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Happy new world order!

Happy new world order!
Happy new world order!

Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.

From the Editor

Hello Morning Bid readers! Welcome to the new year and what an eventful week! Donald Trump's renewed talk about "acquiring" Greenland, possibly through payments to its citizens, has also dominated headlines. This geopolitical drama has had limited market impact so far. The S&P 500 ended Thursday essentially flat after only modest movement this week. Yesterday, however, the U.S. Aerospace and Defence Index, as well as European defence shares, reached a new high.

When the news of the U.S.-led strike in Caracas broke on Saturday, investors' attention was focused on energy markets. Venezuela is the home of the largest oil reserves in the world, 300 billion barrels. This represents around one fifth of the total global supply. Brent closed below $60 per barrel on Wednesday, as crude prices fell earlier in the week. This was due to expectations that additional oil would be added to a market already oversupplied. Prices have recovered since then. U.S. action in the Caribbean is likely to benefit oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast that were built decades earlier to process heavy crude, the type Venezuela exports. Caracas, in fact, has agreed to export as much as $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. This will largely come at the expense China, which became the primary importer of Venezuelan petroleum after Trump imposed sanctions against the country's oil industry in 2019. It is possible to increase Venezuelan oil production, but it could take many years and cost billions. Even though President Trump claimed that U.S. energy companies would have the chance to revive Venezuela's defunct oil industry it is an offer they might want to reject. There are likely to be many reasons behind America's action in Caracas. However, a little-discussed reason could be that the White House is concerned about the declining global prominence of "the petrodollar", a tool which has helped the U.S. maintain dominance in global finance for years. Trump's actions and words this week may have investors taking more seriously the White House national security strategy that was released last year.

This week, the markets received some of the most recent "clean" U.S. employment data since the government shutdown in the fall. However, the picture painted was far from clear. JOLTS showed that U.S. employment fell to a 14 month low in November, while hiring was sluggish. ADP's National Employment Report noted that private employment rose by 41,000 last month, after falling by 29,000 jobs in November. Friday, the non-farm payrolls for December will provide the clearest picture of the U.S. labour market. The December non-farm payrolls are expected to show that the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5%, down from 4.6%. Federal Reserve is unlikely to be influenced by these data, but the policymaking body will still consider the future direction of interest rates. The Supreme Court's ruling today on the legality President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could be the most important news for the markets on Friday. Metals news today revealed that Rio Tinto and Glencore are reportedly in talks to merge. This could result in the world's biggest mining company, with a combined value of over $207 billion. Open Interest has more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has more commodities and markets news. Find out why China is in a strange competition with the U.S. over spare copper, or what could spoil Wall Street's celebration in 2026.

Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI Team as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at

This weekend we read... JAMIE MCGEEVER. China, Russia, Iran or any of 60 conflicts raging across the globe (the most since World War II) will not be the biggest source of instability in the world. The United States will be responsible." GAVIN Maguire, ROI - Global Energy Transition columnist: Michael Cembalest's incisive study of Venezuela's oil and its ability to supplement US refinery capacity in heavy and medium crude grades is a fascinating read. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The analysis by Prima Sidera of European strategic autonomy in defense sectors is timely given Trump's demand for European countries to spend more. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Daniel Yergin’s The Prize provides a definitive history of the oil business. This week I pulled the classic from my shelf to remind myself of how oil was the driving force behind the foreign policies of the world's major powers during the 20th century. Check out the book's YouTube video for more great visuals.

We are listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: Listen to Ron Bousso, ROI's Director of Research and Development, discuss the impact of U.S. action in Venezuela on?energy markets.

We're watching... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance columnist: New Yorker writer Jonathan Blitzer appeared on the Ezra Klein Podcast to discuss the regional implications and global impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's deposition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

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(source: Reuters)