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Concerns about consumer demand lower LIVESTOCK CME cattle futures
Chicago Mercantile Exchange?cattle futures and feeder cattle?ticked down on Friday due to a technical setback.?As a result, 'Americans' concerns about their ability to afford beef grew. Gas prices are high and consumer sentiment is gloomy, raising fears that Americans will reduce their beef purchases. Beef is the most expensive protein in grocery stores. Dan Basse is the president of 'AgResource' Company. He said that they are 'looking at consumers' disposable income and wondering if they will 'pay higher beef prices'. Oil futures dropped more than 2% Friday, marking their steepest weekly decline since early April. Traders awaited news that the U.S.?Israel and Iran reached an agreement on a truce. Live cattle for August fell by 1.95 cents, to 239,05 cents a pound. August feeder cattle futures dropped 4.60 cents at 348.425 per pound. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Friday that the value of 'boxed beef' had dropped by 26 cents, to $392.06 a hundredweight. Select?cuts, however, fell by $2.26, to $382.32 a hundredweight. According to HedgersEdge.com, the Packers lost about $266.90 per head of cattle they slaughtered last Thursday. This is an improvement from the previous week. CME's lean-hog market saw a drop of 2.625 cents to 99.50 cents for each pound. According to USDA, the wholesale price of pork cutout has risen 91 cents per cwt to $100.02. Reporting by Heather Schlitz, Editing by Daniel Wallis
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IMF, World Bank and others warn that Middle East war strains energy supplies
The heads of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization warned on Friday that the war in the Middle East is straining the global energy supply and affecting vulnerable economies the most. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has disrupted the trade, rattled the financial markets, and raised 'concerns about global energy supply, especially through Strait of Hormuz. This is a major route for oil and natural gas shipments. Global?institutions stated that the world's economy was resilient. However, the conflict disproportionately affected poorer countries by increasing fuel and fertilizer prices, increasing uncertainty, and creating job risks. In a joint press release, the heads of these groups met Thursday to discuss the economic impact of war. U.S. president Donald Trump said that he will decide on Friday whether to extend the ceasefire with Iran. This would include?opening up the waterway? and dismantling Tehran’s nuclear weapons capability. The institutions warned that if shipping 'flows' do not return to normal, the rapid depletion in global oil stocks ahead of the peak summer 'oil demand - in the Northern Hemisphere - would pose a heightened risk for fuel security and market conditions.
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USITC says Russian palladium does not harm America cos, ends probe
The?U.S. has stated that Russian unwrought Palladium, which is used to reduce emissions from gasoline vehicles, doesn't?harm American companies. The International Trade Commission announced a decision?on Friday to end Washington's antidumping investigation. Last week, the U.S. Department of Commerce decided on a separate countervailing duty of 109.1%. Sibanye Stillwater, which produces in South Africa as well as the United States, and the United Steelworkers Union had asked Washington to consider imposing duties so that they could 'protect the long-term sustainability of U.S. supplies. The USITC has now concluded the investigation with its negative determination. USITC stated in a press release that its full report would be released on July 8th. "The U.S. industry is not materially harmed or threatened with a material injury by reason of the?imports from Russia of unwrought Palladium, which Commerce determined were sold at subsidized prices and below fair value in the United States," it said. Russian palladium exports to the U.S. increased from 23.8 tons a year ago - and 20.4 tons a year earlier - to 27.6 tonnes in 2024. Nornickel of Russia, the largest palladium producer in the world with a market share of about 40%, refused to comment on USITC's decision. As of Friday, palladium spot prices had fallen by?17% from the beginning of the year. They were currently at $1,355 an ounce. Reporting by Susan Heavey and Anastasia Lyrchikova, with additional reporting from Katharine Jackson and Ismail Shakil. Editing by Ismail Shakil & Chizu Nomiyama.
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Iran's nuclear negotiations: the strongest card Iran has is its highly enriched Uranium
Iran and the United States have been in talks to extend their ceasefire to begin negotiations over issues such as Tehran's nuclear programme, where Washington insists that?Iran cannot be able make a nuclear bomb. Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran in June. While a lot of its uranium-enrichment infrastructure was destroyed or badly damaged, it is believed that a significant amount of highly enriched nuclear uranium survived. This is the main concern of the United States. The biggest concern for the U.S. In a Friday post on social media, Trump stated that Iran had to agree that the enriched Uranium that was buried underground following earlier U.S. attacks be "unearthed", and destroyed with Iran and U.N. nuclear monitor. WHAT IS HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM? It is one of the two fissile elements, along with Plutonium, that can be used to make a nuclear weapon's core. While plutonium usually comes from the spent fuel in a nuclear reactor and requires a large, highly visible infrastructure to extract, uranium enrichment can be done using centrifuges with a smaller footprint. Two of Iran's known three enrichment facilities were in operation when Israel and?U.S. Two of the three Iranian enrichment sites that were known to have been operating when Israel and the?U.S. The one above ground was destroyed. When uranium reaches a purity of 20%, it is considered highly enriched. It is weapon-grade when the purity reaches around 90%. Some modern reactors use fuel that is enriched beyond 90%. According to reports, the fuel used in U.S. submarines is enriched above 90%. How much money does Iran have? Since the June attacks, Iran has failed to inform the U.N. Since the June attacks, Iran has not informed the?U.N. These are the amounts that Iran was estimated to have had when Israel dropped its first?bombs on June 13, - 440.9 kg enhanced to up to 60% 184.1 kg up to 20% enriched - 6,024.4 kg enrichment up to 5% -?2,391.1kg enriched up to 2% According to an IAEA yardstick the 60% stock is enough for 10 nuclear bombs if it's enriched. The 20% would suffice for one, and the 5% for 12. Uncertainty surrounds the amount that has survived. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that his agency believes that "a little more than 200kg" of the 60% is stored in a tunnel complex located in Isfahan, which appears to have been mostly unharmed by June's attacks. He said some was also stored at the Natanz Nuclear Site. WHY THE CONCERNS? The U.S. has focused its concern on the 60% of material, as it would be easier and quicker to make a nuclear bomb. Washington wants it gone. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons. It becomes exponentially easier as the level of enrichment increases. It is easier to go from unenriched uranium to 5% than to go from 60% to 90. Donald Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear agreement between Iran and major powers. This deal kept Tehran a great distance away from producing an atom-bomb. The U.S.'s withdrawal from the deal in 2018 led to its unraveling and Iran rapidly expanded its nuclear program. Iran was not allowed to enrich its oil beyond 3.7% under the 2015 agreement. It takes more steps, even at 90%, to create the core of a nuclear bomb. The uranium becomes gaseous when it is enriched. The uranium must be converted into metal to be used in weapons. CAN YOU MOVE THIS? Yes. Yes. The 2015 deal, and the previous one that preceded it, saw Iran's uranium stocks enriched up to 20 percent diluted or converted into reactor fuel plates before being shipped out of the country. Transporting nuclear material, such as highly enriched?uranium, internationally is a delicate but routine procedure. Grossi, when asked by PBS about the 60% material in March, said: "It can be moved with some caution but?it requires some precaution." IS IRAN READY TO GIVE IT UP? Two senior Iranian sources reported last week that Iran's supreme leadership has given a directive not to send the 60% material abroad. Iranian sources claim that Tehran could agree to send the half to a third-country, in exchange for uranium that is enriched up to 5%, and diluted the other half within Iran. (Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi;;Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
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Trump wants to increase the N American content of autos to 82% with half coming from US
Four people familiar with U.S. negotiating positions said that the Trump administration wanted to increase the'regional content' in North American built vehicles to 82% in order to qualify for preferential trade treatment under the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement. In the expansive demand that was unveiled at the Mexico City negotiations this week between the United States and Mexico, no parts content from Canada is included in the totals. The sources claim that Canada was not present at the Mexico City negotiations. If accepted, the shift would be a major departure from the USMCA which currently requires that 40% of "core parts" of North American passenger cars be produced in high-wage countries, such as the U.S. and Canada. This threshold has been lowered to 45% in the case of pickup trucks. In total, USMCA requires that vehicles made in North America have a regional content of 75%. The U.S.'s demand and the lack of accommodation to Canada is consistent with the?Trump Administration officials' questioning about why Canada exports vehicles and auto parts and their desire to move that production to the U.S. Officials from the auto industry said there was a good chance that U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer will seek to negotiate new rules of origin in Mexico, and then present these to Canada with a "take it or leave it" proposition. Greer was evasive when asked if USMCA will continue to be a trilateral agreement or be split into bilateral agreements. First reported on Thursday,?U.S. Negotiators are pursuing an automotive content requirement specific to the U.S. Trade officials briefed lobbyists in the automotive industry on the proposal of 82% regional content. However, it was unclear how this figure or?the 50 U.S. dollar value requirement would be calculated. USMCA will replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020. It will maintain a duty-free zone that supports nearly $1.6 trillion of annual trilateral trade. Last year, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs and 50% duties on Canadian and Mexican vehicle and component imports, and steel, aluminum, and copper from those countries. Greer said that he plans to maintain a certain level of tariffs in the revised "trade pact" on some key Mexican and Canadian products. The two partners could get some preferential tariff rates. At present, cars from Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and Britain are imported at lower tariff rates than vehicles from Canada or Mexico. David Lawder, Emily Green and Nora Eckert reported from Mexico City; David Shepardson in Washington; and Kalea Hall was in Detroit. David Lawder wrote the article; Aurora Ellis edited it.
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Codelco's Q1 profits nearly quadruple on the strength of copper prices, despite a drop in output
Due to the strong price of red metal, Chile's Codelco - one of the world's largest producers of copper - posted an $825 million pretax profit for the first quarter of 2026. This is nearly four times the $213 reported during the same period in 2017. Codelco reported that its copper production in the period January-March was 272,000 metric tonnes, an 8% drop from the same quarter last year. Ruben Alvarado, CEO of the company, said that it benefited from the higher prices on global markets for products like copper and molybdenum. Copper is used in a wide range of industrial processes including construction and electrification. The output was weak, however, in the major mines El Teniente, Chuquicamata and in smaller divisions Ministro Hales Gabriela Mistral, and Andina. El Teniente's production fell by 26% after the fatal mine collapse last year. Chuquicamata saw a drop of 18% in ore availability. Alvarado stated in a statement that "these?results reflected an operationally challenging quarter in which the company had to deal with production constraints, lower grades of ore and higher costs." "Our focus is strengthening operational 'continuity', safety, cost-control, and ensuring sustainable excess generation for the Chilean State." Codelco did not make any changes to its output forecast for 2026, which is 1.33 to 1.36 millions tons.
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Rio Tinto invests $1.5 billion in a low-carbon smelter project in Quebec
Rio Tinto announced on Friday that it had commissioned its $1.5 billion low carbon aluminium smelter?in Canada's?province?of?Quebec. The?Anglo Australian mining giant expects to complete the start-up by the end this year with all 96 pots in Complexe Arvida operating. The plant will be able to produce 220,000 metric tons of primary aluminum annually using the low-carbon smelting technology AP60. The AP60 expansion is a step towards the carbon-free aluminum electrolysis technology that ELYSIS has developed in partnership with Alcoa. Separately, on Friday, Melanie Joly, Canada’s Minister of Industry?and Minister responsible for Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions announced a C$100 Million ($72.55 Million) investment in ELYSIS Technology Deployment Project. The Canadian government said in a statement that "With rising tariffs, and continued trade uncertainty, the Government of Canada is taking decisive actions to protect Canadian workers and reinforce domestic supply chains, and build a stronger and more resilient economy." Rio Tinto?said that combining the AP60 with hydropower in its Canada operations 'would generate one-sixth the greenhouse?gas emission per tonne aluminium compared to industry average. The Arvida smelter ?is located in the ?Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, ?which is responsible for nearly half of Rio's global aluminium production. ($1 = 1.3784 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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Wall Street regulators propose to scrap Biden's climate rule
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced a proposal?on?Friday to eliminate dormant regulations that were adopted by former 'President Joe Biden, which?requires companies to disclose their climate-related spending and risks. This is part of the government-wide retrenchment in climate policy following President Donald Trump's return to office last summer. The rule was adopted in 2024, but it has not yet taken effect because of a legal battle from conservative states and industrial lobbies. It was meant to'respond to mounting investor demands for consistent information on the building up of climate-related risks in the financial system, and the costs that companies will incur in adapting to and responding to the "climate crisis". Paul Atkins, SEC chairperson, said in a statement Friday that the agency should only require disclosures when they are material to investors. They shouldn't dictate corporate behavior. SEC officials said that the agency also believed that the rule was now outside of?its authority, could have a substantial impact on companies and discourage capital formation. Benjamin Schiffrin said in a statement that the SEC was "attacking investors" with this decision. Schiffrin is the head of securities policy for Better Markets which advocates for more policing of Wall Street. Investors are concerned about the risks that public companies face, and climate-related risks are no exception. Before the SEC makes a final decision, it will give the public two months to comment on and review the proposal. Reporting by Douglas Gillison, Washington; editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Brent crude set to record a record month
Investors piled into a long-running Gulf conflict, which has already seen oil prices rise to a record level. This will lead to a surge in inflation and a risk of recession for much of the world.
Pakistan said it was preparing "meaningful discussions" to end the conflict over Iran within the next few days. This is despite the fact that Tehran has accused Washington of preparing a land attack as the U.S. Military builds up its forces in the area.
Financial Times, late Sunday, quoted Donald Trump as saying that the U.S. might seize Kharg Island, where Iran exports most of its oil from the Persian Gulf. But also, a ceasefire may come soon.
Yemen's Houthis, who are also Iran-aligned, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict.
"Iran has little incentive to give up its control of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to disrupt the global energy and food market, as well as the capability to maintain missile and drone capabilities, which is why the U.S. escalates," said Madison Cartwright?, senior geo-economics analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
We expect the conflict to last at least until June. The risk is that it could extend into a longer war.
Prices for plastic, aluminium, fertilizer, oil, gas and plastic have all risen due to the clampdown in the Strait, as well as fuel for planes, ships and other transportation. All prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals are set to increase.
This is bad news for Asia as much of that region depends on Middle East energy. Japan's Nikkei lost another 3.4%, taking the total losses in March to almost 13%.
South Korea's stock market fell 3.0% Monday, while Chinese blue-chips lost 0.2%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell?1.3%.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures have pared some of their losses, making it a little easier. EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both dropped 0.7% in Europe while FTSE Futures? dropped 0.4%.
Brent crude rose by 2.0% to $114.90 per barrel. This brings its gains for the month up to 59%, and surpasses the surge that followed Iraq's attack on Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 1.8% to $101,39, a 51% increase in a month.
Bruce Kasman warned that the longer the Strait remains shut, the more the buffer supply will be reduced, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, gas, and other commodities.
The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and constraints on energy consumption by industrial consumers.
As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus.
Investors have revised up their expectations for interest rates almost everywhere due to the inflationary threat. The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year. This compares with 50 basis point cuts just a month earlier.
John Williams, the influential chief of the New York Fed and Fed chair, will also be speaking at an event on Monday.
This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give an update on the state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in the month of March. Unemployment remains at 4.4%.
The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday showing that annual inflation jumped to 2.7% from 1.9% in March, but core prices are expected to be stable.
Energy shocks, coupled with increased borrowing costs, and a need to increase defence spending have slammed sovereign bond markets.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 44 basis points this month, to 4.407%. Two-year yields also rose 50 basis points.
The U.S. Dollar is the most liquid currency in the world. The?U.S. The?U.S.
The dollar dropped 0.3% to 159.74 Japanese yen, despite warnings from the Japanese authorities. The dollar has dropped 0.3% to 159.74 yen after warnings of possible intervention from the Japanese authorities.
The euro was at $1.1513. This is not too far from the March low of $1.1409.
Gold was flat on commodity markets at $4,493 per ounce, despite the fact that it has received little support from investors as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Muralikumar Aantharaman, Thomas Derpinghaus and Wayne Cole)
(source: Reuters)