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China launches campaign against critical mineral smuggling
China launched a special crackdown on the smuggling strategic minerals. Beijing is seeking to enforce its export restrictions on metals used for industries from defence to clean power. According to a Friday statement by the Ministry of Commerce, since China has imposed export controls on metals like gallium, germanium and antimony as well as tungsten, some overseas companies have "colluded" with domestic lawbreakers to avoid the restrictions. The campaign was announced during a conference held in Shenzhen. It urges departments of the government to focus on typical evasion techniques such as false reporting and concealment, smuggling and trans-shipment via third countries. In March, Hong Kong authorities seized an antimony cargo under an ordinance which can be applied to exports of controlled items that do not have a license. The seizure was not explained. Last year, China exported 3.9 millions kg of antimony, both wrought and unwrought. However, since September 2009 when export controls were implemented the shipments have almost completely stopped. According to Chinese customs, as of early April the only export had been a 20,000 kg cargo sent to Japan in January. (Reporting and editing by Beijing Newsroom)
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Sibanye increases Finland lithium project estimate to $880 Million
Sibanye Stillwater announced on Friday that it has increased the estimated cost of its Keliber Lithium project in Finland to 783 millions euros ($880,000,000), mainly because of additional regulatory requirements and a change to the scope. The Johannesburg-based firm owns 79.8% the Keliber Project, which will produce at least 15,000 metric tonnes of battery-grade Lithium annually for 16 years starting in 2026. Sibanye stated in an update that the revised total capital for development or construction of the project up to the hot commissioning phase of the refinery has increased from 783 million to 116 million euro. Sibanye said that a total of 508 millions of euros would have been spent by the end March 2025 on the project. The Keliber project's capital expenditure forecast has been raised to 300 million Euros from 215 millions euros. Sibanye announced in August that it had obtained 500 million Euros of debt financing, partially funded by the European Investment Bank to bring the Keliber Project into production starting 2026. Sibanye stated that construction of the project was "well advanced" and the refinery would be operational in the first quarter 2026. Sibanye has recently expanded its portfolio, adding metals like lithium to the mix. These metals are crucial in developing clean energy technologies, as part of a global push to combat climate change.
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Iron ore prices rangebound due to slow demand and ahead Sino-US trade talks
Investors weighed the prospects of an easing in Sino-U.S. tensions with the seasonal weakness in demand from China, which is the top consumer. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading 0.57% lower, at 696 Yuan ($96.06), a metric tonne. This marks a 1.2% drop this week. As of 0740 GMT the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was 0.65% higher at $97.15 per ton, bringing its overall increase this week to 1.5%. The United States announced details of a new trading agreement with Britain. President Donald Trump predicted that the punitive U.S. Tariffs of 145% on Beijing would also likely be reduced, the latest indication of a softer tone between the superpowers. Analysts and traders remained cautious ahead of the Sino - U.S. discussions scheduled for this weekend. Analysts said that while near-term ore consumption remained strong, signs of a weakening steel downstream consumption threatened to limit any potential upside. A survey by Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production - which is typically used to gauge demand for iron ore - increased 0.1% week-on-week, reaching 2.46 million tonnes on May 8. This was the highest level since October 2023. Imports of iron ore from China rose by 9.8% between March and April, reaching their highest level since December. Improved margins encouraged mills book more seaborne shipments. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also lost ground. They fell by 1.79% and 2.0%, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Rebar fell 1.63%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 1.34%. Wire rod fell 2.1%, and stainless steel edged down 0.16%. ($1 = 7.2451 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jackson, Lewis Jackson and Amy Lv)
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Nippon Steel reports a 43% drop in profit and says it will cooperate with the review of US Steel's bid
Nippon Steel forecasted a 43% drop in net profit in the current fiscal year due to a worsening business climate and increased tariffs. It also said that authorities in the U.S. are still reviewing the bid it made to purchase U.S. Steel. The largest Japanese steelmaker, Japan's largest steelmaker, estimated its profit for the fiscal year ending March at more than 200 billion yen (about $1.4 billion). This is a 36% decrease on the previous year's 350.2 billion yen, but still higher than the average analyst estimate of 334.3 billion yen compiled by LSEG. In a recent earnings report, Nippon Steel said that the trend of tariffs in the United States is unpredictable and the indirect impact it may have on the company could be huge. It said that the direct impact of this is unlikely to be significant, as small-volume exports are difficult to substitute. The $15 billion offer by Nippon Steel for U.S. Steel that was rejected by the former U.S. president Joe Biden is being reviewed. Nippon Steel announced on Friday that both parties are "taking all necessary steps" to close the transaction, but there is no guarantee. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who assumed office for a second time on 20 January, began his tenure by saying that he "wouldn’t mind" Nippon Steel buying a minority stake of U.S. Steel. This scenario would require a major overhaul of the deal structures. Trump instructed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review the foreign investment to assess the risk to national security. Nippon Steel "fully cooperates with the review process in order to obtain approvals," said the Japanese steelmaker on Friday. Speaking to reporters Friday, Vice Chairman Takahiro Muri said that he expected CFIUS would make a recommendation to Trump on the deal by May 21, and that the president will decide whether or not to approve the deal by June 5.
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China opens gold ore blending business at Yantai
China, which is the largest consumer of gold in the world, has blended for the first-time different gold-containing ores, according to Xinhua, a state news outlet. This was done as part of an effort to guarantee a stable supply of gold and reduce costs for refiners. In the Pilot Free-Trade Zone, the "bonded gold blending", also known as bonded logistics, is the mixing of ore containing gold under different customs code in a physical manner. Qingdao Customs announced in an April 30 statement that on April 27, 279 tons of gold concentrates were mixed with 28 tons of precious metal ore containing gold. The blended products then went to domestic refiners of gold. Ma Hongwei of Yantai Port's production business department was quoted in a statement as saying that the mixing of gold-containing ore at home would reduce logistics costs more than 30%. A source familiar with this situation revealed that blending gold ore and concentrates in China was previously prohibited and that imports were required to meet certain standards. Gold is in the spotlight this year with its record-breaking price rise, fueled by a growing demand for safe havens amid rising uncertainty fueled by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff increases. This week, it was reported that China's central banks has approved the purchase of foreign currency by certain commercial banks in order to pay for imports of gold under newly increased quotas. Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Wednesday showed that the central bank of China added gold to its reserve in April, for the sixth consecutive month. The first quarter of 2018 saw a 35.1% increase in gold-containing ore imports via Yantai, with 158,000 metric tonnes. This represents more than 20% the total country's imports. The "bonded-gold-blending" will increase imports of ore containing gold in Yantai by at least 5%.
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China's steel exports in the first four months of 2018 are at a record high, despite tariff tensions
China's exports of steel in April exceeded 10 million metric tonnes for the second consecutive month, bringing the total over the first four-month period to a new record high. This was largely due to the fact that shipments were made ahead of the hefty tariffs announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. Customs data released on Friday showed that the world's biggest steel exporter and producer shipped 10,46 million tons last month. Exports were up 13.5% from the same period in 2024, despite being largely unchanged since March. Exports between January and April increased by 8.2% compared to the previous year, reaching a record high of 37.89 millions tons. "Steel Exports in April were a little higher than we expected, but still maintained positive annual growth. This was supported by the sustained front-loading of orders observed," Jiang Mengtian said, an analyst based in Shanghai at Horizon Insights. Jiang predicted that May shipments would slow down as tariffs and trade protectionionism began to bite. Washington's tariffs are threatening the transshipment business, in which third countries resell Chinese Steel to the U.S. Meanwhile, China's biggest steel customers, like South Korea and Vietnam, have also imposed duty to prevent steel from being rerouted or dumped on their markets. Eight analysts and traders said earlier this week that second-quarter exports could fall as much as five percent from the first quarter. IRON ORE Imports of iron ore from China in April rose by 9.8% compared to March, reaching their highest level since December. Improved margins prompted mills to book additional seaborne cargoes. Last month, the world's biggest iron ore consumer imported 103.14 millions tons of this key ingredient for steelmaking. This is up from a low of 93.97 in March. The volume of last month was 1.3% more than the 101.82 millions tons in April 2024. Pei Hao is an analyst with international brokerage Freight Investor Services. The data revealed that China's imports of iron ore fell 5.5% in the first four month of this year compared to the same period last year. They reached 388.36 millions tons. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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China's imports of unwrought copper to the US were flat in April, despite pre-tariff shipments.
Data from the General Administration of Customs on Friday showed that China's imports of copper, including unwrought and finished products, were the same as last year at 438,000 metric tonnes, despite the fact that suppliers had rushed to ship to the United States in order to avoid impending tariffs. The data shows that copper imports for the first four-month period of 2025 were down 3.9%, at 1,74 million tonnes. Analysts expect China's strong demand for copper to drive up the amount of industrial metal imported. This month, however, the flow to the U.S. of copper in anticipation of U.S. tariffs on imports has kept China's exports flat. This has led to a rise in U.S. COMEX Stocks reached 156,623 tonnes on Wednesday, an increase of 61% from the end of March, and their highest level since October 2018. The Shanghai Future Exchange's copper inventories in China fell 60% in April compared to the previous month, reaching 89,307 tons by the end of the period, the steepest drop on record. Customs data shows that imports of copper concentrate were 2.92 million tonnes in April, a 25% increase on the previous year.
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Oil prices rise ahead of Sino-US Trade Meeting
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after increasing about 3% the previous session as trade tensions between the top oil consumers U.S.A. and China began to ease and Britain announced an "important" trade agreement with the United States. Brent crude rose by 23 cents or 0.37% to $63.07 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude gained 21 cents or 0.35% at $60.12 a barrel as of 0507 GMT. Both contracts closed Thursday with gains of nearly 3%. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China will meet in Switzerland on 10 May to resolve trade disputes which have threatened the growth in crude oil consumption. If the two countries agree to start formal negotiations on trade and to lower their tariffs, while continuing talks, the markets would get a break and crude prices could rise another $2 to $3 per barrel, said Vandana, founder of oil analysis provider Vanda Insights. Customs data released on Friday showed that China's exports grew faster than expected, and imports slowed their declines. This gives Beijing some relief before the icebreaker tariff talks this weekend with the U.S. Separately U.S. president Donald Trump and British prime minister Keir starmer announced Britain agreed to lower tariffs for U.S. imported goods to 1.8%, from 5.1%. The U.S. reduced duties on British cars, but retained a 10% duty on most other goods. Hari said that any further U.S. deals with major trading partners after the UK deal would only have a marginal effect on oil sentiment. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC) and its allies plan to boost production in other countries. This could maintain pressure on the oil price. According to a survey, OPEC's oil production fell in April due to lower output in Venezuela, Libya and Iraq. A tightening of U.S. sanctions against Iran could limit supply and drive prices up. Sources told Thursday that sanctions on two small Chinese oil refiners who bought Iranian crude made it hard for them to get crude, and caused them to try to sell the product under other names. The Indian army reported that Pakistani forces had launched "multiple" attacks along India's western border during the night of Thursday and into Friday morning, as the conflict between nuclear-armed neighbors intensified. Rystad Energy analysts expect both countries to increase crude purchases and refinery activities amid rising tensions. Rohan Goindi, a Rystad analyst, said that "Diesel consumption is expected to decline as rerouted flights and cancellations result from airspace closures, which lead to increased ticket prices, rerouted flight, and cancellations." Rystad Energy estimates that India's daily crude oil demand is 5.4 million barrels (bpd) compared with Pakistan's 0.25million bpd.
China's copper stocks are set to drop again, raising supply concerns
Four traders predict that copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange SHFE will continue to decline this week. The rapid drawdown is likely to boost prices and encourage traders to send back copper to China.
The SHFE copper inventories have declined by 60% in just one month, with the final tally of 89,307 tons being the highest ever.
The traders said they expect to see an even greater decline in stocks when the stock reports are released on Friday afternoon. This could increase prices and cause a backwardation of SHFE copper, one of China's most important metals for its vast manufacturing sector.
Backwardation is when the cost of securing a commodity to be delivered in a contract for a long term is less than that of a contract for a short-term. This is usually due to a strong current demand or a tight supply.
On Thursday, the closing price of the SHFE front month June copper contract was 2,1% higher than that of the October contract. This compares to 0.75% at the end-of-March.
There are still buyers who have taken delivery of the copper they ordered when prices plummeted after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. One trader predicted that the copper stock will drop even further.
A second trader stated that while most of the refined copper traded in China is domestically produced, it is expected that more copper from overseas will flow into China, as prices could rise compared to overseas markets.
On Wednesday, the Yangshan copper price premium, which reflects the demand for imported copper into China, hit $100 per ton, its highest level since December 2023. The price has increased by 43% since March.
Chinese consumers are struggling to find copper on a market that is already very tight. This has been exacerbated by the U.S.-China Trade tensions which have impacted China's top scrap metal source.
Instead, traders from all over the world rushed to import copper into the United States before President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods.
This has led to a rise in U.S. COMEX
(source: Reuters)