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VEGOILS-Palm rises on strong Dalian palm olein, crude oil prices
Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Monday for the fourth consecutive session, following the strength of crude?oil and Dalian palm olein. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the 'Bursa Malaysia derivatives exchange had gained 85 ringgit or 1.86% to 4,657 Ringgit ($1,184.99), a metric tonne. A Kuala Lumpur based trader reported that Dalian palm oil futures had seen strong gains during the morning Asian sessions, when it traded at its highest price since June 2022. The trader said that "the market was also supported" by "firmer crude oil price." Dalian's soyoil contract with the highest volume increased by 0.34% while palm oil contracts grew by 2.52%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.95%. As palm oil competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oil?market, it tracks the price movements of its rival edible oils. The price of crude oil rose, as investors focused on threats to Middle East oil installations, despite U.S. president Donald Trump's request for nations to assist in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz - a vital artery used for energy shipments around the world. Palm oil is a better option as a feedstock for biodiesel due to the stronger crude oil futures. Intertek Testing Services, a cargo surveyor, estimated that exports for Malaysian palm oils products from March 1-15 were up 43.5% compared to a month earlier. AmSpec Agri Malaysia will release its estimates later that day. The ringgit (the currency used to trade palms) strengthened by 0.15% against dollars, increasing the price of the commodity for buyers who hold foreign currencies. Indonesia's senior economic minister has said that if needed, the government may have to impose additional taxes on certain commodities such as palm oil in order to lessen the impact of rising oil prices on the budget. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil could test support at 4,494 ringgit a metric tonne after twice failing to break through resistance at 4,612 ringsgit.
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Indian shares are up, but Middle East conflict limits gains
India's benchmark indexes rose on Monday morning, rebounding from their worst week for years. However, investors remain?wary that crude oil will continue to rise above $100 per barrel amid the prolonged Middle East conflict. As of 10:08 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.2%, to 23,189. The BSE Sensex increased by 0.18%, to 74697.2. Nine out of 16 major sectors were higher. Mid-cap and small cap fell by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. The U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran has led to the closure of Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of global oil?and?gas shipments. Brent crude was hovering around $104 per barrel as U.S. president Donald Trump called on other countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rising are bad for India, the third largest crude importer in the world, because they can increase the fiscal deficit and inflation, which will negatively impact the growth. V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. Vijayakumar stated that foreign portfolio investors will likely continue to sell Indian equities even if the markets rise. Since the start of the war, foreign portfolio investors sold Indian shares totaling more than $5 billion in March. This is a record monthly outflow. Citi, the broker, has lowered the year-end target for the benchmark Nifty 50 index from 28,500 to 27,000 points. The reason given was the impact that higher crude oil prices have had on the economy and earnings. The gains on Monday in Indian markets were similar to those of their Asian counterparts, who rose by 0.4%. Consumer stocks rose 0.7%, while heavyweight financials gained 0.6% to lead the gains in India. IDBI Bank's share price fell 13.3% following?media reports that the Indian government would?shelve bids received for the sale of a majority stake in the lender.
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JSW Steel unit eyes debut $1 billion shorter-duration debt issue, bankers say
Two merchant bankers on Monday said that India's JSW Kalinga Steel is set to issue its first shorter-duration bonds before the end of this month, as it aims to raise up to 95 billion rupees (about $1.03 billion). Bankers said that the company will likely sell two tranches with a five-year term each. The aim is to raise 60 billion rupees or 35 billion rupees through these bond sales. The notes would have zero-coupon paper and put and call options. Crisil rated the bonds of JKSL as AA. The ratings took into account the credit support that was expected from JKSL’s joint venture partners JSW Steel, and Japan-based JFE Steel Corporation. One of the bankers cited above said that "most of the top mutual fund companies have signed up as anchor investors and the bidding will take place at the end of this week, or early next," The bankers asked for anonymity as they were 'not authorized to speak to the media.' JKSL, however, did not respond to an email asking for comment. JSW Kalinga Steel, a 100% subsidiary of Piombino Steel Ltd., also holds a 100% shareholding in JSW Sambalpur Steel Ltd. These?entities were formed to own and operate Bhushan Power Steel Ltd.
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Chinese iron ore buyers ease buying ban
Iron ore futures fell from their two-month highs as China's state-backed buyer of iron ore eased its?ban until next week on a top-miner BHP product, while weaker steel production?and property statistics weighed on sentiment. As of 0237 GMT, the?most traded? May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.92% higher/lower. It was 807.5 yuan (US$117.08) per metric ton. Sources said that China will ease a ban on BHP's?Jimblebar fines, an iron ore product, until next week. This comes only a day after Beijing expanded restrictions against its third-largest supplier. Sources said that China would ease the ban on BHP’s iron ore product?Jimblebar fins until next week. This comes only one day after Beijing tightened restrictions on its third largest supplier. China Mineral Resources Group (the state-run iron ore buyer) told domestic steelmills they could already take delivery of Jimblebar?fines at ports in a week. Steelmakers and traders are excluded from the exception. CMRG banned steelmakers and traders in September from buying Jimblebar Fines. It has gradually expanded these restrictions, and most recently, this week, while it negotiates the terms of BHP’s 2026 Supply Contract. Statistically, the world's largest steelmaker produced 160.34 millions tons of "crude steel" in January and February, a 3.6% decrease from last year, according to the Statistics Bureau. Beijing has promised to reduce industrial production, including steel, in an orderly fashion as it struggles with persistent overcapacity. In February, home prices in China continued to drop. This indicates that the property sector remains troubled despite some signs of improvement. Steelhome, a consultancy, reported on March 13 that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports had increased by 2.24 percent. Coking coal and coke are also included in the list of steelmaking ingredients that harden. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks have mostly gained. Hot-rolled coil remained unchanged, while wire rod increased by 0.3%. Stainless steel, meanwhile, lost 1.65%.
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Coal India unit Central Mine Planning seeks $1.33 billion valuation, IPO opens Friday
A newspaper advertisement states that Coal India subsidiary Central Mine Planning & Design Institute has set a price range of 163-172 rupees per share for its 18.38 billion rupee ($198.68 millions) initial public offering. The company that provides support and consultancy services for coal and minerals exploration is looking to be valued at $1.33 billion, i.e. the top of the price range. The IPO will be available for subscription between?March 20 and March 24. Global markets are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions resulting from a conflict in the Middle East. India's primary markets have also been affected by the weak sentiment, as seven out of 11 IPOs that were launched in 2026 listed below their original issue price. Bharat Coking Coal is another subsidiary of Coal India. Its debut in January saw a nearly two-fold increase, thanks to the support?of its parent and the robust demand for coking coal from steelmakers. Central Mine Planning’s IPO is a pure offer to?sell, with Coal India aiming to?offload as many shares as possible. The company reported a?profit?of 4,25 billion rupees?for the nine-month period ending?December 2025. This is up approximately 9% from the year-ago time period.
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Japan's Nikkei index falls for a third consecutive day, as the Iran crisis fuels stagflation fears
Japan's Nikkei average fell for the?third day in a row on Monday, as the Middle East Crisis threatened to cause longer-term economic damage through higher energy prices and a weaker yen. As of midday, the benchmark index?Nikkei225? fell by 1.3% to 53138.42. The Topix index, which is a broader measure of the market, fell 0.7% to 3,602.71. The Nikkei index has fallen more than 9% in the past two weeks since U.S. airstrikes on Iran began. As the conflict spread to neighbouring countries, it paralyzed the shipment of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei briefly rose after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he was urging other countries in order to safeguard shipping routes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has no plans to send?naval ships to escort vessels in the Middle East. Satsuki Katayama, the Finance Minister, said that the government was prepared to act decisively on the financial markets as the yen fell close to the psychologically significant 160 per dollar line. Maki Sawada is an equity strategist at Nomura Securities. She said that the market appears to be increasingly worried about stagflation. This occurs when economies are gripped with simultaneous increases in inflation and declines in economic growth. Sawada stated that "concerns over an economic slowdown caused by a rise in oil prices" are now being taken into account. "Rather than a general selloff, we are seeing a tendency where these domestic demand segments are performing strongly and underpinning Japan's?stock market." The Nikkei had 43 advancing stocks versus 182 declining ones. Furukawa Electric, Fujikura and other key suppliers in the artificial intelligence industry were the biggest losers. Both fell 6.7%. The index's biggest gainers were NH Foods (up 2.3%) and Denka (a chemical and advanced material company), which gained 2.2%. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Tokyo)
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Reactions to Trump’s call for assistance to secure the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. president Donald Trump asked allies to help'secure the Strait of Hormuz' as Iranian forces 'continued attacks on this vital waterway during the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran in its third week. Trump claimed that his administration has already reached out to seven countries but refused to name them. In an earlier post on social media, Trump said he hoped China would join the effort, as well as France, Japan and South Korea. Iran effectively closed the Strait between Iran and Oman. This narrow passage of water has cut off a fifth global oil supply, the largest disruption in history. Some countries responded to Washington's request to send ships to the region: On Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has no plans to send naval vessels to escort ship in the Middle East. "We have made no decisions about dispatching escort vessels." Takaichi, a member of parliament, said that we are "continuing to look at what Japan can do on its own and what is possible within the legal framework". AUSTRALIA A government minister announced on Monday that Australia would not send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We will not be sending a vessel to the 'Strait of Hormuz. Catherine King, who is a cabinet member for Anthony Albanese, said in an interview with ABC that she was aware of how important this issue is. However, the government has not asked her to do so or requested that she contribute. SOUTH KOREAN The South Korean presidential office announced on Sunday that it would "communicate closely with the U.S. about this matter" and then make a "decision following a careful review." BRITAIN A Downing Street spokesperson said that Prime Minister Keir starmer and Trump discussed the necessity to reopen Strait in order to stop disruptions to global shipping. Starmer spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the two agreed to continue discussions on the Middle East conflict during a Monday meeting, said the spokeswoman. (Compiled by Himani Sarkr; edited by Michael Perry).
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China's aluminium production in January and February is up due to higher profitability
Official data released on Monday showed that China's primary aluminum output in the first two?months of 2026 increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. This was due to higher profits. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China was the world's largest producer of aluminum. In January and February alone, it produced 7.53 million metric tonnes of primary aluminium. Profit margins for light metal, which is widely used in construction, packaging and auto manufacturing, have improved, resulting in an increase in output. According to Chinese research firm Antaike, aluminium smelters made an average profit per ton of 7,879 Yuan ($1,142.26), up?2.2% from month to month, as input costs fell while the price for the light metal increased. The most active aluminium contract increased by nearly 11% in January. However, it fell back almost 7% in February. Antaike reported that the input costs fell 0.7% on a monthly basis and 6.4% annually as electricity prices and alumina raw materials dropped. The production of ten non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel, grew by a?3.9% year-on-year to 13.42 millions tons. Other non-ferrous materials include tin, mercury, magnesium, antimony and titanium. China combines the output data from January and February to reduce the impact of Lunar New Year holidays that fall in either month. $1 = 6.8977 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
MORNING BID AMERICAS - Rise of the robot job-killers?
By Anna Szymanski
Feb. 6 -
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers! Investors have reevaluated what businesses are worth anything in an AI-driven world. The week started with a sale of some of the oldest forms of value in the world, such as gold and silver. The so-called "software-mageddon" is expected to wipe out roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization for the S&P 500 index of software and services this week. Anthropic's new tool, which could automate legal work, as well as sales, marketing and data analysis, was the catalyst for this drop. This rout cannot be explained by an unproven plug-in. This is a sign that the technology revolution has entered a new phase where AI will no longer be able to lift all boats. Investors will instead increasingly discriminate between disruptors, and those who are merely victims.
Theoretically, managers who are active should welcome this kind of dispersion.
The problem with a "stock picker's' market" is that you need to actually pick the right stocks. This may be more difficult than ever now that previous correlations and trends are not likely to hold.
Investors who worry that AI will take over everything are also worried about the amount of money the 'Magnificent Seven' mega-caps spend to dominate AI. Amazon shares fell 11.5% on Thursday in after-hours trade after the company announced a 50% increase in capital expenditures by 2026. Analysts praised Alphabet for its announcement that it would aim to spend $175 billion-$185 billion on capital expenditures this year, but the shares took a dive. Bitcoin, reflecting the risk-off sentiment, hit a 16-month-low early on Friday. It tested the $60,000?level before recovering slightly. From digital gold to real gold, the yellow-colored metal has fallen about 10% since its recent high. After a massive drop on Friday and on Monday, it recorded its largest one-day rebound since 2008. Gold has risen significantly in the last two years but this volatility is not something that many investors and central banks signed up for.
Silver is now trading at less than $75 an ounce. This is more than 35% lower than its previous high, and after its largest one-day decline in history last Friday. What was the original cause of the metals crash? If you've forgotten, Donald Trump announced on Friday that Kevin Warsh was his choice for the Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh is a former inflation hawk. The announcement of a more-orthodox-than-anticipated nominee supposedly upended the 'dollar debasement' narrative, reducing the attractiveness of previous metals.
It's possible that this explanation is true, but it's more likely to be a result of technical problems and speculation than a real revaluation. Oil prices were volatile, just like all other commodities, this week as tensions between Iran and the U.S. sawsawed. Crude is now set to register?its first drop in seven week. The two factors that are most important to oil prices at the moment - the possible conflict in Iran and China’s oil purchases – are outside the control of OPEC. Tuesday saw the announcement of an important trade agreement between the U.S., India and other countries that could have a significant impact on the oil market. President Trump announced that India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, and will instead buy "much" more oil from the U.S. It's not clear if this will happen as the economics could be illogical. Investors could be forgiven if they missed the central bank announcements amid the turmoil of the past week. The Bank of England, like the European Central Bank, kept its policy rates the same. However the BoE meeting was notable because of the 5-4 unexpectedly close vote. The Reserve Bank of Australia has finally bucked global easing, or pausing, by delivering the first rate increase in over two years. This could be the beginning of a global shift in credit policy. There are signs that the pressure on U.S. inflation is increasing. This heat could increase, given the large amount of AI capex that is projected. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Find out why the U.S. push to gas power may inadvertently accelerate the global shift toward clean energy, what Europe should be asking and why Trump could soon complain about "clueless Kevin Warsh".
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me via.
This weekend we are reading...
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: Our own Mike Dolan observes shrewdly that U.S. president Donald Trump has a readymade scapegoat if his interest rates aren't cut as much as Trump wants.
ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. My colleagues Manya Sainsi, Niket Nishant and Ashitha Shivprasad dive into a fascinating exploration of the rapidly growing gold token market where virtual and real worlds meet.
MIKE DOLAN is a columnist for ROI Finance & Markets. A recent BIS Working?paper outlines what it calls "the dangers of shrinking fiscal space". It is clear that central banks are under increasing pressure to relax monetary policy in order to avoid constraining the fiscal capacity. The authors try to identify a fiscal 'tipping point' beyond which further rate increases would have severe macroeconomic consequences and political implications.
CLYDE RUSSELL is the columnist for ROI Asia Commodities. My recommendation for this week: shameless self promotion. Informa interviewed me recently about the outlook of China's iron ore and steel sectors. I explain why the decline in Chinese steel production is not as alarming as it may sound.
GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for the Global Energy Transition. This Cleanview analysis discusses how U.S. Data Centers are bypassing grids and building their power plants in order to have enough electricity.
Listening to...
ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in-Charge of ROI. In a recent Econ World episode, Ernest Scheyder, senior correspondent, speaks with Carmel Crimmins, the host, about the high stakes race for vital minerals and the implications for the global economic system.
We're always watching...
RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. In the most recent episode of The Great Simplification Nate Hagens reflects – and builds on – Anthropic CEO Dario Amedei's essay about the role of AI in the long-arc of human development.
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The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
(source: Reuters)