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Stocks turn cautious before Warsh's speech; bonds, FX and hold their breath

Stocks turn cautious before Warsh's speech; bonds, FX and hold their breath
Stocks turn cautious before Warsh's speech; bonds, FX and hold their breath

The shares in Asia were cautious after the technology rally fueled by Nvidia, and currency and bond markets awaited the words of the world's largest central banker on U.S. rates.

The oil prices are headed for a weekly loss as Iran and Oman have 'agreed' to share revenues and administer traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington has shown little interest in restarting direct talks with Tehran. Brent fell 0.1% to $89.63 per barrel, but the weekly decline was expected to be over 5%.

The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 0.5%.

Taiwanese stocks gained 1.2%, after Nvidia's shares jumped almost 9% overnight. The chipmaker announced robust results and indicated that the AI spending boom still has many years to run. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.3%.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by 0.1% while the?EURO STOXX50 futures rose 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium is the focus of attention. Kevin Warsh, the chair, will?speak at the end of the day. Three Fed officials already raised the alarm over sticky inflation, but the new chief of the central bank has refused to provide any forward guidance on where interest rates will go.

Futures prices indicate that there is a 35% probability of the Fed raising interest rates at its meeting on September 16. They are fully priced to move in December.

In a client note, ANZ analysts said that while they do not expect him give any forward guidance, the markets hope he will help reduce the uncertainty around the Fed's response function.

"We don't expect this to be forthcoming, but given the recent volatility on rates markets, it could cause a negative market reaction if Warsh offers a too small amount."

After the Fed's meeting in July, yields on longer-dated bonds have increased as Warsh is perceived as not having offered enough concrete steps to address persistently high inflation. Warsh is also leading a Fed divided, as several policymakers are calling for an increase in interest rates to curb 'price pressures.

The 30-year Treasury yields are little changed on Friday at 5.1973%. They were down 8 basis point?this past week after briefly reaching?5.3%, the highest since 2007. This prompted a surprise intervention by U.S. Treasury, which increased its buyback program.

The yields on ten-year bonds were unchanged at 4.6723% this week and down 7 basis points, while the yields on two-year bonds were stable at 4.2279%.

The dollar's value against major currencies was 99.12 at the end of last week, but it is now up 0.3%.

After a hot inflation rate report this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia re-evaluated its interest-rate outlook. The Aussie reached a three-month high of $0.72, and was on track for a 0.4% weekly increase. This is the ninth consecutive week of gains.

Gold dropped 0.3% on the commodity market to $4,587 per ounce. It was expected to drop 0.2% in this week.

(source: Reuters)