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Rate-cut hopes fulfill Mid-East threats

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and worldwide markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

Not for the first time, financial markets are advised why it's never ever an excellent concept to get too far ahead.

So, while Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's much-awaited Jackson Hole speech on Friday fueled the rate-cut optimism that has helped stocks' recovery from the early-August rout, the newest Middle East news highlights the need for caution.

Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday, as Israel's military said it struck Lebanon with around 100 jets to prevent a bigger attack, in one of the biggest clashes in more than 10 months of border warfare.

Any significant spillover in the fighting, which started in parallel with the war in Gaza practically a year back, dangers changing into a. regional blaze drawing in Hezbollah's backer Iran and. Israel's primary ally the United States.

Iran's foreign minister was reported stating the country does. not look for to increase Middle East stress. Still, an increase of more. than 1% in oil rates recommends some anxiousness amongst financiers that. regional oil products might face interruption.

A complete read out of the mood music is tough with London. markets closed for a public vacation.

Still, European shares are flat, as are U.S. stock. futures, while Japan's blue-chip Nikkei closed. the Asia session down practically 0.7%.

JACKSON HOLE

The more hesitant tone in world markets follows a fresh. surge in optimism that a U.S. rate cutting cycle is most likely to. begin in September.

In highly expected remarks before the Jackson Hole. Economic Symposium, Fed manager Powell said the time has actually come to. lower the Fed funds target rate, and the advantage risks of. inflation have lessened.

For sure, the data-dependent Fed will have a raft of. economic indications to consider ahead of its September meeting,. including today's revised second-quarter GDP and the. broad-ranging Personal Intake Expenses (PCE) report,. which includes the Fed's preferred inflation yardstick, the PCE. price index.

However these would have to provide major surprises to shake the. market's view that a rate decrease-- of a minimum of 25 basis. points-- is coming.

Likewise speaking at Jackson Hole, European Reserve bank chief. financial expert Philip Lane struck a more careful note at the. weekend, stating the reserve bank was making good development in. cutting euro zone inflation back to its 2% target however success is. not yet ensured.

All this has left the dollar languishing at three-week lows. versus the yen. The euro and British pound were a little bit. lower on the day however holding near multi-month peaks struck versus. the greenback on Friday.

Key advancements that must supply more instructions to U.S. markets later Monday:

* German August Ifo index falls in August.

* U.S. July long lasting items due out.

(source: Reuters)