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Shanghai copper firms up as dollar falls
Shanghai copper prices rose on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a trade war between China and the U.S., the top metals consumer in the world, is likely to limit any further gains. As of 0342 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.6%, trading for 76,480 Yuan ($10 494) per ton. London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Dollar plunged Monday, as investor confidence in U.S. economics took another hit due to President Donald Trump’s plans to shake-up the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately on Monday, China warned against striking an economic deal with the United States that would be at its expense. It was ratcheting its rhetoric up in the spiralling trade conflict between the two largest economies of the world. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.7%, to 19,840 Chinese yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.98% to 22,230 yuan; lead, up 0.7%, to 16,930 Yuan; tin, up 1.2%, to 259,000 yuan; and nickel, up 0.4%, to 126.120 Yuan. $1 = 7.2876 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sherry J. Phillips, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Gold soars at record high due to trade war fears and weaker dollar
Gold prices soared to record highs on Monday due to concerns about global economic growth caused by the spiraling Sino-U.S. Trade War. A weaker dollar also boosted the rally. As of 0246 GMT the spot gold price had risen 1.7%, to $3383.87 per ounce, after reaching a session high of $3384 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2% to $3 396.10. Dollar index hits three-year low making gold more appealing for holders of other currencies. "Markets are pricing in heightened risks due to U.S. trade tensions, stagflation fears, and resilient central bank demand," said IG's market strategist Yeap Jun-Rong. On April 2, U.S. president Donald Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens countries. While his administration has paused levies on some countries, they have escalated their trade battle with China. China warned other countries on Monday against signing a wider economic agreement with the United States, which Trump is said to be seeking. Trump's team is evaluating the possibility of firing Powell. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other on the geopolitical stage of thousands of attacks which violated the ceasefire of one day declared by President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has said that there was no order for the frontline fighting to be extended. The safe haven bullion is in good hands. Rong stated that the next possible milestone for gold would be at the $3,500 mark. However, positioning could appear crowded near term, and technical indicators indicate near-term conditions of overboughtness. Silver spot rose 0.3%, to $32.66 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3%, to $969.68. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to $959.43. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Mukherjee and Anushree Choubey in Bengaluru, and Sumana D'Souza and Savio d'Souza).
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Shanghai copper prices rise on Dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices rose slightly on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a continuing trade tension between the U.S., which is the world's largest metals consumer, and China was likely to limit any further gains. As of 1400 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.2%, trading for 76150 yuan per ton ($10,443.38). London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Investor confidence in the U.S. economic system took a further hit as a result of President Donald Trump's plans for a shake-up at the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately China stated that it respected all parties who resolved economic and trade disputes with the United States by consultation on equal footing but will firmly oppose anyone striking a deal on China's cost, its Commerce Ministry announced on Monday. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.2%, to 19,740 Yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.7% to 22,180 Yuan; lead, up 0.4%, to 16,880 Yuan; tin, up 0.6%, to 258,280 Yan, and nickel, down 0.2%, to 125420 Yuan.
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Indians suffer from respiratory problems and skin rashes after living in the world's worst polluted city
Sumaiya Ansari was suffering from breathing difficulties for several days prior to being hospitalized in March. She was given oxygen support. Doctors say that her illness is likely caused by high pollution levels. According to IQAir's estimates, Byrnihat’s average annual PM2.5 concentration was 128.2 milligrams per cubic meter in 2024, which is over 25 times higher than the WHO recommended level. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases, including heart problems. Abdul Halim, Ansari’s father, said, "It was scary. She was breathing like fish." He brought Ansari home after two days in the hospital. According to data from the government, respiratory infections cases in the region increased to 3,681 by 2024, up from 2,082 in 2012. Dr. J Marak, of Byrnihat Primary Healthcare Centre, said that 90% of the patients he sees daily have a cough and/or other respiratory problems. Residents report that the toxic air causes skin rashes, eye irritations, damages crops and prevents them from doing routine tasks such as drying their laundry outside. Dildar Hussain, a farmer, said: "Everything has been covered in dust or soot." Critics claim that Byrnihat's pollution problem is indicative of a larger trend that affects not only India's major cities but also the Capitalism As industrialisation accelerates, environmental protections are being eroded. Government data shows that the air quality in Byrnihat remains poor throughout the year. Experts say that the pollution problem in this town is worsened by the fact that it has a "bowl-shaped" topography and 80 industries, many of which are highly polluting. Arup Misra, the chairman of Assam’s pollution control board, said that the terrain between Meghalaya's hills and Assam’s plains is too narrow for pollutants to spread. A Meghalaya official, who declined to be identified, stated that the town's geographical location made it harder to find a solution, as both states shifted blame between themselves. Assam, Meghalaya and IQAir have formed a joint committee to fight the pollution in Byrnihat. (Reporting and writing by Tora Aggarwala, Sakshi Dayal and Raju Gopalakrishnan; editing by Raju Gopi Krishnan)
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Progress in US-Iran negotiations eases supply concerns, lowering oil prices
The oil prices dropped by about 1% after the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States progressed. This eased concerns that this dispute would reduce the supply of the Middle Eastern major producer. Brent crude futures fell 70 cents or 1.03% to $67.26 per barrel at 0030 GMT, after closing 3.2% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $64, down 68 cents or 1.05% after closing up 3.54% the previous session. Last week, Thursday was the final settlement day due to the Good Friday holiday. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the U.S. had agreed to start drafting a framework for any potential nuclear deal with Iran on Saturday, following talks described by a U.S. government official as "very positive progress." Progress in the nuclear talks follows the U.S. imposing further sanctions last week. These included sanctions against a teapot oil refinery based in China, which it claims processed Iranian crude. This increased pressure on Tehran during the discussions. Teapot is the industry term for smaller independent processors. Brent and WTI both gained about 5% in the last week due to concerns about the tightening of Iranian oil supplies and hopes for an agreement between the United States, and the European Union. This was their first weekly increase in three weeks. Separately, Russia, Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin blamed each for breaking the one-day ceasefire declared on Easter Sunday by the Russian president. Both sides accused the other of hundreds attacks, and the Kremlin said there was never an order to extend the ceasefire. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Interfax reports that the Russian economy ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%.
Interfax reported on Monday morning that the Russian economy ministry had reduced its forecast of the average price for Brent crude in 2025 from the amount it thought the price would be in September by almost 17%. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the average price of Brent is expected to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in the September forecasts. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price of Urals, Russia’s main blend, is $56 per barrel, compared to the $69.7 per barrelle on which Russia based its budget for 2025. The agency quoted a ministry representative as saying, "We think that this is an estimate which is fairly conservative." Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be slightly stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94,3 roubles for every dollar, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5.
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Severe weather strikes the Midwest and South of the US, killing two people in Oklahoma
Police said that at least two people including a child died after their vehicle became stranded on flood waters in Oklahoma, during the Easter weekend, when severe weather and flooding affected parts of the U.S. South, Midwest and Midwest. In a press release, police in Moore (Oklahoma), about 11 miles south-southeast of Oklahoma City, stated that the weather was "historic". "One (of the vehicles) was swept underneath the bridge. All but two of the occupants were saved at the time. "It is with deep sadness that we announce that two people, an adult male and a 12-year old boy, were found dead later," the statement said. The police in Moore, Oklahoma have urged residents to stay home. They responded late Saturday to more than a dozen calls by residents who were stuck in their vehicles because of high water. Oklahoma was covered by flood warnings that indicate a flood may be imminent or has already occurred. National Weather Service stated on Sunday that severe thunderstorms are expected to occur from east Texas through far southeast Iowa, Illinois and into central Arkansas. A strong tornado with damaging winds is also possible from central Arkansas and central Missouri. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for certain parts of Arkansas and Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Oklahoma. A deadly spring storm that swept across the U.S. from Texas to Ohio caused tornadoes, heavy rains, and even a few deaths in the South and Midwest. (Reporting and editing by Mary Milliken, Chris Reese and Kanishka Singh from Washington)
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Russia-Ukraine War: US welcomes extension of ceasefire
The U.S. State Department announced on Sunday that it would be happy to see the one-day ceasefire declared by Russian president Vladimir Putin for Easter extended beyond Sunday, despite the Kremlin's earlier statement that there had been no extension order. Both Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Putin declared a ceasefire for one day in Ukraine, until Sunday midnight Moscow time (2100 GMT). KEY QUOTES "We've seen that President Putin announced a temporary truce due to Easter. In an email statement sent on Sunday, a spokesperson for the State Department said that they remain committed to achieving full and comprehensive peace. As we evaluate their seriousness, we welcome the extension of this punishment beyond Sunday. Why it's important U.S. president Donald Trump Has repeatedly warned about the risk of escalation in the three-year old war that was started by Russia's full scale invasion of its neighbor, and has said he wants the war to end. The U.S. secretary of state has said that the war should be ended. Marco Rubio Washington said that it will abandon efforts to broker a deal for peace if there are no clear signs of progress in the near future. Trump announced that he would sign a mineral deal with Kyiv within a week after the U.S.A. and Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Thursday. A failed attempt in February was the result of Zelenskiy and Trump's clash in the Oval Office. CONTEXT Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said that Russia pretended to respect the Easter ceasefire but in reality, it had continued hundreds of artillery assaults Saturday night and more on Sunday. Russia's Defence Ministry claimed that Ukraine violated the ceasefire and caused damage to civilians and infrastructure. Putin wants Ukraine to give up its NATO ambitions and permanently cede the four lost regions to Russia. He also wants to limit its army size. Kyiv claims that these demands amount to a demand for its capitulation.
Stocks fall as US inflation worries add to trade war concerns
Wall Street was set to continue its recent losses in world stocks, while gold, a safe haven asset, reached another record on Friday as Donald Trump's latest tariff salvo fueled fears of a full-blown trade war.
The latest inflation figures were a source of frustration for U.S. traders, but Trump's 25% auto import tariffs and his plans to impose even more levies in the coming week continued to be a cause for concern.
S&P futures were lower. Europe's STOXX 600 was on track for a weekly decline of 1% thanks to a drop of 2% in the auto and parts sector. Japan and Korea, home to giants such as Toyota Honda and Hyundai, both fell roughly 2% over night.
Michael Metcalfe, State Street's global macro strategy head, said that the U.S. auto tariffs were more aggressive than anticipated. This is especially true since Washington's neighbors like Mexico and Canada have not been adjusted.
Metcalfe stated, "I don't know if the hawkishness in the auto tariffs will translate into the broader tariffs we are going get next week." "And this is keeping the risk appetite on the backfoot."
On currency markets, the U.S. dollar has been moving sideways since core U.S. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of prices, Personal Consumption Spending data, increased at a faster rate than the 0.4% monthly increase.
Daniela Sabin-Hathorn, of Capital.com, said that the unexpected rise in core inflation indicates persistent price pressures. "Especially because the full impact is unlikely to be reflected in the data just yet.
Quarter Back
Many analysts predicted that the dollar would perform well this year because of Trump's "America First". The dollar has had a very bad start to the year, and is currently at its lowest level since the global financial crisis of 2008.
The greenback has struggled, and the euro has benefited from this. The euro slipped to $1.077 as German consumer confidence data revealed the uncertainty in Europe's biggest economy. However, it is still higher than the previous year.
The yen was slightly stronger at 150.5 dollars. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates again, which will help it achieve a gain of nearly 4% in the next quarter.
These expectations were reinforced on Friday when data revealed that core consumer inflation in Tokyo increased in March.
The money markets increased their bets for future rate cuts by the European Central Bank due to tariff tensions and after March's inflation data in France and Spain was lower than expected.
Traders see 80% of a ECB 25-basis point (bps) rate cut in April, up from 50% a week earlier. German Bund yields
It seems likely that the ECB's conclusion that downside risks are manifesting from escalating tensions in trade is correct, said Christoph Rieger a Strategist at Commerzbank.
PUNCTURED
Wall Street was preparing for a lower opening after the inflation data.
Volvo, Volkswagen Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Hyundai, among others, have already announced that they will move portions of their production to avoid Trump's tariffs. Ferrari, which manufactures all its cars in Italy said that it would increase prices by as much as 10% on certain models.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell overnight as traders awaited clarity about Trump's China tariffs.
He said he was willing to lower the tariffs for Beijing in order to reach a deal with ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok to sell the app. Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are the focus of attention. He is expected to announce them on April 2, which he has called "Liberation Day".
"It's not surprising that the tariff talks are causing another round of risk off," said Thierry Witzman, global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie. He added that tariffs are likely to be both "growth-restraining and inflation-producing".
Oil prices in commodities were flat, as traders weighed the tightening crude supply and new U.S. Tariffs on their impact on the global economy.
Brent crude futures are at $74 per barrel, an increase of more than 2% over the past week.
The gold price has reached a new high as the trade war threat drives investors to the metal of safety. After the gains of the day, it is now at $3.065 an ounce. It is up over 17% for the quarter, its best performance since 1986.
Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "Continued demand for haven assets, combined with central bank purchases by EMs in an attempt to diversify FX reserve, makes for a compelling bull case."
(source: Reuters)