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Gold falls as inflation concerns linger over failed US-Iran negotiations
Gold prices fell to a near-week-low on Monday due to a stronger 'dollar. As of 0620 GMT spot gold was down 0.4% to $4,726.64 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since April 7 earlier that day, $4,643. U.S. gold futures for delivery in June fell by 0.8% to $4 748.70. After the U.S. failed to reach an agreement with Iran to end the conflict, the dollar gained 0.3% and oil prices rose above $100 per barrel. The U.S. Navy was preparing a blockade of Strait of Hormuz to restrict Iranian oil shipments. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with a stern warning that any military vessel approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and "dealt" with harshly. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that the optimism surrounding the ceasefire has been shattered by the failure of peace talks. The dollar and oil have risen as a result, putting gold back on the defensive. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began in February, spot gold has dropped more than 11%. Gold's appeal is typically boosted by inflation and geopolitical risk, but high interest rates are a drag on the metal. The greenback price of bullion is also more expensive when the dollar is stronger. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil prices rise above $100, the focus quickly shifts to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what 'undermines gold's performance. The traders now see little hope of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary easing. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu) (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu.
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European chemical companies will report falling earnings in Q1 due to the Iran War.
European chemical companies will likely report lower first-quarter earnings, which will shed light on the?depth of the impact the Middle East war has had on an industry that is viewed as being one of the most vulnerable to it. The 'U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has caused disruptions in the 'fuel and feedstock market, which have pushed up prices for the energy-intensive chemical sector. VCI, the German chemicals association, said that the chemical industry is more affected than other industries by the dramatic rise in energy and raw materials costs because it relies primarily on oil and natural gas as feedstocks. The war-driven rise in energy prices exacerbated the already weak conditions that were seen at the beginning of 2026. This sector has been struggling for years due to?subdued demands, high energy costs and supply-chain disruptions, as well as a slowing economy. Companies have increased prices to protect margins. According to a note by the brokerage, the finance chief for Germany's BASF stated at a JPMorgan Chemicals Conference in March that the company expected to see cost inflation more than offset in the second quarter of the year. Brenntag's Chief Financial Officer said, meanwhile, that customers have accepted price increases. Martin Gornig, Research Director at the German Institute for Economic Research, says that while rising energy costs affect everyone, they have been particularly hard on Germany and other European nations. Mwb Research stated in a recent report that Asian competitors retain an edge due to their lower structural cost bases. This helps them buffer the effects of weaker demand. Anna Wolf, an industry expert at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Germany, said that "higher prices further weaken competitiveness of European producers against Chinese suppliers." VCI reported that feedback from companies has been?mixed'. Concerns over supply shortages are driving demand in certain segments while higher prices dampen?purchase activity for others. Analysts warn that gains could be fragile, and do not expect to see a meaningful recovery in earnings based solely on pricing. Wolf said that rising uncertainty and volatile prices could further weaken demand. The recent price increases were unexpectedly steep, given the generally low demand and sluggish confidence in business. The two-week ceasefire has not brought immediate relief to the energy markets. Although it has reduced the immediate pressure, costs remain high and volatility is elevated. VCI stated that "even if the energy crisis is temporarily resolved, it is unlikely to see a rapid return to normal prices." Sebastian Bray, Berenberg analyst, said that a reversal of chemical prices is possible in a scenario where there's lowered oil prices and improved feedstock availability. Anastasiia Kozolova in Gdansk and Amir Orusov, with editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak.
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As US-Iran talks fail, oil prices soar and the dollar rises. Stocks also fall.
The dollar rose, stocks and bonds fell and oil prices surged as the U.S. imposed a blockade against?Iranian ships after the weekend's?peace negotiations collapsed. The move, aimed at putting pressure on Tehran, leaves a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end is in sight to the choke on Middle East energy exports. The?U.S. Brent crude futures are up 7.3% to $102 per barrel, a gain of over 40% since the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to the war. S&P futures fell 0.7% during the Asia Day and European?futures dropped 1.4%. U.S. Treasuries, bonds and other assets in Asia fell, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield reaching a 29-year record of 2.49%. However, the moves were modest, and most assets returned to where they stood before last week's truce. Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said that the market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flow of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. The key question remains whether the U.S. will renew its strikes against Iran. This could raise the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact that would last beyond the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisers are considering limited strikes against Iran. However, there have been no reports of any attacks on Asia Day. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may continue to be high until the November midterm elections. DOLLAR HIGHER INFLATION LOOMS The euro dropped about 0.3% in the foreign exchange market to $1.1687, and currencies that are more risky such as the Australian Dollar fell a bit further. Benchmarks for equity from Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, and Sydney have fallen by?around 1 percent. Russel Chesler is the head of VanEck's capital markets and investments in Sydney. He said that "the market does not believe Trump will strike more military assets, or take over Strait of Hormuz." He added that he was increasingly concerned about inflation as the oil shock continued. He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, the oil flow will be slow. We'll be stuck with high price for a while. Investors are bracing themselves for central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England to raise rates. This is a dramatic reversal of their pre-war predictions that they would cut interest rates or take a long pause. In Japan, traders are unsure about the outlook. They expect the rates to continue rising over the next few years but are hesitant on a possible hike in this month's market volatility. Hungarian forint soared to multi-year highs against the euro and dollar in 'emerging markets' after Hungary's nationalist veteran leader Viktor Orban was ousted by a centre-right upstart coalition. This will likely pave the path for EU funding to be directed to Hungary and Ukraine.
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Gold falls as inflation concerns linger over failed US-Iran negotiations
Gold?prices fell to a low of a week on Monday due to a?stronger?dollar. Meanwhile, a rise in oil prices after the failed U.S. Iran peace talks fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations that Federal Reserve rates would be cut this year. As of 0445 GMT spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,716.70 an ounce. This is its lowest level since the 7th of April. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4 738.90. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel as the dollar gained 0.4%. The U.S. Navy was preparing a blockade of Strait of Hormuz to restrict Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. failed to reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have responded by stating that any military vessels approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and treated 'harshly and firmly. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "Ceasefire optimism?has unraveled following the failures of the peace talks and the subsequent push higher by dollar and oil has put gold back on the front foot again." Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February, spot gold has dropped more than 11%. Gold's appeal is typically boosted by inflation and geopolitical risk, but high interest rates are a deterrent to the metal. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive greenback-priced gold is for holders of other currencies. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil price reaches $100 again, the focus quickly shifts to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what 'undermines gold's performance. The traders now see little hope of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary easing. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu) (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu.
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Morning bid Europe-Oil surges after US blockade on Iran
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Oil futures rose?back to $100 in Asia on Monday morning, while the dollar fell and stocks were down as U.S. - Iran talks failed without any progress towards a lasting peace. The U.S. announced a blocking of Iranian ports as a way to increase pressure on Tehran and the countries that receive Iranian crude, mostly China. Experts?say that the blockade is an act?of war that requires a commitment open-ended?of significant numbers of warships. If Iranian exports are removed, the global supply could be cut by up to 2,000,000 barrels per day. Bonds were also sold due to concerns about inflation. After Viktor Orban's defeat in Sunday's election, the forint of Hungary soared after the result. This paved the way for European Union funds to be sent to Hungary and possibly Ukraine. The other reactions to the collapse of U.S. - Iran?talks in the 'Asia session, however, were not extreme. Most asset prices returned to their previous levels around the middle of last weekend, just before the 'U.S. Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire. The markets will be left trading headlines as the U.S. Earnings Season begins in earnest, with Goldman Sachs reporting before the opening of the market. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - Hungarian election result Goldman Sachs: U.S. earnings
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As US-Iran talks fail, oil prices soar and the dollar rises. Stocks also fall.
The dollar rose, stocks and bonds fell in Asia as earnings season in the U.S. began later that day. The U.S. action, which is aimed at exerting pressure on Tehran leaves a fragile truce hanging in the air and there's no end to the chokehold on Middle East oil exports in sight - although the mood in trading floors leans towards hope for a solution. Brent crude futures rose 7.3% to $102 per barrel. S&P futures were down by 0.7% in the morning of Asia and European futures dropped 1.3%. U.S. Treasuries, bonds and other assets in Asia fell, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield reaching a 29-year record of 2.49%. However, the moves were modest, and most assets returned to where they stood before last week's truce. Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said that the market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. "The key question that remains is whether the U.S. will renew strikes against Iran. This could raise the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which could have an even longer lasting impact than the duration of the war." The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors were considering limited strikes against Iran, although there was no immediate report of an attack in Asia Day. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may continue to be high until the November midterm elections. DOLLAR HIGHER The euro dropped about 0.3%, to $1.1687. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar also slipped. MSCI's broadest Asian share index outside Japan dropped 1%. The market does not believe that Trump will strike any more military assets or seize the Strait of Hormuz, said Russel C. Chesler of VanEck's Sydney office. He added that inflation was a growing concern, and would only increase the longer oil prices remained high. He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the oil flow will be "pretty slow" and we would be stuck with high price for a while. Investors are bracing themselves for central banks to raise rates, a dramatic reversal of their pre-war predictions that they would cut rates or take a long pause. Hungarian forint surged to multi-year highs against the dollar and the euro in emerging markets after Hungary's veteran nationalism leader Viktor Orban was ousted from power by a centre-right coalition on Sunday. The election result will likely pave the road for European Union funding in Hungary and Ukraine.
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Iron ore rises after six-day decline
Iron ore futures edged higher on Monday, after a six-session decline to a one month low. By 0258 GMT, the most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commmodity Exchange (DCE) had risen?0.4% to $757 yuan ($110.79). The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.12% to $103.6 per ton. Steelhome data shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports decreased by 0.16% in a week, according to the latest figures. According to Mysteel, the price of hot metals is'supported' by continued portside destocking. Mysteel data showed that iron ore imports at 47 Chinese ports fell by 536.100 tons due to disruptions in Australian supplies. Imports are expected improve this week, as supply disruptions have eased. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel on Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. This could limit Iranian oil exports after Washington and Tehran failed in their efforts to end the conflict. As shipping costs increase, it is expected that rising oil prices will support iron ore prices. The Brazilian mining company Vale announced on Friday that it will start building a waste rock and tailings processing plant for the state of Minas Gerais in the southeast this year. The plant will be able to produce 2 million tons per year of iron ore and is expected to start operations in the next few months. It's part of a company goal to reuse discarded raw materials. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have gained?ground on the DCE. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coils rose 0.15% and stainless steel increased 1.04%. ($1 = 6.8327 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Gold drops on stronger dollar and fading Fed rate-cut hope
Gold prices dropped to a one-week-low on Monday, despite a stronger dollar. A surge in oil prices following the failure of U.S. Iran peace talks fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations that Federal Reserve rates would be cut this year. As of 0222 GMT spot gold was down 0.6% to $4,718.98 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since the 7th of April earlier in session. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4742. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel as the U.S. Navy prepared to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which could limit Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. failed to reach an agreement to end the conflict with Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with a stern warning that any military vessel approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and dealt with harshly and decisively. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that the ceasefire optimism had been shattered by the failure of peace talks. The dollar and oil prices have risen as a result, and gold has fallen back on its heels. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on 'February 28th,' spot gold has dropped by more than 11%. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil prices return above $100, attention will quickly turn to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what's undermining the gold's performance." The traders now see little chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary ease. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. Gold's appeal is usually boosted by inflation, but high interest rates can make it less attractive. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive gold is for holders of other currencies. Silver spot fell by 2.2%, to $74.23 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5%, to $2,034.95, and palladium rose 1%, to $1,535.77.
Ticking timebomb MORNING BID AMERICAS
By Mike Dolan
March 23rd -
Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets.
Stocks and bonds have plummeted around the globe as the Middle East conflict intensifies. President Trump's deadline of 48 hours for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires on Monday. Trump has threatened to "obliterate' Iran's main?power plants, if Tehran doesn't comply with the demand. Iran said it would respond by attacking energy and water plants?across Gulf. The war is now in its fourth week and there are no signs of a de-escalation. The opposite is true.
Below, I will go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid Podcast, where I talk about today's global market selloff and the strange disappearance of investor's usual hiding places.
Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
TICKING TIMEBOM The Brent crude benchmark reached $113 per barrel in the morning on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate hit $100 before falling back. Gas prices in the United States are on their way to topping $4 per gallon. The Nikkei, the major stock index in Asia, fell 3.5% on Monday. This brings its March losses to over 12%. South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 6% as a fourth trading restriction was implemented this month. MSCI's global equity index has fallen to its lowest level since November 2025. STOXX 600 fell more than 2% on Monday, hitting a 4-month low. Wall Street futures had fallen before the bell. Government bonds are also being hit hard, which is extending the selloff from last week. The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to the highest level in nine months. Fed futures are now predicting a 75% probability of a rate increase by the end of the year.
Money markets are now seeing three rate increases from the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England, for the remainder of the year. Gold continues to fall, and bonds are no longer a good option. Many people will turn to cash as their only choice. The dollar gained against a basket major currencies. The Japanese government has signalled that it is prepared to intervene in order to combat foreign exchange volatility, as the yen edges closer to $160. Despite recent hawkish comments from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, the embattled currency failed to show a recovery. In the energy sector, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing more oil stockpiled in response to the increasing threats and attacks from the Middle East. Fatih Bilal, the IEA's chief, said that these releases would happen "if needed". He added that the only solution was to open Hormuz.
Chart of the Day Gold fell more than 8% Monday, hitting its lowest level in the year. Last week it had suffered its largest weekly loss for 43 years. The escalating Middle East war fueled speculation about higher global interest rates in order to tamp down the inflationary impact of an energy price spike.
Gold is not performing as well as it did last year as an inflation and war hedge. Investors are looking to sell their best-performing assets.
Watch today's events
Consumer confidence in the EU at 11:00 AM EDT
Ursula von der Leyen, EU's Ursula von der Leyen, begins a three-day trip to Australia
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(source: Reuters)