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As US-Iran talks fail, oil prices soar and the dollar rises. Stocks also fall.
The dollar rose, stocks and bonds fell and oil prices surged as the U.S. imposed a blockade against?Iranian ships after the weekend's?peace negotiations collapsed. The move, aimed at putting pressure on Tehran, leaves a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end is in sight to the choke on Middle East energy exports. The?U.S. Brent crude futures are up 7.3% to $102 per barrel, a gain of over 40% since the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to the war. S&P futures fell 0.7% during the Asia Day and European?futures dropped 1.4%. U.S. Treasuries, bonds and other assets in Asia fell, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield reaching a 29-year record of 2.49%. However, the moves were modest, and most assets returned to where they stood before last week's truce. Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said that the market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flow of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. The key question remains whether the U.S. will renew its strikes against Iran. This could raise the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact that would last beyond the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisers are considering limited strikes against Iran. However, there have been no reports of any attacks on Asia Day. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may continue to be high until the November midterm elections. DOLLAR HIGHER INFLATION LOOMS The euro dropped about 0.3% in the foreign exchange market to $1.1687, and currencies that are more risky such as the Australian Dollar fell a bit further. Benchmarks for equity from Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, and Sydney have fallen by?around 1 percent. Russel Chesler is the head of VanEck's capital markets and investments in Sydney. He said that "the market does not believe Trump will strike more military assets, or take over Strait of Hormuz." He added that he was increasingly concerned about inflation as the oil shock continued. He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, the oil flow will be slow. We'll be stuck with high price for a while. Investors are bracing themselves for central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England to raise rates. This is a dramatic reversal of their pre-war predictions that they would cut interest rates or take a long pause. In Japan, traders are unsure about the outlook. They expect the rates to continue rising over the next few years but are hesitant on a possible hike in this month's market volatility. Hungarian forint soared to multi-year highs against the euro and dollar in 'emerging markets' after Hungary's nationalist veteran leader Viktor Orban was ousted by a centre-right upstart coalition. This will likely pave the path for EU funding to be directed to Hungary and Ukraine.
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Gold falls as inflation concerns linger over failed US-Iran negotiations
Gold?prices fell to a low of a week on Monday due to a?stronger?dollar. Meanwhile, a rise in oil prices after the failed U.S. Iran peace talks fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations that Federal Reserve rates would be cut this year. As of 0445 GMT spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,716.70 an ounce. This is its lowest level since the 7th of April. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4 738.90. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel as the dollar gained 0.4%. The U.S. Navy was preparing a blockade of Strait of Hormuz to restrict Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. failed to reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have responded by stating that any military vessels approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and treated 'harshly and firmly. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "Ceasefire optimism?has unraveled following the failures of the peace talks and the subsequent push higher by dollar and oil has put gold back on the front foot again." Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February, spot gold has dropped more than 11%. Gold's appeal is typically boosted by inflation and geopolitical risk, but high interest rates are a deterrent to the metal. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive greenback-priced gold is for holders of other currencies. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil price reaches $100 again, the focus quickly shifts to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what 'undermines gold's performance. The traders now see little hope of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary easing. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu) (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu.
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As US-Iran talks fail, oil prices soar and the dollar rises. Stocks also fall.
The dollar rose, stocks and bonds fell in Asia as earnings season in the U.S. began later that day. The U.S. action, which is aimed at exerting pressure on Tehran leaves a fragile truce hanging in the air and there's no end to the chokehold on Middle East oil exports in sight - although the mood in trading floors leans towards hope for a solution. Brent crude futures rose 7.3% to $102 per barrel. S&P futures were down by 0.7% in the morning of Asia and European futures dropped 1.3%. U.S. Treasuries, bonds and other assets in Asia fell, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield reaching a 29-year record of 2.49%. However, the moves were modest, and most assets returned to where they stood before last week's truce. Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said that the market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. "The key question that remains is whether the U.S. will renew strikes against Iran. This could raise the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which could have an even longer lasting impact than the duration of the war." The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors were considering limited strikes against Iran, although there was no immediate report of an attack in Asia Day. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may continue to be high until the November midterm elections. DOLLAR HIGHER The euro dropped about 0.3%, to $1.1687. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar also slipped. MSCI's broadest Asian share index outside Japan dropped 1%. The market does not believe that Trump will strike any more military assets or seize the Strait of Hormuz, said Russel C. Chesler of VanEck's Sydney office. He added that inflation was a growing concern, and would only increase the longer oil prices remained high. He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the oil flow will be "pretty slow" and we would be stuck with high price for a while. Investors are bracing themselves for central banks to raise rates, a dramatic reversal of their pre-war predictions that they would cut rates or take a long pause. Hungarian forint surged to multi-year highs against the dollar and the euro in emerging markets after Hungary's veteran nationalism leader Viktor Orban was ousted from power by a centre-right coalition on Sunday. The election result will likely pave the road for European Union funding in Hungary and Ukraine.
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Iron ore rises after six-day decline
Iron ore futures edged higher on Monday, after a six-session decline to a one month low. By 0258 GMT, the most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commmodity Exchange (DCE) had risen?0.4% to $757 yuan ($110.79). The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.12% to $103.6 per ton. Steelhome data shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports decreased by 0.16% in a week, according to the latest figures. According to Mysteel, the price of hot metals is'supported' by continued portside destocking. Mysteel data showed that iron ore imports at 47 Chinese ports fell by 536.100 tons due to disruptions in Australian supplies. Imports are expected improve this week, as supply disruptions have eased. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel on Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. This could limit Iranian oil exports after Washington and Tehran failed in their efforts to end the conflict. As shipping costs increase, it is expected that rising oil prices will support iron ore prices. The Brazilian mining company Vale announced on Friday that it will start building a waste rock and tailings processing plant for the state of Minas Gerais in the southeast this year. The plant will be able to produce 2 million tons per year of iron ore and is expected to start operations in the next few months. It's part of a company goal to reuse discarded raw materials. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have gained?ground on the DCE. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coils rose 0.15% and stainless steel increased 1.04%. ($1 = 6.8327 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Gold drops on stronger dollar and fading Fed rate-cut hope
Gold prices dropped to a one-week-low on Monday, despite a stronger dollar. A surge in oil prices following the failure of U.S. Iran peace talks fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations that Federal Reserve rates would be cut this year. As of 0222 GMT spot gold was down 0.6% to $4,718.98 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since the 7th of April earlier in session. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4742. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel as the U.S. Navy prepared to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which could limit Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. failed to reach an agreement to end the conflict with Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with a stern warning that any military vessel approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and dealt with harshly and decisively. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that the ceasefire optimism had been shattered by the failure of peace talks. The dollar and oil prices have risen as a result, and gold has fallen back on its heels. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on 'February 28th,' spot gold has dropped by more than 11%. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil prices return above $100, attention will quickly turn to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what's undermining the gold's performance." The traders now see little chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary ease. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. Gold's appeal is usually boosted by inflation, but high interest rates can make it less attractive. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive gold is for holders of other currencies. Silver spot fell by 2.2%, to $74.23 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5%, to $2,034.95, and palladium rose 1%, to $1,535.77.
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Aluminum demand surges after US-Iran peace talks collapse
Aluminium prices range-bound Monday as investors weighed renewed concerns about inflation and a global economic recession after the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks against lingering'supply jitters. As of 0222 GMT, the most traded aluminium 'contract' on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.24% to 24,565 Yuan ($3,594.74) a metric tonne. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.2% to $3.505.5 per ton. U.S. president Donald Trump announced 'on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will start blockingading Strait of Hormuz after marathon talks failed to reach an agreement to end the war. This could jeopardize a fragile 2-week ceasefire. Analysts said that the failed peace talks had a negative impact on the market, because they highlighted a prolonged drag on economic growth in general, which could 'dampen appetite for metals used in industrial applications. First Futures analysts said that the impact is more sentimental at the moment, as there has been no further reduction in production in the Gulf. Last month, the prolonged conflict in the Middle East forced some local aluminium smelters?to reduce their output. They also disrupted Gulf supplies by closing the Strait of Hormuz. A stronger dollar also affected the base metals sector, as commodities priced in dollars were less affordable to investors using other currencies. Shanghai copper rose 0.51% due to falling stocks. Nickel was little affected, while lead, tin, and zinc all declined. Copper fell?0.72% among other?LME-metals, while nickel fell 0.21% and lead dropped 0.39%. Tin also declined 2.3% and zinc slipped 0.6%.
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Oil tankers avoid Hormuz in advance of US blockade
Shipping data shows that oil tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz in anticipation of a U.S. blockade on Monday, following the failure of?peace negotiations between the U.S. The President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major step after the marathon talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce a peace agreement, putting a fragile ceasefire of two weeks in danger. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin to implement the blockade on all maritime traffic?entering or exiting Iranian port at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. In a press release on X, it stated that the ban would "be enforced impartially" against all vessels of any nation?entering and departing Iranian coastal areas and ports including all Iranian port on the Arabian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. It said that U.S. forces will not hinder the freedom of navigation of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian port and the Iranian ports. Additionally, additional information will be given to commercial mariners via a formal notification prior to the start of the blockade. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards warned on Sunday against any military vessel that attempted to approach the Strait of Hormuz. They said this would be considered as a breach of the ceasefire, and they will be dealt with harshly. Data from LSEG & Kpler shows that on Sunday, Pakistani flagged tankers Shalamar & Khairpur entered Gulf. Data showed that the Aframax tanker Shalamar will be heading to the United Arab Emirates to load Das crude, while the?Panamax sized Khairpur will be heading to Kuwait to fill refined products. Pakistan National Shipping (which manages Shalamar) did not respond immediately to a comment request outside office hours. Mombasa B (flagged Liberia) is a?very large oil carrier (VLCC), which transited also the strait on Sunday. The data shows that the VLCC Agios Fanourios I flying the flag of Malta, which attempted to cross the strait to enter the Gulf on Sunday in order to load Iraqi crude oil from Basra for Vietnam, turned around and is now anchoring near the Gulf?of Oman. The tanker is heading to Iraq. Eastern Mediterranean Maritime which manages Agios Fanourios 1, and CMB.TECH NV who is the manager of the Mombasa B did not'respond to any requests for comments outside of office hours. Shipping data revealed that despite the deadlock, three supertankers, fully loaded with oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. These vessels appeared to be among the first to leave the Gulf after the ceasefire agreement was reached last week. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Viva Energy, Australia's largest energy company, faces an extra $17.5 million in costs after regulatory review
After a review by the Australian corporate regulator, Viva Energy has revised its testing of the value of its retail fuel and convenience sites for impairment. This will result in an additional A$25m ($17.55m) in impairment charges on 2025 accounts. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission questioned the fuel retailer’s previous approach to?grouping certain sites into a larger Shell Card cash-generating units, arguing that?individual outlets? should be assessed individually so their recoverable value could?be determined. The regulator said that Viva had adopted the revised method in its financial statements for its year-end?December 2025 and increased the total impairment charges on the convenience?retail networks to?A$558.8 millions. The company didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The additional charge is only 4.5% of the total write down, but it signals a tightening of regulatory scrutiny on accounting decisions and highlights the pressures that Viva faces in valuing its retail network. ASIC stated that Australian accounting regulations'requires companies to test assets for impairment individually whenever possible and only use broader cash-generating units when standalone valuations are not possible. In its report for 2025,?Viva stated that applying the revised method retrospectively 'wouldn't have materially impacted prior-periods results. The company's shares rose as much as 7.2% on Monday to a new 14-month high, helped by higher oil prices and an increase of 3.8% in the energy sub-index.
Morning bid Europe-Oil surges after US blockade on Iran
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Oil futures rose?back to $100 in Asia on Monday morning, while the dollar fell and stocks were down as U.S. - Iran talks failed without any progress towards a lasting peace.
The U.S. announced a blocking of Iranian ports as a way to increase pressure on Tehran and the countries that receive Iranian crude, mostly China.
Experts?say that the blockade is an act?of war that requires a commitment open-ended?of significant numbers of warships. If Iranian exports are removed, the global supply could be cut by up to 2,000,000 barrels per day.
Bonds were also sold due to concerns about inflation.
After Viktor Orban's defeat in Sunday's election, the forint of Hungary soared after the result. This paved the way for European Union funds to be sent to Hungary and possibly Ukraine.
The other reactions to the collapse of U.S. - Iran?talks in the 'Asia session, however, were not extreme. Most asset prices returned to their previous levels around the middle of last weekend, just before the 'U.S. Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire.
The markets will be left trading headlines as the U.S. Earnings Season begins in earnest, with Goldman Sachs reporting before the opening of the market.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
- Hungarian election result
Goldman Sachs: U.S. earnings
(source: Reuters)