Latest News
-
Energy secretary: Companies will add 40 million barrels to US SPR when the Iran war ends.
After the war in Iran, companies that have borrowed oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will receive an 'extra 40 mln barrels - of crude as premiums. Fuel prices have risen since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began in early February. Wright, however, said that he was not concerned about low stock levels at?the SPR. Wright told Fox Business's "Varney & Company," "I am not concerned because we are not'selling' any barrels of crude oil. We're supplying oil 'to the market 'in the short-term when it is needed, and we trade those barrels." "For every barrel we use, we get 1.25 barrels next year." He said that we would add 40 million barrels after the conflict, and at no cost to taxpayers, to the SPR. The DOE is lending 133 million barrels from the SPR (which is held in underground caverns located in Texas and Louisiana) to companies who will pay back in crude oil, with premiums up to 24 percent. The Department of Energy says the system will help stabilize markets without costing U.S. tax payers. (Reporting and editing by David Ljunggren, Andrea Ricci and Katharine Jackson)
-
A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the US says that high interest rates are a 'trap' in the economy
The central bank's strict monetary policy was criticized by some of Russia's wealthiest businessmen on Friday. One said that it had created "a trap" for the Russian economy. This is the most public criticism of the financial authorities?since a?rate increase in 2024. The economic growth will slow down to 0.4% this year from 4.9% last year due to high rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government measures are unlikely to have a significant impact on growth. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year and there's no end in sight. Profits are down, taxes are up, access to Western markets is still blocked, and private assets have been nationalized. Roman Trotsenko is a billionaire who owns companies in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries. He compared the central bank’s monetary policies to a “Volcker shock,” referring to aggressive rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from 1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference in Russia, held by Sberbank. "This was an?big experiment. No one else has done it." The key interest rate in Russia is 14.5%. It is down from 22% but still considered too high by businesses, even though inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. In his address to the main plenary of the conference, Putin expressed that he understood the "deep sorrow" and "cries of concern" of businessmen over high borrowing costs. However, he said the economic foundations of Russia were solid. "ALREADY A Miracle" Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was "fully aware" of Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem, the owner of the fertiliser manufacturer, compared the actions taken by the central bank to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want to slow down our progress, but they also, as the President said, 'want to inflict strategic defeat. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say "it wants to cool the economy?" Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years, which led the company to cut 24% of its portfolio and its cash flow was negative. "I'm sure that almost everyone in this room has seriously re-evaluated their investment program." With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a?further fall in GDP." Russian billionaires are usually'refrained from making public statements on the conflict in Ukraine. Many Russian billionaires have ceded their control over their companies in writing and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
-
How Trump's ceasefires have failed to end Middle East violence
Residents of Gaza and south Lebanon, as well as northern Israel and Kuwait, were all targeted this week, despite a ceasefire allegedly in place in their respective regions, arranged by the United States. Israeli forces are still active in Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah's rockets struck northern Israel and Iranian attacks targeted Kuwait's airport. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, commented on Wednesday about the continued violence in the Middle East. He said that ceasefires involved "shooting?in a moderate manner", rather than an end to all fighting. Three truces that his administration has negotiated are meant to stop the "warfare". While the major fighting has decreased, people are still dying and munitions continue to fall. Here's how the ceasefire -- and ongoing combat -- is playing out. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CEASEFIRE? On October 10, 2025 the United States brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas that ended major warfare. The ceasefire agreement included a halt in all fighting, Hamas freeing all of its remaining hostages, Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal phased, increased aid, and the opening a border crossing to Egypt. Trump's plan for a ceasefire included agreements on Hamas disarmament, a new Gaza Government without the group’s involvement, reconstruction in Gaza, and a complete Israeli withdrawal. Despite the fact that all hostages have been released, aid to Gaza hasn't increased significantly. Hamas is not willing to disarm. Israel has increased its control over the territory and hasn't begun reconstruction. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continue, with more than 900 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire, including nine Thursday. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza by sporadic Palestinian militant attacks. Why is there still violence in Lebanon? A ceasefire was only partially implemented in 2024 after Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah fought. Both sides accused the other of violating it. In March, after the war against Iran broke out, open warfare resumed. Hezbollah fired into Israel while Israeli forces seized large areas of southern Lebanon. They also pounded other areas with airstrikes. Trump announced on April 16, after rare contact between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives, a 10-day ceasefire. Israel mostly avoided striking Beirut, although intense fighting continued in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese officials, who do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, Israeli strikes since April 16 have killed hundreds. The total death toll is now more than 3,500. Israel claims that 26 soldiers and 4 civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks since March. Iran wants to include a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of any agreement to end the war it has with the United States, Israel and to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement an entirely new ceasefire contingent upon Hezbollah's departure from southern areas. Israel claims it can continue military operations in spite of the ceasefire, and Hezbollah rejects the truce. Fighting continues. Will the US and Iran cement their ceasefire? On February 28, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, aiming to destroy its nuclear and missile programs. Both countries expressed the hope that the theocratic regime would be overthrown. This came after a 12-day conflict last year, in which Israel and the United States struck many Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. The?Strait of Hormuz has been closed off despite the deaths of many senior Iranian figures. This has impacted the global economy and slowed down Gulf energy exports. Early April, the United States announced that it had reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Talks would follow to discuss a "lasting end to hostilities", a "reopening" of Hormuz and an end to a U.S. port blockade. There has not been a full agreement reached despite the repeated rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan or Qatar. Negotiations on the nuclear issue would be put off to a later date if a deal is reached. Iran has also attacked Gulf States including Kuwait in the past week. Why haven't the stopfires been effective? The first phase of all three agreements has failed to produce a lasting ceasefire. The combatants in each case have refused to make the painful concessions necessary to progress beyond the first phase transitional ceasefires. Sometimes, they have turned to military action in order to achieve goals that they had to?set aside when the ceasefires were agreed upon or to test boundaries of the agreements. Urban Coningham is a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute. He said that when there's not much movement or a clear political horizon it's difficult to maintain a ceasefire because the parties have no incentive to keep it up if there are no changes. He said that the diminishing influence and assertiveness by regional powers, as well as the United Nations, have made it more difficult to maintain long-term agreements. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Cynthia Osterman).
-
What is the secret to economic success? Stephen Jen: A good baseball team
What do the four most important tech economies in the world - the U.S.A., Taiwan Japan and South Korea have in common? They are baseball fans. It may not be a mere coincidence. This raises questions about the prospects for two other baseball-loving countries: Venezuela and Cuba. In the U.S., baseball was created in the mid-19th century. It is a combination of rounders and cricket. Baseball is popular among those who have had a long-term relationship with America, just as British sports are in Commonwealth countries. Baseball became popular in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea after World War II, when the U.S. maintained a?heavy military presence. Today, these three economies together with the U.S. represent about 90% of the $40 trillion global tech market capital. The U.S. accounts for most of it, but the three other economies still make up almost 13%. This could not be a mere coincidence. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all benefitted from the focus they placed on education during the post-war period, which helped to create highly numerate population, as well their lack of natural resource, which forced them to develop industries geared towards export. Their close relationship with America has also arguably played a crucial role. It was not just the U.S. Military that had an influence on this part of Asia in the decades after World War Two. American companies also played a role. This became especially noticeable in the technology sector over time. Since years, there have been many interactions between companies in Silicon Valley and entities in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (both universities and companies). Over 20% of the 10,000,000 tech workers in the U.S., are Asian. Many Asian students also attend school in the U.S. Since the 1970s, research and ideas have been exchanged. China complicates this thesis, as you can imagine. China is a technology giant but it's not a baseball nation. Its rise was due to state-directed policies, its size, and access the U.S. led global economic system. Not because of historical ties with America. This distinction could prove to be the key. Baseball is not the reason for tech success but rather a sign of American influence. This helps to explain why China’s relationship with Silicon Valley differs from that of other Asian tech giants. On Deck? This is an interesting question. What about Venezuela and Cuba, two other baseball loving nations? These two nations are not economic giants. Their affinity for baseball points to their historic ties with the U.S. It is a question of whether or not these old links can be transformed into renewed economic, institution, and strategic alignment. Venezuela became one of the largest oil producers in the world after it was discovered early in the 20th century. The mid-20th century saw U.S. oil companies invest heavily in Venezuelan oil exploration and extraction, which in turn supplied an enormous amount of crude oil to America. In this period, American oil workers also helped popularize the game of baseball in Venezuela. It quickly became a national sport. The relationship between the United States and Venezuela deteriorated sharply after the rise in inequality and the fall of energy prices in the late 1990s helped to pave the path for Hugo Chavez’s socialist movement. Baseball remained, even though most U.S. companies had left. Some may remember that, weeks after the U.S. arrested and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in January, Venezuela beat the U.S. baseball team in the World Baseball Classic Final, which was highlighted by U.S. president Donald Trump in a recent press conference. Baseball is not mentioned to suggest that it leads to tech success. Rather, I want to emphasize the long-standing relationship between Venezuela and the U.S. It is not difficult to imagine a similar relationship being rekindled. Before Chavez, Venezuela exported half its oil production to the U.S. A prolonged period of underinvestment has reduced its production to 1.0 million barrels per day. Venezuela's historic ties to the U.S., as well as its vast energy reserves could make it a natural ally again. This is not so unlikely, given the warming relationship between Washington DC and the current Caracas government. Joining the Team Finally, there's Cuba. Cubans and Americans who visited the island in the late 1800s taught them how to play baseball. The sport took off fast, and today more than 400 Cubans play in the U.S. Major Leagues. This affinity is also a reflection of a long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Following the Spanish-American War in 1898, Cuba came under U.S. protection until 1902 when it became independent, although the U.S. maintained the right to intervene in Cuban matters until 1934. The proximity of the two countries, as well as their shared history, has helped to strengthen relations between them. Over the years, however, corruption and inequality culminated with Fidel Castro, who overthrew Batista's government in 1959. This aligned Cuba with the USSR in the Cold War. Cuba, unlike Venezuela with its oil wealth, does not have a clear path to progress. The current economic situation of Venezuela is dire. It has high inflation, blackouts, and other shortages. This is partly due to the fact that it no longer receives low-cost energy from Caracas. Cuba's proximity to the U.S., which was a major concern during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, makes it in the best interest of the largest economy in the world to support positive changes. The history of the U.S. suggests that, given today's complex geopolitical background, it is best to focus on countries with the ability to call balls and strikes. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and editing by Anna Szymanski, Marguerita Choy and Stephen Jen)
-
Siam Cement, Thailand's Siam Cement division, sells Chandra Asri shares for $763 million
Thailand's Siam Cement announced on Friday that its unit sold a nearly 15% stake in Indonesian conglomerate Chandra Asri Pacific at the beginning of June for $24.9 billion ($763.10 millions). According to LSEG, SCG Chemicals is the second largest shareholder of Chandra Asri, behind Indonesian business magnate Prajogo Pangestu's Barito -Pacific. Chandra Asri didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The MSCI removed the Indonesian firm from its domestic global standard index in May, causing it to lose over 80% of their value. Stock market in the country has also suffered, as investors have lost confidence due to fiscal concerns, governance of equity markets, central bank autonomy risks and changing commodity export policies. The benchmark has lost 35% annually in the last year. Siam 'Cement' said that the sale was part of its strategy to reduce debt and reallocate funds to growth projects, such as the Long Son Petrochemicals Ethane Feedstock Enhancement Project in Vietnam. The?company initially acquired a %30 stake in Chandra Asri in late 2011 for 3.76 trillion Rupiah. ($1 = 32.6300 baht) (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk and Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
-
Russian businessmen sanctioned by the authorities accuse them of setting a "trap" in economy
Russian financial authorities created a "trap" for the Russian economy with their tight monetary policy, forcing it into stagnation. This was their most public criticism since an interest rate increase in 2024. The economic?growth will slow down to 0.4% in this year, from?4.9% last year, due to high interest rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government's proposed measures won't provide much of a boost. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year, with no end in sight. Profits are falling, taxes are rising, access to Western market still denied and the largest nationalization drive since 1990. Roman Trotsenko - a billionaire in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries - compared the central bank's policy with a "Volcker Shock," referring the aggressive rate increases of the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from?1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference of Russia in St Petersburg that "this was a huge experiment and no one else has done it since." The key interest rate in Russia is now 14.5%. This is down from the previous high of 22%. However, it is still considered too high by businesses, as inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. ALREADY A MAGIC Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was aware of the Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem fertiliser company, compared the central bank's actions to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want us to be slowed down, but they also want to defeat us strategically, as President Obama said. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say that they want to cool the "economy" down? Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years. The company had cut 24% of its investment portfolio and its cash flow was negative. I am certain that everyone in this room has a serious re-examination of their investment program. With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a greater drop in GDP. Russian 'billionaires' usually avoid making public statements about the 'war in Ukraine. Many of them have ceded formal control of their companies and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
-
The ROI-Market Map: the financial week in six charts
Six charts in one week. Market Map will present a summary of the week's financial performance with six charts selected by Open Interest columnists. We will highlight the major trends, but also some surprising and often overlooked movements. We've said a lot in the past week. Now, let's let the numbers do the talking. (1) "DARK" OIL RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy columnist: In recent weeks the trickle of oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz accelerated as traders adopted stealth measures to cross. The strait's traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, but an examination of oil reserves in the Gulf tells us a different story. SURPRISE MIKE DOLAN is a ROI Finance & Markets columnist. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index, compiled by 'Citi and measuring the extent to the which incoming data beats forecasts, reached its highest level in 2023, as the 'Iran War and Energy Shock unfolded and the AI Investment Boom continued apace. (3) BUYERS STRIKE CLYDE RUSSELL ROI Asia Energy and Commodities analyst: China's seaborne imports of crude?oil dropped to its lowest level in almost a decade, as refiners balked when asked to pay higher prices prompted by the war in Iran and?the resulting effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The drop in almost 5 million bpd compared to pre-war levels helps?to cushion?the loss of volume through the strait. There are concerns about how long China is willing to keep its inventories full and not import. (4) TALK ISN'T CHEAP, JAMIE MCGEEVER, Columnist at ROI Markets: If you are looking for evidence that we have entered an AI bubble, then exhibit A is what you need. Marvell Technology shares surged by 32.5% on June 2. What caused this record-breaking rise? The catalyst for this record rise was not a new investment or news of improved sales, nor speculation about a takeover. It was five words from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang who called Nvidia "the next trillion dollar company." Marvell had a market capitalization of $75 billion three months earlier. Now, it's over $250 billion. It's still unclear if it will reach the $1 trillion mark, but the trend is positive. Will he, or won't he? Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: "All eyes are on this chart as the market evaluates the likelihood of U.S. president Donald Trump imposing imported duties on refined copper. The U.S. copper price on the CME has a growing premium to the international price of the London Metal Exchange ahead of the expected decision at the end June. (6) HELPING HAND GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist: South American crude oils have been overlooked'so far this season, but have grown 'faster than any other region. They are also playing a'meaningful role to help keep the global energy markets fairly well balanced despite Middle East turmoil. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and integrity, independence, as well as freedom from bias.
-
India's GDP grew 7.8% from January to March on the back of resilient agricultural and construction output
The government announced a 7.8% growth rate in India's economy for the quarter of January-March, despite a weakening demand from abroad due to the conflict in the Middle East. The second print in a 'updated' data series, with a revised baseline year and a wider coverage, exceeded the 7.2% forecast in a survey of economists. The reading for January-March was a slight slowdown compared to the previous three month period. The government raised the growth rate for the three previous months from?7.8% to 8.0%. The data showed that gross value added (GVA), a better measure of economic activity at the base, increased 7.9% in the quarter between January and March. GVA removes volatile components from national accounts, such as indirect taxes or government subsidies. The National Statistics Office in India estimated GDP growth for the year ending March to be 7.7%. This compares with the forecast of 7.6% made by the National Statistics Office in February. V Anantha Nageswaran was the chief economist of the country and had predicted economic growth for the current fiscal year at between 7% and 7.4%. This projection was made before the Middle East conflict started. India is one of the countries that have been hardest hit by the Iran War, which has now lasted for a full month without any immediate prospect of a deal between Washington DC and Tehran. India is the third largest crude importer in the world and is heavily dependent on Middle East supplies. The Indian central bank stated earlier that the Middle 'East war will slow the growth of the Indian economy this fiscal year to 6.6%. It kept its benchmark interest rate at the same level, but signaled a possible shift to a hawkish stance due to the inflation pressures and weakness of the rupee. Financial markets have been impacted by the fact that domestic inflation is expected to increase and that fiscal and current accounts are likely to expand. A disappointing'monsoon with the lowest rainfall for 11 years could harm growth in the future. Construction activity increased by 8.4% in January-March compared to a growth rate of 6.7% in the previous period. The growth in agricultural output, which employs over 40% of the enormous workforce of the country, was 3.6% during the fourth quarter 2025/26, up from a revised 1.7% in the previous quarter.
MORNING BID AMERICAS - Dancing in the Dark
By Anna Szymanski
February 13th -
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
Editor's Note
Hello Morning Bid readers! This week has been a rollercoaster ride. We saw a massive election victory in Japan, the extension of artificial intelligence disruption, a pushback against President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, and a mixture of U.S. data that roiled rates markets. All of this suggests that market expectations on everything from technology to "Takaichi" are as clear as mud. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% on Thursday after Cisco Systems' disappointing earnings. Apple's share price also dropped 5% yesterday, the biggest drop since last April when tariffs were announced for 'Liberation Day.' Transportation stocks are the latest victims of 'AI disruption trade. The biggest event this week was the victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayi. Her Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority during the lower house elections held over the weekend. The Nikkei index, which measures the value of Japanese stocks, surpassed 58,000 on Thursday for the first ever time. The yen and Japanese government bonds, two markets that were roiled by Takaichi’s fiscal generosity for months, also gained strength. In fact, the latter is on course to make its biggest weekly gain in over a year. Investors might be betting on Takaichi being given the freedom to be fiscally responsible by her mandate, but it could also be a reflection of technical issues or the fact that negative sentiment has already been priced in. Investors should not be complacent by the post-election euphoria. The yen, and JGBs, could become volatile again when details about the funding plan for the Prime Minister's spending are revealed. The dollar was under pressure this week due to the resurgent Japanese yen, but the greenback gained some ground on Thursday as investors sought out safer assets. Dollar's persistent weakening against euro and yuan in the past year is notable. It seems to be aligned well with recent statements by leaders of both regions regarding their ambitions to have their currencies play a bigger role globally.
A surprising combination of economic data from the United States has shook expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this week. The release of lower-than-expected retail sales for December on Tuesday boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts in April. On Wednesday, however, the January jobs data surprised to the upside. The nonfarm payrolls grew by 130,000 in January, which was almost twice what the consensus expected. However, this increase was concentrated mainly in healthcare and social services, and coincided with huge downward revisions of 2025. Overall, data suggests that the labor market is stabilizing. Why is it expected that the Fed will continue to ease, even with inflation exceeding the Fed's target of 2.0% and signs emerging that global economic activity may be heating up? Governments around the globe are expected to ease their purse strings in 2018, despite massive debt loads (a negative sign for bonds). Meanwhile, tech titans have a capex spree, with $650 Billion planned by four companies for 2026. All of this does not seem to be a recipe for lower rates, even though President Trump wants the U.S. to have the lowest borrowing costs in the world.
Investors will be closely watching the latest CPI data, which is due to be released later today. Oil prices fluctuated this week on the energy markets. They were influenced by news of U.S. Iran negotiations. However, the result of Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with Trump suggests that discussions with Tehran will be continued. The International Energy Agency announced on Thursday that they expect global oil demand to grow more slowly this year than originally forecast. This supports their projections of a significant glut in supply. This might not make sense with Brent crude at $70 per barrel, but oil prices are increasingly influenced by unpredictable external forces.
This is just another indication that even the supposedly efficient global markets will struggle to cope with the changes and twists of 2026, just like us. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Find out why investors might need a new hedge playbook, how a lack of snow in Europe could boost natural gas demand, and why WeChat, Reddit, and other social media sites are contributing to the latest metals boom.
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at to let me know what you think.
This weekend we are reading...
The Doom Loop is the latest book by former IMF economist Eswar Prsad and Cornell Professor, Mike Dolan, who has been a member of ROI since its inception. It explores the consequences of rolling back decades' worth of globalization and multinationalism. He discusses how this happened and what can be done to prevent a destructive "doom loop" from spiraling out of control.
The story of the 1956 Suez Crisis, and the Hungarian Uprising, which unfolded simultaneously with huge global implications, is told by Alex von Tunzelmann in Blood and Sand. The importance of oil to Britain's decision making during the Suez Crisis was fascinating.
JAMIE MCGEEVER is a columnist for ROI Markets. Ben Harris, of the Brookings Institution, asks JAMIE MCGEEVER why U.S. economic growth continues despite policymakers pursuing an agenda which goes against the views of mainstream economists. He offers four possible answers: recent shocks were not as big as initially thought, shocks had been offset by stimuli, shocks hadn't yet moved through the system or economic models were wrong.
ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. The article is about rare earths and is a good primer on their production and consumption.
GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for ROI Global Energy Transformation. This report describes a recent visit by a U.S. Public Utility Commissioner to several clean energy factories and grid equipment manufacturers in China. Her team visited the production lines of EVs and batteries, as well as solar panels, transformers and utility-scale transformers. They made some interesting observations.
CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia Commodities & Energy. One of the most notable features of the Mining Indaba Conference this year was optimism about the future of mining in Africa, as major powers once again compete to gain access to the continent's natural resources. It is not difficult to find articles that support and back up this bullish outlook. Finding an article that argues against this bullish view is not easy. Here's a counterpoint from the feisty, independent Daily Maverick.
Listening to...
ANNA SZYMANSKI is the editor in charge of ROI. She has released the latest episode on dating apps just in time for Valentine's Day. Carmel Crimmins, host of the Econ World podcast, digs deep into the multi-billion dollar business of online dating - why Gen Z is pulling away, how apps keep people swiping and if AI could completely rewrite this model.
We're always watching...
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: I agree with Mike's suggestion and recommend Breakingviews editor Peter Thal Larsen’s recent interview of Eswar Prasad (author of The Doom Loop). Prasad explains the reasons why economic and political structures around the world are crumbling, and how to rebuild them. Not easily.
Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed are the authors'. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
(source: Reuters)