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Apple rallies as the dollar rises in anticipation of tariffs

Apple rallies as the dollar rises in anticipation of tariffs

Mike Dolan gives us a look at what the U.S. market and the global markets will be like this week. As January comes to an end, the world markets are bracing for the U.S. tariff increases that could come as early as this weekend. This is causing the dollar to rise in anticipation while interest rates in Europe continue to fall.

Apple, the most valuable company in the world, rallied by 4% before today's bell despite the currency market's anxiety. Index futures added to the gains made on Wall Street Thursday. Apple's positive outlook for the future was impressive, even though it missed its quarterly earnings target.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, stole the show yet again yesterday late as he kept the markets guessing on the size of the 25% import tariffs promised on Saturday for Canada and Mexico.

We may or we may not. "We're going make this determination probably tonight," Trump replied when asked if the tariffs would include Canadian and Mexican oil.

Trump stated that the level of North American duty "may or not" increase over time. He said this to encourage the two biggest U.S. trading partner to stop illegal migration and shipments of the drug fentanyl.

The Canadian dollar has fallen to near-five-year lows, after a loss of 1% during a week of lowering the Bank of Canada's rate. The Mexican peso recovered from the steep drop it had experienced in the previous session, but was still on course for its worst performance weekly since October.

The dollar rose more generally, while the euro hit 10-day lows after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter-point on Thursday.

The ECB's easing efforts were justified by the news that the German and French economies contracted in the fourth quarter of last. In addition, January inflation data from France and Germany's main states was also below expectations.

Sources at the ECB said that another rate cut will likely be implemented in March, without much opposition from policymakers. This is before the debate on future easing intensifies. Some reports suggested that the central bank might stop referring to its monetary policies as "restrictive", after the March decision.

European stocks continued to rise to new heights in the midst of earnings season. Novartis was up 2.4% following a big quarterly income boost.

The S&P500's near 8% dollar gain in January is nearly twice as much as the gains of euro zone stocks.

The earnings deluge on Wall Street and the curveball from China this week on the DeepSeek AI model has distracted some from the macro-political picture.

Intel's report also received a positive response overnight. IBM's 13% increase in earnings on Thursday was its largest daily percentage gain since 1998. IBM lost 6% to Microsoft due to cloud computing concerns, but it also saw a 13% gain.

Big Oil dominates the corporate updates of Friday. Chevron's earnings were below expectations as its refining division suffered a first-time loss since 2020 due to weak margins.

The Fed was on hold and the economic data were mixed. The fourth-quarter growth in gross domestic product slowed down to 2.25 percent, as was expected following the trade report of the previous day, but jobless claims for each week fell more than predicted.

The Fed will release its preferred personal consumption expenditures inflation indicator (PCE) on Friday. The annual core PCE inflation rate should have remained at 2.8%.

Treasury yields in other countries were slightly higher than 4.5%.

Investors sought out gold as a safe haven due to increased U.S. trade concerns.

The following developments should help to guide U.S. stocks on Friday:

(source: Reuters)