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Saudi Arabia cuts crude oil costs for Asia amidst nascent demand recovery: Russell

It's constantly appealing to attempt and overanalyse modifications in the crude oil market and Saudi Arabia's choice to cut its main costs for Asian clients to the lowest level in four years is one such example.

Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil business of the world's biggest oil exporter, stated on Sunday it is lowering the official market price (OSPs) for refiners in Asia, which buy about 70% of the kingdom's crude.

The OSP for the benchmark Arab Light grade for January-loading cargoes was reduced to a premium of 90 cents a. barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down 80 cents from a premium. of $1.70 for December.

This is the lowest premium for Arab Light since January. 2021, at a time when global need was weak as an outcome of the. COVID-19 pandemic.

The lowering of Saudi OSPs is frequently viewed by market. experts as an indication of two things, namely weak need and an. effort to regain market share from rivals.

There is certainly a case to be produced both of these. elements.

There is little doubt that demand in Asia has actually been. disappointing in 2024, with it all but particular that the. continent's imports will decline this year from 2023.

For the very first 11 months of 2024 Asia's imports were 26.58. million barrels per day (bpd), according to data assembled by. LSEG Oil Research Study.

This is down 310,000 bpd from the 26.89 million bpd for the. first 11 months in 2023.

However, there are some indications that need has picked up,. with LSEG information showing November imports at 27.05 million bpd,. the greatest in six months and up practically 1.0 million bpd from. October's 26.06 million bpd.

The gain was led by China, with LSEG showing the world's. most significant oil importer saw arrivals of 11.77 million bpd in. November, up from 10.57 million bpd in October.

It could be argued that the Saudi choice to cut OSPs for. January is to try and guarantee that this nascent recovery in. need continues.

The lower OSPs may also show that the U.S. dollar has. strengthened in recent weeks, suggesting that lower oil costs in. dollars aren't fully reflected in regional currencies in key Asian. buyers.

Since the recent peak in Brent futures of $81.16 a. barrel on Oct. 7, the cost in U.S. dollars has decreased 12.4%. to end at $71.12 on Dec. 6.

Nevertheless, in Chinese yuan terms it is just down 9.7% over the. exact same duration and in Indian rupees by 11.6%.

MARKET SHARE

The view that Aramco is trying to gain back market share by. reducing OSPs is likewise popular, but not necessarily one that. withstands analysis.

Saudi Arabia is the greatest provider to Asia and has actually seen. its market share recover in recent months.

From a low of 16.7% of Asia's imports in August, Saudi. Arabia's share has risen to 20.8% in September, 18.3% in October. and 21.0% in November.

Russia, the 2nd most significant supplier to Asia, has actually seen its. market share go from a 2024 high of 15.8% in June to 14.5% in. September, 15.7% in October and just 12.9% in November,. according to LSEG data.

Perhaps the most significant element driving Aramco's decision to. lower its OSP is the requirement to keep its oil at competitive levels. versus competing grades.

This isn't a concern for the bulk of Middle Eastern crude,. which tends to price off movements in Aramco's OSPs.

But it is more of an element for crudes that price versus. Brent, such as those from West Africa.

The premium that Brent commands over Middle East criteria. Dubai has actually been narrowing in current months, meaning Brent is. ending up being less expensive on a relative basis.

The premium << DUB-EFS-1M > dropped to $1.08 a barrel on Dec. 6, the lowest since Sept. 30 and down from a recent peak of. $ 2.39 on Oct. 4.

By decreasing its OSPs for Asia, Aramco keeps its crude. pricing more competitive with grades from exporters such as. Angola and Nigeria.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)