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Russian rouble weakens against US dollar after fresh EU sanctions
The Russian rouble fell against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan on Friday, after the European Union approved its 18th package against Russia for its war in Ukraine. This included measures against its energy industry. According to LSEG's data compiled from over-the counter quotes, as of 1245 GMT the rouble had fallen 0.8%, or 78.70 dollars per rouble. The rouble has risen by about 45% versus the dollar since January. The rouble remained strong, even though Donald Trump's attitude toward Russia has changed in recent weeks. Analysts say the new EU sanctions won't have much impact. More foreign currency sales from the central bank are supporting the rouble. "Sanctions may increase pressure on Russia's economy, but they could have a limited effect." In a recent research note, Russian Agricultural Bank analysts stated that Russia would continue to reorient their exports toward Asia. The EU has decided to set a price cap for Russian crude oil at 15% less than its average market price. However, Russia has managed to sell the majority of its oil over the previous cap because the current mechanism leaves it unclear as who is responsible for its enforcement. The last time that the rouble was affected by Western sanctions, it was in November 2024 when the U.S. sanctioned Gazprombank which dealt with Russia's energy trading. Early this year, the rouble rose against all major currencies, largely due to hopes of a peace agreement with Ukraine, mediated by the United States, but those hopes have since vanished. The rouble fell by 0.8% against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia. It now stands at 10.94. (Reporting and editing by Gleb Brnski)
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Chevron wins arbitration against Exxon over Hess deal, according to analysts.
Chevron is moving forward with its acquisition of Hess for $53 billion after winning a landmark court battle against Exxon Mobil, allowing it to access the largest oil find in decades off of the coast of Guyana. AJAY PARMAR IS THE OIL AND ENERGY TRANSITION ANALYTICS DIRECTOR OF CONSULTANCY ICIS The U.S. oil giant's victory in the arbitration case over the Guyana oil assets is a major win. It opens the door for the acquisition of Hess, which will strengthen Chevron’s upstream presence across Guyana, Canada and U.S. On-shore... We expect the company to further strengthen its portfolio in the coming years." BIRAJ BORKHATARIA, ANALYST AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS We expect Chevron shares to outperform in the next few weeks... now that investors are more confident about the investment case, and can concentrate on the growth of Hess assets as well as free-cash-flow inflections into 2026-2027. Chevron will likely review its synergy targets at (Capital Market Day), which is scheduled for November 12th. Chevron plans to dig deeper into the company's longer-term goals. JASON GABELMAN ANALYST AT TD COWEN Chevron said when it announced the deal that eight assets (Guyana GOA Australia TCO Permian DJ Bakken Eastern Med) were core. This is not clear if it still holds true, as some may see the Bakken area as a potential divestment. "Chord Energy, Devon Energy and other companies have been acquiring in the basin. We expect Chevron to be interested in future opportunities as a consolidator and/or divesting." PHILLIPS JOHNSTON, ANALYST AT CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES The ruling ends a 16-month long saga which began in March 2024 when Exxon attempted to block the merger deal. Since the first announcement on October 23, 20,23, Hess's total shareholder return has been -6.6%, compared to -2.2% for Chevron and +7.7% for Exxon (all before today's trading). Reporting by Seher Daeen, Vallari Srivastava, and Pooja menon in Bengaluru. Editing by Louise Heavens.
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Netflix's failure to ignite the Wall Street market has led to a tepid start for Wall Street
Wall Street was preparing for a calm start to the weekend, as investors considered a week full of mixed economic indicators and earnings reports. Netflix's record-breaking profit also failed to elicit much enthusiasm. At 8:15 am. S&P E-minis rose 4.5 points or 0.07%. Nasdaq E-minis gained 11.75 points or 0.05%. Dow E-minis increased 52 points or 0.12%. Wall Street's record run continued overnight as the S&P and Nasdaq climbed to new highs on the back of upbeat sentiment. Retail sales Jobless Claims The Federal Reserve can now pause to watch for inflation driven by tariffs. Netflix The success of the ride Premarket trading saw its shares fall 2.4% despite the fact that "Squid Game", a game based on squids, is expected to smash earnings expectations and increase revenue forecasts for the year. Heavyweight industrial 3M jumped After raising its profit forecast for the full year, it has seen a 3.3% increase in profits. The company attributes this to aggressive cost-cutting and a greater focus on products with high margins. American Express Outpaced Profit estimates for the second quarter are boosted by strong spending among its cardholders. Its shares increased by 1.1%. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and other major stock indexes are expected to make modest gains in the coming week as investors try to sort through a confusing maze of mixed messages - robust retail sales and a spike up in consumer inflation. Producer prices have also stagnated for the month of June. As the deadline for tariffs loomed, concerns about President Donald Trump's policy on trade lingered behind the scenes, while corporate earnings and economic statistics took the spotlight. Add to the nervousness, Reports of a possible removal Reports that Fed chair Jerome Powell was about to leave office briefly roiled the markets. Trump, however, quickly shot down these reports. "It's all mixed up." "Mixed economic data, Trump criticizing Powell, and tariffs are creating confusion, which is resulting in a lack direction for the markets," said Daniela H. Hathorn, senior analyst at Capital.com. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders see a 57.9% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. A move in July is virtually off the table. Investors also awaited the preliminary reading of July consumer sentiment data, which was released later that day. Christopher Waller, the Federal Reserve Governor, said on Thursday he was backed by tame inflation and mounting economic risks to cut interest rates this month. He also downplayed concerns that tariffs would fuel price increases that will last. LSEG data shows that, as the second quarter earnings season begins, 36 S&P500 companies have already reported their results. Of those, more than 80% exceeded Wall Street's expectations. The price of cryptocurrency stocks increased after the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill to develop a regulatory structure for cryptocurrencies. Robinhood Markets, Coinbase Global and Bitfarms all gained more than 2.6%. Hut 8 also gained 1%. Chevron is moving forward with its acquisition of Hess for $53 billion after winning a landmark court battle against Exxon Mobil. This was to gain access the biggest oil discovery in decades. The shares of Chevron rose by 3.4%, and Hess's rose 7.5%. (Reporting and editing by Maju Samuel in Bengaluru, with Pranav Kashyap reporting from Bengaluru)
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Nordic Industrials reports FX losses as the dollar dents Q2 profits
The second quarter earnings of some of Sweden's largest industrial companies showed that currency fluctuations and tariff uncertainty are weighing on their profits. The first impression is that activity levels are still healthy. However, a weaker U.S. Dollar has affected companies in this quarter. This has eroded profits, even for those companies with strong order books and global presence. After the company missed its expectations, Epiroc shares dropped by 5.5% and landed at the bottom of STOXX 600, the pan-European index, on Friday. Weak demand, pressures on the construction unit and company efforts to improve efficiency were not enough. The earnings of Miner Boliden were also below expectations due to the weakening U.S. Dollar. Boliden’s results were a stark reminder how important the dollar is in Scandinavia, a region that exports heavily. The Swedish miner sells metals in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar falls the value of the products will fall when converted into Swedish crowns. While the demand for industrial components and minerals is still high, SKF and Trelleborg report that clients are delaying non-essential purchases and phasing in investments because of tariff uncertainty. SKF exceeded expectations this quarter but noted a currency headwind that impacted earnings. Atlas Copco has reported lower orders due to the negative currency effects. Its shares dropped nearly 10% on the Friday, their worst trading day in nine years. Trelleborg missed the market expectations for core earnings in the second quarter on Thursday. The company warned that the trade war between President Donald Trump and China was causing customers to be cautious when placing new orders. Analysts say that companies' profit margins have held steady due to their efforts to cut costs, raise prices and increase profits. However, it is uncertain how long these efficiency initiatives will last as rising foreign exchange rates and cost increases eat away at profits.
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After the Russian floods, rescuers saved families and farm animals as well as a pet hamster.
Rescuers brought more than 100 people, their animals, and pets to safety after heavy rains flooded villages in eastern Russia. Rubber dinghies were piloted by emergency crews through flooded streets of settlements in Russia’s Sakha Republic (also known as Yakutia), a vast area larger than Argentina. Some villagers were rescued by piggybacking from windows into boats that were waiting. Video released by the emergency ministry of the region showed that rescuers took in cows as well as hens, and at least one pet Hamster. Scientists say climate change is a major factor in the recent spate of fires and floods that have hit Yakutia. In this fire season, which lasts roughly from May to September, authorities have extinguished 169 forest fires. Aerial footage from this week showed villages submerged by brackish flooding, with only roofs visible among the water. The ministry reported that around a third were children. It added that 93 houses were submerged in eight villages. Reporting by Lucy Papachristou, Writing by Andrew Heavens; Editing By Andrew Heavens
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G20 finance chiefs reach consensus in South Africa, despite US tariff tensions
The finance chiefs of G20 nations were close to agreeing on Friday a position on trade, and other global issues. This would be the first time since Donald Trump won the election and waged a tariff war. To the disappointment of the South African hosts, the G20, which was created as a forum to promote cooperation in the fight against the global financial crisis of 2008, failed to come to a consensus when the finance ministers and central banks met in February. Even though G20 communiqués are not binding and their exact wording is unclear, an agreement in Durban's coastal city would be considered a success. "I don’t think it's secret." "I don't think it's a secret," said Raymond Gilpin, Chief of Strategy, Analysis and Research at the United Nations Development Programme Africa on Friday. Francois-Philippe champagne, Canada's Finance Minister, said late Thursday that he had a cautious optimism about the outcome of the meeting. Unidentified official from another G20 nation expressed a similar optimism. "We need to see the final document, but it is important that we reach a common language and communique," said Eelco Heinen. Dutch Finance Minister EelcoHeinen said that this was an improvement over the previous G20. South Africa has promoted an African agenda under the motto of its presidency "Solidarity Equality Sustainability". Topics include high capital costs and funding climate change actions. The delegates at the meeting tried to reach agreement on the global economic challenges including the uncertainty caused by trade tensions as well as language on climate finance. Officials suggested that the language of the agreement could emphasize the benefits and avoid the term climate change by referring to extreme weather events and not tariffs. Two delegates stated that the biggest challenge was determining what language Washington would accept. This task was made more difficult by the absence from the meeting of U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent. Bessent also skipped the Cape Town meeting in February, to which several officials from China and Japan, as well as Canada, did not attend. Washington will assume its rotating G20 presidency in December. Bessent's absent was not ideal but the U.S. engaged in discussions about trade, global economy, and climate language. A G20 delegate who requested anonymity said that Bessent’s absence wasn’t ideal. Tariff Threats The finance ministers of Brazil, China and India as well as France, Russia, and France's Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago also missed Durban, but South Africa's Central Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago stated that it was important to have all G20 nations represented. The meeting takes place in the shadow of Trump’s tariff policies, which have ripped up global trade rules and clouded economic forecasts. Lars Klingbeil, the German Finance Minister, said that he told his counterparts in the Group of Seven Major Economies on Friday the need to end the global trade dispute quickly. The G7 talks were held on the sidelines to the G20. "What I took away from this is I heard a lot countries advocating free trade and its importance. It is under pressure at the moment. The Dutch finance minister stated that it was not good for the global economy.
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Russian seaborne diesel imports from July 1-15 fell 6% on a monthly basis, according to data
According to LSEG data and other market sources, the Russian seaborne exports of diesel and gasoline fell by 6% in the first 15 day period of July compared to the same period in 2006. Refinery maintenance and a strong domestic demand affected the supply. According to industry sources, calculations have shown that the offline capacity of Russia's primary oil refineries has increased by 20% to 3.9 millions metric tons in July, which includes maintenance at several large and mid-size refining plants. Refineries use less feedstock when idle capacity increases. In the first 15 days in July, diesel loadings through the Russian Baltic Port of Primorsk - the largest outlet of ULSD exports in the country - reached 470,000 tonnes, a 28% drop from the same period last month. Turkey has been the number one destination for Russian port diesel and gasoil exports so far this July. It takes about 44% or approximately 640,000 metric tonnes of total supplies. LSEG shipping statistics show that demand was strong, as it increased 52% between June 1-15. In the first 15 days in July, diesel loadings from Russia into Brazil were only 110,00 metric tons. This is a 56% decrease month-on-month. LSEG data indicates that about 180,000 tonnes of diesel and gasoline from Russian ports is waiting to be discharged or ordered for further destinations during ship-to-ship transfer near the Cypriot Port of Limassol. Market sources say that Russian gasoil and diesel exports may increase in the second half as some refineries finish maintenance. All shipping data is based upon cargo departure dates. David Goodman, Editor in Moscow (Reporting)
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Global shares rise as US consumer confidence holds steady, but yen falls ahead of Japan's vote
The global shares are on track to gain weekly gains this Friday, as strong U.S. corporate earnings and economic data released in the last week have tempered concerns about tariffs for now. Meanwhile, the yen is heading towards a second consecutive weekly loss before a crucial legislative election on Sunday in Japan. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, thanks to stronger than expected retail sales data and claims for unemployment benefits, which suggest modest improvements in the economy. MSCI's global stock index edged up by 0.2% on the Friday, and is on track to gain 0.6% on a weekly basis. Asian stocks outside Japan rose 0.9% for the day, while European shares were largely flat. Wall Street futures are also flat before the opening. Eren Osman is the managing director of wealth at Arbuthnot Latham. He said that a solid start to earnings in the U.S., with companies like streaming giant Netflix exceeding forecasts, supports investor confidence. "We are pretty positive on the macro-background (in the U.S.)... We see some scope for growth slowing, but nothing material, and this is giving the markets a nice boost," Osman added, adding that the full potential impact of U.S. Tariffs remains in focus. Next week, Alphabet and Tesla will be among the companies that report their half-year results. This will test the mood of the market. The oil prices rose on Friday, as investors considered new European Union sanctions for Russia. These include measures that aim to deal further blows against Russia's energy and oil industries. U.S. crude climbed 1% to $68.19 a barrel, while Brent rose 0.8% to $70.06 per barrel. The yen is broadly unchanged at 148.5 dollars per yen, but it has been about 0.7% weaker in this week's polls after they showed that the coalition of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Shiba was in danger to lose its majority in Sunday's upper house elections. The data released on Friday revealed that Japan's core rate of inflation decreased in June, due to a temporary reduction in utility bills. However, it remained above the central banks 2% target. Ishiba has been losing popularity because of the rising cost of living. This includes the price of rice. Jayati Bharadwaj is the head of FX Strategy at TD Securities. She said that if PM Ishiba resigns due to an election loss, USDJPY would easily rise above 149.7, as this would bring about an initial period political turmoil. The JPY could recover from its recent dramatic weakness, if the ruling alliance wins and can make rapid progress on a deal with Trump. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% at 98.285, although it was still on track for a second consecutive weekly gain of around 0.4%. This is a rebound from the 3-1/2-year low reached over two weeks ago. Fed Governor Christopher Waller continued to say on Thursday that he believes the central bank should reduce interest rates by the end of the month, despite the fact that most officials have not expressed a desire to do so. Treasury yields in the United States were slightly lower. Benchmark 10-year yields fell nearly 3 basis points, to 4.44%. Two-year yields were also 3 bps lower at 3.89%. The spot gold price increased by 0.4%, to $3353 per ounce.
Stocks reach record highs ahead of US payrolls; UK bonds remain steady
The dollar strengthened on Thursday, ahead of important U.S. employment data. In Europe, the bond markets in Britain were stable after a previous sell-off triggered by debt concerns.
The bulls got a boost overnight from a deal reached between the United States, and Vietnam before the deadline for all U.S. tariffs to be implemented next week. This follows frantic trading in recent weeks.
The pan-European STOXX 600 Index advanced 0.4%. MSCI's 47-country main world share gauge is now at its seventh all-time high in eight sessions, and the dollar is close to ending a 4-day slide.
The bonds of Britain recovered some of the heavy losses they suffered a day before due to uncertainty about Finance Minister Rachel Reeves future. However, they remain weaker than their recent levels.
The 20-year bond yield, which is an indicator of UK government borrowing costs over a longer period, has eased by eight basis points since its highest spike on Wednesday in October 2022, during Liz Truss' ill-fated tenure as premier.
The UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' tearful appearance in parliament has sparked doubt about her future, and Britain's finances. After the government was forced into abandoning billions of pounds of welfare spending reductions, it is unclear what will happen to Reeves.
Susannah Streeter is the head of money markets and financial services at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The focus was also on the U.S. Payrolls Report, which will guide ongoing debates on whether and when the Federal Reserve cuts U.S. Interest Rates.
Analysts predict a rise in jobs of 110.000 in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4,3%. But the stakes are high following a surprise drop in the private sector payrolls in the past two years.
The traders were also watching to see if the tax and spending bill of U.S. president Donald Trump was passed by Congress within the next 24 hour. According to analysts, the bill will add $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years to the United States national debt of $36 trillion.
Wall Street closed Wednesday with record highs, after Trump announced the U.S. has struck a deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff for exports into the U.S. This is still higher than previous tariffs, which were as high as 46%.
Vietnamese shares rose 0.5%, the most since April 2022. However, the dong currency fell to a record low at 26,229 dollars per dong.
Shane Oliver is the chief economist of AMP. He said, "More deals will be announced soon, but the tariff agreement with Vietnam (20%) does not augur very well. That or even higher could be the norm in some countries, including Europe and Japan."
In fact, Japan invoked its national interests when talks with the U.S. stalled, and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung stated on Thursday that U.S. Tariff negotiations looked difficult, but he couldn't say if they could be concluded by next Tuesday.
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index closed 0.3% higher. China's blue chip index rose 0.6% as weak services data led to expectations of further stimulus. Japan's Nikkei, meanwhile, finished flat.
In Europe, Nasdaq and S&P futures were also broadly flat.
JOBS RISK
The dollar hovered just above its three-year low versus a basket of major counterparts, up by 0.1% on the day. After a 0.8% drop on Wednesday, the pound recovered 0.2% and reached $1.3662.
The U.S. payroll figures will be a major risk factor for the markets.
The Federal Reserve's majority members have said that they can wait to cut rates until they are able to gauge the impact of tariffs in real terms on inflation.
Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said, "These labour-market indicators warn that the risk of a spike in unemployment to 4,4%, which would be the highest rate since October 2021, has increased." This would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July to 70%.
Futures indicate that the Fed is only 25% likely to cut rates this month. The Fed hasn't eased its policy in any way this year. This angered Trump, who reiterated on Wednesday his call for Jerome Powell, the Chair, to resign.
Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell since his January return to the White House for failing to lower borrowing costs. Trump said that rates should be lowered to 1%, from the current Fed benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50%.
UBS' survey of reserve managers on Thursday revealed that two thirds believe the Fed's independence is in danger and nearly half believe the U.S. rule of law may be deteriorating to the point where it could influence their asset allocation.
The Treasuries Market was nervous before the data, as a poor jobs report could send yields sharply down. The yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3 basis points, to 4.265%, and the yields on 2-year Treasury bonds dropped 2 bps, to 3.772%.
Oil prices dropped on the commodities market after a 3% increase overnight, as Iran stopped cooperating with U.N.'s nuclear watchdog.
Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $68,64 per barrel. U.S. crude oil was down 0.7% on the day. Gold prices fell 0.1%, to $3352 per ounce. Andy Bruce contributed additional reporting; Emelia Sithole Matarise edited the article.
(source: Reuters)