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Oil prices fall on hope of Iran Deal, but yen firms are still active after intervention

The oil prices fell and the?U.S. Stock futures in Europe and the U.S. rose Monday amid growing hopes for a Middle East peace agreement, while the yen strengthened to a high of three months after the U.S. Japan and the United States confirmed a joint intervention in order to support the fragile?currency.

Brent crude futures fell more than 4%, to $83.88 per barrel, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place on Monday. He had previously called off an imminent strike on Iran in order to reach a agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz, and resolve the impasse regarding Tehran's nuke capabilities.

S&P futures increased by 0.6%, while Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.8%. European futures rose 0.8%.

Asian stocks were down at the beginning of the week following a turbulent month that saw wild swings in the AI market. Investors worried about massive capital expenditure and whether they would provide returns quickly.

Japan's Nikkei fell 1% while South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 5%. MSCI's broadest?Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1%.

YEN BEAR COWER FOLLOWING JOINT INTERVENTION

The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 156.49 US dollars after an abrupt move earlier in day that saw it reach its highest level since early May (155.2), putting traders on high alert for another round of intervention.

Japan's Finance Ministry confirmed on Monday that the U.S. and Japan conducted a coordinated yen buying intervention, and they will not hesitate to continue. This is a rare bilateral action taken to stop the yen from falling to new 40-year-lows.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said that the United States will also consider increasing the size of Federal Reserve's repurchase facility in the coming months to provide temporary dollar liquidity. He called the tool "important backstop".

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that Besent's remarks carry more weight than his intervention. It feels like the Japanese yen is at its lowest level for the year. "The term 'joint interventions' is rarely used in these markets, but it carries a great deal of weight."

Trump said that the United States helped Japan support the yen on Sunday as a gesture of friendship and in order to aid the global economy.

Tokyo's unilateral intervention between late April to early May only caused a short yen recovery, and the Bank of Japan rate hike in the month of June provided little support, underlining the challenges facing policymakers due to rising oil prices and an interest rate differential with other major economies.

Data from an American regulator showed that the yen was at a 40-year low of 163.99 dollars per yen in the recent weeks, and had net short positions of approximately $12.5 billion. This is the highest amount in the past two years.

Masahiko LOO, senior fixed income analyst at State Street Investment Management, said that 155 is the level to watch in the near term. It has effectively served as a market floor/resistance since the May intervention of this year.

Bessent's repeated calls for the BOJ to increase interest rates and his actions have brought monetary policy into sharp focus.

On Monday, the 2-year JGB rate, which is most sensitive to short-term monetary policy changes, briefly reached 1.545%, its highest level since 1995 as markets priced in an early rate increase.

"Intervention could shape the next few weeks. The next few years will be shaped by BOJ normalisation and hedging flows. Loo stated that the next major move of the yen could be upwards, not downwards.

Oil prices dropped, which led to lower yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. The 30-year bond yield fell 3.7 basis point to 5.238%. This is a slight decrease from the 19-year high that was reached last week. Investors were confused by the Iran War and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in July, which caused the yield to jump 372 basis points. Reporting by Ankur banerjee from Singapore, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Jacqueline Wong

(source: Reuters)