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Stocks drop from record highs ahead of US inflation data

The world's stocks retreated from their recent tech-driven record highs, on Friday, ahead of U.S. Inflation data which will feed the Federal Reserve’s increasingly politicised interest rate plans.

The traders were looking to square up their positions after a bullish month in global equity markets. This was despite bond market concerns over Donald Trump's decision to fire Fed policymaker Lisa Cook and the renewed political tensions in France.

The euro and Europe's STOXX600 share index both fell and were headed for their first weekly loss in four while the 0.6% drops on France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX set them up for trend-defying month drops.

Michael Metcalfe, State Street's global macro strategy head, said that it was the very first time since a long time that political risks were on the increase after a period when international investors poured money into the area.

Metcalfe asked, "Do you want to take on the risk of the Fed's independence in the dollar or do you want to take on the risk of the fiscal risk with the euro?" This week, it appears to be a draw.

The key European 30-year bond rates are also expected to see their largest monthly increases since March. The biggest move was in France where Francois Bayrou, the Prime Minister, has scheduled a vote of confidence for September 8, which many expect to lose.

The spread France pays to Germany on 10-year debt, which was 78 basis points last week, has risen over the past two weeks.

The UK Bank Share Index fell by 1.4% after an influential think-tank suggested that the government might tax banks based on Bank of England Reserves.

Overnight, Asia's markets were mixed. Chinese shares had their best month for almost a full year, with a gain of more than 10%, on the hope that its economy and especially the tech sector is improving.

The Nikkei, Japan's largest stock index, ended the day down. However it has also risen 4% this August. It is now on a five-month streak of unbroken gains.

In China, the STAR 50 Index, which is a tech-focused index, fell 1.7% after it soared over 7% the previous session. Shares in Cambricon Technologies, a chip company, also dropped more than 6% following a warning to investors via a stock exchange filing citing a steep rise in their stock prices since the end of July.

Frank Benzimra is the head of Asia equity strategies at Societe Generale.

WAITING ON PCE

The focus of the market now shifts to the release of U.S. PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Khoon Goh is the head of Asia Research at ANZ. He said that analysts will be watching to see if trade tariffs are starting to have an impact.

There are three key pieces of information ahead of the FOMC meeting in September. The PCE is the first, followed by the payrolls data next week and the CPI.

According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in a 85% chance that rates will be cut in September. This is up from 63% one month ago.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he plans to begin cutting interest rates in the next month, and "fully anticipates" further rate cuts. This will bring the Fed’s policy rate to a more neutral setting.

On Friday, the expectation of an imminent Fed rate cut left the dollar in a position to fall 2% monthly against a basket currency.

The euro last fell 0.1% to $1.1677. This was largely due to political and fiscal concerns in France. Sterling, however, eased by 0.2%, falling from $1.3477 to $1.3477. However, it was still on track for a gain of over 2% in the month.

Dollar also faced headwinds due to concerns about Fed independence, as President Donald Trump intensifies his campaign to exert greater influence over monetary policies. This includes his latest attempt at firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Cook filed a suit on Thursday, claiming that Trump does not have the power to remove Cook from her office.

Brent crude futures fell 0.6% on Friday to $68.20 per barrel. U.S. crude dropped to $64.21 a barrel.

Bitcoin fell 2%, to just over 110,000 dollars per ounce. Safe-haven gold dropped 0.2%, to $3,408.78.

(source: Reuters)