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The yen is a hazed mess before the Fed

Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow.

Investors have focused their attention on the Federal Reserve rate decision this week, but on Wednesday the currency markets briefly turned to the Japanese yen.

After a sudden fall in the yen's value against the euro, and a drop of nearly 0.9% versus the Aussie dollar, the yen appeared to be slurring its words. The dollar was also on the verge of breaking through the 157-yen mark.

The move was not a major event, but it could have been a way to position itself ahead of next week's policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Markets have almost priced in a 25-basis point hike, but the future is still unclear. There is little reason to tighten policy beyond December, given the lingering fiscal and growth concerns in Japan.

If the expected hike next week is followed by another?months' wait, then the yen's trajectory will not change much - which means more downside risk.

Even at 0.75% rates,?Japan's would still be among the lowest in world. The announcement comes at a time when policymakers in Australia, Europe and elsewhere have indicated that they may be considering a rate hike.

Markets elsewhere reacted little when data showed that China's annual inflation rate accelerated in November to its highest level in 21 months, and factory-gate deflation increased.

The Politburo - the top decision making body of the ruling Communist Party - said this week that China would continue to expand domestic demand in 2026 and support the economy through more proactive policies.

The rupiah in Indonesia has weakened slightly after news that the United States trade agreement is at risk, according to an official from the United States, as Jakarta has retracted on several of its commitments made under the deal.

Later, an Indonesian government official said that tariff negotiations between the United States and Indonesia are progressing as planned by both leaders.

The Fed was the focus of attention, as the?outcome on Wednesday could be the most divisive in recent years.

Investors have had a stressful few weeks in the lead up to this meeting. There was little data available during the record 43-day U.S. Government shutdown. Fed officials sent contradictory messages and President Donald Trump's Administration pushed for lower interest rates.

Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic adviser and the leading candidate to become the Fed's new?chair. He told the WSJ Chief Executive Council on Tuesday that there was "plenty" of room to reduce interest rates. However, he said, if inflation increases, then the calculation?"may change."

The Bank of Canada is also expected to announce its policy announcement on Wednesday. It will likely remain unchanged on rates due to a growing economy and an easing of inflation.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday.

- Federal Reserve rate decision

Bank of Canada Rate Decision

(source: Reuters)