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Gold reaches a record high in less than a week on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes
Gold prices reached a record high of more than one week?on Tuesday, following reports that the U.S. may be close to a peace agreement with Iran. This quelled fears of inflation and a prolonged period of high interest rates. By 8:50 am EDT (1250 GMT), spot gold had risen 2.7% to $4678.95 an ounce, after reaching its highest level in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 2.7% to $4690.20. The dollar index fell 0.5%. The dollar index dropped 0.5%, lowering the price of metals in greenbacks for holders of other currencies. "The optimism regarding a final deal between the U.S.and Iran has caused some short-term relief for gold.?With lower oil prices and moderated inflation worries, as well as shifted biases in regards to Fed action later in the year," Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. "I wouldn't necessarily say that we're out of the woods. The market will continue to pivot around Middle East headlines. A source in Pakistan, the mediator in the Gulf war, and another source who was briefed about the mediation both said that Washington and Tehran were close to an agreement over a memorandum of one page. The news of a possible agreement led to a drop in global oil prices, with benchmark Brent crude futures dropping to around $100 per barrel. High oil prices can cause inflation fears and prompt central banks keep rates high in order to combat price pressures. Gold is a hedge against rising inflation but it suffers in a high rate environment as it pays no interest. Investors will be watching the release of the monthly U.S. Employment Report on Friday. This report will test if the U.S. Economy is resilient enough to maintain the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies on hold or if a softening labour market could revive the argument for rate cuts. ADP's National Employment Report showed that U.S. payrolls increased in April more than anticipated. Silver spot rose by 5.5%, to $76.81 an ounce. Platinum gained 3.5%, to $2,020.50, and palladium increased 3.9%, to $1,543.76. (Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Paul Simao.)
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Exelon's power rates and demand exceed quarterly estimates
Exelon, the U.S. utility, exceeded Wall Street expectations for first-quarter adjusted profits on Wednesday. This was due to higher electricity prices, strong?demand, and favorable weather. As tech giants build out massive data centers for artificial intelligence tasks, power?companies in the U.S. are raising prices and increasing capital expenditures to keep up with demand. Rate-case processes are used by regulated utilities to determine the amount customers will be charged for electricity, natural gas and other services like private water and steam. Exelon has increased its capital spending forecast to $41.7 billion over the next four-year period, up from $41.3 billion. The utility is expected to see an increase of 7.9% in its regulated assets. The net income of Illinois' largest electricity utility, Commonwealth Edison (ComEd), rose to $310 millions. Exelon’s PECO unit - Pennsylvania's largest natural gas and electric utility - saw its earnings rise?4.5%, to $278 million. Exelon has reaffirmed that its adjusted profit guidance for 2026 is between $2.81 and 2.91 per share. According to data compiled LSEG, the Chicago-based firm posted a?adjusted profit of 91?cents per share? for the three'months? ended March 31? compared to analysts' average estimates?of 89?cents per share? Varun Sahay, Bengaluru. Diti pujara, editing.
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Copper prices rise on optimism about a possible US-Iran Peace Deal
On 'Wednesday', copper prices reached their highest level in almost two weeks on hopes that Iran and the U.S. are nearing a deal to end the Middle East?war. The benchmark three-month 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange increased 2.1% to $13,410 per metric ton during official open-outcry trade for a third consecutive session. It had earlier reached its highest level since April 23, at $13,462. Sources said that the United States and Iran were close to an agreement over a memorandum of understanding (MOU) of one page in order to end the Gulf War. Robert Montefusco, broker at?Sucden financial, said that copper is strong following the headlines about Iran and U.S. agreeing on a one-page memorandum. The oil market is also falling and then other markets are rising again. After the release of the report about a one-page memo to end the conflict, stocks jumped. Brent crude oil fell 10% below $100 per barrel for the very first time since April 22. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded copper contract rose 1.6%, to 102660 yuan (15,029.98 dollars) per ton. The Chinese markets returned to trading on May Day after the May Day holiday. Montefusco noted that the metals market also received a boost from data indicating services activity in China's top metals consumer grew at a faster rate in April. This was aided by a stronger growth of new business. LME aluminium fell 1.3% to $3,544.50 per ton in anticipation of an end to Middle East supply disruptions. About?9% global aluminium production is produced in the Middle East. Analysts at ANZ predict that aluminium prices will remain skewed upwards, trading?above 3,400 a ton. In a recent note, they stated that "if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, prices could?briefly drop, but renewed stocking by manufacturers will limit any significant downturn." Lead rose 0.8% to $1,987.50 and zinc climbed 1.4% to $3,419 while tin jumped by 6% to $52,695. Zinc rose 1.4% to $3 419, while tin increased by 6% to $52,695. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman. Additional reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru, Swati verma from Bengaluru.
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NRG Energy misses its quarterly profit forecast due to mild Texas weather and higher costs
NRG Energy, a power producer in Texas, missed Wall Street expectations for the first quarter adjusted profit. Compared to $163 million a quarter ago, the company's interest expenses in?the?quarter rose to $285 millions. This was due to costs associated with a completed acquisition of assets for power generation from investment firm LS Power. The?deal, valued at $12 billion? included costs related to this deal. NRG, based in Houston, Texas, saw its operating costs increase by 33.4%. They now total $9.93 billion. The company anticipates that commercial operations will begin at the 415 megawatt T.H. The company expects to start commercial operations at its first project in Texas, the Wharton facility, by the end of May. The company plans to return nearly $400 million in dividends to common stock holders and $1 billion through share repurchases by 2026. Robert Gaudette, an insider, succeeded Larry Coben on April 30, as CEO of the company. NRG reported quarterly revenue of $10.26?billion, an increase from $8.59 billion a year earlier. Its Texas division posted a first-quarter adjusted profit of $216m, down from $299m a year earlier, due to mild winter weather that saw a 30% drop in heating degree days, leading to a 'lower retail load. The company confirmed its adjusted earnings forecast for?2026 of $7.90 to $8.90 per share. LSEG data shows that the adjusted profit per?share of $1.49 for the three-month period ended?March 31, fell short of the analysts' average estimate, which was $1.78. (Reporting and editing by Shreya biswas in Bengaluru, Pooja menon in Bengaluru)
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Oil prices fall and global stocks rise after Iran peace deal report
After a report that the White House was close to a final agreement on a memorandum ending the war with Iran and the momentum in AI-driven trading accelerated, the stock market soared. Axios, a news outlet, reported that the U.S. expects Iran to respond on key issues in the next 48-hours. On Wednesday, a Pakistani source who is involved in peace efforts confirmed that the report was true. Brent crude, the benchmark global oil price, fell 10.6% to $98.20 a barrel, its lowest level in two weeks. Axios reported that both sides would lift restrictions on transiting the waterway. STOXX 600 Index in Europe extended gains, and ended the day with a 2.6% gain after gaining 0.7% the previous day. MSCI's All-Country World Index rose 0.9%, setting a new record. Futures for U.S. S&P 500 increased 0.9% a day after index rose 0.8%, driving the index to its latest record high. This was driven by strong earnings of companies and excitement over artificial intelligence. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "A pretty puny move on those stories. It's almost like the market is now in a 'buy-everything' mode." He said that it was difficult to predict how close we were to a final deal. Market participants are not going to wait for confirmation of positive news, but are now essentially front-running an outcome that is positive. The U.S. Dollar, which was a safe-haven currency during the Iran War, fell 0.55% versus its major counterparts, indicating investor hope for a potential deal. As traders reduced their bets about central bank rate increases, the yields on government debt fell with oil prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 7 basis points, to 4.35%. Although the stock market has risen sharply, turmoil in the energy and bond markets may weigh on global growth. Oil prices are 35% higher now than when the conflict started in late February. 10-year Treasury yields have also risen by around 40 basis points. Analysts have also warned that a deal for peace is not certain. Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a senior analyst with Swissquote. He said that "the probability of disappointment looms" and suggested that some of the gains might be reversed. AI RALLY BUOSTS GLOBAL??STOCKS The broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 3.2%. Samsung Electronics soared by 14% and surpassed Berkshire Hathaway in market value. Rushil Khanna is the head of equity investments in Asia for Ostrum, a Natixis Investment Managers affiliate. He said: "Due the capex spending we see from (AI hyperscalers) in the U.S. the earnings growth trajectory in Asia for sectors like semiconductors, tech, industrials, and materials exceeds anything that I have seen in a long time." Shares of chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices in the U.S. jumped by?16% during extended trading on Tuesday after the company announced second-quarter revenue that was above Wall Street's expectations. This helped drive AI enthusiasm across markets. The yen also strengthened on other foreign exchange markets. It gained as much as 1.8%, to 155, against the dollar, as traders continued to watch for new intervention from authorities in Tokyo, in support of this beleaguered currency. Harry Robertson reported from London, and Gregor Stuart Hunter from Singapore. Thomas Derpinghaus edited the story with Kirsty Donovan, Joe Bavier and Thomas Derpinghaus.
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Zelenskiy accuses Russia for rejecting Kyiv's ceasefire proposal
Ukraine accused Russia on Wednesday of violating a Kyiv proposed ceasefire by carrying out dozens battlefield assaults, drone attacks and air?strikes. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called this Moscow's "obvious spurning of peace". Zelenskiy floated the cessation starting on 6 May in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal of a ceasefire between 8 and 9 May to coincide with World War Two Victory Commemorations. Zelenskiy stated that Russia, which had not confirmed its agreement with Ukraine's proposal, had committed 1,820 violation?by Wednesday morning. He said that "Russia's decision is an obvious rejection of a ceasefire, and the saving of lives." Two people killed in drone strikes Officials from the northeastern Sumy area said that two people died in separate Russian drone strikes on a car for civilians and a kindergarten where no children were present. Officials said that air raids after midnight damaged private buildings, infrastructure and industrial sites in major cities like Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih, where an attack on the city Tuesday left 12 dead. Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Foreign Minister on X, said: "This shows Russia rejects peace?and that its fake calls for ceasefire?on the 9th of May have nothing to do diplomacy." "Putin is only concerned about military parades and not human life." Rival overtures are made amid the stalled U.S. peace talks to end a war that has lasted more than four years, as Russia continues its offensive to seize the eastern Donetsk area of Ukraine. RUSSIA WARNS ITS RESPONSE TO ATTACKS This week, Russia will have a trimmed-down version of its annual military parade held in central Moscow. The reason given is the increased threat from Ukrainian attacks. Zelenskiy stated on Wednesday that officials will decide later on the day on "further action" in response to Russia’s attacks. He had said earlier that Kyiv will act "symmetrically", if the ceasefire is violated. The Russian defence ministry warned on Monday that they would "respond" to Ukrainian attacks at victory celebrations by launching a massive missile attack against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. It said: "We're warning the citizens of Kyiv, as well as the staff of foreign diplomatic missions to leave the city quickly." Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, said that an Ukrainian drone struck a building overnight in Russia's capital but caused no injuries. According to some Ukrainians, any unilateral attempts by their military force to maintain a ceasefire would be fruitless as long as?cities remain under attack and frontline troops are still being attacked. "Perhaps we should act like Russia." Nataliia FOMENEK, 52, from Kyiv, said: "We should not be silent and we shouldn't observe the truce." "We don't have any other option." (Additional reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Lincoln Feast, Alison Williams and Andrew Heavens)
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Canadian retailer Loblaw misses revenue estimates amid cautious consumer spending
Canadian retailer Loblaw missed Wall Street expectations for the first quarter revenue on Wednesday, as consumers become more cautious in their spending amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. Lower-income Canadians are cutting back on non essential spending due to a squeeze on their household budgets caused by?higher prices for groceries, higher crude oil prices from Iran's war, and increased inflation. Retailers in North America are feeling the pinch. U.S. supermarket Albertsons forecasted soft sales last month, and Canadian discount retailer Dollarama projected a year-end?sales that were largely below expectations. Loblaw continues to expect that its adjusted net income will grow in the high single-digits. The retailer stated that?its discount brands, such as?No Frills? and?Maxi?, continue to perform well, while it continues to focus on its core operations. In the last quarter, same-store sales increased by 2.4% in its food retail segment as well as 4.1% in its drug retail division. LSEG data shows that the company's revenue for the quarter grew 4% on an annual basis to C$14.48 ($10.65) billion, but fell short of analysts' expectations at C$14.55?? billion. Analysts' expectations were met when it posted adjusted earnings per share of 52 Canadian Cents for the quarter ended March 28. Loblaw announced in March that it was investigating data breaches after criminals accessed basic customer data on a non-critical portion of its IT network. However, no passwords, financial or health data, were compromised.
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Pirelli will make Cyber Tyres for the US after Italy limits China's influence
Pirelli announced on Wednesday that it would begin producing Cyber Tyres for the United States after Italy curbed its influence with Sinochem, the Chinese investor of the premium tyre manufacturer, in an effort to aid the company's expansion across the Atlantic. Italy's government resolved a dispute last month over Sinochem’s stake in Pirelli by using "golden powers". Sinochem, Pirelli's largest shareholder with a stake of 34.1%, was the cause of the dispute. Sinochem fears that Pirelli may fall foul of U.S. regulations restricting use of Chinese technology within?the automotive sector. Pirelli announced that it would manufacture its connected Cyber Tyre Products at its U.S. facility in Rome, Georgia, "strengthening its integrated industrial and technology presence in the country". Cyber Tyre Technology combines sensors embedded into tyres and?software capable of transmitting real-time vehicle data. Pirelli's?Cyber Tire technology was presented at the SelectUSA Investment Summit of the U.S. SelectUSA Investment Summit, hosted by the Commerce Department. After finalising the development plans for its Georgia factory that already produces Pirelli premium tires and includes an R&D center, the company will reveal more details regarding its U.S. investments in the next few months. Claudio?Zanardo, Pirelli North America's CEO said that the move "reflects our commitment in bringing advanced technology...?closer? to the market and further strengthening our industrial foothold and innovation capabilities here in the United States." Citi analysts stated that while it is a low-volume product the Department of Commerce has "become more comfortable" with Pirelli investing in capex and producing this technology-rich product. Pirelli sees the U.S. as a major market for its most advanced products. The?U.S. While the?U.S. (Reporting and editing by Alvise Armallini and Alexander Smith.)
The end of MORNING BID AMERICA is in sight.
Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets.
After reports that the U.S., Iran and other countries were "close to a memorandum of one page" ending the Gulf War, oil prices plummeted and global stocks surged. This news was released just days after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would pause the operation to reopen Gulf shipping. The broader stock indexes did not need an excuse to rise, as newly upgraded AI expenditure estimates lifted Wall Street and global markets on Tuesday.
Below, I will go into more detail. Check out my most recent column about what investors could expect from long bonds with a yield over 5% in an uncertain environment. Listen to the most recent episode of Morning Bid, the daily podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
A FINAL END IS IN SIGHT Axios reported that the apparent U.S. Iran deal on one page would include?both parties unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz among other provisions. According to the report, the U.S. is expecting Iranian responses within 48 hours on key issues. Brent crude traded as low as $100 a barrel after the news. MSCI's global index reached a new high on Wednesday, as global stocks soared once more on renewed peace hopes and robust AI demands. Wall Street futures rose ahead of the bell while European shares reached a new two-week high following the opening. In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI broke the 7,000-mark for the first time as Samsung Electronics surged 12% in a semiconductor rally to join the club of trillion-dollar stocks. On Tuesday, U.S. stock prices also reached new records. Intel jumped 13% after reports it was in talks with Apple about producing the main processors of its devices. AMD jumped 16% on extended trading, as the chipmaker increased its demand forecasts.
This week, however, the price of long-dated government securities has been under pressure. Tuesday, the 30-year Treasury yield in the United States briefly exceeded 5% before reversing for the eighth time in the last three years. Gilts also suffered as British long-term borrowing rates reached their highest level since 1998. This comes just before the UK local elections, which will be held on Thursday. A poor performance by Keir's Labour Party, which is in power under Prime Minister Keir starmer could lead to increased political pressure for him to resign. The yen rose again Wednesday, for the fourth time this week. It reached 155 dollars per yen before reversing some of the gains. This was due to speculation that 'Tokyo would intervene. Sources claim that it intervened to support the currency on Thursday. The rest of the week in the US is dominated by a flurry of corporate earnings, and an important labor-market data week. Companies like Disney, Uber, and Apollo will be reporting their results on Wednesday. The latest U.S. Employment Report for April is expected to show a decline of 178,000 jobs from March, and a gain in employment of 62,000.
Chart of the day
According to LSEG Research, the S&P 500 is on track to achieve an aggregate earnings increase of 28% for the first quarter. This would be the strongest quarterly profit growth seen since 2021. In a previous month, the estimate was only 14%. The forecast for 2026 is now 23% higher than it was at the beginning of this year.
Watch today's events
* U.S. Corporate Earnings: Apollo, DoorDash?, Uber, Walt Disney and Warner Bros
Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed and Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed, speak
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(source: Reuters)