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The pAIn trading MORNING BID AMERICAS

By Anna Szymanski

LONDON (November 21)

What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.

The Nvidia boost was short-lived. The U.S. equity market fell on Thursday, despite an initial rally. Both the Nasdaq index and Dow recorded +1,000 points from the peak to the trough. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by tech stocks, saw its largest intraday movement since April's tariff tantrum. Nvidia's $57 billion record third quarter revenue, and its rosy outlook did not calm fears of an AI bubble. Jamie McGeever, ROI's markets columnist, explains that the chip giant's most recent figures highlight the same concerns that have recently roiled the markets, including massive AI spending and extreme concentration. Investors are clearly worried about AI capex indigestion. This is especially true given the increased use of debt financing investments that have very high profitability thresholds, as ROI's editor-at-large Mike Dolan noted this week. The delayed release of September's U.S. employment report was another big story yesterday. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs, which is more than double the consensus forecast. However, the August figures have been revised downwards by 4,000. The Federal Reserve is also concerned that the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% - the highest since October 2021. Mike Dolan argues that this release is unlikely to help the Fed clarify the employment market situation, given the messy data likely to follow the U.S. shutdown, which was the longest ever. In Asia, on Friday the Japanese yen hovered near a 10-month-low around 157 to the dollar, after Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi approved an economic stimulus package worth 135.5 billion yen. This raised the prospect of FX interventions. Jamie McGeever says that the yen’s position as a safe haven for global investors may be under threat. Ron Bousso, ROI's energy columnist, did a deep dive on the green transformation as the COP30 summit in Belem Brazil continued. He argued that the transition will be more bumpy and fractured than what leaders anticipated when the Paris Agreement was signed ten year ago. Ron warns investors not to be fooled by the gloomy energy transition vibes. In the energy market, the U.S. is now the world's top LNG exporter, which has led to the belief that "freedom gas" shipments will continue to rise for many years. Gavin Maguire, ROI's energy transition columnist, argues that American LNG vendors could face rapid volume declines if European gas users curb their use. This is especially true if U.S. companies fail to gain market share in Asia. Clyde Russell, a columnist for ROI, examined this week the rise of fossil fuels in China, its growing oil reserves, and the decline in steel production due to an increase in iron ore imports. The global competition in metals has now reached Aluminium scrap, which is the least glamorous component of the metallic supply chains. Andy Home, a metals columnist for ROI, explains why such a humble material should actually be considered 'a strategic commodity.

Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me at

This weekend we are reading...

MIKE DOLAN is Editor-at Large for ROI Financial Markets. This column by VoxEU makes an interesting argument that Europe's lack in defence capabilities leaves the continent highly vulnerable to pressures from economics and foreign policy.

CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia Commodities and Energy. This article in Renew Economy discusses Australia's hybrid utility-scale solar and battery plant that will soon be online. This is a first-of-its-kind combination. It could be a future model.

GAVIN MAGUIRE is a ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist. This fascinating report by The Examination shows how lead recycling for U.S. auto batteries poisons people in Nigeria. This is a terrible outcome for policies intended to protect American consumers against toxic emissions.

Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: I highly recommend Eric Onstad's analysis on why some rare Earths are more rare than others. The article also contains my quote of week, Erik Eschen CEO of Germany’s Vacuumschmelze. "If you're talking about critical resources, then it's the heavyweights, the heavyweights, and the heaviweights - the rest of what we get."

Listening to...

JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: The latest "Econ World" podcast with chief emerging market correspondent Karin Strohecker uses recent financial turmoil in Argentina to explain everything you need to about exchange rate policies and currency banks.

RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy Columnist. I recommend the Gulf Intelligence Daily Energy Markets Podcast to anyone who wants a closer look at the market. This episode is particularly interesting because our own ROI Asia Commodities columnist Clyde Russell appears as a guest. He discusses China's stockpiling of oil and the impact Trump's policy has on the market.

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The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski)

(source: Reuters)