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The falling energy prices will not deter the rising risks of civil unrest and violence in emerging markets

Analysts say that a drop in oil prices following a fragile U.S. - Iran truce helped to 'ease immediate inflationary tension in many emerging markets. However, 'cheaper oil will not be enough to defuse civil unrest, as the damage done by household finances is already done. Energy price increases and rising costs of living have been blamed for protests from Kenya to Indonesia to Bolivia in the last few weeks.

Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk consultancy based in the UK, said that civil unrest worldwide reached a six-year-high in the second quarter 2026. It creates a quarterly index that tracks recorded protest events worldwide over a rolling 12 month period. The index measures their frequency, size and severity. Brent oil prices are nearing $70 per barrel, a return to pre-conflict values after an agreement?last weekend between Washington and Tehran allowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The high energy prices have taken a toll on consumers. Oil prices are volatile, and any drop in the price of oil or other commodities when trade resumes through the Strait of Hormuz will take some time to reach consumers.

Torbjorn Sltvedt is the head of EMEA for Verisk Maplecroft. He said that inflationary pressures from disruptions to shipping and damage in energy infrastructure will continue into the second half 2026.

According to Verisk Maplecroft’s civil unrest Index, which measures protest sizes, deaths and commercial property damages, Iraq saw the largest proportional increase in protest activity of emerging markets during the last year.

According to the index, India has seen a significant increase in protests since the second quarter of last year.

In the last 12 months, several major emerging markets' risk scores have deteriorated. Brazil's risk score has deteriorated significantly. Iran's score, which was impacted by massive anti-government demonstrations and a crackdown in the first half of this year, also has deteriorated dramatically.

DIFFICULT DECISIONS

Not all governments are faced with the same decisions. According to Carmen Altenkirch of Aviva Investors, countries with fiscal buffers that are relatively stronger, such as Indonesia and Philippines, they can absorb some of the shock by subsidizing.

The fiscally weaker face a difficult choice: either pass on higher prices to the consumers and risk unrest or absorb the costs and slow down fiscal consolidation.

Soltvedt, Verisk Maplecroft, said that tighter public finances contributed to increasing inequality and poverty. Both are important risk drivers.

A few emerging economies, including Bangladesh, Pakistan and Kenya, have seen a slight improvement in their level of civil unrest over the last year. However, all of them remain in high-risk terrain.

Verisk Maplecroft identifies India, Mexico and Brazil as the most vulnerable countries.

Jervin Niaidoo is a political analyst with Oxford Economics. He flags Ethiopia as a country to watch, along with Tanzania, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Naidoo stated that "early signs of fuel protests are a kind of foreshadowing of what is to come on the rest of Africa."

The rating agency Moody's stated that the risk of negative actions is dependent on whether or not a government's response weakens fiscal trajectory.

The International Monetary Fund's programme can be complex, since the Fund has encouraged governments to avoid large subsidies.

Naidoo stated, "This is the place where you need to balance what you want to do with your domestic politics and what international lenders want you to." Kenya and Mozambique are among the countries that want to renew their IMF programme.

Nicholas Sauer, Robeco, says that bond investors are likely to tolerate temporary and targeted fiscal measures.

Some say that the direction in which fuel subsidy reform has progressed in emerging markets is generally correct.

Carlos de Sousa, Vontobel, said: "When you compare the fuel subsidies today with those in 2022, it is clear that there will be a reduction of fuel subsidies." The ceasefire is fragile and pressure may increase.

(source: Reuters)