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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Oil's triple-digit troubles

By Mike Dolan

March 9th -

Mike Dolan is Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets.

Oil shock and stagflation are often used as scare tactics in the financial markets. Both are very much at play now with the energy markets in chaos as the Middle East war enters its second?week with no end in sight. Crude oil prices rose above $100 a barrel on Monday, their highest level since the Ukraine invasion in 2004. If triple-digit oil price increases are not a temporary phenomenon, then the U.S. economy and the global economy may be in real trouble. Central bankers could also face their worst nightmare - stagflation.

Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid today for more information on the impact of the oil price surge.

Oil's triple-digit trouble is intensifying. The war in Iran has triggered an energy crisis. Fuel prices in the United States have risen well over $3 per gallon and are expected to continue rising. Donald Trump said on Twitter overnight that the rising price of oil was "a small price to be paid" in order to win the war. However, many voters may question this. This latest spike in inflation is a concern for investors and central banks, especially after the surprisingly low U.S. jobs report on Friday. Although the data was distorted by the bad weather of February, there were still few positives and signs that labor markets have stagnated. The dark prospect of "stagflation" - a combination of slow growth and rising prices - is now looming. It is still unclear how the Fed will react to this. They will probably just continue to do nothing, which is likely to disappoint almost everyone. Renewed inflation concerns have shaken global bond markets and intensified last week's sell-off, sending yields up - particularly in Britain where two-year gilt rates are on course for their largest one-day increase since 2022. Meanwhile, the stock markets around the globe tumbled, with Japan's Nikkei falling over 5%, and South Korea's KOSPI, which was soaring, dropping nearly 6%. This is on top of the losses of 5,5% and 10% respectively for these indexes last week. U.S. Stock Futures are down by more than 1% ahead of the bell, and the greenback is up as investors seek safety in dollar cash. Gold, the usual safe-haven, failed to deliver once again, as the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields climbed. The markets will be watching to see if the countries start tapping their oil reserves in order to stop the bleeding. Reports on Monday suggested that G7 finance minsters would discuss an emergency release of reserves. Chuck Schumer, the U.S. Senate Democratic Leader, has called on President Trump, who so far has not supported the move, to release oil from U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The crisis is escalating and it remains to be seen how far or for how long this will help. Gulf states continue to reduce their output amid threats against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Tehran appears to be doubling-down as it names hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's next supreme leader. He is the son of Ali Khamenei.

Chart of the day

The spike in fuel prices following the U.S./Israeli war against Iran could be a headache for the Republican Party as it prepares to hold midterm elections in November.

The Midwest and South have seen some of the highest increases, including swing states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

Watch today's events

* ?U.S. Bill auctions for 3-month and 6-month bills

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(source: Reuters)