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Russell: Asia's declining crude oil imports will challenge demand estimates for 2025

Asia's crude imports have a weak start for 2025 as the continent's largest supplier, Russia, is slowed by new sanctions and China's continued decline in purchasing.

According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia's imports are expected to reach 26.17 millions barrels per day in the first two month of this year. This is down by 780,000 barrels per days from 26.96million bpd during the same period last.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) forecast of a solid growth in demand this year is now in doubt after the drop of 3% in crude oil imports in Asia during the first two month of 2019.

China was the main driver of the decline in Asia's crude oil imports during the period January-February. The world's largest oil importer saw arrivals of 10,42 million bpd in this period, down from 11,26 million bpd in the first two months in 2024.

In the first two months 2025, the decline in China's crude oil imports has accelerated from the rate of decline in 2024.

According to official data from customs, China's oil imports in 2024 will be 11.04 million barrels per day (bpd), a decrease of 210,000 bpd or 2.1% compared to the previous year.

Property construction is a major weak sector in the world's second largest economy.

The rapid adoption of trucks that run on liquefied gas has led to a decrease in diesel demand.

OPEC's February monthly report predicted that China's demand for crude oil would rise by 310,000 bpd from last year in 2025, but the slow start of imports during the first two months makes this seem optimistic.

INDIA STRENGTH

India, Asia's largest oil importer, has had a strong start to 2025. Arrivals of 4,98 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first two month were up by 280,000 bpd compared to the 4,70 million bpd during the same period in 2017.

It's important to note that India's January imports were 5,08 million bpd and that these fell to 4,87 million bpd by February. This shows that India was struggling to secure the same amount of discounted Russian oil that it had over 2024.

In January, the outgoing administration under former U.S. president Joe Biden introduced new restrictions on Russia's oil imports. These sanctions primarily targeted the shadow fleet of crude tankers that transport crude to India or China, which are the two remaining major buyers of Russian oil.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's imports seaborne Russian crude will fall to their lowest level in February since 2022.

In February, a total of 67.2 millions barrels of Russian oil, or 2.40 million bpd is expected to arrive. This is down from 2.75million bpd imported in January, and only half the 3.97million bpd peak imports in May 2023.

Asia's imports will have fallen for the fourth consecutive month in January, showing that Western sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 are working.

It is possible that Asia's imports will increase in the coming months. This could be because traders are able to find ways around sanctions, as they have in the past. Or, if the new U.S. president Donald Trump eases sanctions in an effort to end the conflict with Ukraine.

The question remains, however, whether Asia's crude imports are strong enough to meet forecasts of rising demand in this year.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)