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Dollar slips as stocks fall on lack of progress in trade

The dollar fell against other major currencies on Tuesday as worries about tariffs and the impact they have on the economy continued to linger. Meanwhile, the focus was on the Federal Reserve policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday.

Investors have been focused on the possibility that trade tensions could be eased between the U.S.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Sunday Washington was meeting with many nations, including China. His main priority in dealing with China is securing a fair agreement.

Lars Skovgaard is senior investment strategist for Danske Bank. He said, "We have seen a backpedaling and the trade risks are lower."

Investors are left to try and make sense of headlines from the White House, but with little information about trade talks.

Skovgaard said, "Now we have to see some deals announced or else the stock market will fall again."

The STOXX 600 Europe index is down by 0.4% Tuesday, but it remains near its closing level of April 2, when Trump announced his tariff proposal.

The FTSE 100 in Britain was up by 0.1%, and is on course to reach a 16th consecutive positive closing record. Germany's DAX fell 1%.

Investors also processed a surprise in Germany, where conservative leader Friedrich Merz was unable to gain the majority required to become chancellor. This unexpected setback came for his new coalition of the Social Democrats.

With Japan closed on a holiday, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan was flat.

The blue-chip index in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng index in China both rose by about 1% after returning from a long holiday.

The Federal Reserve policy decision is expected to be announced on Wednesday. While the central bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged, the focus will be on the policymakers' ability to navigate a path that includes tariffs.

Christian Scherrmann is the chief U.S. economics at DWS. "We believe they will adopt a slightly more hawkish tonality, but in a direction more towards an extended pause rather than a possible hike."

LSEG data revealed that traders are pricing 75 basis points in easing for this year, with the first possible move in July.

DOLLAR RISES, DOLLAR SLIDES VS ASIAN FX

Since April, Trump's unpredictable trade policies have fueled significant waves of dollar sales as investors moved away from U.S.-based assets, driving the euro, Swiss franc and yen higher.

The euro was up by 0.3% on Tuesday against the dollar, at $1.1347. And the yen rose 0.5% to 142.95 dollars.

The record-breaking surge of the Taiwan dollar in recent sessions has shown that dollar selling has spread across other Asian currencies. This has led to speculations about a possible revaluation to gain U.S. concessions on trade.

The rally was a sign that a major unwinding is underway. It also shed light on a single economy amongst many where large dollar long positions have been built up by exporters and insurance companies over the years due to big trade surpluses. These positions are now being questioned and put on edge.

On Tuesday, the Taiwan dollar traded at 30.28 dollars for every dollar in the U.S., a relatively low rate compared to Monday's near-three-year high 29.59 dollars.

On Tuesday, the focus shifted to Hong Kong where the de-facto central bank purchased $7.8 billion in order to prevent the local currency strengthening and breaking the peg with the greenback.

Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Singapore. She said that Asian FX was where it's at today.

If these currencies continue to strengthen sharply, this could cause fears of a "reverse Asian currency crises", with possible ripple effects on the bond market, amid fears that Asian Institutions reassess unhedged Treasury holdings.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced on Tuesday that it was diversifying its currency exposure to reduce risk in its portfolio of investments.

China's Yuan has strengthened on the mainland to its highest rate since November, at 7.2105 per dollar.

Oil prices rose in commodities after hitting four-year highs the previous session, mainly due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output. Brent crude futures rose 2.2% to $61.55 a barrel.

On safe-haven demand, gold prices increased 1.2% in a week to $3.375/oz. (Editing by Sam Holmes and Kate Mayberry)

(source: Reuters)