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Macron reiterates his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as TotalEnergies warns of an energy shortage
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, reiterated his commitment to reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. This comes a day after TotalEnergies's head warned of a global energy shortfall if the Iran swar continued for several months. Speaking at a press conference with Greek Prime Minister KyriakosMitsotakis in Athens, Macron said that geopolitical uncertainties can lead to panic, which in turn could cause shortages. "Our aim is to achieve full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next days and weeks in accordance with the international law. This will guarantee freedom of navigation, without tolls, on the Strait of Hormuz. Macron stated that things will gradually return to normal. TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne called for the reopening of the Strait on Friday, which is normally the route through which a fifth (or more) of the world's oil supply flows. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has slowed down the movement of goods through the strait. Fertilisers and pharmaceuticals are among the items that have been affected. Iran has seized containers and the United States has imposed a blockade in Iranian ports. Pouyanne said at the World Policy Conference outside Paris that if it continues for two or three more months, "we will enter a world where energy is scarce." Asian countries have already experienced this. "You can't have 20% of oil and gas on the planet stranded, and not available without major consequences." More than a dozen countries have said that they would be willing to join a mission led by France to protect shipping along the strait if conditions permitted, even though U.S. president Donald Trump said he did not need help from allies. "We are all in the same boat and I would say that it is not a boat that we chose. Macron said that we are victims of geopolitics, and victims of a war that began several months ago. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Additional reporting by Claude Chendjou, Paris)
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US lets Venezuela pay Maduro’s lawyer in drug-trafficking case
Maduro is captured by US forces in Caracas raid in January The charges against him and his spouse include narcoterrorism conspiracies Defense attorneys call restrictions on payment unconstitutional By Luc Cohen A court filing on Friday showed that the United States has agreed to change its sanctions against Venezuela so that the South American nation's government can pay Nicolas Maduro’s defense lawyer. This is a reversal of a restriction which had 'threatened' to derail the drug-trafficking case brought against the former Venezuelan President. Maduro and Cilia Flores were arrested by U.S. Special Forces on 3 January from their Caracas home and brought to New York, where they will face criminal charges, including narcoterrorism conspiracies. The two have pleaded innocent and are being held in Brooklyn jail pending trial. Barry Pollack, Maduro’s lawyer, asked Manhattan’s U.S. district judge Alvin Hellerstein in February to dismiss the case because U.S. sanctions prevented the Venezuelan Government from paying his legal costs. Pollack stated that the prohibition amounted a violation of Maduro’s rights under U.S. Constitution, to choose the counsel he wants. Their lawyers said that neither Maduro nor Flores could afford to hire lawyers on their own and the Venezuelan government was willing to pay for their legal fees. All criminal defendants in America have constitutional rights, regardless of their citizenship. Hellerstein stated in a court hearing on March 26, that he had no intention of dismissing the case but appeared sceptical that the government's decision to block the payments was justified. Kyle Wirshba, the prosecutor, said that the U.S. sanction blocking the payments was based on legitimate foreign policy and national security interests. Wirshba said Hellerstein couldn't order the Treasury Department to modify sanctions, because it is the executive branch that has the responsibility for foreign policy, and not the judiciary. Hellerstein pointed out that since Maduro was ousted, the U.S. has relaxed its sanctions against Venezuela. Since Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodrguez took over Venezuela as interim leader, the relations between Caracas, Venezuela and Washington have improved. "The defendant is present, Flores' is also present. Hellerstein, an appointee by Democratic President Bill Clinton to the judiciary, said that they do not pose a threat to national security. "The right at stake, and paramount to other rights, is that of constitutional counsel." Donald Trump, during his first term as president of the United States, increased sanctions against Venezuela because he believed that Maduro was corrupt and undermining democratic institutions. Washington called Maduro’s 2018'reelection fraudulent. Maduro dismissed these accusations as well as allegations of 'his involvement in drug trafficking', which he said were pretextual justifications of what he described as a U.S. wish to seize the vast oil reserves of South American OPEC country. (Reporting from Luc Cohen in New York, with additional reporting by Rhea Rosa Abraham in Bengaluru. Editing by Nia William)
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Republicans re-tool midterm campaign strategy: Trump's policies but less Trump
The Republicans are revising their plan ahead of the November midterm elections. With gas prices in the U.S. up, Donald Trump's ratings on approval down, and Iran still a hot topic, they're recalibrating. The strategy? The strategy? Four people who attended the meeting said that a group of Trump's advisers, including White House chief staff Susie Wiles and political?chief James Blair, laid out a plan to help candidates promote Republicans' policies on?tax reductions? and inflation. Republicans are trying to keep Trump out of the spotlight, because they fear that his declining political fortunes will hurt competitive congressional races. Trump's party is facing an uphill struggle to maintain its majority in the House of Representatives, and there's a growing danger of losing control of Senate. Three Republican operatives and a seasoned Republican campaigner, who spoke under the condition of anonymity in order to discuss private discussions and give candid assessments, said that there is growing concern among some Republican operatives that Trump's presidency and political clout are running low. Trump seems to be stuck in a deadlock, as both his military and diplomatic efforts have failed to denuclearize Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a?two-month war. AAA reports that the average national gas price is now nearing $4 per gallon. This could undermine the new tax policies of the Republicans' "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", the signature legislative achievement from Trump's second tenure. A /Ipsos survey found that only 36% of Americans approve Trump's performance, which is the lowest in his current term. Many Americans, including Republicans, are concerned about Trump's mental sharpness and temperament after a series explosive outbursts. Trumpworld's political strategist said that "are going to try and nationalize the elections and say that we are a rubber stamp of?Trump". "We need to get out of this and show race-by-race why we are the better option." Within the political operation of the president, there is a strong belief that Trump is a powerful messenger. Kiersten Pels is the national press secretary of the Republican National Committee. She said that Trump will remain the "most powerful driver" for conservative voter turnout during the midterm elections, and that Republican candidate are eagerly seeking to get his endorsement. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales stated that Trump is the "unambiguous leader of the Republican Party and he's committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress". EMPHASIS IS?ON LOCAL ISSUES NOT TRUMP Over coffee and pastries, Trump's team invited guests to sign nondisclosure agreements. They then predicted that Republicans would win the Virginia redistricting elections the following day. People familiar with the meeting said that the mood was positive. Details of the meeting were leaked almost immediately. Virginia voters approved a new map of the congressional district that Democrats had drawn to favor their party's November election. One of those present at the meeting asked: "If they are so confident in Virginia that they lose, do they have a problem with their whole approach?" Some Republican insiders point out that midterm elections are still months away and that a lot can happen before the voters head to the polls. Gas prices and inflation may fall if armed hostilities against Iran are reduced. David McIntosh is the president of Trump's Club for Growth. In the run-up to the elections, Republicans were planning to position Trump as their standard-bearer and the man who had, as he often said, "made the United States the hottest country in the world." Wiles said in December that Republicans would change the midterm game plan by putting Trump on the ballot, rather than keeping him at a distance. People now say that this plan is less appealing. Republicans will focus on local issues instead of allegiance to President, they said. Another person familiar with the meeting said, "The politics has changed." In January, it made sense to nationalize the race around him. The person stated that voters don't think the president does enough to reduce their costs, but still believe Republicans are trying to do this. The Trumpworld strategist?added that Republicans can use the low popularity of the Democratic Party to compare policy ideas. Trump's declining support could provide Democrats with fertile ground for attaching Republican candidates to Trump's shortcomings. Trump, who ran for office in 2024 as an opponent of "stupid" wars and branded himself a "peace President," is now leading the largest U.S. Military operation since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Critics claim that Trump's administration did not consider how Iran would react to a?joint U.S. and Israeli attack, or the economic fallout. This included an unprecedented global energy supply shock as well as the threat of a financial crisis worldwide. Trump's Tuesday decision to extend indefinitely what was originally a two-week truce was widely seen as a retreat. Tehran maintained its grip on Strait of Hormuz, and was committed to a nuclear programme. Aaron David Miller is a former Middle East diplomat for both Democratic-Republican administrations. He said Iran believed it had leverage over the crucial oil shipping channel, and could also suffer more economic pain than Trump. Miller, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expert, said that the Iranians believe Trump's tolerance for a political and economic price is limited. "They are prepared to wait for him."
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Maine Governor rejects the first US state to freeze new data centers
Janet Mills, the Democratic Governor of Maine, vetoed on Friday a bill which would have made Maine the first U.S. State to impose an 'electricity-hungry data center moratorium. The bill would have frozen the approval of data centers that require more than 20 megawatts in power until October 2027, while an appointed council by the state analyzed the impact they had on local grids, electricity bills, and air and water. Mills wrote to the Maine legislature that she supported a temporary ban on data centers and would have signed it if the bill had allowed an exemption for the data center being built in the town of Jay. "A moratorium would be appropriate, given the impact of massive data centres in other states both on the environment and the electricity rates." The final version of the bill does not allow for the Town of Jay to have a project that is supported by the local community and the region. A boiler explosion in 2023 caused the closure of Androscoggin Paper Mill, resulting in hundreds?of job losses. Mills stated that the construction of a $550-million data center at this site would create more than 800 construction jobs as well as at least 100 permanent high-paying jobs. It would also generate property tax revenue for the town. The decision taken on Friday is a reflection of the difficult choice that political leaders face when weighing the impact data centers have on the environment, household energy costs and the tax revenue and investment they can generate. Mills said she also plans to issue a executive order to establish a council that will examine the impact of data centres in Maine. She has also signed a law to prevent data center projects being eligible for Maine's tax incentive programs. American tech giants are pledging to spend more than $600 billion this year on artificial intelligence data centres as part of an investment spree which 'has boosted U.S. economy and is considered largest since the telecom boom in the late 1990s. At least 11 U.S. States are now considering legislation to halt or restrict the development of these facilities. This is despite the Trump administration's pressure on states to not regulate AI. Last month, Washington asked big technology companies to sign at the White House an 'unconditional pledge' that they would pay for the new electricity generation needed to power their data centres. Senator Bernie Sanders, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez have both introduced legislation that would halt construction of data centers until Congress passed AI safety legislation. Aditya soni, Chris Thomas, and Mrinmay dey reported from Mexico City. Pooja desai edited the story.
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Sefcovic, EU's Sefcovic, says that the US has indicated that it will not ease Russian oil sanctions once again.
Sefcovic said that during his Friday talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent he had raised concerns over 'the recent U.S. easement of sanctions on Russian Oil,' and understood it would not happen again. Sefcovic said he had been told by U.S. officials the relief in sanctions was due to concerns over the "extremely hard situation" that some low-income countries face, who are heavily dependent on imported oil. The U.S. Treasury Department issued on Friday a general license related to Russia, allowing for the sale and delivery of Russian crude oil as well as petroleum products on vessels from April 17. This license extends a previous one through May 16. Bessent told U.S. Senators this week that he had extended sanctions relief?on Russian seaborne crude oil for an additional 30 days, after receiving requests from countries most at risk of shortages?due to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said that the requests were made during last week's spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Sefcovic told Bessent that he had discussed the matter with him during their meeting earlier this week. He was informed, however, that the relief of sanctions was necessary to address the current situation in the Strait, where the flow is largely blocked due to an uneasy ceasefire agreement between the U.S. He said: "My clear understanding was that it will not be repeated again in the future. It was also done due to the fact that several countries with lower incomes were in a very... difficult position." Sefcovic and Bessent also discussed disruptions to fertilizer supply chain, with a focus on Europe as well the "alarming" situation in Africa. "It is on our radars and we're ready to work together," he said. Bessent last week pushed the Group of 20 Major Economies to agree to a coordinated?action with the IMF and World Bank to ensure that countries have access to?fertilizer supplies. Since the U.S. and Israel's bombing campaign on Iran began on February 28, Asian economies have been particularly affected by the lack of oil from the Gulf. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Paul Simao
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Sefcovic, EU's Sefcovic, says he has discussed steel with US officials and that the discussion is moving in a positive direction
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that he and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick had 'agreed' to accelerate discussions about steel derivatives on a technical level. Talks have already begun. Sefcovic told reporters that, in his opinion, both sides are moving forward on the steel issue. He said that both the United States as well as the EU were facing the same problem of massive overcapacity on the global market, without mentioning China. Sefcovic told a press conference that "we are not each other's problem" after signing an agreement on critical minerals with U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio. "Our trade is small and it is very much focused on the specialized steel which we both require, but we are facing a large overcapacity." Sefcovic estimated that global overcapacity at 720 million tonnes, which was flooding and destroying the sector. He said that the crisis is what prompted the European Union?to nearly halve the imports of steel, and impose 50% tariffs on excess shipments in order to protect the bloc?s steel industry. Due to the rising imports, and tariffs of 50% imposed by President Donald Trump in the U.S., EU steel producers are only operating at 65% capacity. The new measures are intended to increase capacity utilization to 80%. Sefcovic told?Lutnick he had proposed that the two 'blocs' ringfence their respective steel?sectors, and to trade at favorable terms between themselves. He called this a "defensive" mechanism against steel subsidies. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker, Franklin Paul, and Andrea Shalal)
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US sanctions Chinese teapot refinery that bought Iranian oil
Trump Administration announced on Friday that it had imposed sanctions on an independent "teapot refinery" in China for?buying billions worth of Iranian crude oil while Washington and Tehran are struggling to restart peace negotiations. Treasury Department targeted Hengli Petrochemical Refinery Co., which they said was one of Iran's biggest customers for crude oil and petroleum. The Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Treasury Department said that it had also imposed sanctions against about 40 shipping firms and vessels operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet. Last year, the Trump administration imposed sanctions against teapots Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group and Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical. This created a few hurdles for refiners. They had to receive crude and sell refined products under different names. Teapots make up about a quarter (25%) of Chinese refinery capacities. They operate with 'narrow and sometimes negative margins', and have recently been squeezed by the tepid demand at home. Some independent refiners have been deterred from purchasing Iranian oil by the U.S. sanctions that block U.S. assets and prohibit Americans from doing business. Data from Kpler's analytics firm for 2025 showed that China purchases more than 80% Iran's oil. The experts in the field of sanctions have long maintained that independent refineries, due to their limited exposure to the U.S. Financial System, are immune from the full impact of U.S. Sanctions. They say that imposing sanctions on China’s banks, which facilitate the?purchases of Iranian oil would have a greater impact on those purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. was imposing a financial "stranglehold", on the Iranian Government. Bessent stated that Treasury will continue to restrict the network of vessels, intermediaries and buyers Iran depends on to transport its oil to international markets. Teapot refiners have recently had to purchase Iranian oil at a premium to Brent oil prices after Washington temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil shipped at sea. This was done to encourage India to buy more oil. The U.S. allowed the waiver expire last week. Timothy Gardner and David Gaffen edited this report.
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Gold heads for first loss in five weekly weeks
Gold was up on Friday but on course for its first weekly loss in the last five week as the markets were on edge due to lingering inflation concerns and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. - Iran war. At 01:41 pm, spot gold was up by 0.6% to $4,721.15 an ounce. ET (1741 GMT) after rising more than 1 percent earlier in the day. The price of gold is down over 2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,740.90. Gold prices?fell throughout the month of March, as the U.S. - Iran war boosted the dollar and raised fears about inflation. This weighed down on the demand for gold. The conflict is at a standstill. Even though the number of military attacks by the countries involved has decreased, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Investors are left to fill in the gaps or react to U.S. President Donald Trump's comments, which have tempered expectations of a peace deal with threats to resume attacks. Pakistani sources confirmed that Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, was due in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday, to discuss proposals to restart peace talks with United States. However, he was not expected to meet U.S. delegates. Separately Israel and Lebanon extended a ceasefire of three weeks. The market is currently in a positive net situation. "Energy prices are also falling," said Daniel Pavilonis senior market strategist at RJO?Futures. The oil prices fell on Friday but have risen this week as a result of the failure of a second round of talks between the U.S. Oil prices that are higher can cause inflation, which could lead to interest rate increases. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that gold fell (this week) as a result of the rising oil price, expectations for higher rates and yields. Benchmark 10-year ?U.S. Treasury yields rose 1.5% in the past week, increasing the cost of owning?gold. The dollar, on course for its first weekly increase in three weeks, also increased the price of bullion for other currencies. Silver spot rose by 1.4%, to $76.49 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.5%, to $2,015.98, and palladium grew 2.2%, to $1,499.75. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
MORNING BID AMERICAS - Rise of the robot job-killers?
By Anna Szymanski
Feb. 6 -
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers! Investors have reevaluated what businesses are worth anything in an AI-driven world. The week started with a sale of some of the oldest forms of value in the world, such as gold and silver. The so-called "software-mageddon" is expected to wipe out roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization for the S&P 500 index of software and services this week. Anthropic's new tool, which could automate legal work, as well as sales, marketing and data analysis, was the catalyst for this drop. This rout cannot be explained by an unproven plug-in. This is a sign that the technology revolution has entered a new phase where AI will no longer be able to lift all boats. Investors will instead increasingly discriminate between disruptors, and those who are merely victims.
Theoretically, managers who are active should welcome this kind of dispersion.
The problem with a "stock picker's' market" is that you need to actually pick the right stocks. This may be more difficult than ever now that previous correlations and trends are not likely to hold.
Investors who worry that AI will take over everything are also worried about the amount of money the 'Magnificent Seven' mega-caps spend to dominate AI. Amazon shares fell 11.5% on Thursday in after-hours trade after the company announced a 50% increase in capital expenditures by 2026. Analysts praised Alphabet for its announcement that it would aim to spend $175 billion-$185 billion on capital expenditures this year, but the shares took a dive. Bitcoin, reflecting the risk-off sentiment, hit a 16-month-low early on Friday. It tested the $60,000?level before recovering slightly. From digital gold to real gold, the yellow-colored metal has fallen about 10% since its recent high. After a massive drop on Friday and on Monday, it recorded its largest one-day rebound since 2008. Gold has risen significantly in the last two years but this volatility is not something that many investors and central banks signed up for.
Silver is now trading at less than $75 an ounce. This is more than 35% lower than its previous high, and after its largest one-day decline in history last Friday. What was the original cause of the metals crash? If you've forgotten, Donald Trump announced on Friday that Kevin Warsh was his choice for the Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh is a former inflation hawk. The announcement of a more-orthodox-than-anticipated nominee supposedly upended the 'dollar debasement' narrative, reducing the attractiveness of previous metals.
It's possible that this explanation is true, but it's more likely to be a result of technical problems and speculation than a real revaluation. Oil prices were volatile, just like all other commodities, this week as tensions between Iran and the U.S. sawsawed. Crude is now set to register?its first drop in seven week. The two factors that are most important to oil prices at the moment - the possible conflict in Iran and China’s oil purchases – are outside the control of OPEC. Tuesday saw the announcement of an important trade agreement between the U.S., India and other countries that could have a significant impact on the oil market. President Trump announced that India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, and will instead buy "much" more oil from the U.S. It's not clear if this will happen as the economics could be illogical. Investors could be forgiven if they missed the central bank announcements amid the turmoil of the past week. The Bank of England, like the European Central Bank, kept its policy rates the same. However the BoE meeting was notable because of the 5-4 unexpectedly close vote. The Reserve Bank of Australia has finally bucked global easing, or pausing, by delivering the first rate increase in over two years. This could be the beginning of a global shift in credit policy. There are signs that the pressure on U.S. inflation is increasing. This heat could increase, given the large amount of AI capex that is projected. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Find out why the U.S. push to gas power may inadvertently accelerate the global shift toward clean energy, what Europe should be asking and why Trump could soon complain about "clueless Kevin Warsh".
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me via.
This weekend we are reading...
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: Our own Mike Dolan observes shrewdly that U.S. president Donald Trump has a readymade scapegoat if his interest rates aren't cut as much as Trump wants.
ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. My colleagues Manya Sainsi, Niket Nishant and Ashitha Shivprasad dive into a fascinating exploration of the rapidly growing gold token market where virtual and real worlds meet.
MIKE DOLAN is a columnist for ROI Finance & Markets. A recent BIS Working?paper outlines what it calls "the dangers of shrinking fiscal space". It is clear that central banks are under increasing pressure to relax monetary policy in order to avoid constraining the fiscal capacity. The authors try to identify a fiscal 'tipping point' beyond which further rate increases would have severe macroeconomic consequences and political implications.
CLYDE RUSSELL is the columnist for ROI Asia Commodities. My recommendation for this week: shameless self promotion. Informa interviewed me recently about the outlook of China's iron ore and steel sectors. I explain why the decline in Chinese steel production is not as alarming as it may sound.
GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for the Global Energy Transition. This Cleanview analysis discusses how U.S. Data Centers are bypassing grids and building their power plants in order to have enough electricity.
Listening to...
ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in-Charge of ROI. In a recent Econ World episode, Ernest Scheyder, senior correspondent, speaks with Carmel Crimmins, the host, about the high stakes race for vital minerals and the implications for the global economic system.
We're always watching...
RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. In the most recent episode of The Great Simplification Nate Hagens reflects – and builds on – Anthropic CEO Dario Amedei's essay about the role of AI in the long-arc of human development.
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The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
(source: Reuters)