Latest News
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Bahrain's Alba closes 19% aluminium production as Hormuz continues to disrupt the supply chain
Aluminium Bahrain (also known as Alba) announced on Sunday that it had halted 'three aluminium melting lines,' which accounted for '19% of its total capacity, in order to maintain business continuity amid the ongoing disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. Force majeure was declared by the company on 'March 4, as it could not ship metal to customers due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Alba, which describes itself as the "world's largest?smelter of aluminium on one site," announced in a press release that it had begun a "controlled safe shutdown" for reduction lines 1, 2, and 3. The company added: "This targeted action is designed to optimize the utilisation of Alba's current raw materials inventory, and to prioritise the operational stability across?"Reduction Lines 4, 5, and 6." Middle East smelters - which account for 9% of global supply - have also been unable to import vessels containing their main raw material, Alumina. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Tom Daly)
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Japan releases oil stocks after US orders to buy American
Japan will begin releasing oil on Monday to ease the shock of?the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. This is a stark reminder of the oil shortage that occurred half a century earlier, which prompted Tokyo's creation reserves. Tokyo announced that it would release 80 million barrels of crude oil to Japan, which is enough to last the nation for 45 days. The war in the Gulf has disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The Japanese government has instructed refiners to use the crude oil released, which will reduce Japan's national reserves by 17 percent, to ensure domestic supplies. The amount of oil that will be released by the International Energy Agency for a global supply release of 400,000,000 barrels to combat the war's price volatility and supply shock is unknown. RESERVES STABILISE SUPPLY, BUT "MAINLY BUILD TIME" Yuriy?Humber, CEO of Tokyo-based consultancy Yuri Group, says that Japan's release demonstrates how seriously Tokyo views disruption. The reserves are mainly there to buy time, but can help stabilize supplies and prices on a short-term basis. He said that they couldn't "fully offset" a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry states that any potential release of 12 million barrels held jointly by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in Japan would be additional to the 80 million barrels announced. Japan began its national oil reserves system in 1978, several decades after the Arab oil embargo. The Group of Seven nation is reliant on Middle East oil for 90% of its consumption. It now stockspiles enough to last 254 days. METI reports that the government will begin releasing oil from its reserves to cover 15 days of consumption by the private sector on Monday. METI Minister Ryosei Acazawa stated that private companies are preparing to?tap Japan's stockpiles?, but they also want supplies from Central Asia, South America, and Gulf countries, which can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Japan buys around 4% its oil from the U.S., after ceasing to purchase it from Russia in 2022 following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Lee Zeldin, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Administrator, said: "When you consider the conflict in the Middle East.....you are reminded that all the crude oil..that went from Alaska to Japan..was never..targeted by a successful terrorist.attack." This conflict is a reminder to other nations that the United States has the resources they need. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard; Yuka Obayashi, Katya Golubkova)
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Palestinian Health Authorities say that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in West Bank.
Palestinian health officials said that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians on Sunday. They included a mother, a father, and two children, while they were driving in the occupied West Bank. Palestinian health officials report that a mother and father aged 35 and 37 and two of their children ages?5 or 7 were shot in the head in the village Tammun. Two of their other children also sustained injuries. The Israeli military said that it would be examining the reports. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, a Palestinian also died in an overnight attack by settlers. Rights groups and medics claim that Israeli settlers are using the restrictions on movement imposed by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran as an excuse to attack Palestinians. Military 'roadblocks' prevent ambulances from reaching the victims quickly. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, settlers have killed at least five 'Palestinians' in the West Bank ever since the Iran War began on February 28. Reporting by Ali Sawafta and Emily Rose, Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Editing By William Mallard
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Palestinian Health Authorities say that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in West Bank.
Israeli forces killed 4?Palestinians?, including 2 children?, during a raid on the occupied West Bank?on Sunday. Palestinian health officials report that a mother and father aged 35 and 37 were killed in Tammun village in the West Bank, along with two of their children, ages 5 and 7, while two other children from the same household sustained injuries. The Israeli military stated that it was examining the reports. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, a Palestinian died in an attack carried out by settlers over night on Saturday. Medical groups and rights groups say that Israeli settlers are using military roadblocks to prevent ambulances from reaching Palestinians in the West Bank. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, settlers have killed "at least five" 'Palestinians since Israel and the United States began airstrikes on 'Iran in February. Reporting by Ali Sawafta and Emily Rose, Editing by Shri Navaratnam
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US and China's economic chiefs will meet in Paris, clearing the way for a Trump-Xi Summit
The top U.S. economic officials and Chinese leaders will launch a second round of negotiations in Paris on Sunday. They hope to smooth out the kinks of their trade truce, and prepare for Donald Trump's visit to Beijing at the end March to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Discussions between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to center on the shifting of?U.S. Tariffs, the flow of Chinese rare earth minerals and magnetics to U.S. customers, American export controls, and Chinese purchases of U.S. agriculture products are all expected to be discussed. A source familiar with the planning of the two parties said that the two sides would meet at the Paris headquarters for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. China does not belong to the club of 38 mostly rich democracies, and it considers itself as a developing nation. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer is also expected to join the discussions. The talks will continue a series of meetings held in European cities during the last year, aimed at easing the tensions between the two world's largest economies. U.S. and China trade analysts say that there is little time for preparation, as Washington's focus is on the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. The prospects of a major breakthrough in trade are therefore limited at either the Paris or Beijing summit. Scott Kennedy, an expert in China economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, said, "Both sides have a minimal goal of holding a meeting. This keeps things together and prevents a rupture and reescalation of tensions." Kennedy said that Trump might want to leave Beijing with a commitment from China to buy new Boeing planes and more U.S. soybeans and liquefied gas, but he would need to make some concessions on U.S. Export Controls. Kennedy, however, said that the chances of a summit "that superficially appears to be making progress" but in reality leaves things at their current state for the past four months were good. Trump and Xi may meet at least three more times in 2018. This includes a China hosted APEC Summit in November?and a U.S. hosted G20 Summit in December, which could result in tangible progress. IRAN WAR OIL CONCERNS It is likely that the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran will be discussed at the Paris talks. This is especially true in relation to the recent spike in oil -prices, as well as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz through which China receives?45% of her oil. Bessent announced on Thursday that sanctions would be waived for 30 days to allow the sale Russian oil in tankers stranded out at sea. This was done to increase supplies. Trump called on other countries to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Washington bombed military sites at Iran's Kharg Island, a hub for oil loading. Iran had threatened to retaliate. In a Sunday commentary, China's Xinhua state-run news agency stated that "meaningful" progress could be made in Sino-U.S. Economic Cooperation to restore confidence in an economy which is becoming increasingly fragile. TRADE TRACE REVIEW Both sides will review their progress on meeting the commitments made under the October 2025 Trade truce that was declared by Trump and Xi at Busan in South Korea. The agreement prevented a major flare up in tensions. It lowered U.S. import tariffs and suspended for a whole year China's export controls of rare earths. The deal also halted the expansion of a U.S. list of Chinese companies that are banned from purchasing high-tech U.S. products such as semiconductor manufacturing machinery. China has also agreed to purchase 12 million metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans during the marketing year 2025 and 25 millions tons for the season 2026, which begins with the harvest in the fall. Bessent and other U.S. officials have stated that China has met its commitments in the Busan agreement, citing initial soybean purchases. While some industries receive rare earth exports from China - which dominates the global production - U.S. aerospace firms and semiconductor firms are not receiving them and are experiencing a worsening shortage of key materials, such as yttrium used in heat resistant coatings for jet engine. William Chou said that the U.S. will focus on agricultural purchases from China and greater access for Chinese rare earths at the Paris talks. NEW TRADE PROBES Greer and 'Bessent bring a fresh irritant into the Paris talks: a "Section 301", a new investigation into unfair trading practices that targets China and 15 major trading partners based on alleged excess industrial capacities. This could lead to a second round of tariffs in a matter of months. Greer has also launched a probe into allegations of forced labor in 60 countries including China that could lead to the ban on certain imports. The investigations aim to rebuild Trump’s tariff pressure against trading partners after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global trade tariffs were illegal under an emergency law. The ruling effectively'reduced Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products by 20 percentage points. But he immediately imposed an?global tariff of 10% under another trade law. China denounced Friday the investigations and stated that it reserves the right to take countermeasures. China Daily, the state-run newspaper, added in an editorial that these investigations were unilateral actions that complicate negotiation. Xinhua reported that "the new round of discussions is both an opportunity as well as a test." The U.S. will have a major role to play in determining whether the talks are successful. Washington must approach the talks with a pragmatic and rational mindset, and act in accordance with the principles which underpin stable China-U.S. Economic Relations." (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Additional reporting in Beijing by Ryan Woo; Reporting by David Lawder)
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US and China economic chiefs to meet in Paris to prepare for Trump-Xi Summit
?Top U.S. economic officials and Chinese officials will launch a second round of talks on Sunday in Paris to smooth out the kinks 'in their trade truce, and to prepare for Donald Trump to travel to Beijing at the end of March to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping. The U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, and the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to lead discussions on a number of issues, including shifting U.S. Tariffs, the flow of Chinese rare earth minerals to U.S. buyers and American export controls for high-tech products, and Chinese purchases U.S. agriculture products. A source familiar with the planning of the two parties said that the two sides would meet at the Paris headquarters for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. China does not belong to the club of 38 mostly rich democracies, and it considers itself as a developing nation. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer is also expected to join the discussions. The talks will continue a series of meetings held in European cities during the last year, which were aimed at easing the tensions between the two world's largest economies. U.S. and China trade analysts say that there is little time for preparation, as Washington is focused on the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. The prospects of a major breakthrough in trade are limited at either the Paris or Beijing summits, because Washington's focus will be on this conflict. Scott Kennedy, an expert in China economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, said, "Both sides have a minimal goal of holding a meeting. This keeps things together and prevents a rupture and reescalation of tensions." Kennedy said that Trump might want to leave Beijing with a commitment from China to buy new Boeing planes and more U.S. soybeans and liquefied gas. But to achieve this, he may have to make a concession on U.S. Export Controls. Kennedy, however, said that the chances of a summit "that superficially appears to be making progress" but in reality leaves things at their current state for the past four months were good. Trump and Xi may meet at least three more times in 2018. These meetings could include a G20 summit hosted by the U.S. in December and an APEC summit held in China in November. IRAN WAR OIL CONCERNS At the Paris talks the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran is likely to be discussed, particularly in relation to the "spike" in oil prices, as well as the closing of the Strait o'Hormuz through which China receives 45% of its crude oil. Bessent announced on Thursday that sanctions would be waived for 30 days to allow the sale Russian oil in tankers stranded out at sea. This was done to increase supplies. Trump called on other countries to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Washington bombed military sites at Iran's Kharg Island, a hub for oil loading. Iran had threatened to retaliate. In an editorial, China's China Daily newspaper called for continuity of the U.S. - China dialogue to serve as a "stabilizing pillar" in the midst of uncertainty surrounding the "ongoing Middle East crisis" and how best to resolve specific differences, including those relating to strategic materials, technology and market access, and agriculture. China Daily stated that "in a time like this, a trade conflict between the two world's largest economies is the last thing we need." TRADE TRUCE OVERVIEW Both sides will review their progress on meeting the commitments made under the October 2025 Trade truce announced by Trump and Xi at Busan in South Korea. The agreement prevented a major flare up in tensions. It lowered U.S. import tariffs and suspended for a whole year China's export controls of rare earths. The deal also halted the expansion of an American blacklist of Chinese firms banned from buying high-tech U.S. products such as semiconductor manufacturing machinery. China has also agreed to purchase 12 million metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans during the 2025 season and 25 millions tons for the '2026 season. This will begin with the fall harvest. Bessent and other U.S. officials have stated that China has met its commitments in the Busan agreement, citing soybean sales that met initial goals. While some industries receive rare earth exports, mainly from China which is the world's largest producer, U.S. semiconductor and aerospace firms do not. They are experiencing a worsening shortage of key materials such as yttrium used to make heat-resistant coatings on jet engines. William Chou said that the U.S. will focus on agricultural purchases from China and access to Chinese rare Earths, in the "short term", at the Paris talks. William Chou is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute. NEW TRADE PROBE Greer and Bessent bring a new irritant into the Paris talks. A new "Section 301", investigation into unfair trading practices targeting China and other major trading 'partners, over alleged excess capacity in their industries. This could lead to a second?round tariffs in a matter of months. Greer launched a second investigation into alleged forced-labor practices in 60 countries, including China. This could lead to a ban on certain imports from the U.S. The investigations aim to rebuild Trump’s tariff pressure against trading partners, after the U.S. Supreme Court declared illegal Trump’s global tariffs under emergency laws. The ruling reduced Trump's tariffs against Chinese goods by 20%, but he immediately implemented a 10% tariff on a global basis under another trade law. China denounced Friday the investigations and stated that it reserves the right to take countermeasures. China Daily's editorial said that the investigations were "representative unilateral actions that complicate negotiation." Reporting by David Lawder, Editing by Andrea Ricci
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CNBC reports that Fertitta Entertainment is in talks with Caesars to purchase the company for $6.5 billion.
CNBC, citing 'close sources', reported on Saturday that Fertitta Entertainment was negotiating to buy Caesars Entertainment at $32 per share. This would represent an equity value $6.5 billion. The report stated that Fertitta’s terms for Caesars include a value of $31.5billion, based on the substantial debt the gaming company has. Caesars responded to an emailed question by saying: "As a policy, we do not comment on rumors and market speculation." Could not verify the report immediately. Fertitta Entertainment has not responded to the request for comment made outside of regular business hours. CNBC reported that deal talks will take place this weekend, within a 45 day exclusive window, at Fertitta’s headquarters in Houston. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Fertitta Entertainment was considering paying $34 per share for Caesars. This would give it a market value of $7 billion. Journal reported that the casino operator received a cash offer from Icahn Enterprises - the publicly listed company which houses billionaire Carl Icahn’s investments. Icahn made his first friendly bid for Caesars back in January. He offered $28.50 per share with the promise that the current management would continue to be in place, according to a report by CNBC. Icahn Enterprises didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Icahn?is interested in partnering up with a digital gaming company, which could combine Caesars digital gambling operations and theirs. Caesars reported a?net loss for four consecutive quarters, hurt because of the softening visitor number in Las Vegas which dropped significantly in 2025.
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Tedros, WHO chief Tedros, says that 12 people were killed in a strike at a primary healthcare center in Lebanon
On Saturday, the head of the 'World Health Organization' said that it had'verified 12?doctors and nurses? who were killed during a strike against Bourj Qalaouiyeh Primary Healthcare Center in Lebanon on Friday evening. In a post published on X, Director-General Tedros Adhanom?Ghebreyesus noted that two paramedics were killed earlier in the day in an attack on a hospital in Al Sowana. Israel has launched a massive bombing campaign against the powerful Lebanese group Hezbollah. This has resulted in the deaths of more than 770 people and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of others. Hezbollah also fired hundreds of rockets across the border.
MORNING BID AMERICAS - Dancing in the Dark
By Anna Szymanski
February 13th -
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
Editor's Note
Hello Morning Bid readers! This week has been a rollercoaster ride. We saw a massive election victory in Japan, the extension of artificial intelligence disruption, a pushback against President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, and a mixture of U.S. data that roiled rates markets. All of this suggests that market expectations on everything from technology to "Takaichi" are as clear as mud. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% on Thursday after Cisco Systems' disappointing earnings. Apple's share price also dropped 5% yesterday, the biggest drop since last April when tariffs were announced for 'Liberation Day.' Transportation stocks are the latest victims of 'AI disruption trade. The biggest event this week was the victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayi. Her Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority during the lower house elections held over the weekend. The Nikkei index, which measures the value of Japanese stocks, surpassed 58,000 on Thursday for the first ever time. The yen and Japanese government bonds, two markets that were roiled by Takaichi’s fiscal generosity for months, also gained strength. In fact, the latter is on course to make its biggest weekly gain in over a year. Investors might be betting on Takaichi being given the freedom to be fiscally responsible by her mandate, but it could also be a reflection of technical issues or the fact that negative sentiment has already been priced in. Investors should not be complacent by the post-election euphoria. The yen, and JGBs, could become volatile again when details about the funding plan for the Prime Minister's spending are revealed. The dollar was under pressure this week due to the resurgent Japanese yen, but the greenback gained some ground on Thursday as investors sought out safer assets. Dollar's persistent weakening against euro and yuan in the past year is notable. It seems to be aligned well with recent statements by leaders of both regions regarding their ambitions to have their currencies play a bigger role globally.
A surprising combination of economic data from the United States has shook expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this week. The release of lower-than-expected retail sales for December on Tuesday boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts in April. On Wednesday, however, the January jobs data surprised to the upside. The nonfarm payrolls grew by 130,000 in January, which was almost twice what the consensus expected. However, this increase was concentrated mainly in healthcare and social services, and coincided with huge downward revisions of 2025. Overall, data suggests that the labor market is stabilizing. Why is it expected that the Fed will continue to ease, even with inflation exceeding the Fed's target of 2.0% and signs emerging that global economic activity may be heating up? Governments around the globe are expected to ease their purse strings in 2018, despite massive debt loads (a negative sign for bonds). Meanwhile, tech titans have a capex spree, with $650 Billion planned by four companies for 2026. All of this does not seem to be a recipe for lower rates, even though President Trump wants the U.S. to have the lowest borrowing costs in the world.
Investors will be closely watching the latest CPI data, which is due to be released later today. Oil prices fluctuated this week on the energy markets. They were influenced by news of U.S. Iran negotiations. However, the result of Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with Trump suggests that discussions with Tehran will be continued. The International Energy Agency announced on Thursday that they expect global oil demand to grow more slowly this year than originally forecast. This supports their projections of a significant glut in supply. This might not make sense with Brent crude at $70 per barrel, but oil prices are increasingly influenced by unpredictable external forces.
This is just another indication that even the supposedly efficient global markets will struggle to cope with the changes and twists of 2026, just like us. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Find out why investors might need a new hedge playbook, how a lack of snow in Europe could boost natural gas demand, and why WeChat, Reddit, and other social media sites are contributing to the latest metals boom.
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at to let me know what you think.
This weekend we are reading...
The Doom Loop is the latest book by former IMF economist Eswar Prsad and Cornell Professor, Mike Dolan, who has been a member of ROI since its inception. It explores the consequences of rolling back decades' worth of globalization and multinationalism. He discusses how this happened and what can be done to prevent a destructive "doom loop" from spiraling out of control.
The story of the 1956 Suez Crisis, and the Hungarian Uprising, which unfolded simultaneously with huge global implications, is told by Alex von Tunzelmann in Blood and Sand. The importance of oil to Britain's decision making during the Suez Crisis was fascinating.
JAMIE MCGEEVER is a columnist for ROI Markets. Ben Harris, of the Brookings Institution, asks JAMIE MCGEEVER why U.S. economic growth continues despite policymakers pursuing an agenda which goes against the views of mainstream economists. He offers four possible answers: recent shocks were not as big as initially thought, shocks had been offset by stimuli, shocks hadn't yet moved through the system or economic models were wrong.
ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. The article is about rare earths and is a good primer on their production and consumption.
GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for ROI Global Energy Transformation. This report describes a recent visit by a U.S. Public Utility Commissioner to several clean energy factories and grid equipment manufacturers in China. Her team visited the production lines of EVs and batteries, as well as solar panels, transformers and utility-scale transformers. They made some interesting observations.
CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia Commodities & Energy. One of the most notable features of the Mining Indaba Conference this year was optimism about the future of mining in Africa, as major powers once again compete to gain access to the continent's natural resources. It is not difficult to find articles that support and back up this bullish outlook. Finding an article that argues against this bullish view is not easy. Here's a counterpoint from the feisty, independent Daily Maverick.
Listening to...
ANNA SZYMANSKI is the editor in charge of ROI. She has released the latest episode on dating apps just in time for Valentine's Day. Carmel Crimmins, host of the Econ World podcast, digs deep into the multi-billion dollar business of online dating - why Gen Z is pulling away, how apps keep people swiping and if AI could completely rewrite this model.
We're always watching...
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: I agree with Mike's suggestion and recommend Breakingviews editor Peter Thal Larsen’s recent interview of Eswar Prasad (author of The Doom Loop). Prasad explains the reasons why economic and political structures around the world are crumbling, and how to rebuild them. Not easily.
Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed are the authors'. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
(source: Reuters)