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Oil resumes its climb after fragile relief rally as shares are jittery

Oil prices rose and stocks were on tenterhooks on Tuesday, as investors worried about the Middle East war were not satisfied with President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the bombing Iran's electricity grid.

U.S. Treasury Yields increased and the dollar regained ground in a retracement of a relief rally that swept the markets overnight, after Trump extended his Saturday ultimatum to Iran for it to reopen Strait of Hormuz by 48 hours. Trump cited "productive" discussions Tehran.

There was a lot of uncertainty as the world continued to deal with an energy crisis, while Iran denied having engaged in any negotiations with the U.S.

Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the underlying situation was still fragile or flammable.

It doesn't appear that all of the parties are on the same page... Trump may talk all he wants, but the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and will remain closed until the Iranians are?on the exact same page. That's the problem."

The European markets were off to a sombre start. EUROSTOXX futures fell 1%, while FTSE Futures dropped 0.47%. S&P 500 Futures dropped 0.56%, and Nasdaq Futures lost 6%.

Asia shares, meanwhile, edged up in a rally to catch up with global counterparts. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1.3% while Tokyo's Nikkei gained?0.95%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.6%.

The Israeli military reported that Iran launched waves of missiles towards Israel. Semafor, citing an?official from the U.S., reported that the U.S. would continue to?strike Iran with a pause only for attacks on Tehran's oil sites.

Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, despite the ongoing war and the fact that shipments of liquefied gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz are still restricted.

Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $103.58 per barrel, reversing a 10% decline from the previous session. U.S. crude climbed 4.12% to $81.76 per barrel.

Thomas Mathews is the head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics. He said that even though it will be over soon, energy prices could remain higher and bond and equity prices lower for longer.

DOLLAR PARES LOSES, YIELDS RISE

U.S. Treasury Yields climbed on Tuesday, after a steep fall overnight. Little clarity about a possible end to the conflict has left traders pricing in an increasingly hawkish outlook for global interest rates.

In Asia, the two-year yield increased by 7 basis points to 3.9015 percent while the benchmark 10-year rate was up over 4 basis points to 4.3797 percent.

Investors have abandoned hope of further monetary ease globally in favor of pricing in rate increases across the majority developed nations.

Futures indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates at current levels this year. The Bank of England and European Central Bank, however, are expected to increase rates.

Kit Juckes is the head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale. He said: "Unless the Strait of Hormuz (is reopened) very quickly, it's more likely than not that we will see higher interest rates and a significant increase in oil importer's costs in the next few weeks."

The U.S. Dollar recovered from its Monday fall, pushing the Euro down by 0.24%, to $1.1587. Sterling fell 0.5%, to $1.3389.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar each fell by more than 0.5%.

Spot gold fell 1.3% to $4,350.51 per ounce on expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)

(source: Reuters)