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European shares fall on AI concerns and inflation fears
European shares dropped on Monday, as technology stocks were under pressure following leaders of top AI companies who pushed for a slower pace of development. Meanwhile, a surge in global bond yields and oil prices dampened risk appetite. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down by 0.5%, at 635.99. The majority of regional markets fell, but London and Zurich's indices rose by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. As AI-linked stocks fell globally, technology shares were among the worst performers, falling 2.1%. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, called for companies to halt the advancements in AI models due to misuse concerns. This view was backed by xAI’s Elon Musk as well as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. The STOXX 600 was led by the French chipmaker Soitec, which fell 12.5%. However, software stocks gained. Octave Intelligence, Capgemini, Sage and Relx all rose between 5% and 75%. Chris Beauchamp is the chief analyst at IG. He said, "These stocks were victims of SAASpocalypse on fear AI would wipe their businesses out." "Those fears were exaggerated, but if the AI giants put their foot down, the outlook for revenue for Sage, RELX, and their SAAS brothers globally becomes much brighter. Even if this only delays a long-term loss of biz." European miners declined 2.5% as a result of the weakness in commodity prices. Healthcare stocks rose 2.7%, bucking the trend. GSK grew by 4.7% following the positive results of two lung cancer drugs. This added to the momentum in this sector. Energy stocks fell 0.8% but crude prices rose 2% as supply concerns increased after new strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure, and attacks against ships in the Middle East. Recent oil prices have heightened inflation concerns, which has led to expectations that central banks around the world could raise interest rates this year. The European economies are especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, as they heavily rely on imports. ECB policymakers warned 'on Monday' that euro zone inflation may exceed high forecasts. Traders now price in an additional 25 basis-point ECB rate increase by the end of the year after last?week?s rate hike. Government bond yields soared as a result of the developments. The 10-year bund - considered to be the benchmark for the region - was at its highest level since mid 2009. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields also rose to a psychologically important level of 5%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its main lending rate by at least 25 basis point this week --?in stark contrast to the split chances between a hike or a pause that were seen only a week earlier. After a close election, which reduced the influence of the far right, Sweden's opposition centre-left appeared most likely to win power on Monday.
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German Finance Minister demands UniCredit CEO to meet certain conditions regarding possible Commerzbank acquisition
On Monday, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil outlined a list of demands to UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel regarding the possible acquisition of Commerzbank by the Italian bank. The German Ministry of Finance said that these included Commerzbank staying listed on the stock market, maintaining its base in Frankfurt, and continuing to fund German medium-sized businesses?at home as well as abroad. After Berlin failed to stop a takeover, the meeting in Berlin marked an important turning point in the two-year struggle for control of Germany's largest bank. Klingbeil said, "In a productive discussion with Mr. Orcel I made it clear to him that future negotiations should be conducted responsibly." Orcel stated in a press release that the meeting was "a good and constructive first discussion that will be quickly followed by others." He said, "Both sides should now reflect on this initial discussion to find a way forward that is in the best interests of all stakeholders and shareholders."
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The UK government is looking to buy out an insolvent steel specialist
The British government announced on Monday that it was drafting a plan to buy Speciality Steel UK, a manufacturer who formerly supplied the automotive, aero, and defence industries and entered liquidation at the end of August 2025. Speciality Steel was a part of Liberty Steel before it went into liquidation. Liberty Steel is owned by the commodities tycoon Sanjeev Gupta. The government announced that it was moving toward public ownership, after it decided it couldn't support a private sector bid. This company?has locations in Northern and Central England and supports more than 1,300 jobs. "We don't interfere in private companies lightly." "We cannot simply sit back and let the future of this company and its 1,300 employees be decided by default," said Jonathan Reynolds, business minister. Working towards public acquisition 'will keep options open while we work with workers, local leaders, industry, and investors to determine the best?long-term?"future? for these sites." The government stated that any purchase would be subject to a due diligence process and would be funded by existing government budgets. The government did not specify how much an acquisition might cost.
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EPA will undo carbon emissions limits for power plants during G20 meeting
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will announce on Monday its final 'rule' that will repeal the Biden administration’s carbon emission limits for coal and gas fired?power plants. This is a major part of their broader efforts to undo U.S. Climate Policy that they claim has hindered American energy production. The announcement will take place on the sidelines a meeting of G20 energy Ministers in Houston, where global officials will discuss "regulatory efficiencies," expanding baseload power, and energy security. In June 2017, the Trump administration proposed to repeal rules that were written by former President Joe Biden in order to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and mercury from power plants. Biden's carbon emission rules for power plants would have cut greenhouse gas emissions from 1 billion metric tonnes by 2047. This was a key part of the administration's effort to combat climate change. Nearly a quarter (25%) of the U.S. greenhouse-gas?pollution is attributed to the electricity sector. At the time, EPA administrator Lee Zeldin claimed that this move would save businesses $120 million a yearly. Environmental?groups have criticized the proposal saying that it would cause more harm to the environment and the public health. Denying a quarter of the climate pollution in the United States is reckless. ?It'll lead to more deaths and suffering due to intense heatwaves and dramatic?storms.
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Rosatom, a Russian company, says that a new nuclear power plant in Hungary will be able operate even when the Danube River is low.
The Russian nuclear company 'Rosatom' said Monday that the planned expansion of Paks Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary will be able to run during low water levels on the Danube River. Paks, which provides nearly half of Hungary’s electricity, was only operating at 10% capacity for a few days in August because of record-low river levels and a prolonged heatwave. Alexei Likhachev, Rosatom's head, told reporters that "as everyone knows, it has happened on occasion when the River Danube ran low and additional measures have been taken to ensure water supply." "Our project includes a number?of solutions that allow it to function even when the water levels are lower than during this dry summer. This has been taken into consideration in the project. The project, worth 12.5 billion euros ($14.41billion) to expand the Paks nuclear plant by adding two VVER reactors made in Russia was awarded without a competitive tender to Rosatom's state-owned nuclear corporation. It has been delayed for years. The comments by Rosatom's chief follow the remarks of Hungarian Premier Peter Magyar in August, who said that plans to cool the nuclear power plant using the?Danube should be reviewed. Magyar, who was elected as Prime Minister in the spring, criticized Viktor Orban's?Paks-2 as being too expensive and needing a re-evaluation. Likhachev stated?on Monday? that the Russians are still willing to discuss Paks-2? with the Hungarians but have not received any proposals. "We are ready to dialogue at any level, whether it is at the expert or government level." "We are waiting for suggestions on how to organize this work."
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Dangote, Africa's richest person, is aiming for his biggest deal ever.
Aliko Dangote, a serial entrepreneur who began his career by selling candy to schoolmates in northern Nigeria more than 50 years ago, is now preparing Africa's largest stock market listing. The sale of $1.6billion worth of shares in the giant Lagos oil refinery - a 'public offering' that will list the refinery in Nigeria in November - valued the company at $47.5billion. This deal represents the culmination in Dangote’s efforts over the past decade to build a mega-refinery that is now among the 10 largest refineries in the world. This is also the culmination of a career which has seen him go from a schoolyard sweets seller to Africa's wealthiest man. The 69-year old has no intention of stopping there. Proceeds from the IPO will be used to expand the Nigerian refinery and launch a project in Kenya that will see the capacity doubled. SUGAR CEMENT RICE SALT Born in Kano, a northern Nigerian state, in 1957, Dangote's maternal grandfather was the primary caregiver. He credits his grandfather with inspiring his business interest. In a 2015 interview, he stated that "when you're raised by entrepreneurial parents or grandparents you pick up this aspiration." It makes you more aggressive and think that anything is possible. I was unable, despite my repeated requests, to get an interview with Dangote. In 1977, after graduating from the university in Egypt, he started trading rice and sugar with a relative. In the early 1980s he founded Dangote Industries in which he holds 85%. He built it into a multinational conglomerate that includes sugar, salt, and cement. It operates in more than a dozen African nations. Dangote’s personal fortune is estimated to be between $31 and $35 billion. This was a result of his cement business, which has been very profitable. The government policies that encouraged domestic cement production have helped Nigeria to become self-sufficient in this?essential material for building, but they have also fueled criticisms that the lack of competition keeps prices high. ECONOMIC FOLK HERO FOR SOME, VILLAIN FOR OTHERS Influence came with wealth In a 2005 cable, leaked by U.S. diplomatic sources, they said that he had been hailed as an "economic folk-hero" by many, but viewed by others as a villain, because of his close proximity to the political world. They wrote: "The truth lies somewhere between these caricatures." Dangote is often described as being reserved by those who have met him, despite his wealth and power. "He has an instinct for opportunities and the discipline to make his ambitions real," said Kenyan author and businesswoman Gina Din Kariuki. "But it wasn't his ego that stayed with my, it was the humility he showed." He avoids flashy displays and drives himself. He has a habit of threatening to purchase his favorite soccer team, London's Arsenal. But he is proud that he keeps the majority of his wealth in Nigeria. Bismarck Rewane is the CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Ltd in Lagos, and has known Dangote since more than two decades. Some people have called him a control-freak. I see it more as a passion to get things done. Local fuel traders in Nigeria, however, accuse Dangote, of using political connections to squeeze out rivals. He argues his 700,000-barrels-per-day ?refinery can now meet Nigeria's fuel needs and is battling in court to end imports. Regulators have, however, warned against the risk of a fuel supply monopoly. The Dangote Group and Dangote neither responded to inquiries for comment regarding the allegations. He has stated that the listing will help to counter concerns about monopolies. He told a conference in 2013: "They'll say that we now have shares. So let everyone have a piece of it." Dangote's mission to push Africa towards self-sufficiency was brought into sharper focus by the Iran war, which exposed Africa's dependency on fuel imports. According to a source familiar with the talks, after the conflict raised concerns about fuel supplies, Kenya approached Dangote regarding the construction of an East African refinery. Dangote announced the project two months later with Kenyan and Ugandan officials. He said that it will begin this month.
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Yemen's displaced yearn for stability and loved ones as Houthis advance
As the Houthi militants of?Yemen, who are Iran-aligned, swept across the battered coastline of?Red Sea, thousands of people panicked fled into makeshift camps. This added to a large population of internally displaced persons. Aisha Mohammed, like other people who fled coastal areas to reach the province of Taiz in southwest Saudi Arabia, left her three sons and two daughters trapped in their homes, as fighting transformed a vital trade route into a route for displacement. "They're being shot at and blocked." Right now, we can't reach them and they can't return to us. Muhammad said, "This is a test from God", as he boiled water in a black teapot on rocks over a fire. The International Organization for Migration (IOM), said on Sunday that more than 82,000 people had been displaced since the beginning of the month. This includes over 2,000 people who crossed the Gulf of Aden into Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa. Tehran is strengthening its hand in the conflict with the U.S. as the Houthis advance, already controlling most of Yemen's north and most populous areas. Another YEMEN CRISIS Yemen is no stranger to hardship. A long civil war between the forces of an internationally recognised administration, backed by Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Yemen is mired in war since 2014 when the Houthis took over the capital Sanaa, prompting an intervention by Saudi Arabia the year after. The U.N.-brokered 2022 truce largely stopped major fighting despite it expiring six months after its signing. However, efforts to make the truce into a permanent political settlement have stagnated as regional tensions intensified. With their lightning-fast western offensive, the Houthis – mountain fighters in sandals that have become a force of up to tens or thousands of missiles and drones have opened a new theatre of war. They are now in a good position to tighten the grip on?the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait - a crucial chokepoint for shipping oil and commodities around the world - six months after 'the U.S. Amy Pope, director general of IOM, said: "Behind each number is a lost family." "Many people have been displaced more than once. They are crossing the ocean with nothing, because they have no choice. Yemen is a nation torn apart by poverty and war, and cannot "carry this crisis on its own." IOM shared a video showing Yemenis arriving in boats along Djibouti’s northern coast being given food and water by a refugee settlement nearby. Djibouti’s finance minister, Ilyas dawaleh, stated on Sunday that?the situation was "becoming more difficult for our nation, despite our commitment to humanitarian resources". Many in Taiz are longing again for stability, including Abdullah Qaiyd an elderly man with a walking stick. "Now look at us." We are shook and tormented to the core. "We long for basic livelihood and safety", he said.
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Rosatom, a Russian company, says that a new nuclear power plant in Hungary will be able operate even when the Danube River is low.
Rosatom, the Russian nuclear state corporation, announced on Monday that the planned expansion of Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary would be able to function during times of low water levels along the Danube. Paks, which provides nearly half of Hungary’s electricity, was only operating at 10% capacity for a time in August due to the record-low river levels during a prolonged heatwave. Alexei Likhachev, the Rosatom chief, told reporters that "as everyone knows, it has happened before when the River Danube ran low and additional measures were taken to ensure water supplies." "Well, we have incorporated a number?of solutions which allow us to continue operating even when the water levels are lower than during that dry summer." This has been taken into account in the project. The project, worth 12.5 billion euros ($14.41billion), to upgrade the Paks nuclear power plant to a 2-gigawatt facility with two VVER reactors made in Russia was awarded to Rosatom without a tender to be held by Rosatom. This has been a long-delayed project.
How strong is too Strong?
By Anna Szymanski
30th January -
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers!
The U.S. maintains that it has a "strong dollar policy" but few are able to agree exactly what this means. The dollar fell to its lowest level since early-2022 on Tuesday. This move was initially sparked by Friday's expectations of a joint U.S. and Japanese?intervention in order to prop up yen. After President Donald Trump said that the dollar would "find its levels" in response to the currency's decline, the decline intensified. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then helped stabilize the currency by reiterating U.S. Government's "strong dollar" policies. Is this a reversal? Not necessarily. Even if a currency is depreciating, it can still be considered strong - particularly if the currency has appreciated by almost 50% over the past decade. If the administration intends to eventually put downward pressure on the supposedly too-valuated dollar, then they may end up with more than they bargained. Investors are, however, more optimistic about the dollar's future this morning. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is now the frontrunner in the race to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. He has been a critic of current central bank but is seen as less supportive of radical monetary ease than other candidates. He said that he will announce his decision later today. Unsurprisingly, this week the yen was one of the most active currencies against the dollar. Japan's currency rose to a value of 152 dollars per yen on Tuesday. However, it has since lost some of its gains. The big move could suggest that no intervention is needed, but the history shows that this is not true. The transatlantic exchange rate, which is crucial to the euro's future, briefly rose above $1.20 for the first four years. Europe will be watching this closely, though, as too much strength may make it difficult for EU exporters and the European Central Bank to meet next Thursday. In the midst of the FX turmoil, global trade agreements, diplomatic agreements, and energy deals continue to be negotiated - but not with the U.S. This week, the EU and India signed a long-awaited deal, and Britain and China celebrated a'reset' in their relations after Keir starmer, Prime Minister, and President Xi Jinping, pledged to increase economic cooperation. The European countries also announced a joint agreement to develop a vast offshore network to reduce their dependence on U.S. LNG imports. As we stay on the subject of energy, U.S. gas prices rose as a powerful Arctic storm swept through the United States. This spike in prices has also been felt on overseas markets, underlining the globalization of U.S. LNG trade. Energy world attention is now focused on the Middle East where an American "armada' has been sailing toward Iran. Prices fell early on Friday as Washington and Tehran continued to negotiate. However, the rising tensions in the Middle East have helped drive up oil prices around 15% since January. Crude is unlikely to leave its "narrow" price range unless there's a significant action taken in Iran which has a lasting impact on global supply and demand. This week, Wall Street saw the earnings of a number of large-cap tech companies, such as Meta, Microsoft and Apple. The results were mixed but one thing that stood out was the fact that investors would be fine with massive AI expenditure, as long as growth is robust. The Fed meeting was expected to be another big event in the financial week, but the outcome was a bit of an apathy fest. As expected, the Fed kept rates steady and there was no big news at the press conference. Powell couldn't speak much on the subject of Fed independence but his silence says a lot about the current situation the central bank is in. Powell did give some advice to his replacement, but now he, along with the rest of financial community, is eager to confirm who it will be. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has a wealth of information on commodities and markets. You can find out which high-flying stocks are currently catching the attention of investors, where there is a supply glut in oil, and how the future may be written by nuts and bolts.
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, listen to and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at to let me know what you think.
This weekend we are reading...
Mike Dolan, ROI Finance & Markets columnist: NYU Professors Viral Aharya and Toomas laarits write for CEPR VoxEU that the increase in U.S. Treasury Yields since the tariff shock last April is due to a drop in the "convenience" yield tied to the safe asset status.
RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Nat Bullard’s 200-slide presentation, which he presents every year, contains all of the most recent data and charts about energy and decarbonization.
JAMIE MCGEEVER (ROI MARKETS COLUMNIST): "Bubbles As a Feature Not a bug", a new Carlyle Group analysis, contextualizes today's AI boom in the context of the history and development of transformative technologies. They argue that the bubble will eventually deflate or pop, but this is part of the process. "The bottom-line is that bubbles have always been a part of the technological revolution."
CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia Commodities & Energy. This report by Australia's electricity operator shows that renewables have reached a record. They supplied over half of the nation's energy during a quarter. This report, which coincides with lower wholesale prices shows that a high penetration of renewables can be reliable and cost-effective.
ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. A new TradingPedia study shows that hybrid and electric cars account for over 25% of European car sales. The data is broken up by country and manufacturer and illustrated using some neat graphics.
GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for ROI Global Energy Transformation. A new article by Infrastructure Investor?argues that a global shortage in gas turbines will limit the growth of U.S. electricity system.
Listening to...
ANNA SZYMANSKI: Editor-in charge of ROI, ANNA SZYMANSKI said that on the Morning Bid podcast Mike Dolan and Amanda Cooper talked about the Fed's latest meeting, the tensions in Iran, and what the biggest takeaways were from this week’s mega-cap earnings. Subscribe to Morning Bid and you'll get Mike's weekly preview this Sunday.
We're always watching...
RON BOUSSO is a columnist for the ROI Energy website. Clyde Russell, a fellow ROI Energy writer, joined Gulf Intelligence's daily podcast to talk about how China boosted its strategic oil reserves by increasing crude purchases in 2013.
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X. Opinions are the sole responsibility of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
(source: Reuters)