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Russia's crude oil and LNG shipments to Asia slip a little in 2024: Russell

Asia's imports of Russian crude oil and melted natural gas are set to log little declines this year and while coal had a bigger drop, there's little evidence that Western sanctions are working well.

Russia has concerned depend on Asia, the world's most significant purchaser of energy products, to absorb freights that are no longer able to be sold to buyers in Europe and elsewhere as an outcome of sanctions put against Moscow in the wake of the February 2022 intrusion of Ukraine.

China and India became significant buyers of Russian crude, coal and LNG after the invasion, taking freights due to the fact that of the discounts on offer.

This dynamic has actually mostly continued in 2024, and while there is likely to be some small decline in Asia's imports of Russian energy products, it's difficult to say that this is since of sanctions or since of other elements, such as slow growth in China, the world's second-largest economy.

Asia's imports of seaborne crude from Russia, the world's. second-largest exporter, are on track to drop to 161.2 million. metric heaps in 2024, below 170.6 million in 2023, according. to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

In barrels each day (bpd) terms, Asia's seaborne imports from. Russia are likely to come in around 3.22 million bpd this year,. down 5.6% or 190,000 bpd from the 3.41 million bpd in 2023.

The bulk of the decrease is since China, the world's. most significant crude importer, saw arrivals from Russia drop 100,000. bpd to 1.24 million bpd in 2024.

South Korea was responsible for the other major decrease in. imports from Russia, which dropped from around 100,000 bpd in. 2023 to simply 29,000 bpd in 2024.

India, which now counts Russia as its leading crude provider,. saw mainly constant imports of 1.76 million bpd in 2024, down. somewhat from 1.79 million bpd in 2023.

LNG, COAL

Asia's imports of Russian LNG are likewise likely to be lower in. 2024 than the previous year, but just by a tiny 1.6%.

An overall of 14.93 million lots of Russian LNG is most likely to. get here in Asia this year, below 15.17 million in 2023,. according to Kpler data.

China is the major purchaser of Russian LNG, with 6.65 million. heaps this year, up a touch from 6.63 million in 2023.

The other significant importer is Japan, which purchases Russian LNG as. an outcome of an ownership stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG job.

Japan's imports of 5.47 million loads in 2024 are somewhat. down from the 5.90 million in 2023.

However, Japan's imports of all grades of Russian coal did. drop significantly in 2024, moving 75% to 610,000 heaps from. 2.42 million 2023.

Overall, Asia's imports of seaborne Russian coal dropped to. 102.3 million heaps, down 19.3% from the 126.8 million in 2023.

The decrease was largely driven by China, with imports. falling to 45.01 million loads in 2024 from 59.19 million in. 2023.

This is likely a price-driven dynamic as China's coal. imports have increased strongly up until now in 2024, with official. customizeds information showing a 13.5% boost in the first 10 months of. the year to 435.4 million heaps.

Russian coal needs to complete versus overland materials from. Mongolia, along with seaborne grades from Indonesia and. Australia, with prices from the 2 biggest exporters of the. fuel trending lower over the course of 2024.

Putting together Asia's imports of Russian energy. products and it's clear that the decline in volumes in 2024. is little, and even the somewhat bigger drop for coal is. described by price competitors, instead of by any sanctions. steps.

It's also likely that for crude oil, Russia has needed to use. discount rates in order to preserve volumes. The concern then. ends up being whether the discount was deep sufficient to trigger Moscow any. genuine pain from lost income.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)