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Investors consider tariff truce as shares rise and dollar falls

The dollar shook on Wednesday as the relatively benign U.S. data on inflation kept the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year alive. Investors were still trying to gauge if the worst trade conflict was over.

Financial markets were nervous as Donald Trump's trade war with China appeared to be on hold, following a truce between the two countries.

Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said: "I am a bit cautious about chasing this rally at this level."

The worst-case scenario is already priced in.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 1.1% after U.S. shares climbed into positive territory for the entire year, wiping out losses caused by Trump's chaotic tariff rollout.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 1.4% after JD.com, a Chinese ecommerce retailer, posted positive results. This week, investors will focus on the earnings of Tencent and Alibaba.

Equity futures predicted a retreat in European markets, and a flat Wall Street day.

Investors who were worried about inflationary impacts of U.S. Tariff Policies, which severely undermined expectations of Fed rate reductions in the near future, also found some relief from data overnight that showed softer than expected U.S. Consumer inflation.

Although traders expect the inflation rate to rise as tariffs increase import costs, there is still uncertainty about the future as Washington continues to negotiate with its trading partners.

The global mood improved after the U.S.-Britain trade agreement last week. It was further improved when U.S.-China announced on Monday that they would suspend their trade war, reduce reciprocal duties, and remove other measures, while they negotiate a permanent arrangement.

In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Trump said he would be willing to deal directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the details of a new trade agreement. The "potential" deals that Trump has been touting with India, Japan and South Korea have not yet materialized.

"We still have a deadline of 90 days hanging over U.S. China trade relations," Frederic Neumann said, chief Asia economist for HSBC.

He added that investors are not taking risks again due to the lingering uncertainty.

The Fed warned of increasing economic uncertainty and indicated it was prepared to wait a while to evaluate the impact of U.S. Tariffs before cutting interest rates.

The U.S. Dollar, which has been hammered recently due to economic and political uncertainty, fell 0.4% to 146.88 yen and was barely changed at $1.1189 against the Euro. The dollar index had little change after the previous session's 0.8% decline.

Bank of America's Global Fund Manager Survey showed that in May, global asset managers had their largest underweight position on the dollar in over 19 years.

The Nikkei 225 index of Japan fell 0.4% on Tuesday, reversing a 1.4% gain.

Retail sales for April, due Thursday, will be the next big indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. On the same day, Russia and Ukraine will hold talks in Istanbul in hopes of reaching a ceasefire after three years in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two.

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) revealed on Tuesday that global asset managers had their largest underweight position against the dollar in nearly 19 years as Trump’s trade policy reduced investor appetite for U.S.-based assets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 4.4768.

U.S. crude oil fell 0.5% to $63.35 per barrel, remaining near its two-week high. Gold spot was down slightly at $3222.08 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)