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China's coal imports in April fell 16% on an annual basis
Customs data released on Friday showed that China's coal imports dropped 16% in April compared to the same period last year, due to lower domestic prices. According to the General Administration of Customs, imports were down 37.83 millions metric tons from 45.25 in April 2024. This was the second consecutive month that China's imports of coal fell year-over-year. They had increased previously every month from November 2022. January and February are excluded because they are affected by Lunar New Year holidays. Imported coal's profit margins are being cut by the domestic price, which is at a four-year low. According to the Bohai Rim Bay thermal coal index, China's price for medium grade coal with a heat rating of 5,500 kilocalories/kg was 648 Yuan ($89.55/metric ton) on 8 May. This was the lowest price since March 2021, and it was down from 676 Yuan a few months earlier. In March, domestic production hit a monthly record of 440.58 tons. Imports also increased in April 2024, partly because of a series fatal mine accidents that forced the closure of mines in Shanxi for inspection and lowered domestic production. The data revealed that coal imports for the first four-month period of 2025 were 152.67 millions metric tons. This was down 5.3% compared to 161.15 tons a year ago. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Colleen howe)
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Investors weigh Sino-US trade negotiations, slow demand and iron ore rangebound
Investors weighed the prospects of an easing in Sino-U.S. tensions with the seasonal weakness of demand from China, which is a major consumer. As of 0241 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.43% lower. It was 697 yuan (US$96.14) per metric ton. The benchmark June Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.45% to $96.95 per ton. Donald Trump, President of the United States, predicted that the punitive U.S. Tariffs of 145% on Beijing would most likely be reduced. This is the latest indication of a softerening of the tone between these two superpowers. The United States has revealed details of a brand new trade agreement between the United States and Britain. Analysts and traders remained cautious ahead of this weekend's Sino-U.S. negotiations. Analysts said that while near-term ore consumption remained strong, signs of a weakening steel downstream consumption threatened to limit any potential upside. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production - which is typically used to gauge demand for iron ore - increased 0.1% to 2,46 million tonnes week-on-week as of May 8. This was the highest level since October 2023. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have also lost ground. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Rebar fell by 0.98%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.75%. Wire rod dropped 1.95%. Stainless steel was down 0.16%.
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Gold drops as US-UK deal weighs on safe haven appeal; US and China talks in focus
Gold prices fell Friday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the United States and UK had reached a free trade agreement. This lowered gold's appeal as a safe haven, while the focus shifted towards U.S. China talks at this weekend. As of 0217 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.8% to $3277.67 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.7% to $3282.80. Trump and British Premier Keir starmer announced "a breakthrough deal". The 10% tariff on UK goods will remain in place. Britain has agreed to reduce its tariffs from 5.1% to 1.8% and allow greater access to U.S. products. Kyle Rodda, Capital.com's Financial Market Analyst, said: "I believe the progress in trade negotiations and the U.S. UK deal is the primary reason why we've seen gold drop from its highs." Gold is also being driven away by the high-level talks between the U.S.A. and China over the weekend. Trump said that he expected substantive trade negotiations to take place between the United States, China and themselves this weekend. He also predicted that U.S. punitive tariffs of 145% on Beijing would most likely be reduced. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge to economic and political uncertainty, thrives. Later in the day, several U.S. Federal Reserve representatives will speak to provide further insight into the economy and Fed's policies. The Fed had held its interest rates at the same level on Wednesday, and warned about rising unemployment and inflation risks. The World Gold Council reported on Thursday that the amount of money flowing into gold-backed exchange-traded funds was the highest since March 2022. China-listed funds were the main beneficiaries, due to China's trade dispute with the U.S. Silver spot fell by 0.7%, to $32.27 per ounce. Platinum rose by 0.2% to $877.85. Palladium dropped 0.4% to $971.86. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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Oil prices remain stable ahead of Sino-US Trade Meeting
The oil prices were not much changed on Friday morning after a rise of more than 3% the previous day. Trade tensions between the top oil consumers, the United States and China, showed signs that they are easing. Britain also announced a "breakthrough deal" with the United States. Brent crude increased 7 cents or 0.1% to $62,91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up by 7 cents or 0.1% at $59.98 a barrel as of 0121 GMT. Brent crude settled at $1.72, up 2.8% on Thursday. WTI was up 3.2% at $1.84. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China will meet in Switzerland on 10 May to resolve trade disputes which have threatened the growth in crude oil consumption. Separately U.S. president Donald Trump and British prime minister Keir starmer announced Britain agreed to lower tariffs for U.S. imported goods to 1.8%, from 5.1%. The U.S. reduced duties on British cars, but kept a 10% duty on other goods. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC+), plans to increase production in other countries. This could maintain pressure on the oil price. A survey revealed that OPEC's oil production fell in April, as declines in Libyan, Venezuelan and Iraqi production outweighed a planned increase in output. A tightening of U.S. sanctions against Iran could limit supply and drive prices up. Sources told Reuters that sanctions on two Chinese refiners who bought Iranian oil had made it hard for them to get crude, and forced them to use alternative names to sell the product. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Sudarshan Varadahan)
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Metals on the edge ahead of China-US Trade Talks
As traders awaited the U.S. - China trade talks at this weekend, metal prices in London were in tight ranges. As of 135 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), fell by 0.3% to $9.405 per metric ton. U.S. president Donald Trump and British prime minister Keir starmer announced on Thursday a limited trade agreement. The agreement leaves the 10% tariffs Trump imposed on British exports in place, but expands access to agriculture for both countries. It also lowers U.S. duty on British auto exports. After months of rising tensions, which pushed tariffs well above 100% between the two world's largest economies, traders have adopted a cautious approach ahead of this weekend's U.S. China meeting scheduled in Switzerland. Both countries will likely discuss the possibility of lowering tariffs on specific products and broader tariffs. The discussions between the U.S.A. and China are critical. We are cautious because of Trump's unpredictable stance. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell 0.2%, to $2408 per ton. Zinc rose 0.1%, to $2620; lead increased by 0.5%, to $1954; tin dropped 0.2%, to $31,800, and nickel remained flat, at $15,540. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract rose by 0.1%, to 77.670 yuan per ton, with the help of rapidly declining stocks, monitored by SHFE, driven by robust demand in China. Yangshan Copper Premium On Thursday, the price of a ton of copper in China reached its highest level since December 2023, at $102 per ton. SHFE aluminium increased 0.6%, to 19,600 Yuan per ton. Zinc was flat, at 22,285 Yuan. Lead was unchanged, at 16,790 Yuan. Nickel was flat, at 123660 Yuan. Tin rose by 0.1%, to 260980 Yan.
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Hellman & Friedman begins sale process of US software company Enverus.
By Milana Vinn Hellman & Friedman, a private equity firm, has begun a process to sell Texas-based software company Enverus. The deal could be worth around $6 billion according to sources familiar with the situation. According to the person who requested anonymity because the discussion is private, the private equity firm and investment bankers of Citi are working together on the possible sale. This has drawn interest from private equity firms as well as other companies. People said that the sale process was in its infancy and there were multiple options on the table. One of them included selling a stake within Enverus. They cautioned, however, that no deal would be guaranteed. Genstar Capital still holds a small stake in Enverus, the technology company that was sold to Hellman & Friedman for $4.25billion in 2021. Citi and Genstar refused to comment. Hellman & Friedman, Enverus and Citi did not reply to requests for comment. Enverus, based in Austin, Texas, provides oil and gas companies with data, analytics and software solutions. Sources said that Enverus generated around $400 million of annual earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is likely to be worth close to 15 times EBITDA or $6 billion. Bloomberg reported that in 2024, private equity owners were exploring the possibility of selling or IPOing Enverus. Investors are increasing the pressure on private equity firms to sell portfolio companies or list them in an IPO to return capital following a year with little activity. Blackstone has been reported to be exploring the sale of Sphera - a software and consultancy services provider that specializes in sustainability. (Reporting from Milana Vinn, New York; additional reporting from Amy-Jo Crowley, London; editing by Dawn Kopecki & Cynthia Osterman).
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China's copper stocks are set to drop again, raising supply concerns
Four traders predict that copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange SHFE will continue to decline this week. The rapid drawdown is likely to boost prices and encourage traders to send back copper to China. The SHFE copper inventories have declined by 60% in just one month, with the final tally of 89,307 tons being the highest ever. The traders said they expect to see an even greater decline in stocks when the stock reports are released on Friday afternoon. This could increase prices and cause a backwardation of SHFE copper, one of China's most important metals for its vast manufacturing sector. Backwardation is when the cost of securing a commodity to be delivered in a contract for a long term is less than that of a contract for a short-term. This is usually due to a strong current demand or a tight supply. On Thursday, the closing price of the SHFE front month June copper contract was 2,1% higher than that of the October contract. This compares to 0.75% at the end-of-March. There are still buyers who have taken delivery of the copper they ordered when prices plummeted after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. One trader predicted that the copper stock will drop even further. A second trader stated that while most of the refined copper traded in China is domestically produced, it is expected that more copper from overseas will flow into China, as prices could rise compared to overseas markets. On Wednesday, the Yangshan copper price premium, which reflects the demand for imported copper into China, hit $100 per ton, its highest level since December 2023. The price has increased by 43% since March. Chinese consumers are struggling to find copper on a market that is already very tight. This has been exacerbated by the U.S.-China Trade tensions which have impacted China's top scrap metal source. Instead, traders from all over the world rushed to import copper into the United States before President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods. This has led to a rise in U.S. COMEX Stocks reached 156,623 tonnes on Wednesday, an increase of 61% from the end March, and their highest level since November 2018. Reporting by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Varun H K
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Copec's Q1 profits in Chile fell 8.5% due to a weaker forest unit
Empresas Copec, a Chilean conglomerate of industrial companies, announced Thursday a 8.5% decline in its first-quarter profits. This was partly offset by the stronger performance of the energy sector. The first-quarter profit was $208 million, compared with $228 million for the same period last year. Revenues increased by 1.8% to $7.25 Billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected a net loss of $220 millions and revenues of $6 billion. Arauco's core earnings fell by 22.4% due to lower pulp prices, lower volumes and higher wood prices. Copec reported that while the sector had positive pricing trends, and sales improved towards the end of the third quarter, the overall market conditions deteriorated in the month of March due to escalating tensions with trade partners and newly announced tariffs. The energy operating income increased on the back of higher sales at Copec Chile and Terpel’s lubricants division, as well as improved results from Abastible due to its new Gasib Unit in Europe, and stronger performances across Latin America. Copec confirmed that construction on its "Sucuriu Project", a $4.6 billion pulp mill in Brazil, began in April. The plant will produce 3.5 millions metric tons dry cellulose per year, and operations are expected to start in late 2027.
Stocks grind towards record highs in inflation-heavy week
International stocks neared record highs on Monday, in a week where inflation figures could make or break expectations for earlier U.S. rate cuts, while Chinese activity data will test optimism about a sustained healing worldwide's No. 2 economy.
While U.S. inflation information will take centre-stage, reports on Chinese retail sales and commercial output could likewise have a big impact on general financier sentiment.
Chinese authorities are also set to offer 1 trillion yuan ($ 140 billion) in longer-dated bonds to assist fund stimulus spending in the house.
The enhanced belief has helped lift Chinese blue chips to a seven-month high and the favorable vibes carried over into Europe, where the STOXX 600 held near record highs and U.S. stock futures rose 0.1%.
U.S. equity traders, along with gold, bond, and dollar traders (well, everybody really), will be looking to start the week by rubbing direct exposures ahead of U.S. PPI, and CPI and retail sales, Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston stated.
The MSCI All-World index pushed greater on Monday and is now less than 0.5% far from March's record highs.
Worldwide, much now depends upon whether the U.S. April inflation report will show a small amounts after 3 months of upside surprises. Typical forecasts are for core consumer costs to rise 0.3% in the month, compared to 0.4% in March, pulling the yearly rate to 3.6%.
Vital is the information that rounding to the 2nd decimal location might make all the difference.
Our unrounded core CPI forecast at 0.27% m/m recommends larger risks for a dovish surprise to a rounded 0.2% boost, kept in mind analysts at TD Securities.
A low number would likely improve bets that the Federal Reserve might ease as soon as July, which is currently priced at only a 25% possibility. Similarly, a high inflation print might press a. rate cut out past September and obstacle rates for 42 basis. points of easing this year.
Also due are figures on U.S. manufacturer costs, retail sales. and jobless claims, together with final reports on European. inflation that ought to reinforce expectations for a June rate cut. from the European Reserve Bank.
There are a host of Fed speakers today to update markets. on their thinking, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who. appears with the head of the Dutch reserve bank on Tuesday.
UPBEAT US PROFITS
With 80% of the S&P 500 having reported outcomes, business. are on track to have actually increased revenues by 7.8%, well ahead of. the April expectation of 5.1%.
As soon as Nvidia reports on May 22, quarterly incomes. from so-called Stunning Seven companies are on track to jump 49%,. according to LSEG information.
Business reporting this week consist of Walmart, Home. Depot and Cisco.
International share indices have actually also bounced to tape-record highs in. recent weeks, even as markets downsize a few of their more. aggressive wagers for rate cuts this year.
A straightforward interpretation of financial market. performance is that there is more hidden strength in the. global economy than had actually been prepared for and greater interest. rates are reflecting instead of restraining global development, says. Bruce Kasman, head of financial research study at JPMorgan.
We lean in this instructions as our 2024 development and policy. rate forecasts both move higher.
The relative outperformance of the U.S. economy continues to. underpin the dollar, while just the threat of Japanese. intervention is stopping it from re-testing the 160 yen barrier.
The Bank of Japan on Monday sent a hawkish signal to markets. by cutting the quantity of Japanese government bonds it provided to. purchase in a routine operation, pressing yields up.
The dollar was holding at 155.87 yen on Monday,. while the euro was flat at $1.0777 having dealt with. resistance around $1.0791 last week.
Gold relieved 0.5% to $2,347 an ounce, having gotten 2.5% last. week as needed from momentum funds and talk of continuous buying by. China.
Oil rates held mainly stable, with Brent unrefined futures. up 0.1% at $82.87 a barrel, while U.S. crude was. up 0.13% at $78.36. ($ 1 = 7.2339 Chinese yuan)
(source: Reuters)