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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets want more signals, less noise in trade
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week has started off in a quiet manner, as President Trump is more focused on his disappointment over Russia than his trade war. The White House has communicated on trade with a lot of noise, rather than a clear message. Rollins, the Agriculture Secretary, told TV that they speak with China daily, which was likely news in Beijing. Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, says he did not discuss tariffs with Chinese officials. He also does not know if Trump spoke to Xi as he had claimed. The White House is reportedly planning to hold trade talks every week with six different countries until Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. It's a bit optimistic given that it usually takes 18 months to negotiate a deal and even longer to pass one. Markets are currently assuming that they have reached the peak of tariffs and Trump is forced to lower them on China. This is especially true after major U.S. retail chains warned Trump last week that their shelves will soon be empty if he doesn't. Barclays analysts believe that a 60% tariff on China is likely, a 10% tariff on everyone else, and a 25% sectoral tax, with some exceptions. They note that even this would be worse than the worst-case scenario for 2025. It could be that analysts are optimistic about earnings, but the Wall St futures have fallen around 0.5%. This week, 180 S&P companies, including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, will account for more than 40% the market value of the index. Apple's iPhone sales outlook and the impact tariffs will have on its vast supply chain are likely to be of great interest. Data-wise, the euro zone and U.S. reports on inflation this week will be dovish in terms of policy. The same is true for the Q1 U.S. Gross Domestic Product report, where an increase in imports - notably gold – will have a negative impact on the headline number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate predicts a 0.4% drop in GDP annualised, even excluding gold. The Friday payroll numbers are more timely, and they should help refine bets on a Fed rate cut in June. The Fed's current estimate is around 63%. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Reinn will be making appearances - Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
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China's crude storage grew in March, reversing an earlier draw: Russell
In March, China's refineries produced the most oil in an entire year. However, the amount of crude added to inventories rose to its highest level in almost three years due to a surge in imports. According to calculations based upon official data, China's crude surplus reached 1.74 million barrels a day (bpd). This is the highest level since June 2023. In March, refiners had a large surplus of crude oil available after they had drained their stockpiles during the first two months of this year when imports of oil were low due to the high prices at the time of cargo arrangements. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made by subtracting the amount processed from the total crude oil available from both imports and domestic production. According to data released by the government on April 16, refining processed 14.85 millions bpd during March. This is up 0.4% compared to the same month of 2024. In March, crude imports reached 12.11 million barrels per day (bpd), up 5% on the same month last year and the highest level since August 2023. According to records, domestic production rose 3.5% in March to 4,48 million bpd, the highest since the middle of 2011. After subtracting the volume of processing, 16.59 million bpd is available for refiners. China's refiners used up their inventories for the first time since 18 months in the first two-month period of 2025. They processed about 30,000 barrels per day more than they could get from crude imports or domestic production. The massive surplus in march means that there were 580,000 bpd of crude oil available for the first three months, more than what was being processed. The story of the world's largest crude importer for March is that both the imports and the refinery processing were stronger than they had been in the previous two months. It is unclear whether the performance of March was a result of improved demand in the second largest economy in the world, or if it was more driven by temporary factors. IRAN IMPORTS The surge in imports of crude oil from Iran and Russia was the main reason for this rebound. Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimated that imports from Iran reached 1.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in March. This is a 20% increase from the 1.43 million barrels per day of February and reflects a five-month record. The increase in Iranian imports was driven largely by the expectation that the United States would introduce new measures targeting vessels carrying Iranian oil. This led China's refiners stock up on Iranian oil before new sanctions were implemented. Imports of Russian crude oil also increased as refiners began using non-sanctioned tanks to transport cargoes. This allowed them to avoid the sanctions that former U.S. president Joe Biden imposed just before he passed Donald Trump over in January. March's crude imports came at a time when global prices were also easing. Brent futures, the benchmark for 2025, went from a high of $82.63 per barrel on January 15 to less than $70 in early March. China's refiners are more likely to increase crude purchases when prices fall and reduce imports when prices rise. This was the case in the first two month of this year. The price of crude oil has fallen further since March. It reached a five-year high on April 8, at $61.34 per barrel, as concerns about the global economy grew amid Trump's escalating tariff war. It may help import volumes in the coming months. However, it will also depend on how fast Trump's massive tariffs on Chinese imports translate into a lower fuel demand when manufacturing and shipping volume declines. The higher processing rates in March were likely due to the increased run rate at smaller independent plants, as well as by the launch of a new unit by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical. If the Chinese economy is able to navigate the tariff storm, it will determine whether or not refinery volumes can continue to rise. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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China's steel production is reportedly being cut, according to new rumours.
Iron ore prices dropped on Monday due to renewed rumours that China would cut crude steel production and contradictory statements by U.S. officials and Chinese officials regarding trade negotiations. As of 0258 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.7% lower. It was 709 yuan (US$97.20) per metric ton. The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.07% to $98.35 per ton. The market has resumed talking about China's plans to reduce crude steel production by 50 million tonnes this year. This will increase steel prices and pressure the prices of steelmaking material. Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's largest listed steelmaker, says the chances of a reduction in crude steel production this year are very high. However, it is unlikely to happen between April and May. Requests for comment were not immediately responded to by the China Iron and Steel Association, a state-sponsored organization and state planner. Wu Wenzhang is the chairman of the consultancy Steelhome. According to the state-backed China Metallurgy News, the steel market will be in balance if crude steel production this year falls by 50 million tons compared to last year. Wu said that steel consumption is expected to drop by 30 million tons from 2024 this year. Steel exports are also expected to fall between 15 and 25 millions tons. Markets are also rattled by the conflicting signals coming from U.S. president Donald Trump and China regarding negotiations to deescalate tensions in trade. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, did not support Trump's claim that talks with China are underway on Sunday. Beijing denied earlier that any negotiations were taking place. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 1.25% and 1.27 %, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were flat. Rebar and hot-rolled coil gained 0.81% and 0.42% respectively, while stainless steel and wire rod fell by around 0.1%. Reporting by Michele Pek, Amy Lv and Sumana Nandy; Editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Oil prices rise despite a gloomy economic outlook and a potential OPEC+ production hike
The oil prices rose in the early trading on Monday, but remained dogged with uncertainty about trade talks between China and the U.S. This clouded the outlook for growth in the world and fuel demand. Meanwhile, the prospect of OPEC+ increasing supply added to the gloom. Brent crude futures were up 22 cents at 0429 GMT, to $67.09 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up 24 cents to 63.326 per barrel. The benchmarks both moved higher in a third session. Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia's online trading platform said: "The lack of news is pushing crude oil prices modestly up as traders are positioned ahead of a potential increase in OPEC+ production from the May 5, 2015 meeting and a substantial production boost in the USA." When they meet on 5 May, some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and their allies are expected to suggest the group increases oil production for a second month in a row. Brent and WTI fell by more than 1 percent last week due to fears of an oversupply, and the potential impact of tariffs. Markets have been rocked with conflicting signals coming from U.S. president Donald Trump and Beijing about the progress being made in de-escalating a trade dispute that threatens global growth. "Market players will continue to look for a thaw of the U.S. - China trade war as a chance to buy," said Vandana Hari. She is the founder of Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analyses. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, did not support Trump's claim that talks with China are in progress. Beijing had earlier denied that any negotiations were underway. Participants at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings and World Bank Spring Meetings stated that Trump's Administration was still conflicted about its demands of trading partners who were hit by his tariffs. Investors will also be watching the nuclear talks that are taking place between Iran and United States this week in Oman. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said that he was "extremely conservative" in his assessment of the outcome of the talks. State media reported that a powerful blast at Iran's largest port, Bandar Abbas, has left at least 40 dead and more than 1,200 injured. Top officials of the Trump administration on Sunday pressed Russia to move forward with a peace agreement following the one-on-one summit between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which took place at the Vatican the day before. Reporting by Mohi N. Narayan, New Delhi; Florence Tan, Singapore; and Lincoln Feast. Editing by Sonali P. and Lincoln F.
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London metals prices are mixed due to optimism surrounding trade talks
London metals prices were mixed on Monday, as investors found some relief from the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, concerns about fragile negotiations remained. By 0332 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was $9375 per metric ton. China's decision not to impose retaliatory duties on certain U.S. products sparked the thaw. This was seen as an indication that the trade conflict between the two economic giants is easing. Last week, the Trump administration signaled a willingness for a de-escalation of the trade conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump confirmed that tariff talks were in progress with Chinese officials. Investors have closely followed developments in the protracted trade dispute, which has raised fears about a possible global recession. A trader said, "The market's current direction is being driven by the U.S. China trade talks. While there is optimism, we remain cautious because sentiment can change quickly." This trader was referring to the uncertainty that continues to surround the negotiations. Other metals include aluminum, which remained at $2,429 per ton. Zinc fell 0.2% to 2,641, while lead increased 0.4% to 1,952. Tin dropped 0.8% to $30,715, and nickel rose 0.2% to $15,580. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHE) most-traded contract for copper fell by 0.3%, to 77440 yuan (10,615) per ton. SHE aluminum fell by 0.2%, to 19,910 Yuan per ton. Zinc dropped 1%, to 22,525 Yuan. Lead was down by 0.2%, to 16,975 Yuan. Nickel declined 0.8%, to 124 710 Yuan. Tin lost 0.5%, to 260 900 yuan. $1 = 7.2953 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala).
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London metals prices fluctuate on optimism surrounding trade talks
London metals prices were mixed on Monday, as investors found some relief from the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, concerns about fragile negotiations lingered. By 0742 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was down by 0.5% to $9,327 per metric tonne. China's decision not to impose retaliatory duties on certain U.S. products sparked the thawing in relations. This was seen as an indication that the trade conflict between the two economic giants may be easing. Last week, the Trump administration signaled a willingness for a de-escalation of the trade conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump confirmed that tariff talks were in progress with Chinese officials. Investors have closely followed developments in the protracted trade dispute, which has raised fears about a possible global recession. A trader said, "The market's current direction is being driven by the U.S. China trade talks. While there is optimism, we remain cautious because sentiment can change quickly." This trader was referring to the uncertainty that continues to surround the negotiations. Other metals saw a 0.1% increase in aluminum to $2.430 per ton. Zinc fell 0.07% to 2.628, while lead increased 0.1% to $1.946. Tin dropped 0.3% to $31,870, and nickel decreased 0.2% to $15,520. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHE) most-traded contract for copper fell by 0.7%, to 77110 yuan per metric ton ($10,567). SHE aluminum fell 0.3%, to 19,900 Chinese yuan per ton. Zinc dropped 1.5%, to 22,405 Yuan. Lead was down by 0.7%, to 16,890 Yuan. Nickel fell 1.1%, to 124,310 Yuan. Tin lost 0.7%, to 260 490 Yuan. $1 = 7.2966 Chinese Yuan Termini (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Violet Li, Lewis Jackson)
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Oil prices rise despite a gloomy economic outlook and a potential OPEC+ production hike
The oil prices rose slightly in the early trading on Monday, but remained under pressure from the uncertainty surrounding trade talks between China and the U.S. This clouded the outlook for the global economy and fuel demand. Meanwhile, the prospect of OPEC+ increasing its supply added to the gloom. Brent crude futures, and U.S. West Texas intermediate crude, both rose for a third day, gaining 9 cents each by 0025 GMT, to $63.11 and $66.96 a barrel. Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia's online trading platform, said that the lack of news was pushing the oil prices higher. Traders are positioned ahead of a potential increase in OPEC+ production from the May 5, 2015 meeting as well as a significant boost in US production. When they meet on 5 May, some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and their allies are expected to suggest the group increases oil production for a second month in a row. Brent and WTI fell by more than 1 percent last week due to fears of an oversupply, and the potential impact of tariffs. Markets have been rocked with conflicting signals coming from U.S. president Donald Trump and Beijing about the progress being made in de-escalating a trade dispute that threatens global growth. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, did not support Trump's claim that talks with China are in progress. Beijing had earlier denied that any negotiations were underway. Participants at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings and World Bank Spring Meetings stated that Trump's Administration was still conflicted about its demands of trading partners who were hit by his tariffs. Investors will also be watching the nuclear talks that are taking place between Iran and United States this week in Oman. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said that he was "extremely conservative" in his assessment of the outcome of the talks. State media reported that a powerful blast at Iran's largest port, Bandar Abbas, has left at least 40 dead and more than 1,200 injured. After a meeting between Trump, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vatican officials the day before, the top officials of the Trump administration demanded that Russia and Ukraine make progress on a deal. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Florence Tan)
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James Hardie's backlash prompts Australian stock exchange to review M&A regulations
ASX, the Australian stock exchange operator, announced on Sunday that they had begun a process to implement their rules for shareholder approvals of mergers and purchases. The ASX announced its decision to review the listing process a day before fibre-cement manufacturer James Hardie said it would conduct a shareholder vote prior to making any decisions to change its ASX listings status. Investors in Australia recently called for a review of the listing rules. They argued that it is unfair that companies are able to issue shares without shareholder approval. James Hardie proposed to acquire AZEK for $8.75 billion, and they said that the deal would dilute the interests of existing shareholders. They also claimed it would alter their rights with no vote. The bourse operator stated that the uproar surrounding James Hardie’s waiver request prompted increased investor interest to strengthen shareholder approval requirements for major transaction involving listed companies. This prompted them to launch a process of review. As of 0026 GMT, shares of James Hardie rose 4.7%.
After conservatives won the election, euro and German stocks rose.
Euro and German stocks rose on Monday, as investors welcomed the election results in Germany that placed centrist parties on course to form a government. However, optimism was dampened by potential tricky economic policy negotiations.
After a steep U.S. stock market sell-off last Friday, European shares edged up while Wall Street Futures also edged upward.
Friedrich Merz is set to be the next German chancellor, after his conservative opposition won Sunday's national elections. Merz is expected to be able form a grand coalition with centre-left Social Democrats even though they came in third behind the far right Alternative for Germany.
Peter Schaffrik is a global macro strategist with RBC Capital Markets. He said, "In the end it was a result which was very close to the most recent exit polls. It should be an outcome that will benefit the market."
The euro reached a monthly high of $1.0528, before falling to $1.0481 in the last trade.
Susannah Streeter is the head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. She said that Merz appears to be determined to lift the debt brake which limits annual borrowings to 0.35% GDP. However, this won't happen easily, as he needs a two thirds majority in parliament.
In early trading, the DAX index in Germany rose 0.73%. The STOXX 600, a pan-European index, rose by 0.19% despite a decline in tech stocks.
As the EU leaders prepare to meet at an extraordinary summit to discuss how to pay for European defense needs and additional support for Ukraine, they begin German coalition talks.
This week marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
WALL STREET STEADIES
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq dropped 2.5% in the past week, its worst three-month period. Losses were led by "Magnificent 7" tech companies.
Wall Street suffered a blow on Friday after a survey of services revealed a shocking drop in activity due to concerns over tariffs and rising costs.
The pullback in the market has raised the stakes of Nvidia's results for Wednesday. Investors are expecting fourth-quarter sales to be around $38.5 billion, and first-quarter guidance to be around $42.5 billion.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve will release its preferred measure of core inflation. It is expected to show that it has slowed down to 2.6% compared to 2.8%. However, tariff concerns could overshadow this result.
The survey, conducted on Friday by the American Consumers Association, showed that inflation expectations in the United States for the next five-year period have risen to 3.5%. This is the highest level since 1995.
Francesco Pesole is a currency strategist with ING.
The dollar index (which tracks the currency against six other currencies) was slightly lower, at 106.48.
After a week of declines, the U.S. dollar rose by 0.17% to 149.54 yen after falling last week due to rising expectations of future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Gold remained strong on commodity markets at $2,946 per ounce after climbing for eight consecutive weeks.
The oil market has shifted in the opposite direction, partly due to speculation that sanctions on Russia could be eased in an eventual peace agreement on Ukraine. This would boost its oil exports.
Brent remained flat at $74.37 per barrel and continued to trade near its lowest level since December.
(source: Reuters)