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Stocks rally in relief after Trump's tariff pause

On Thursday, global shares surged after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would temporarily reduce the heavy duties he just imposed on several countries.

In a shocking reversal, Trump announced on Wednesday that he would pause many of his new tariffs for 90 days following a market crash which erased trillions from global stocks.

George Lagarias is the chief economist of Forvis Mazars. He said, "You have had a relief rally since realising that the market pressure resonates with President Obama."

Lagarias said, "The main takeaway is that there will be limits and thresholds which he (Trump), will probably respect."

Trump's reversal has pushed stocks higher around the world, beginning with a 9.5% rise in the S&P 500 index on Wednesday.

The European stock market is following suit. The STOXX 600, the pan-continental index of global stocks, is up 5.3% and on course to its largest one-day increase since March 2020.

The major indexes of London, Paris, and Frankfurt have risen between 4.1% to 5.6%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 8% while a broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan gained 4.4%.

Wall Street futures have taken a break after the rally as investors try to understand the economic policies of the U.S. government.

The world's political and financial leaders are looking with horror and not amusement at a government that prioritizes the signing of a executive order to increase the water power in shower heads on the day the bond market crashes and investors doubt the long-term credibility of the administration after it has flipped-flopped the biggest of its policies, tariffs," Martin Whetton said, Westpac's head of financial markets.

Nasdaq Futures dropped 2%, while S&P500 futures declined 1.7%.

In the Wednesday cash session, both indexes posted their largest daily percentage gains for more than a decade.

The dollar fell around 0.9% against the Swiss franc and the yen, not sustaining its previous jump.

Khoon Goh is the head of Asia Research at ANZ. He said: "I believe the initial move was simply massive short covering, and this gave the world a little breathing space. Except for China...because markets started to price the worst-case scenarios."

Trump's decision to reverse the tariffs on specific countries is not final. The White House announced that a 10% blanket duty will continue to be applied to almost all U.S. imported goods. This announcement does not seem to affect existing duties on steel, aluminium and autos.

He said he would also increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which came into effect Wednesday.

China raised the additional duties on American goods to 84% on Wednesday and imposed restrictions against 18 U.S. firms, mostly in defense-related industries.

Investors, however, have a limited view of the latest escalation in Sino-U.S. Trade tensions. They are focusing on the 90-day window Trump granted to dozens countries.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2%, while China's CSI300 blue chip index rose by 1.3%.

Wong Kok Hoong is the head of Maybank's equity sales trading.

The China + 1 route is still intact. "As the tariffs on the rest of world are 10% for 90 days and companies/businesses will have the time to adjust their supply chain routes."

The onshore yuan is still at its lowest level since December 2007, 7.3518 dollars.

The People's Bank of China set the midpoint, or the rate at which the yuan can trade within a 2% range, prior to the market opening. This is the lowest since September 11, 2023.

BONDS SALE

The steep drop in U.S. bond prices this week showed signs of slowing down on Thursday.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped by 10 basis points to 4.2985% after reaching a high of 5.150% the previous session.

Fears of fragility on the world's largest bond market were reignited by a violent U.S. Treasury sale in previous sessions. The "sprint for cash" reminiscent of the COVID era had rekindled fears.

Lagarias, a Forvis Mazars analyst, said: "It is sensible to discount risk assets in the United States by a certain amount."

German Bunds, the only safe haven on the bond market, were sold off Thursday. The 10-year yield rose 8 basis points to 2.659%, while the 2-year rate rose 14 basis points to 1.855%.

Investors worried about the continuing growth shock caused by the worsening Sino/U.S. Trade War, drove oil prices down elsewhere. Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $63.97 a barrel while U.S. Crude dropped 2.2% to $60.95.

Spot gold continued to climb, and it was up by 0.9% last at $3.109 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)