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Gold gains over 2% following weak US payroll report
Gold ?extended its gains, climbing more than ?2% on Thursday, after ?weaker-than-expected ?U.S. Non-farm payrolls reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates to rise this year. As of 9:00 am EDT (1300 GMT), spot gold was up by 2.4% to $4,126.97 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures climbed 1.4% to $4,139.20. Dollar-priced materials are now cheaper for holders of other currencies, as the U.S. index fell by 0.7%. The lower than expected jobs number indicates a reduced likelihood of rate increases later this year. Gold tends to do better when interest rates are lower, said David Meger, director at High Ridge Futures. He added, "We saw a significant rise in the gold market as a result." The Labor Department reported that the U.S. The U.S. economy added 57,000 new jobs last month, as opposed to the economists' estimate of a growth of 102,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. This was in response to a report released on Wednesday, which showed that private payrolls in the United States increased less than anticipated for June. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a rate increase by September of just 51%, down from 66% prior to the data. Kevin Warsh, Fed chairman, said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and risks have decreased?in the last few weeks. He also reiterated that the Fed was committed to bringing inflation?down?to it's 2% target. The World Gold Council reported that central banks had resumed their buying in May. According to the latest data, the official gold reserves increased by 41 tons. Iran and the United States have concluded indirect talks with the Middle East on Wednesday, but there is no sign they've made any progress toward lasting peace. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier) (Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sukanya Mtra in Bengaluru, Editing by Joe Bavier.)
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Document says that high costs and debt at Codelco hurt the company's competitiveness
According to an internal document seen by the. The document stated that Codelco's costs are "significantly" higher than those of its?industry?rivals. Its direct cost (C1) is 57% more than those of major international mining companies, and 72% more than the main operations in Australia. The report stated that "the main competitive gap identified through the comparison is concentrated on operational costs which remain significantly higher than international and national benchmarks." The analysis also revealed that the company’s net debt to EBITDA ratio is 3.8x compared to the global mining industry’s 0.7x and the Chilean mining industry’s 0.5x. The report showed that despite losing its position as the world's biggest copper producer by 2025, its quality of mining resources was not the main factor compared to its competitors. Codelco’s average ore grade, according to the document, was 0.62%. This is compared with 0.59% for its global competitors. However, it is still?below 0.80% for other miners in Chile. The report stated that "Codelco’s main challenges focus on increasing operational competition, improving profitability, and increasing return on significant investments made rather than its production scale or quality of resource base." The comparisons also showed "significant room for improvements in productivity, operational efficiencies, and economic performances." In its latest earnings report, the company reported that costs were rising across all of its mines, for various reasons. These included the fatal accident at El Teniente and the 'poor ore quality in Ministro Hales, as well as maintenance costs in Chuquicamata in El Salvador, and Gabriela mistral. The cost of production and currency also increased. Bernardo Fontaine has announced that he is reviewing the company's projects and operations to restructure investment and production. Codelco is required by law to return all profits to the state, and its debt is now a major source of funding. This?debt also ballooned because of its multi-billion dollar mine expansion projects, which were meant to counter declining ore grades. However, they have been plagued with missteps. cost overruns. and accidents. Reporting by Fabian Cambero, Editing by Alexander Villegas & Nick Zieminski
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The extreme heat in India puts India's clothing goals at risk
Heat can cause garment factories to lose up to 10% of their productivity The heat is costing some workers a portion of their wages for health Heat could harm India's manufacturing drive, say experts By?BhaskerTripathi Researchers say that relying on garment workers' resilience to 'endure' the withering effects climate change is likely to undermine India’s ambition to become a global leader in garment manufacturing. This will also hinder India's efforts to boost exports of the garment sector from $40 billion currently to $100 billion by the year 2030. The Indian garment industry is estimated to employ around 45 million workers and contributes about 12% of the country's exports. Pal described how he felt at the end of his typical 15-hour workday. In a report published last month by the Stern Center for Business and Human Rights at New York University, it was stated that extreme heat caused more?absenteeism', lower productivity and product defects, as well as more frequent interruptions due to power failures and overheating machinery. The report stated that managers estimated productivity to have fallen between 3% and 10% during the peak summer months. Workers also reported health problems and wage losses. Lucy Siers said that the key lesson was that heat is no longer viewed as an issue of worker safety. It is becoming a more operational, productivity and supply chain resilient issue. Workers BEAR the burden Heatwatch India, a non-profit organization, and the Mumbai-based Tata Institute of Social Sciences conducted a study that found workers pay for extreme heat in poor health and by working longer hours or losing income. Apekshita Vashney, founder and CEO of HeatWatch India said that workers are currently bearing the largest share of climate adaptation costs. She said that she had not heard of any cases where buyers or brands have reduced production targets or adjusted schedules due to extreme heat. Varshney explained that workers often feel compelled to work despite their health problems because failing to meet targets can affect their wages and job security. Varshney said that factories often try to compensate for declining productivity with longer shifts and overtime, as well as additional working days. Varshney stated that adaptation measures are still uneven. The larger factories were able to install temperature monitoring systems and cooling systems, while smaller ones have struggled to provide basic amenities. Threat to Competitiveness The effects extend far beyond the factory floor. Anant Sudarshan of the University of Warwick in Britain, who studied heat and manufacturing in India said that there was evidence to suggest that worker performance decreased as temperatures rose. Sudarshan stated that "Extreme Heat is likely to be an important challenge for India's manufacturing growth". He said: "There are many studies from around the world that show labour productivity drops rapidly when temperatures exceed 30-35 degrees Celsius. (86-95?degrees Fahrenheit)." Sudarshan stated that cooling factories alone will not solve the problem, as workers and their family members are exposed to heat outside of the workplace. This contributes?to illness and absenceeeism. Sudarshan stated that North India is becoming "increasingly less attractive from a labour perspective", which reduces one of India's greatest competitive advantages - its abundance of relatively cheap labour. The problem extends beyond India Cornell University's ILR Global Labor Institute conducted a study in 2023 that estimated failure to address heat and flood could cost the clothing industries of Bangladesh and Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam $65 billion and nearly one million jobs by 2030. ADAPTING TO HEAT Siers, from New York University, said that extreme heat can be a threat to India's manufacturing goals if ignored. However, if properly addressed it shouldn't be an insurmountable barrier to growth. She said that because heat is predictable, businesses can prepare by improving factory design, monitoring heat, installing cooling systems, and implementing work-resting practices. Siers stated that "in a world warming, manufacturers who adapt to heat will be more efficient, more resilient and more competitive." Pal, a garment worker, works until late in the evening but says it is not enough to sustain his family.
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Brazil wants to increase its global share of critical mineral output to 12.2% in 2050
Brazil will 'unveil its National Mining Plan 2050' on Thursday. The Mines and Energy Ministry said that the plan aims to increase Brazil's share of global production of?critical minerals? to 12.2% in 2050, up from its current 8.3%. The draft plan will be submitted to the National Mining Policy Council, but it does not require its approval. Brazil will also reduce its dependence on imported phosphate and potassium fertilizers to 34.9%, from 87.3%. The government intends to publish an action plan more detailed within 180 days that will outline the measures to be taken over the next 4 years to implement "the 2050 Strategy". Rare earths are a critical mineral, which is abundant in Brazil, and essential for advanced technology. They have become a focal point of U.S.-China tensions over trade after Beijing started restricting the exports. According to U.S. Geological Survey data for 2026, Brazil's rare earth reserves are?second largest in the world after China. However, Brazil only accounts for?1% of the global output. (Reporting from Marcela Ayres, Brasilia. Additional reporting by Bernardo Caram. Editing by Tom Hogue.)
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Gold rises on weak employment data and lower oil ahead US payrolls report
Gold rose on Thursday, "bolstered" by soft jobs data, lower oil prices and comments from Federal Reserve Chair that inflation risks had eased ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data. As of 1101 GMT the spot gold price was up 0.9% to $4,064.41 an ounce after reaching its highest level since last June 23. After U.S. payrolls for June, the metal ended a two-day loss streak by closing higher at $4 029.89. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?decreased 0.1% to $4,076.60/oz. Nikos Tzabouras is a senior market analyst for Jefferies owned Tradu.com. He said that the precious metal was rebounding after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less hawkish remarks at ECB Forum. Warsh stated on Wednesday that the Fed is committed to bringing inflation back to its target of 2%, and warned against expecting a looser policy. According to CME FedWatch, traders see nearly 62% of a rate increase by September. Gold is a non-yielding asset that has a high opportunity cost. The World Gold Council?reported that central banks returned to buying in May. According to the latest data reported, official gold reserves increased a net of 41 tons in the month. Investors are now awaiting June nonfarm employment data due at 1230 GMT for more clues about the Fed's interest rate path. A survey of economists revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 110,00 jobs in June after increasing 172,000 jobs in May. Tzabouras said that any weakness in the data could help gold move towards $4,250 but not enough to lift it out of bearish territory. "Anything over 100,000?jobs will likely be enough to sustain Fed hike expectation and keep 'bullion vulnerable to further declines towards $3,500." Oil fell for the third day in a row after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made "progress" on indirect talks focused on the 'Strait Of Hormuz. Lower oil prices calm inflation fears, increasing bets on the Fed adopting a more flexible policy. (Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Leroy Leo) (Reporting from Sumit Saha, Bengaluru. Editing by Sonia Cheema & Leroy Leo).
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Nigeria is the first OPEC country to become an associate member of IEA
Nigeria 'has become the first OPEC -member to join the International Energy Agency (IEA) as an associate member. This step 'deepens ties between the global energy monitor and Africa’s largest oil producer. The move brings to the IEA network a nation of over 240 million people, which is a major oil &?gas exporter. However, it still faces serious domestic energy challenges including limited access to electricity and reliance on pollution-producing cooking fuels. Nigeria wants to 'expand its impact through increased refining and fuel exports, while the IEA aims to 'broaden its reach to major emerging -energy players. The IEA announced?on Thursday, that its governing council unanimously approved Nigeria’s entry. This expands a network which now represents more that 80% of the global energy demand. In a press release, Fatih Birol, the IEA's Executive Director said that Nigeria joining the global energy authority was a landmark for?global governance of energy. He added that "as Nigeria strives to'strengthen its energy security, support economic development and expand 'energy access, a deeper cooperation with the IEA would bring benefits to both sides." The IEA was 'created by oil-consuming countries and has since become one of the most influential organisations in energy policy. The IEA's association program aims to strengthen relations with major energy producing and energy consuming countries outside of its membership. Nigeria is the 14th member of its associate membership. (Reporting and writing by Anusha in Bengaluru, Chijioke Ahuocha. Editing by Barbara Lewis and Elaine Hardcastle).
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Rebels in Indonesian Papua have killed an American pilot and destroyed his plane, a spokesperson has said.
In Indonesia's restive eastmost region of Papua, rebels shot and killed an?American Pilot and set a civil plane on fire in what a spokesperson for a separatist group called a "message". The low-level struggle for independence from Indonesia has raged for years in the resource-rich western part of Papua. As independence fighters improved their weaponry, they became more deadly and frequent. Sebby Sambam, a representative of the West Papua National Liberation Army, an armed group that is a separatist, claimed their troops had shot and killed American pilot Nicholas F. Gosselin, then set his plane ablaze after it landed at the Yahukimo area in Highland Papua Province. He claimed that the aircraft was "frequently dropping Indonesian soldiers and violating TPNPB's Ultimatum." Yusuf Sutejo confirmed that a plane carrying an American pilot and seven passengers had been found burning at a local Yahukimo airport, but he could not confirm if it was attacked by rebels or if the pilot 'was killed. He said that all the passengers were 'Papuans. Sebby stated that the attack on the Balinggama District of Yahukimo sent a message to both the Indonesian government and the U.S. Government for "failing" to address the "root causes of the conflict between the Indonesian Military and the West Papua National Liberation Army in Papua." Sebby warned that rebels will begin to conduct attacks if Indonesia continues to allow civilian aircraft into the rebel-controlled'red zones' of Papua. According to a TPNPB video, rebels announced the attack with guns, axes, and the "Morning Star", a symbol for independence. The U.S. Embassy in Jakarta didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Indonesia's transport ministry?said Thursday that the plane had one pilot and seven passenger and flew to Yahukimo, another city in Papua Highlands. The plane had landed when the communications stopped. According to the?website, this aircraft is 'owned by airline operator PT AMA. Its planes deliver food, fuel, and mail to remote villages of Papua. PT AMA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. In a high profile?case, Papuan Rebels kidnapped New Zealand Pilot Phillip Mehrtens, after he landed a commercial plane in a remote mountainous area in Highland Papua. They released him in 2024. (Reporting and editing by Anandateresia, Stanley Widianto)
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The central bank of Russia says that higher gasoline imports will not weaken the rouble
The rouble will not be weakened by the need for Russia to import more gasoline following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries because exports of excess crude oil will increase, according to a top central bank official. Russia is importing gasoline from India by sea and plans to import up to 400,000 tons of fuel a month. This will help to alleviate the shortages which have caused long queues in filling stations. Calculations based on "market prices" suggest that these imports may cost around 60 billion roubles (roughly $767 million) per month. The rouble can be under pressure if imports are higher. However, Andrei Gangan of the Central Bank's monetary policies?department said that rising exports of crude oil that cannot be processed in-house would offset this effect. Gangan stated that although there would be an increase in imports in this category, the volume should not be large enough to change the trade trends fundamentally. Officials attribute the rouble's strength to Russia's distorted balance of trade and its weak imports which reduce demand for foreign currency. Since the beginning of June, the rouble has been losing 10% against the dollar. The currency gained 1.5% on 1 July after the central banks said that there was "less room" for a further cut to its main interest rate. The bank warned that fuel price increases could lead to an increase in inflation.
MORNING BID-Churning Chips
What is important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets
The?U.S. The?U.S.
It's not wise to read too much into the market movements this week due to the short week, the quarter-end trading quirks, and the looming payrolls reports, but there does seem to be some profit-taking going on, as well as portfolio reshuffling.
Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my column about the seemingly unstoppable growth of the U.S. economic over the last 17 years, and how it has affected the bull market in equity. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where I discuss the expected June job numbers. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear me discuss the most important news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
The Morning Bid Weekend is off for Independence Day tomorrow.
CHURNING?CHIPS On Wednesday, the U.S. SOX index of chips fell by about 6% without any obvious cause. The S&P 500 index ended the day flat while the equal-weighted index reached new highs. Asia's stocks followed the SOX today with significant declines by major chip and tech equipment manufacturers in Seoul and Tokyo. Meta, which lost 15% of its value in the first six months of this year, was an outlier on the US market, gaining nearly 9% Wednesday following a report stating that the company was expanding its cloud computing business and planning to sell surplus AI computing capacity. The FT reported Thursday that 'OpenAI' would offer the U.S. Government a 5% share. Payrolls are expected to show a brisk increase of 110,000 new jobs in the last month, well above the "breakeven rate" needed to maintain the unemployment rate. ADP's report on private sector employment was slightly below expectations, but it wasn't enough to change Federal Reserve expectations. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, was ambiguous in his assessment of the situation in Portugal on Tuesday. He said that the central bank is committed to getting the inflation rate back to 2%. However he noted there has been an improvement in the inflation outlook in recent weeks. While Fed futures still predict a rate increase by October, crude prices continue to fall amid positive reports about the talks between U.S. officials and Iranian officials in this week. Brent crude traded at $71 a barrel in the early hours of Thursday. In Europe, the euro zone CPI headline came in on Wednesday at 2.8%. This was well below expectations of 3%. This gives some hope that the ECB will be able to avoid any further rate increases now that energy costs are declining. The yen also jumped from its '40-year low on Wednesday, as fears of possible Bank of Japan support jangled. Reports indicate that Japan is looking at adopting a more opportunistic currency intervention strategy to ambush speculative bets, rather than telegraphing their plans or drawing lines on the sand.
Chart of the Day If AI will destroy job creation it hasn't happened yet. The U.S. economic sector posted its third consecutive month of high?job growth in May. Another 100,000 or more jobs are expected to be reported for June, when the monthly employment data is released on Thursday.
The average number of jobs added per month in the last three months was 188,000, which is nearly triple what it would have been for the same time period in 2025. This figure is also about 150,000 higher than the most common estimates that the break-even rate, or the rate at which the unemployment rate remains constant, should be around 150.000.
Watch today's events
* U.S.: June nonfarm payrolls (8:00 a.m. ET), weekly claims for unemployment (8:30 am EDT), and May factory orders (10:30 am EDT). EDT)
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed, speaks
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(source: Reuters)