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Rio Tinto's executive claims that the price of iron ore will rise in the next decade due to the depletion of mines.
Rio Tinto's executive stated on Wednesday that the supply pressure resulting from the depletion?of?iron ore mining operations built earlier in this century, such as those found in Australia, will?underpin iron ore prices and the market over the next decade. Rio expects that it will invest over $13 billion in new mines, plants and equipment in the Pilbara Region from 2025-2027. It estimates that 800 million tons of additional production is needed globally within the next decade. Just 300 millions tonnes have been committed. Matthew Holcz said at a luncheon event held by the Melbourne Mining Club that "it feels like every year, the demise is being greatly exaggerated". "While I believe the demand story is fairly well understood, I truly think it was on the supply-side, so disruptions have been understated," he said. He pointed to the annual cyclones which strike Western Australia's Pilbara Coast from November to March. Holcz said, "I believe the rate of depletion has been greatly underestimated." "If we take a look at the years when the industry boomed - 2005, 2010, and 2015 - a lot of these?assets? are now 15, 20, or more than 20 years old, and the size of the iron ore sector... has grown." Holcz stated that the investment in new supply today is a fraction of what it was at the beginning of last decade. "Marginal costs have increased a lot... we believe there is good price support at the levels we've enjoyed in recent years." China's iron ore demand will remain stable until 2030, then decline slightly. However, the Global South, and in particular India, is expected to boost demand. Rio estimates that India could become a net importer of iron ore around 2035. LEVERAGE CHANGE Holcz stated that tensions between buyers and suppliers always existed, but Rio was focused on "win-win opportunities" and long-term ties. In remarks made on the sidelines, he said: "The balance between supply and demand has changed." "You have a market that is much more balanced, and that has certainly shifted some leverage." Holcz, in referring to union issues in the Pilbara where workers will strike this weekend at BHP’s Port Hedland operation, favored a “direct relationship” with workers, which he claimed?has historically resulted in better outcomes. The future capital expenditure decisions will be based on the competition, industrial relations, and taxation elsewhere. Australia has fallen behind in these areas. Holcz said that Rio Tinto has no significant exposure to the iron ore trader Radiant World. Bloomberg News reported last week that trading houses Vitol and?Cargill had stopped dealing with Radiant World because they were concerned about the validity of invoices sent to their banks. Radiant World denies this. Holcz stated that "from a Rio Tinto point of view, there's no exposure here about which we're worried." (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Melbourne, Melanie Burton reported from Melbourne)
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Copper prices are weighing on demand, slowing the copper rally
Copper prices rose on Wednesday, but remained below the highs of yesterday. This was due to a combination of waning inventories and improving risk sentiment. Benchmark 'three-month copper' on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.18% to $14,091.5 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose by 0.96%, to 107.340 yuan (15,908.82 dollars) per ton. Prices reached a two-month peak on Tuesday and surpassed the psychological $14,000 per tonne for the first since early June. Red metal prices have been boosted by a decline in inventories, as more material has been brought into the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs on refined copper. The total copper stock in LME registered warehouses Since the end of May, prices have dropped by almost 40%. Daniel Hynes is a senior commodity strategist with ANZ. He said that the US imported over 200,000 tons copper in July, which was the largest monthly influx since 2014. The LME spread from cash to three-months reflected the supply pressure on physical materials The red metal was supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and a better?risk sentiment from cooling fears about escalation in the Middle East. The red metal also benefited from a better macroeconomic outlook, and a better risk sentiment due to easing fears of escalation within the Middle East. Analysts from Chinese broker Everbright Futures stated in a report that high copper prices were beginning to impact demand. They questioned the strength of the seasonal demand for the second half of the year. Yangshan Copper Premium According to SMM, an indicator of physical demand in China's largest consumer, the price per ton dropped to $110 on Tuesday. Aluminium gained?0.23% on the LME, while zinc gained 0.94%. Lead added a?0.37%. Nickel lost 0.42%. Tin gained 0.9%. Aluminium gained 0.25% among SHFE metals. Zinc rose 1.88%. Lead rose 2.77%. Nickel lost 0.79%. Tin rose 1.56%.
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The stock market in Australia and New Zealand ends at a record high
Equities in Australia, New Zealand and Canada closed at record highs on Wednesday. In Sydney, miners and tech stocks led the way following a rally of U.S. technology shares and hopes for easing Middle East tensions. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia rose 0.9%, closing at an all-time high of 9,227.80. In New Zealand, the equivalent index finished 0.7% higher with a record 13,997.18. The relative strength index of the benchmark ASX200 index, which has been rising for four consecutive sessions, is now in overbought territory and at its highest level since mid-June, 2025. The risk appetite was strong following the strong rally of U.S. and European stocks on the backs of strong AI-driven profits, with the easing oil prices further boosting the mood. The ASX200 index received support as new money entered the market to start the new financial calendar year. It also attracted new inflows from investors looking for a low-beta destination that would help them ride out the volatility of high-beta markets, especially those in Asia, which are tech-heavy. Investors are now focusing on the August earnings season. A packed reporting calendar is likely to drive sentiment over the next few weeks. Sycamore believes the ASX 200 is at risk of sliding and retesting the 9,000-level. A sustained breakout will be unlikely before the reporting season ends and may not occur until September. The rise in iron ore prices led to a?3.7% increase for the miners on the day. BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all gained between 0.6% to 3.3%. The gold miners posted their best session in a little over a month, with a gain of?6.4%. The Wall Street rise led to a 2.5% increase in tech stocks, which reached an eight-week record. Financials, which had been gaining, fell?0.4%, their worst day for?about two-weeks. The "big four" banks declined between 0.4% to 1.4%. The weaker oil price caused energy stocks to fall 2.2%. This was their worst session in more than a week. (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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Voestalpine tops profit forecast on stronger steel margins, aerospace demand
Voestalpine, an Austrian steelmaker, reported on Wednesday that its core earnings for the first quarter were 'above expectations.' This was boosted by strong aerospace demand and resilient steel margins. The company reported quarterly earnings of EUR495 millions ($571million), up from EUR361 millions a year earlier and slightly higher than the EUR491 milliards expected by LSEG's polled analysts. It said that the earnings included a one-off positive effect of approximately EUR100 million relating to the sale of its subsidiary Boehler Profil, and reorganisations measures in the High Performance Metals Division. Steel division of the company increased quarterly EBITDA to?14.3%, up from 12.7% during the same period in last year. This was due to lower raw materials and energy costs. Voestalpine was also optimistic about the European steel market. It said that the European Union has established a "significantly stronger" trade framework with its new safeguard measures. European steelmakers are benefiting from EU measures to protect domestic producers from cheaper imports. These include tighter steel import quotas in place since July and the introduction of carbon border levies on high-emission products from the start of 2026. Voestalpine's aerospace business continues to perform well, but U.S. tariffs and weak demand continue to impact its tubulars operations that serve the oil and gas industry. The Linz-based 'group has confirmed its outlook for financial year 2026/27, which began on April 1.
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Oil slides, tech sentiment shifts and stocks rise in Asia
The Asian stock market jumped Wednesday as Wall Street reached record highs on the back of robust earnings, and a renewed interest in tech. Meanwhile, oil prices and bond yields fell on hopes of progress regarding opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan's Nikkei rose 3.5% as more evidence of the huge sums spent on 'AI?capex was revealed, while South Korea maintained its wild swings and rose 4.3%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 2.3% while blue chips in China gained 1.5%. The rally in tech came despite AMD's setback. AMD fell 8.8% following hours, as its earnings exceeded Street expectations but fell short of the sky-high investor expectations. SpaceX, a satellite company and AI group, lost 7.5% on concerns that capex would eat up its entire cash flow. The rising borrowing costs in the AI sector have been a constant concern for all AI stocks. Chris Weston is the head of research for broker Pepperstone. He said that "SpaceX's ambitious investment program?means that additional capital will most likely be needed in the medium- to long-term." Investors will continue to be interested in how management finances growth and at what price. SpaceX investors will be tested again on Thursday when up to 912 millions shares owned by employees and other stakeholders in the pre-IPO become eligible for a?sale. The Nasdaq was flat after the earnings report, but S&P futures rose 0.3% on Tuesday. EUROSTOXX Futures gained 0.3% while?DAX Futures rose 0.5%, and FTSE Futures added 0.2%. BONDS ARE HELPED BY OIL?SLIDE Qatar's claim that mediators are making progress to end the U.S./Iran War, but without providing details, boosted sentiment. Brent crude dropped by 0.6% to $78.85 per barrel, which is a far cry from its peak of $102 in July. U.S. crude was down 0.9% at $75.09. John Oh, a CBA energy economist, said that ship tracking data suggested that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was more resilient than initially thought. It may have reached 40% to 45% of its pre-war level last week. He wrote that "we estimate traffic flows need only return to 50-60% of pre-war levels" to establish oversupply on global oil markets. Brent oil futures have moved into the 70s because markets are justified in pricing in oversupply concerns when there is hope that the strait will be reopened. The drop in oil prices has helped to ease inflation concerns and led to a global bond rally, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at 4,603%, down from the high of last week, which was 4.747%. The markets also reduced the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September to 57%, from 67%. Jeff Schmid, President of the Fed Bank of Kansas City, spoke on Tuesday and called for a tighter policy in order to bring inflation to its 2% target. The currencies were mostly quiet. However, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.3% following data showing that unemployment reached a decade-high of 5.6% during the second quarter. The euro remained flat at $1.1537. It was just a few cents shy of its recent high of $1.1559, which it reached in the last six weeks. Dollar was slightly lower against the yen, at 157.63. The threat of an intervention still loomed over traders. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that he is confident Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda "will do what is best" to help the economy. This was interpreted by markets as an encouragement to increase interest rates. Last week, Japan and the United States conducted a rare joint intervention to buy yens and promised to take additional action to stabilize the currency if necessary. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to rise 1.6%, reaching $4,140 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs, Shri Navaratnam and Wayne Cole)
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Gold gains due to lower oil prices and weaker dollar
Gold rose for a third session in a row on Wednesday. This was helped by the softer dollar and lower crude oil prices. Investors were waiting for U.S. employment data to get a sense of interest rate outlook. By 0455 GMT spot gold had risen 1.4% to $4,133.83 an ounce, which was a new two-week high. U.S. Gold Futures rose 1%, to $4191.90. Holders of other currencies will find greenback-priced gold more appealing. Oil continued to decline after two days of steep drops. Lower oil prices can reduce inflation fears that are often the cause of expectations for higher interest rates. Qatar stated that mediators were making progress to end the U.S. - Iran war. However, Tehran denied U.S. president Donald Trump's claim that "talks have already begun." Gold's relationship with oil remains intact, as oil prices have a huge impact on the global economy when it comes to inflationary pressure. Gold prices may rise if we have a roadmap for further de-escalation of tensions," said Kelvin Woong, senior market analyst at OANDA. The probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting on September 15-16 has dropped from 67% to 59%. In a high-interest rate environment, gold tends to lose appeal despite its role as an inflation hedge. It pays no interest. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president?Anna Paulson stated that she was keeping an "open-mind" in regards to the future of monetary policy, which could include higher interest rates. The ADP Employment Report due later in the day, and the July payrolls reports scheduled for Friday were on the minds of traders. Analysts from TD Securities stated in a report that they expect gold to stay range-bound 'near its current levels. Spot silver rose 2% to $60.70 an ounce, and platinum rose 1% to $1.751.03 after reaching its highest level in mid-June. Palladium increased 0.5% to $1360.25 after reaching a two-month high.
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Rio Tinto's executive claims that the price of iron ore will be driven by the depletion of mines in the next decade.
Rio Tinto's executive said on Wednesday that the supply pressure from depleting iron ore mining operations?built in the early part of this century, like those in Australia, will drive iron ore prices and the market over the next decade. Rio expects that it will invest over $13 billion in new mines, plants and equipment in the Pilbara Region between 2025 and 2027. It is estimated that 800 million tonnes of additional production must be added worldwide within the next decade just to maintain supply. Only 300 millions tonnes have been committed. Matthew Holcz said at a luncheon event held by the Melbourne Mining Club that "it feels like the demise is exaggerated every year". He said that while the story of demand 'has been fairly well understood', it was really on 'the supply side', and disruptions have been under-estimated. Holcz said, "I believe the rate of depletion has been greatly underestimated." "If we consider the years when the industry boomed - 2005, 2010, and 2015 - a lot of these assets are now 15, 20, and the size of the iron ore sector and the amount we're consuming has grown." Holcz stated that the investment made today in new supply projects is a fraction of what was invested at the beginning of last decade. "Marginal costs have risen significantly... we believe there is good price support at the levels we've enjoyed in recent years." China's iron ore demand will remain stable until 2030 and then decline?slightly. However, the Global South?will step up to boost demand, particularly India. Rio expects India to become a net importer of iron ore around 2035. He said, "We think that demand will be stable." (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Melbourne, Melanie Burton reported from Melbourne)
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Semis fly again while AI capex shoots to the moon
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Asian markets followed Wall Street's record-breaking close by gaining in major semiconductor stocks. They ignored setbacks for SpaceX and AMD, which failed to meet high expectations. The Kospi grew by 4.0%, but by recent'standards, that was a tame increase, led by SK Hynix, and Samsung. As a sign that the competition is intensifying in the memory industry, the tech giants have been reported to be evaluating the chipmaking equipment of China's Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment for use at their Chinese plants. It could be a bad thing for Applied Materials, Lam Research and other companies that currently export etching tools to the United States. SpaceX's problems seem to be a lack of cash flow. Capex increased by?over $18 billion. Nearly $16 billion was spent on AI. Analysts were concerned that the company would be burning through its cash at such an ferocious rate, it would need to return to the market to raise more funds through debt or shares. In recent weeks, its bonds have been beaten up. On Thursday, 911.5 millions insider shares and employee stock will be available for sale. SpaceX stock was down 7.5% in after-hours trading, wiping out the gains of 9.4% made during regular trading. AMD also lost 8.8% of its share price after-hours as its outlook and sales surpassed the Street's, but not enough to justify its 142% rise in shares so far this year. Brent oil fell another 1.5% to $78.24 per barrel, a far cry from the 'lofty' peak of $102 in June. The decline in bonds pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 5.60%. Markets also reduced their tightening expectations, with implied odds for a September rate hike dropping to 57%. Qatar announced on Tuesday that mediators are making progress to end 'the U.S. - Iran war', though details are hard to come by and Tehran will not confirm its participation in the talks. Investors are concerned that the market will quickly shift to oversupply if the Strait of Hormuz opens even slightly. In Europe, Siemens Energy, Infineon and Heineken will be reporting earnings in the near future, as well as a number of banks. U.S. earnings include DoorDash and eBay as well as?Uber. Eli Lilly, Honeywell Kraft Heinz SanDisk Western Digital?and Walt Disney. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. - Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks Data includes EU S&P Service PMIs for the month of July, EU Producer Prices for June, US Services ISM, S&P Services PMI and ADP Employment for July
Trump: US and Iran have'very positive discussions'
President Donald Trump stated that his administration had "very positive discussions" with Iran on Tuesday during the all-day talks, which fueled expectations of a quick end to the five-month conflict. In Asian trade, oil prices dropped and stocks soared on Wednesday following Wall Street's record highs. This was on the hope that a deal would soon be struck to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said on Fox News' "@ night" program that the negotiations lasted all day. Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened very soon. If they retreat again, they will be hit hard.
Trump has threatened massive strikes against Iran if it does not agree to a deal. He then claims that talks have made progress, but the hostilities are still ongoing.
Axios reported, citing two sources in the region and an official from the United States, that the U.S., Iran, and Oman (which controls a part of the waterway) are close to reaching a temporary agreement for the reopening of the strait. Washington reportedly aimed to make an announcement by Wednesday.
Iranian state media, citing a source informed, stated that an agreement with Oman regarding the strait - which normally carries around a fifth the global oil and LNG shipments - will be delayed as long as "the United States continue to threaten Iran."
QATAR ALSO MENTIONS PROGRESS IN TALKS
Trump has not yet achieved?the goals he set at the beginning of the war, namely dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, curbing the country’s ability to attack rivals in the region and creating the?conditions that would allow Iranians to topple their clerical leaders.
Iran has halted the majority of traffic through Hormuz, while Washington continues to blockade Iran-related ports and shipping.
Qatar said earlier that mediators are making progress to end the war, despite Tehran's denial that any talks were taking place.
Trump and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani spoke on the phone Tuesday about efforts to narrow differences between Washington, D.C. and Tehran as well as improving prospects for a long-lasting settlement.
Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, told state media that talks with Oman about transiting the strait are positive and ongoing, and?focused on creating safe shipping lanes. He said the route under negotiation was intended to ensure the sovereignty rights and national safety of both Iran, and Oman.
Iran has been demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz for years. It says it should share the Strait with Oman, on the other side. Tehran, however, rejected an Omani proposal that would have allowed for a'shared oversight' and the collection of voluntary fees by ships. Yemen's Houthis, who are Iran-aligned, have also imposed an oil export blockade in the Red Sea on Saudi Arabia. Indian officials reported that a projectile hit an Indian flagged vessel near Yemen causing it to sink and 'capsize.' However, all 14 seafarers were rescued. Yemen blamed the attack on 'the Houthis.
Since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, the International Maritime Organization of the United Nations has reported that at least 17 seafarers have died in 64 incidents along the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. attack on Qeshm, which occurred in late July, killed two parents and a 2-year-old child. This is in addition to the 50 deaths and 500 injuries reported by the Iranian government since the hostilities resumed in late June.
Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched the war in February 28, Iran has reported over 3,400 deaths. The U.S. military has reported 18 fatalities. (Reporting and writing by Bureaus; Lincoln Feast, Daniel Trotta; Editing Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)