Latest News
-
Angola's Finance Minister says that country stress testing for lower oil prices and IMF program is more likely
Angola has been running stress tests in order to assess the impact of a drop in oil prices on the government's finances. Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa announced on Friday that this situation would make a request for IMF loans more likely. The second-largest crude oil exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa has built its budget for 2025 on an oil price per barrel of $70, but Brent oil futures briefly fell below $60 after U.S. president Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2nd. The contract closed at $66.91 per barrel on Friday. Daves de Sousa said in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington that "we are rolling out stress tests scenarios." De Sousa explained that a small decline in oil could lead to a temporary freeze on some expenditures, but a drop of $45 would require an additional budget. She said that the government was working on measures to reduce the impact of lower prices of oil on revenue, improve tax administration, and increase enforcement of property taxes. Many smaller and riskier economies, including Angola have been affected by the recent volatility in fixed income markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries. Angola was forced to pay $200m earlier this month when JPMorgan issued an margin call on its 1 billion total return swap, a loan that the lender issued in December and which was backed by dollar bonds of the country. De Sousa stated that she was in discussions with JPMorgan about measures that could be taken to avoid another margin payment and that neither investors nor rating agencies had given her any negative feedback on the payment. She said that there were no negative connotations. Instead, they were surprised at how quickly we had been able to raise such a large amount of money. The government is currently examining the possibility of requesting an IMF financing program. De Sousa, when asked about Chinese loans backed with oil, said that the government would have to pay another $8 billion. It expected to be able do so by 2028, rather than 2030-2031 as it had previously predicted. Angola is also borrowing more money, mainly from China's EXIM Bank, but this money was not secured by collateral, it was concessional, and it had been allocated to specific projects, such as improving internet capability in rural areas, or improving education. De Sousa stated that Angola would love to tap into international capital markets once again, but does not plan to do so for the time being. We want to go on the market but with the way things are going, this isn't the right time. We will keep an eye on it to make sure we are prepared for the next time. De Sousa said that officials from the Trump administration had confirmed in Washington, in meetings with the public, their commitment to fund the Lobito Rail Corridor without specifying the exact amount. The project is designed to transport vital minerals from central Africa's copperbelt into the West. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Karin Strohecker)
-
Reliance Results and foreign inflows boost sentiment
Indian shares rose Monday after heavyweight Reliance Industries reported earnings that were better than expected. Continued foreign inflows also helped to lift sentiment. As of 10:33 a.m. IST, the BSE Sensex was up 0.98% at 79,989.97 and the Nifty 50 rose 0.9% to 24,255.55. Reliance Industries accounted for a third (or about 330 points) of the Nifty's gain. The oil-to-telecom company jumped by 3% to a six-month-high after exceeding analysts' expectations on quarterly earnings. Morgan Stanley wrote in a report that "RIL's analysts meeting had a positive tone regarding the outlook of consumer retail growth returning to double digits, and domestic fuel sales increasing. They also provided details on the ramp-up for the new energy sector." It said that this is a catalyst for a stock re-rating as it represents the end of a cycle of earnings downgrades. Except for IT, all major sectors rose on Monday. The mid-cap and small-cap indices both rose by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Data showed that foreigners bought Indian stocks in the amount of 324.65 billion rupies ($3.80 billion) during the past eight days, despite the escalating tensions with Pakistan. VK Vijayakumar is chief investment strategist of Geojit Investments. He said that the major factor in the resilience of the markets was the foreign buying, due to the relative performance of U.S. bonds, stocks and the dollar. Heavyweight financials with significant exposure to foreign investors rose by 0.8%. ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank saw gains of 1.6% and 1% respectively. Mahindra & Mahindra, among other stocks rose 1.8%. It was also one of the top three gainers on Nifty after it announced its plans to purchase a majority stake in SML Isuzu at a price of 5.55 billion rupees. SML Isuzu, however, fell 10% because the deal valued shares at a discount of 63.3% to Friday's close.
-
Reliance's growth is boosted by telecom and retail success in India
Reliance Industries, India's largest company, jumped by 3% Monday after analysts praised the strength of its retail and telecom businesses following a quarter profit beat. They also upgraded the stock based on positive growth prospects. The Indian Nifty 50 index's top gainers were shares of Mukesh Ambani's conglomerate, led by the billionaire Mukesh. They rose up to 3.4% and reached their highest level since late October. Antique Broking stated in a report that "stock valuation has become attractive." "The telecom outlook looks good with strong subscriber gains and a second round of tariff increases over the next 12-15 month." Reliance reported a profit for the fourth quarter that was above expectations, thanks to a strong performance in its retail and telecom businesses. LSEG data shows that out of 32 analysts who cover the stock, thirteen have increased their price targets as a result of the results, while eleven have upgraded their ratings. Reliance, the third-heaviest share on the Nifty index, rose 0.7% in the last day. The Nifty has risen by over 2% in 2025, but its shares have increased by about 11%. Jefferies cited tariff increases and the possible listing of the Telecom arm as triggers for shares in the current financial year.
-
MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets want more signals, less noise in trade
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week has started off in a quiet manner, as President Trump is more focused on his disappointment over Russia than his trade war. The White House has communicated on trade with a lot of noise, rather than a clear message. Rollins, the Agriculture Secretary, told TV that they speak with China daily, which was likely news in Beijing. Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, says he did not discuss tariffs with Chinese officials. He also does not know if Trump spoke to Xi as he had claimed. The White House is reportedly planning to hold trade talks every week with six different countries until Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. It's a bit optimistic given that it usually takes 18 months to negotiate a deal and even longer to pass one. Markets are currently assuming that they have reached the peak of tariffs and Trump is forced to lower them on China. This is especially true after major U.S. retail chains warned Trump last week that their shelves will soon be empty if he doesn't. Barclays analysts believe that a 60% tariff on China is likely, a 10% tariff on everyone else, and a 25% sectoral tax, with some exceptions. They note that even this would be worse than the worst-case scenario for 2025. It could be that analysts are optimistic about earnings, but the Wall St futures have fallen around 0.5%. This week, 180 S&P companies, including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, will account for more than 40% the market value of the index. Apple's iPhone sales outlook and the impact tariffs will have on its vast supply chain are likely to be of great interest. Data-wise, the euro zone and U.S. reports on inflation this week will be dovish in terms of policy. The same is true for the Q1 U.S. Gross Domestic Product report, where an increase in imports - notably gold – will have a negative impact on the headline number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate predicts a 0.4% drop in GDP annualised, even excluding gold. The Friday payroll numbers are more timely, and they should help refine bets on a Fed rate cut in June. The Fed's current estimate is around 63%. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Reinn will be making appearances - Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
-
China's crude storage grew in March, reversing an earlier draw: Russell
In March, China's refineries produced the most oil in an entire year. However, the amount of crude added to inventories rose to its highest level in almost three years due to a surge in imports. According to calculations based upon official data, China's crude surplus reached 1.74 million barrels a day (bpd). This is the highest level since June 2023. In March, refiners had a large surplus of crude oil available after they had drained their stockpiles during the first two months of this year when imports of oil were low due to the high prices at the time of cargo arrangements. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made by subtracting the amount processed from the total crude oil available from both imports and domestic production. According to data released by the government on April 16, refining processed 14.85 millions bpd during March. This is up 0.4% compared to the same month of 2024. In March, crude imports reached 12.11 million barrels per day (bpd), up 5% on the same month last year and the highest level since August 2023. According to records, domestic production rose 3.5% in March to 4,48 million bpd, the highest since the middle of 2011. After subtracting the volume of processing, 16.59 million bpd is available for refiners. China's refiners used up their inventories for the first time since 18 months in the first two-month period of 2025. They processed about 30,000 barrels per day more than they could get from crude imports or domestic production. The massive surplus in march means that there were 580,000 bpd of crude oil available for the first three months, more than what was being processed. The story of the world's largest crude importer for March is that both the imports and the refinery processing were stronger than they had been in the previous two months. It is unclear whether the performance of March was a result of improved demand in the second largest economy in the world, or if it was more driven by temporary factors. IRAN IMPORTS The surge in imports of crude oil from Iran and Russia was the main reason for this rebound. Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimated that imports from Iran reached 1.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in March. This is a 20% increase from the 1.43 million barrels per day of February and reflects a five-month record. The increase in Iranian imports was driven largely by the expectation that the United States would introduce new measures targeting vessels carrying Iranian oil. This led China's refiners stock up on Iranian oil before new sanctions were implemented. Imports of Russian crude oil also increased as refiners began using non-sanctioned tanks to transport cargoes. This allowed them to avoid the sanctions that former U.S. president Joe Biden imposed just before he passed Donald Trump over in January. March's crude imports came at a time when global prices were also easing. Brent futures, the benchmark for 2025, went from a high of $82.63 per barrel on January 15 to less than $70 in early March. China's refiners are more likely to increase crude purchases when prices fall and reduce imports when prices rise. This was the case in the first two month of this year. The price of crude oil has fallen further since March. It reached a five-year high on April 8, at $61.34 per barrel, as concerns about the global economy grew amid Trump's escalating tariff war. It may help import volumes in the coming months. However, it will also depend on how fast Trump's massive tariffs on Chinese imports translate into a lower fuel demand when manufacturing and shipping volume declines. The higher processing rates in March were likely due to the increased run rate at smaller independent plants, as well as by the launch of a new unit by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical. If the Chinese economy is able to navigate the tariff storm, it will determine whether or not refinery volumes can continue to rise. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
-
China's steel production is reportedly being cut, according to new rumours.
Iron ore prices dropped on Monday due to renewed rumours that China would cut crude steel production and contradictory statements by U.S. officials and Chinese officials regarding trade negotiations. As of 0258 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.7% lower. It was 709 yuan (US$97.20) per metric ton. The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.07% to $98.35 per ton. The market has resumed talking about China's plans to reduce crude steel production by 50 million tonnes this year. This will increase steel prices and pressure the prices of steelmaking material. Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's largest listed steelmaker, says the chances of a reduction in crude steel production this year are very high. However, it is unlikely to happen between April and May. Requests for comment were not immediately responded to by the China Iron and Steel Association, a state-sponsored organization and state planner. Wu Wenzhang is the chairman of the consultancy Steelhome. According to the state-backed China Metallurgy News, the steel market will be in balance if crude steel production this year falls by 50 million tons compared to last year. Wu said that steel consumption is expected to drop by 30 million tons from 2024 this year. Steel exports are also expected to fall between 15 and 25 millions tons. Markets are also rattled by the conflicting signals coming from U.S. president Donald Trump and China regarding negotiations to deescalate tensions in trade. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, did not support Trump's claim that talks with China are underway on Sunday. Beijing denied earlier that any negotiations were taking place. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 1.25% and 1.27 %, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were flat. Rebar and hot-rolled coil gained 0.81% and 0.42% respectively, while stainless steel and wire rod fell by around 0.1%. Reporting by Michele Pek, Amy Lv and Sumana Nandy; Editing by Sumana Niandy.
-
Oil prices rise despite a gloomy economic outlook and a potential OPEC+ production hike
The oil prices rose in the early trading on Monday, but remained dogged with uncertainty about trade talks between China and the U.S. This clouded the outlook for growth in the world and fuel demand. Meanwhile, the prospect of OPEC+ increasing supply added to the gloom. Brent crude futures were up 22 cents at 0429 GMT, to $67.09 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up 24 cents to 63.326 per barrel. The benchmarks both moved higher in a third session. Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia's online trading platform said: "The lack of news is pushing crude oil prices modestly up as traders are positioned ahead of a potential increase in OPEC+ production from the May 5, 2015 meeting and a substantial production boost in the USA." When they meet on 5 May, some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and their allies are expected to suggest the group increases oil production for a second month in a row. Brent and WTI fell by more than 1 percent last week due to fears of an oversupply, and the potential impact of tariffs. Markets have been rocked with conflicting signals coming from U.S. president Donald Trump and Beijing about the progress being made in de-escalating a trade dispute that threatens global growth. "Market players will continue to look for a thaw of the U.S. - China trade war as a chance to buy," said Vandana Hari. She is the founder of Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analyses. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, did not support Trump's claim that talks with China are in progress. Beijing had earlier denied that any negotiations were underway. Participants at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings and World Bank Spring Meetings stated that Trump's Administration was still conflicted about its demands of trading partners who were hit by his tariffs. Investors will also be watching the nuclear talks that are taking place between Iran and United States this week in Oman. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said that he was "extremely conservative" in his assessment of the outcome of the talks. State media reported that a powerful blast at Iran's largest port, Bandar Abbas, has left at least 40 dead and more than 1,200 injured. Top officials of the Trump administration on Sunday pressed Russia to move forward with a peace agreement following the one-on-one summit between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which took place at the Vatican the day before. Reporting by Mohi N. Narayan, New Delhi; Florence Tan, Singapore; and Lincoln Feast. Editing by Sonali P. and Lincoln F.
-
London metals prices are mixed due to optimism surrounding trade talks
London metals prices were mixed on Monday, as investors found some relief from the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, concerns about fragile negotiations remained. By 0332 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was $9375 per metric ton. China's decision not to impose retaliatory duties on certain U.S. products sparked the thaw. This was seen as an indication that the trade conflict between the two economic giants is easing. Last week, the Trump administration signaled a willingness for a de-escalation of the trade conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump confirmed that tariff talks were in progress with Chinese officials. Investors have closely followed developments in the protracted trade dispute, which has raised fears about a possible global recession. A trader said, "The market's current direction is being driven by the U.S. China trade talks. While there is optimism, we remain cautious because sentiment can change quickly." This trader was referring to the uncertainty that continues to surround the negotiations. Other metals include aluminum, which remained at $2,429 per ton. Zinc fell 0.2% to 2,641, while lead increased 0.4% to 1,952. Tin dropped 0.8% to $30,715, and nickel rose 0.2% to $15,580. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHE) most-traded contract for copper fell by 0.3%, to 77440 yuan (10,615) per ton. SHE aluminum fell by 0.2%, to 19,910 Yuan per ton. Zinc dropped 1%, to 22,525 Yuan. Lead was down by 0.2%, to 16,975 Yuan. Nickel declined 0.8%, to 124 710 Yuan. Tin lost 0.5%, to 260 900 yuan. $1 = 7.2953 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala).
The market is displaying a number of stress indicators
The signs of financial stress have begun to shine brightly as a global rout on the equity markets intensified Monday amid tariff tensions.
Van Luu is the global head of FX strategy and fixed income at Russell Investments.
The asset manager’s gauge of risk aversion for investors, which includes pricing trends and sentiment indicator, is approaching levels seen last in September-October of 2022 when global central banks began an unprecedented rate hike cycle.
Take a look at some of the key indicators that investors are keeping an eye on.
VIX JUMPS
The VIX volatility index - Wall Street's fear gauge - jumped to its highest level ever on Monday, reaching 60 – the highest since August, when global markets began to fall. The VIX volatility index closed above 45 for the first since the 2020 COVID-19 crises, and it was the biggest jump in a single-day since then.
In Europe, an indicator similar to the Euro STOXX Volatility Index was poised for its largest one-day increase in absolute terms since the depths the global financial crisis, October 2008.
DOLLAR DEMAND
The demand for dollars from non-U.S. participants has risen, which is a sign that the market needs cash. The rate of three-month euro cross-currency swaps
JUNK IT
The spreads on junk bonds, which represent the premium that investors receive for holding riskier corporate debt compared with government bonds, are at multi-month highs.
The iTRAXX Crossover Index, an index of European junk bonds with a five-year maturity, jumped above 420 basis point on Monday. It was the largest rise in one day since March 2023, and it reached its highest level since November, that same year. It is also nearly 80 basis point higher than a week earlier.
The ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index, which measures the performance of high-yield bonds in the United States, ended the week with its lowest level since September and its biggest weekly decline since September 2022.
BANKS SLIDE
Share prices of global banks, which are key to the growth and functioning of the world economy, continue to fall steeply.
In the last three trading days, European and Japanese banks have lost roughly 20% each of their value. Japanese banks closed Monday 10% lower, while U.S. bank stocks dropped 15% in the past week.
SWAP SPREADs
Swap spreads are a sign that the pressure is building on the U.S. government bond market. It is the largest in the world with $28 trillion of outstanding debt. The swap spreads capture the premium of the fixed-rate side of an interest rate swap that investors use to hedge rates risk relative bond yields.
U.S. Two-Year Swap Spreads, the difference between the two-year Treasury rate and two-year exchange rates, briefly fell to almost -46% basis points before pulling back at around -24bps. This is near the tightest level since November.
(source: Reuters)