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UK new car sales fall in April due to low consumer confidence
Data from the industry showed that British new car registrations dropped more than 10% in April compared to last year, with Tesla suffering a 62% drop. The data was attributed to a lack of consumer confidence as well as tax increases. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that 120,331 cars were registered in April, a traditionally quieter month. Sales of new Teslas fell to 512, down from 1,352 a year earlier. Elon Musk’s closeness to U.S. president Donald Trump, as well as his far-right political views in Europe, have led to a public backlash against him and Tesla. This has been exacerbated by competition and aging product lines. Trump's auto-tariffs have added uncertainty to the sector. The U.S. is the second largest importer of British cars, after the European Union. Jamie Hamilton, Deloitte's automotive partner and head for electric vehicles, said: "As tariffs are implemented on cars sold to the U.S., it is likely to have material impacts on UK car manufacturing, as the U.S. is a key market to UK automotive companies." The SMMT reported that UK registrations for battery-electric vehicles increased by 8.1% in April. This represents a market share of 20.4%, which is still below the target of 28% set by the Government. The SMMT lowered its forecast of BEVs' market share in 2025 to 23,5%, down from the 23.7% estimate it made in January. BYD from China was the biggest winner in April. Its UK registrations increased 654% compared to last year, bringing new sales up to 2,511 cars in April, compared with 333 vehicles last year. The overall volume of purchases last month was also affected by the increase in vehicle excise duties, which went into effect on April 1. This pushed purchases to March. (Reporting by Yamini Kalia and Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru. (Editing by Mrigank dhaniwala, Mark Potter and Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Bahrain's economy grows by 3.4% in the fourth quarter, driven by non-oil growth
The finance ministry reported on Tuesday that the economy of Bahrain grew by 3.4% compared to the same period a year ago. Data from the Information and eGovernment Authority of the Gulf nation showed that growth was primarily driven by a 4,6% increase in non oil activities. Oil activities fell by 3,5% during the same time period. According to the statement, Bahrain's total real gross domestic product will grow by 2.6% in 2024. According to the Ministry's projections, Bahrain's GDP real is expected to increase by 2.7% between 2025 and 2026, mainly due to an expansion of 3.4% in non-oil related activities that coincides with the implementation of the Bapco Modernization Programme. The Bapco Modernization Program is one of Bahrain’s largest energy investments. It will increase refinery production, which in turn, should boost fiscal revenues, as part of efforts to diversify Bahrain's economy. The growth is expected to reach 3,3% by 2026. This will be supported by an increase of 3.9% in non-oil activity. The ministry stated that "However the forecasts will continue to be closely monitored and updated in order to take into account the global uncertainty, escalating instability and ongoing turmoil which may impact the economic projections." S&P Global, a global rating agency, downgraded Bahrain’s outlook from “stable” to “negative” last month. The agency cited ongoing market volatility as well as weaker financing conditions which could increase Bahrain’s interest burden. The escalating trade tensions are adding to the global economic uncertainty. They have clouded macroeconomic forecasts, and they are affecting investor and policymaker trust around the globe. The International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecasts for 2025 in the Middle East and North Africa to 2.6% earlier this month. It cited uncertainties arising from a trade war on a global scale and lower oil prices. Gulf Cooperation Council economies, which include Bahrain, Kuwait Oman, Qatar Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates, are expected to grow, but at a slower rate than predicted in October. The GCC is accelerating their diversification. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and the UAE's push towards tourism and manufacturing and Bahrain's investments in energy and finance infrastructure are all designed to wean their economies off of oil. (Reporting by Manya Saini in Dubai; Editing by Joe Bavier)
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Gold reaches 2-week high as demand for safe-haven assets increases, Fed meeting in focus
Tuesday's gold prices reached a new two-week-high, as Trump's tariff threats boosted demand for the metal. The Federal Reserve also made a policy announcement this week, which was in the spotlight. Gold spot rose by 1.2%, to $3,372.01 per ounce at 0810 GMT after reaching its highest level since April 22, earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures rose 1.7% to $3.379.10. "The structural elements that supported gold during the past few weeks still exist - trade tensions have not been resolved, and concern over the dollar's role as a reserve is still present," said UBS Analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "We're still waiting for gold to test the $3,500 level this year." Trump announced on Sunday a tariff of 100% on films produced abroad, but provided few details as to how it would be implemented. The U.S. president announced on Monday that he plans to announce pharmaceutical tariffs in the next two week. Last month, gold, which is often used as a store of value in times of political or financial uncertainty, reached a record high of $3.500.05 per ounce, thanks to central bank purchases, fears of tariff wars, and strong demand for investment. The Fed's Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watching for clues about the central bank's future rate trajectory. "With a rate holding largely expected, the focus will be on how policymakers evaluate the rising tariff risks and the implications they have for the rate outlook of the second half year," said IG Market Strategist Yeap JunRong. LSEG data revealed that traders are pricing 75 basis points in rate easing for this year, with the first possible move in July. The opportunity cost of non-yielding gold is reduced by lower interest rates. Other metals rose in price as well. Spot silver rose by 1.3%, to $32.92 per ounce. Platinum climbed by 1.7%, to $975.75, and palladium grew 0.8%, to $948.
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Dollar slips as stocks fall on lack of progress in trade
The dollar fell against other major currencies on Tuesday as worries about tariffs and the impact they have on the economy continued to linger. Meanwhile, the focus was on the Federal Reserve policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Investors have been focused on the possibility that trade tensions could be eased between the U.S. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Sunday Washington was meeting with many nations, including China. His main priority in dealing with China is securing a fair agreement. Lars Skovgaard is senior investment strategist for Danske Bank. He said, "We have seen a backpedaling and the trade risks are lower." Investors are left to try and make sense of headlines from the White House, but with little information about trade talks. Skovgaard said, "Now we have to see some deals announced or else the stock market will fall again." The STOXX 600 Europe index is down by 0.4% Tuesday, but it remains near its closing level of April 2, when Trump announced his tariff proposal. The FTSE 100 in Britain was up by 0.1%, and is on course to reach a 16th consecutive positive closing record. Germany's DAX fell 1%. Investors also processed a surprise in Germany, where conservative leader Friedrich Merz was unable to gain the majority required to become chancellor. This unexpected setback came for his new coalition of the Social Democrats. With Japan closed on a holiday, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan was flat. The blue-chip index in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng index in China both rose by about 1% after returning from a long holiday. The Federal Reserve policy decision is expected to be announced on Wednesday. While the central bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged, the focus will be on the policymakers' ability to navigate a path that includes tariffs. Christian Scherrmann is the chief U.S. economics at DWS. "We believe they will adopt a slightly more hawkish tonality, but in a direction more towards an extended pause rather than a possible hike." LSEG data revealed that traders are pricing 75 basis points in easing for this year, with the first possible move in July. DOLLAR RISES, DOLLAR SLIDES VS ASIAN FX Since April, Trump's unpredictable trade policies have fueled significant waves of dollar sales as investors moved away from U.S.-based assets, driving the euro, Swiss franc and yen higher. The euro was up by 0.3% on Tuesday against the dollar, at $1.1347. And the yen rose 0.5% to 142.95 dollars. The record-breaking surge of the Taiwan dollar in recent sessions has shown that dollar selling has spread across other Asian currencies. This has led to speculations about a possible revaluation to gain U.S. concessions on trade. The rally was a sign that a major unwinding is underway. It also shed light on a single economy amongst many where large dollar long positions have been built up by exporters and insurance companies over the years due to big trade surpluses. These positions are now being questioned and put on edge. On Tuesday, the Taiwan dollar traded at 30.28 dollars for every dollar in the U.S., a relatively low rate compared to Monday's near-three-year high 29.59 dollars. On Tuesday, the focus shifted to Hong Kong where the de-facto central bank purchased $7.8 billion in order to prevent the local currency strengthening and breaking the peg with the greenback. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Singapore. She said that Asian FX was where it's at today. If these currencies continue to strengthen sharply, this could cause fears of a "reverse Asian currency crises", with possible ripple effects on the bond market, amid fears that Asian Institutions reassess unhedged Treasury holdings. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced on Tuesday that it was diversifying its currency exposure to reduce risk in its portfolio of investments. China's Yuan has strengthened on the mainland to its highest rate since November, at 7.2105 per dollar. Oil prices rose in commodities after hitting four-year highs the previous session, mainly due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output. Brent crude futures rose 2.2% to $61.55 a barrel. On safe-haven demand, gold prices increased 1.2% in a week to $3.375/oz. (Editing by Sam Holmes and Kate Mayberry)
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Document shows that India has advanced hydro-projects in Kashmir after terminating the pact with Pakistan
According to a government and industry source, India has accelerated the start of four hydropower projects under construction in the Kashmir area by several months. This is after it suspended a water-sharing agreement with Pakistan which had slowed down progress. The Indian government is using the unilateral suspension of Indus Waters treaty 1960, which it unilaterally imposed following the deadly attack on Kashmir last month, to try and take advantage of this. India said that two of the "terrorists", who killed 26 men in a popular tourist spot in Kashmir on the 22nd of April, were from Pakistan. It has also taken a number of diplomatic and financial steps against Islamabad at a time when relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors are deteriorating. Islamabad denied involvement in the attack and threatened legal action for the suspension. It also said that any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water to Pakistan would be viewed as an act war. Pakistan relies on the Indus System for 80% its farms and for most of its output in hydroelectricity. Since nearly two weeks, the armies have been exchanging small arms fire along the border. Pakistan claims that India is about to launch a military attack. New Delhi, despite Pakistan's threats, has taken steps to reduce water supplies to Pakistan. The document was an undated list compiled by the Power Ministry and reviewed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Pakal Dul (1 000 MW), Kiru (620 MW), Kwar (560 MW) et Ratle (850MW) are the four projects. The four projects are located on the Chenab River. Although its waters are intended for Pakistan, India has been allowed to build hydroelectric projects that use run-of water without significant storage. All the projects are being built by NHPC (India's largest hydropower company), a state-owned corporation. The document states that they are scheduled to begin between June 2026 - August 2028. The document states that various agencies, such as those focusing on law enforcement and labor supply, were asked to speed up work. NHPC, the Indian Ministries of Power, Water Resources and Foreign Affairs did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Indus River Authority officials in Pakistan held a Monday meeting and "noted unanimously with concern that a sudden reduction in River Chenab flows at Marala, (the headworks which regulates flow), due to a short supply from India, would result in further shortages" of summer crops. The authority announced in a late-Monday statement that it would use downstream reservoirs "in light of the crisis created by Indian shortages in the Chenab River". "PLANS FOR MORE" Last month, India's Water Minister vowed to "ensure that no drop of water from the Indus River reaches Pakistan". According to a source in the Indian industry, there have been several meetings between officials of various government and private agencies and the power ministry over the last week regarding projects in Jammu & Kashmir. The source declined to identify herself because the matter was sensitive. "In general, government orders to speed up existing projects such as this means that it wants to plan new ones," she said. India is requesting that seven projects, with a combined power of 7 gigawatts and a cost of 400 billion rupees ($4.73 billion), be expedited. Could not identify all of the projects. The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague has already heard a dispute between Pakistan and India over Ratle. The dispute concerns the small pondage or water storage area as well as the turbine design. New Delhi was required by the water treaty to provide Islamabad with extensive details about projects on three Indus Rivers that were meant for Pakistan, the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum. Modi's Government has sought a modification to the water treaty, citing India's growing population and the need for cleaner forms of power like hydropower. Officials and experts from both countries had stated that India could not stop the flow of water immediately because the treaty only allowed them to build plants without the need for large storage dams. However, a Pakistani official claimed the Chenab River had already seen a drastic drop in flows. Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana told Bloomberg News that the flow of water has dropped by 90% since Sunday. Sources at Pakistan's Indus Authority said that the Chenab flow has been wildly fluctuating since Sunday. On Sunday, water was flowing at Marala Headworks at 31,000 cusecs. It then dropped to 3,100 on Monday and is now up to 25,000. Source: "The changes in water supply are due to India's (some hydro) projects," said the source. They can stop the water, then dump it. These variations are not large enough to cause significant damage, but they have an impact on the canals.
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The Gulf countries benefit from higher oil prices before Fed policy
The major Gulf stock markets rose early on Tuesday as a result of a rise in oil prices. Investors were also awaiting the Federal Reserve's meeting to discuss monetary policy. Oil, a key financial market catalyst in the Gulf, gained over $1 per barrel on technical factors, and after bargain hunters reacted to OPEC+'s decision to increase output, which had sent prices lower the previous session. However, concerns remained about the outlook for a surplus of oil on the market. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index rose 0.3%. This was boosted by the 0.7% increase in Saudi Arabian Mining Company, and a 0.3% rise in Saudi National Bank, the country's largest lender. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, added 0.2%. Separately the budget airline of the Kingdom, flynas - backed by billionaire prince Alwaleed Bin Talal - plans to launch a public offering this month. It will be the first IPO for a Gulf carrier in almost two decades. Dubai's main stock index rose by 0.4%. This was led by Emaar Properties, a blue-chip developer that gained 1.1%. In Abu Dhabi the index rose by 0.2%. We will closely monitor the Fed's decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday, as well as Jerome Powell's remarks. Since last December, the Fed's policy rate has been in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed's actions impact the monetary policy of the Gulf where the majority of currencies, including the Riyals, are pegged with the U.S. Dollar. Qatar National Bank, the Gulf's largest lender, rose 1%, while the Qatari Index was up 0.3%. Despite this, there is still caution due to the renewed concern about U.S. Tariffs and their possible impact on economic growth. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Monday that he plans to announce pharmaceutical tariffs in the next two week.
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EU is preparing its response to the US tariffs expansion by keeping all options open
Maros Séfcovic, European Trade Commissioner, said that the European Union is prepared to counter the numerous U.S. Tariffs on EU Imports during President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause. The EU Trade chief stated that U.S. Tariffs cover 70% of EU Goods Trade to the United States. This could increase to 97% if further U.S. Investigations into Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductors and other Products are conducted. Sefcovic stated that a solution negotiated with the United States was the EU's preferred and clear outcome. He said in a European Parliament debate that the U.S. must now show it is willing to move forward towards a fair, balanced solution. The EU27 faces import tariffs from the US of 25% on steel, aluminium, and cars. "Reciprocal" tariffs are also in place at 10% for most other goods. These tariffs could increase to 20% following President Donald Trump's 90 day pause. Sefcovic stated that the European Union will use the pause up until the 8th of July to prepare rebalancing and level-playing field measures if the talks fail. Sefcovic stated that "all options are still on the table." Sefcovic said that the European Union had suspended its own countermeasures in response to steel tariffs, to allow for negotiation. However, they appeared to have made limited progress. Sefcovic added that the European Union will also be on guard against any possible import surges caused by trade diverted due to Trump's tariff walls. He said a taskforce set up to monitor diversion of trade would produce its initial results in mid-May. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Philip Blenkinsop)
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Uniper, a German company, has recovered more claims from Gazprom.
Uniper said Tuesday that it had recovered more claims from former Gazprom main supplier during the first quarter. This is the latest update in the ongoing legal dispute between the two groups. According to EU officials, the news comes at a time when the European Union will publish plans to phase out the remaining gas supply agreements with Russia in the bloc by the end 2027. Uniper is locked in a legal battle with Russia's Gazprom. The two have been at odds since the delivery of its natural gas stopped in 2022. This forced Berlin to bail out the German utility for 13.5 billion euros ($15.3 billion). Uniper won a significant legal victory in the last year, when an arbitral tribunal awarded damages of more than 13 billion euro for gas volumes that were not supplied by Gazprom. Uniper's first-quarter report, published Tuesday, included the "revenue from enforcement activities against Gazprom export", which is Russian firm's export division. The utility refused to comment on how much money was made or other details about it. It only said that any claims that were realised would be transferred to Germany as part of the bailout agreement. Uniper has repaid state aid to the tune of 3.1 billion Euros, including 530 millions euros in payments withheld from Gazprom. A St. Petersburg court ruled last year that Gazprom export could demand more than 14 billion Euros from Uniper if it pursued arbitration. Uniper was able to assert claims against Gazprom Austrian division based on previous court decisions. This caused the business to declare insolvency by 2023. Gazprom declined to comment on a question. Reporting by Tom Kaeckenhoff and Christoph Steitz. Vladimir Soldatkin contributed additional reporting. Friederike Heine, Mark Potter and Friederike Hine edited the article.
As focus shifts to Asian currencies, stocks drift and the dollar stabilizes
The dollar recovered some of its recent losses versus Asian counterparts on Tuesday as investor concerns about U.S. Tariffs and their impact upon economic growth returned.
These fears, combined with the pledges of key oil producers to increase supply, kept crude prices near their four-year lows.
Since April, the erratic policies of U.S. president Donald Trump has fueled significant waves of dollar sales as investors have shifted away from U.S.-based assets, driving up the euro, yen, and Swiss franc.
The record rise of the Taiwan dollar in recent sessions has confirmed that dollar selling is now spreading to Asia. This has led to speculations about a possible revaluation to gain U.S. concessions on trade.
The rally was a sign that a major unwinding is underway. It also shed light on a single economy amongst many where large dollar long positions have been built up by exporters and insurance companies over the years due to big trade surpluses. These positions are now being questioned and put on edge.
On Tuesday, the focus shifted to Hong Kong where the de-facto central bank purchased $7.8 billion in order to prevent the local currency strengthening and breaking the peg with the greenback.
Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Singapore. She said that Asian FX was where it's at today.
If these currencies continue to strengthen sharply, this could cause fears of a "reverse Asian currency crises", with possible ripple effects on the bond market, amid fears that Asian Institutions reassess unhedged Treasury holdings.
China's Yuan has strengthened on the mainland to its highest rate since March 20, at 7.23 dollars.
On Tuesday, the Taiwan dollar traded at 30.185 dollars for every dollar in the U.S., not far off from its near three-year peak of 29.59 dollars on Monday.
The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.2% despite Japan being closed for the holiday. Taiwan stocks were not much changed.
The blue-chip index in China returned to the market after a long holiday. It was up by nearly 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.69%.
The European stock futures point to a calm opening in the region, ahead of a scattering of manufacturing data which will likely provide an indication as to the impact of tariffs. U.S. futures also fell.
Investors have been focused on the possibility that trade tensions could be eased between the U.S.
Investors are left to try and make sense of headlines from the White House, but with little information.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Sunday Washington was meeting with many nations, including China. His main priority in dealing with China is to get a fair deal.
Trump imposed a 100% tax on movies made outside of the United States on Monday, but provided little information on the implementation.
Saxo's Chanana stated that tariff headlines are driving the market more than anything else. The tactical risk-reward ratio could still tilt to the upside if hard data continues to hold up and sentiment is buoyed by trade deal hopes.
Data released on Monday revealed that the U.S. service sector grew in April. Meanwhile, a measure of materials and services paid for by businesses soared to its highest level in over two years. This indicates an increase in inflation pressures caused by tariffs.
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy on Wednesday. It is expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus of attention will be how policymakers navigate a path characterized by tariffs.
Christian Scherrmann is the chief U.S. economics at DWS. "We believe they will adopt a slightly hawkish tone but in a direction more towards an extended pause rather than a possible hike."
LSEG data revealed that traders are pricing 75 basis points in easing for this year, with the first possible move in July.
Oil prices, which had hit four-year lows the previous session due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output, were stable on Tuesday.
The gold price reached a new high of one week on the back of safe-haven demand. (Editing by Sam Holmes & Kate Mayberry).
(source: Reuters)