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Ticking timebomb MORNING BID AMERICAS

By Mike Dolan

March 23rd -

Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets.

Stocks and bonds have plummeted around the globe as the Middle East conflict intensifies. President Trump's deadline of 48 hours for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires on Monday. Trump has threatened to "obliterate' Iran's main?power plants, if Tehran doesn't comply with the demand. Iran said it would respond by attacking energy and water plants?across Gulf. The war is now in its fourth week and there are no signs of a de-escalation. The opposite is true.

Below, I will go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid Podcast, where I talk about today's global market selloff and the strange disappearance of investor's usual hiding places.

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TICKING TIMEBOM The Brent crude benchmark reached $113 per barrel in the morning on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate hit $100 before falling back. Gas prices in the United States are on their way to topping $4 per gallon. The Nikkei, the major stock index in Asia, fell 3.5% on Monday. This brings its March losses to over 12%. South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 6% as a fourth trading restriction was implemented this month. MSCI's global equity index has fallen to its lowest level since November 2025. STOXX 600 fell more than 2% on Monday, hitting a 4-month low. Wall Street futures had fallen before the bell. Government bonds are also being hit hard, which is extending the selloff from last week. The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to the highest level in nine months. Fed futures are now predicting a 75% probability of a rate increase by the end of the year.

Money markets are now seeing three rate increases from the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England, for the remainder of the year. Gold continues to fall, and bonds are no longer a good option. Many people will turn to cash as their only choice. The dollar gained against a basket major currencies. The Japanese government has signalled that it is prepared to intervene in order to combat foreign exchange volatility, as the yen edges closer to $160. Despite recent hawkish comments from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, the embattled currency failed to show a recovery. In the energy sector, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing more oil stockpiled in response to the increasing threats and attacks from the Middle East. Fatih Bilal, the IEA's chief, said that these releases would happen "if needed". He added that the only solution was to open Hormuz.

Chart of the Day Gold fell more than 8% Monday, hitting its lowest level in the year. Last week it had suffered its largest weekly loss for 43 years. The escalating Middle East war fueled speculation about higher global interest rates in order to tamp down the inflationary impact of an energy price spike.

Gold is not performing as well as it did last year as an inflation and war hedge. Investors are looking to sell their best-performing assets.

Watch today's events

Consumer confidence in the EU at 11:00 AM EDT

Ursula von der Leyen, EU's Ursula von der Leyen, begins a three-day trip to Australia

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(source: Reuters)