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Inflation data ahead of the stock market's best month since 2023

The dollar flirted with its first annual rise on Friday, as traders awaited key U.S. data on inflation and Washington's latest fluttering about tariffs.

Investors have tried to ride the roller coaster of news this week after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily restored tariffs that were temporarily blocked by a U.S. district court.

The initial decline in European stock prices on Friday was followed by gains of 0.3% to 0.8% despite this.

Unexpected dip

Mixed results in German retail sales

Inflation numbers

Wall Street futures fell ahead of the PCE inflation data, which is due to be released before the opening bell.

The main MSCI world index has risen over 5% in the last month, while the dollar is tantalizingly near to its first month of positive growth since 2025.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, which are a proxy of U.S. borrowing cost, rose again in European trading after falling following soft economic data on Thursday and a strong 7-year bond sale.

Investors were also alarmed by a provision that was not widely publicized in Trump's proposed budget. This would have allowed the government to tax foreign investments up to 20 percent.

Elias Haddad, a Brown Brothers Harriman strategy, said that the foreign tax provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was alarming. He added that the uncertainty increased the risk of stagflation where the inflation remains high but the economic growth stagnates.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), is due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. This could influence bets about whether or not the U.S. will cut interest rates again this year.

Trump invited Fed Chair Jerome Powell for their first face to face meeting since taking office in January. He told Powell that he had made a mistake by not lowering the interest rates.

The Fed has responded with a

Statement

Its decisions "will be based on the latest economic data".

OPTIMISM EMERGING

The oil prices are on course for a second successive weekly decline on expectations of a further OPEC+ production hike. However, they were still up on the day as well as for the entire month.

Nikkei sank overnight, after a near 2% rise the day before. Investors were also worried about Japan's high debt levels in the wake of a disappointing 40-year bond sale this week and tariffs.

The yen gained as much as 2 percent from its Thursday low and was trading at less than 144 dollars per yen in London. The euro and the pound both fell 0.3% and 0.1% to $1.13 and $1.3 respectively.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.2% in Asia. Apple suppliers were also hit by the U.S. reversal of tariffs. Blue chips on the mainland also fell 0.5%, despite both posting solid gains for the month. Korean stocks performed even better than the world index, achieving their best month in November 2023.

In the meantime, an index that tracks emerging market currencies has gained 2% in a month. This is the best performance since November 2023. Gold prices on the rise have helped Ghana cedi to rocket by nearly 40% in this month.

Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at National Australia Bank. He said that Trump's trade agenda was still alive and well, but the legal battle added yet another layer to uncertainty.

He said, "The only thing more certain than more uncertainty is more certainty."

The Trump administration has said that despite the courtroom dramas, negotiations with the top trading partners are continuing apace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in an interview that he would be meeting with a high level Japanese delegation on Friday evening in Washington. However, he admitted that talks with China had "a little stalled".

(source: Reuters)