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Oil prices rise as US-Iran truce prospects dim

The stock market in Asia fell on Tuesday, while oil prices eased and remained above $100 per barrel. This is as the U.S. continues to work with Iran towards a ceasefire while also trading blows across the Strait of Hormuz.

The yen was also in traders' sights after it briefly jumped during the previous session. This fueled speculation about another round of intervention by Tokyo.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell by 0.3%. In a thinned Asia market, shares in Australia dropped 0.4%. Markets in Japan and South Korea had a holiday.

Nasdaq and S&P futures both fell about 0.1%, while EUROSTOXX futures dropped 0.2% and FTSE Futures dropped 0.75%.

U.S. and Iran launched a new attack in the Gulf Monday, as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz through dueling maritime blockades. This comes just a few days after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a new initiative to help stranded ships and tankers pass the crucial energy-trade chokepoint.

Maersk has confirmed that the Alliance Fairfax, an American-flagged vehicle ship operated by Farrell Lines, left the Gulf on Monday via the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by U.S. Military assets.

The renewed hostilities still jolted the markets and served to remind us that the Middle East war is far from over.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "We began yesterday with high expectations that 'Project Freedom,' as it's called, would be a success, on the ground. It was being marketed more as a humanitarian endeavor."

As we could see, the Iranians didn't take that bait. This really indicates that the stalemate is still in place, and it has been a very shaky beginning."

Brent crude futures dropped 0.5% to $113.85 per barrel, while U.S. Crude fell 1.3% to $105.03 after spiking in the previous session due to increased concerns about supply disruption.

Investors were also preparing for this week's earnings reports, as Advanced Micro Devices, Pfizer, and others would be releasing results in the afternoon.

S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that 83% of S&P500 companies have already reported and have beaten their EPS estimates. 78.2% have also beaten their revenue estimates.

Jeff Buchbinder is the chief equity strategist of LPL Financial. He said that AI-driven expenditure will continue to drive S&P 500 earnings growth.

YEN INTERVENTION WORT

After Monday's brief surge, which saw the Japanese currency reach an intraday peak of 155.69, the yen has been stable at 157.22.

Satsuki Katayama, Japanese Finance Minister, spoke Monday against speculation in foreign exchange trading. Market participants are on high alert for any further intervention. Tokyo intervened on Thursday to support?its currency.

Abbas Keshvani is Asia Macro Strategist for RBC Capital Markets. He said that authorities may intervene again, if the dollar/yen keeps testing 160, which they have historically protected. In 2022, Tokyo fired three volleys in just a few short weeks.

He said: "We believe that the intervention will only act as a cap on USD/JPY and not a catalyst to protracted yen strength."

The Australian dollar, in other currencies, eased by 0.06%, to $0.7163, ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate announcement later that day. A hike is widely anticipated.

In the meantime, the U.S. Dollar firmed up on a?safe haven demand.

A number of data, including the nonfarm payrolls report for April on Friday, could'move' Federal Reserve policy.

The U.S. economy is expected to have gained 62,000 jobs after March's 178,000-strong gain. However, problems with seasonal adjustments create much uncertainty.

The markets currently expect that the Fed will leave its interest rate policy on hold for this year due to the inflationary pressures from the global energy crisis.

Spot gold, meanwhile, rose 0.2%, to $4,529.19 per ounce. This is well within the ranges of recent trading. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)

(source: Reuters)