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US assets are battered by trade war as'sell America trade' is intensified

The latest trade war escalation between the United States of America and China has shook the global markets on Wednesday. Investors have dumped bonds, stocks and the dollar.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump's 104% tariffs against China went into effect. Beijing responded with 84% duties on U.S. imported goods.

According to George Saravelos, head of Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research, the seemingly wholesale withdrawal of Treasuries from the market and the dollar as the "backbone" of the global financial systems could be indicative of a general decline in investor interest in holding U.S. assets and the end of an era.

We are seeing a simultaneous fall in the value of all U.S. assets, including stocks, dollar against alternative reserve FXs and the bond markets. He said that we are entering uncharted waters in the global financial systems.

The markets have been roiled by a crisis of unprecedented volatility this week, with stocks losing trillions in value and commodities and emerging market markets being hit hard.

Many fear that Trump's tariffs are so severe they will trigger a recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. So, many sold their Treasury holdings and drove up yields when bond prices fell.

Investors rushed to gold and Swiss francs, which accelerated the flight away from industrial commodities and stocks.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield rose almost 20 basis points in one day to 4.456%. This brings its increase over the past three days up to 40 bps. It is the fastest rise in 25 years.

Chris Beauchamp is the chief strategist of IG. He said: "Last weekend was a story about equity, but as always, we've moved on to the bond story, which is more important." This is the financial plumbing, and the plumbing has clearly begun to seize-up.

The auction of 10-year notes, which followed a disappointing three-year note sale the previous day, could add to the pressure. It would be a litmus test for investor appetite towards U.S. Government debt.

The ING economists said that "this seemingly'sell America trade' is now dominating the theme of rising recession risks that would normally have pushed yields downward."

COSTLY "GAME OF CHICKEN"

Financial markets have been shook by the volatility caused by the shifting headlines about tariffs, and the threat of a long-term trade war between two of the world's largest economies.

S&P 500 index experienced one of the largest reversals since at least 50 years. The benchmark index lost 4.2 percentage points on Tuesday, from a positive beginning to a negative end. The S&P 500 index has lost $5.8 billion in stock market values, which is the largest four-day decline since the index was founded in the 1950s.

This week, the VIX index (a measure of stock volatility) reached its highest level since August.

The STOXX 600 in Europe fell by nearly 4.5%. This brings the total loss of market capitalisation from April 1, the day Trump announced his tariffs, to $1.5 trillion.

U.S. Stock Futures are down nearly 2%.

Analysts at JPMorgan thought that the rapid escalation of U.S. Tariffs against China would be disruptive enough to send the global economy into a recession.

In a client note, they stated that "given the import bill from China the China tariff is equivalent to a whopping tax hike of $400 billion on U.S. businesses and households." The currency will likely be used as a release valve by China's policymakers.

The dollar fell 1.3% to 145.45 Japanese yen, and 0.8% to 0.84 Swiss Francs.

Oil prices fell 6%, to less than $60 per barrel. Concerns over the future of global energy demand overshadowed any geopolitical concerns. Gold prices rose 3%, to $3,070 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)