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No payrolls, no problem as stocks hit record highs

The world stock market was on track for a solid gain this week and new record highs as the unstoppable rise in tech stocks and expectations of lower U.S. rates offset uncertainty over the U.S. shutdown.

Investors have mostly ignored the 15th shutdown since 1981. But on Friday, it meant that traders were unable to get the most important economic data of the month - the U.S. monthly payroll figures.

MSCI's 47-country world share index didn't seem to be bothered by the overnight record highs in Wall Street and Europe on Thursday. Equities have had their best week since early April.

The euro also ticked up on Friday thanks to the Eurozone services sector PMIs. They accelerated to a high of eight months due to moderate growth in Germany and Spain. However, France's political uncertainties continued to weigh.

Christopher Hodge is the U.S. economist for Natixis. He said that the lack of payrolls later has in some way bolstered forecasters' current views on the possibility of another rate cut this month.

Hodge added that the markets had also dealt with shutdowns in the U.S. for a long time.

The only difference this time around is that the economic and policy cycle is more ambiguous.

Benchmark government bonds yields, the main driver for global borrowing costs, increased in both the U.S.

The markets have almost completely priced in a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points this month, and at least four by the end 2026.

GOING GOLD

The MSCI main Asian share index rose overnight, closing with a weekly gain of 2.3%. It has now increased by about 23% in this year.

China and other parts of Asia were closed on holiday. Trading was therefore lighter than usual, although Taiwan reached a new record high. Japan's Nikkei also rose 1.5% before the weekend's crucial vote to determine the next Prime Minister.

Wall Street futures also pointed higher. All three major U.S. indices closed at new peaks on Friday, buoyed by the insatiable enthusiasm of investors for AI.

Weiheng chen, global investment strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank said that investors seem willing to give Washington some time to settle its differences, even though a prolonged shut down may begin to affect the markets.

Chen stated that investors are currently more interested in the possible impacts of the Fed rate-cutting cycles, immigration and trade policy, economic data and corporate earnings.

Investors have relied on alternative data, both public and private, to gauge the state of the U.S. labor market.

The dollar is now under pressure. The dollar index, which compares it to six other major currencies, is down again in Europe. It's on track for its largest weekly drop since august.

The Japanese yen is the most significant beneficiary of the drop in the dollar, although it fell 0.3% on Friday to 147.74 dollars after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Umeda failed to provide any clues as when the Bank will raise interest rates next.

Oil prices in commodities recovered slightly for the day, but are on track to experience their biggest weekly decline in more than three months. Brent crude futures were at $64.81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.30 a barrel.

Gold, on the other hand, is on track to reach a record high of $3.896 per ounce, which was set on Thursday.

Low interest rates make it a popular asset in times of uncertainty. The stock has risen 47% in the past year.

Gold is the best safe haven as the U.S. Dollar's position as the world reserve currency is being tested. We continue to see gold as the ultimate asset diversifier, said Greg Hirt.

(source: Reuters)