quarterly on stable loan growth and increased trading income. The stock has lost some of its gains and is now trading at about 0.5% higher. Reliance Industries increased by 3.4%, reaching a new high of three months. Terming Positives include the core earnings of the company, retail sales and an improving outlook for earnings. ICICI Bank is also a good option. Analysts are predicting a 2% decline in profits despite the fact that they beat expectations in the third quarter. They also predict a softer growth in loans and deposits, but maintain a positive outlook. Prior to its Saturday results, the private lender's performance in previous sessions had been positive. Master Capital Services' assistant vice president for research and advisory, Vishnu Kant Upadhyay said, "Positive quarter earnings, festive demand, and optimism regarding the India-U.S. Trade Talks have all contributed to the upward momentum of the markets and strengthened investor confidence." Ultratech Cement, among other stocks, fell by 0.7% following the release of results that were below most analyst's expectations due to higher costs. Brokerages have reiterated that they are optimistic about the earnings of the top cement maker in the country for the second half fiscal year 2026. Ultratech's stock had gained 2.5% over the last three sessions. RBL Bank jumped After Emirates NBD's record-breaking $3 billion investment, the private lender has seen a 6% increase in its share price.
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Shanghai copper prices rise as China's industrial output data is strong.
Shanghai copper gained on Monday as China's stronger-than-expected industrial output helped to boost sentiment even as the country's economic growth slowed to a one-year low. As of 0330 GMT, the most active copper contract traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.26%, trading at 85,790 Yuan ($12,041.88) a metric ton. The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metal Exchange increased by 1.06%, trading at $10 717 per ton. Data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that China's industrial production grew 6.5% on an annual basis in September, up significantly from the 5.2% growth in the previous month. This figure is a new high for three months and beats the forecast of 5.0%. The data released on Monday also revealed that China's gross national product (GNP) grew at a slower pace than in any other quarter in the past year. It was down from 5.2% growth in the second quarter. The second-largest global economy, which grew by 5.2% over the first three-quarters of this year, is targeting a growth rate of around 5% for the entire year. The next five-year China plan is the focus of traders, who are looking for a stronger stimulus as GDP growth is slowing. A copper trader in Shanghai, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said: "We expect to see more supportive measures in the future to boost economic development amid tariff threats and trade war." The copper shortage in 2026 remained a major concern for the market as disruptions in mining, such as at the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, which is the second largest mine in the world, decreased raw material supply. Nickel fell 0.3%; lead increased 0.26%. Tin lost 0.44%. Zinc added 0.56% to the LME, nickel grew by 0.19%, and lead increased 0.3%. Tin was up 0.81%. Aluminium was not changed.
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Dalian iron ore falls to a seven-week low due to concerns about China's demand prospects
Dalian iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in seven weeks on Monday, after a series of disappointing data from the world's largest steel-making consumer China fueled concerns about demand prospects. The January contract for iron ore, the most traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed morning trade at 770 Yuan ($108.08). It had touched its lowest level since September 1, at 762.50 Yuan, earlier in the day. As of 0354 GMT the benchmark November iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.41% to $104.35 per ton. This was due to a weaker dollar, which made commodities priced in dollars cheaper for buyers who used other currencies. Singapore's benchmark fell to its lowest level since October 9th at $103.25. China's third-quarter economic growth is likely to have slowed down to its lowest level in a year as trade tensions and a prolonged property slump weigh on demand. Some key indicators, including new construction and property investment in the property sector, pointed to a gloomy outlook for steel demand that dragged ore prices lower. In September, the new home price in China dropped at the fastest rate in 11 months, further reducing the drag of the property sector on the broader economy. China's crude output of steel in September fell to its lowest level in 21 months, with persistent property market problems a major drag. The fourth quarter is usually a slow time for steel demand, as the temperatures are low in the northern regions. Analysts expect a limited supply of coke and coal, which are used to make steel. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have largely moved within a narrow range. Rebar grew by 0.13%. Hot-rolled coil, stainless steel and wire rod were unchanged. Reporting by Amy Lv & ColleenHowe. $1 = 7.1243 Chinese Yuan Renminbi.
The Takaichi Trade makes a Comeback in the Morning Bid Europe
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Since the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party formed a coalition to form a government, the Takaichi Trade has been in full flow. This brings Japan closer to the first female Prime Minister.
Analysts believe Sanae Takaichi will be in favor of stimulus and against any further interest rate hikes. This is a negative for the Japanese yen, but positive for stocks. The Nikkei jumped to an all-time record high of 2,9%, and the yen fell modestly. Even the ultra-long JGBs attracted a bid. Perhaps on relief, there would be an actual government, even if it is a minority.
JAPAN BUTTRESSES ASIA MARSKETS AFTER MIXED CHINA data
Nikkei's jump helped to lead Asia higher as markets navigated a mixed bag of Chinese economic news. The Chinese economy outperformed expectations by growing at a rate of 1.1% in its third quarter, compared to the three months before. However, the pace of growth on an annual basis slowed down as expected. The industrial output was also above expectations, while retail sales and home prices were in line.
The data was solid enough for China to feel confident that it can last longer than the United States during a trade conflict, and President Trump admitted that 100% tariffs are not sustainable.
The Five-Year Plan was discussed by top Chinese policymakers this week, but investors had long since given up expecting any aggressive stimulus.
Analysts also weren't sure what to think of the news that China's chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang was removed from his position as the country’s permanent representative at World Trade Organization.
US WORKS ON DELIVERING DATA DURING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
The government shutdown in the U.S. is not going to end soon. And the longer it continues, the greater the impact on the economy, even though markets are complacent right now.
The statistics bureau makes a special effort on Friday to release the CPI, as it is required for all kinds of indexing including TIPS. The Federal Reserve's refusal to back down on the near 100% probability of a rate cut this month should not change the expectations for an acceleration in core inflation.
Companies reporting earnings include Tesla, Ford and GM. Also, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and RTX, the aerospace and defense giant, as well as tech giants IBM and Intel.
Markets punish results that do not blow the roof off. Options suggest that the average share price will drop by around 6% for even the slightest disappointment.
BofA predicts earnings growth of 11 %, driven by a 20 % rise in the technology sector. Nvidia is responsible for a quarter growth in earnings per share.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
* Isabel Schnabel, ECB board director, participates in a panel. Erik Thedeen, Governor of the Riksbank, discusses economic conditions
German Producer Prices for September
(source: Reuters)