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Dollar and shares tumble as Trump tariffs cause recession fears
The stock market limped into the weekend on Friday. The dollar was headed for its worst month-end in a while, and gold flirted near a record high as investors worried that U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs could tip the global economic system into recession. Asian shares have struggled to recover the heavy losses of Thursday's session. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.85%. This is a continuation of its 2.8% decline from last Thursday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.26% on thin trading, as markets in China Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for the holiday. Overnight, the S&P 500 lost $2.4 trillion, which is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus outbreak on March 16, 2020. Other Wall Street indexes also saw sharp drops. Investors rushed to safety assets after Trump announced Washington's highest trade barriers in over 100 years on Wednesday. David Bahnsen is the chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group. He said that if tariffs remain unchanged, a recession in Q2 or Q3 is possible as well as a bear market. The question is whether President Trump wants to take these policies off the table if we experience a stock market bear market. We think Trump will pivot and focus on companies making significant investments in America, but it is unclear if that would change the market sentiment. U.S. Stock Futures stabilized during the early Asian session. Nasdaq futures rose 0.05% while S&P500 futures declined 0.06%. In response to the increased fears of a global economic recession, especially in the United States of America, traders have stepped up their bets on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. They believe that policymakers will have to ease up more aggressively in order to boost growth in the largest economy in the world. Fed funds futures point to a roughly 96 basis point reduction by December. This was closer to 70 bps just before Trump announced his tariffs on Wednesday. David Doyle, Macquarie Group's head of economics, said that central banks were not equipped to handle stagflation because the effects of lower growth and higher inflation push policy in opposite directions. This means that a stronger core inflation will likely limit the extent of the Fed's policy response due to the headwinds for growth created." Investors will be watching for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. They are interested in his assessment of the U.S. economic situation and the outlook on policy following Trump's latest tariff salvo. The dollar rose 0.09% to 146.23 yen on the foreign exchange markets, after falling 2.2% the previous day, its steepest drop in over two years. The euro remained at $1.1043 following a 1.9% increase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc was last at $0.8591 after also gaining 2.6% on that day. The dollar was at 102.04 against a basket. This is a new six-month low. The U.S. Dollar has been weakening this year due to a combination of heavy long positions built up at the end of last year and the renewed focus on U.S. economic growth risks, which have accompanied the tariff talks for weeks. Bond prices have also soared as investors flee to safe assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield, which had fallen by 14 basis points in the previous session, was little changed last week at 4.0436%. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices. Spot gold, meanwhile, was nearing a record high of $3,112,81 per ounce and on course for a fifth consecutive weekly gain as concerns about the impact Trump's tariffs would have on the global economic system boosted its appeal as a safe-haven metal. Brent crude futures were down 0.13% to $70.05 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped 0.15% at $66.85 a barrel.
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Mexico's 'cool-headed approach' to Trump's Tariffs has paid off
Mexico's "coolheaded" approach towards U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff offense has paid off with preferential treatment and a strong working relationship with Trump's trade team this week, Mexico's deputy economic secretary said on Thursday. Luis Rosendo Gutierrez said that the undersecretary of international trade for Mexico, Luis Rosendo Gutierrez stated in an interview, that Mexican officials would meet with U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week to discuss U.S. Tariffs on Auto Imports, Steel and Aluminum, and their state. The U.S., Mexico and Canada Agreement (which has been in place for nearly five years) will also be reviewed. Gutierrez stated that "the instruction from President Claudia Sheinbaum is to work closely with the United States Government looking for fair and preferential treatments, and be cool-headed in doing so." "I think this strategy was the best. "To be close, constructive and to make proposals to the United States." Mexico and Canada largely avoided Trump's 10% global baseline tariff on Wednesday, as well as the steeper "reciprocal" tariffs for many trading partners. Mexico still faces a 25% tariff on fentanyl, but the exemption for USMCA compliant goods has been extended indefinitely. If the fentanyl issue is resolved, these tariffs will fall to 12%. Mexico is still subject to separate 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts, but without U.S. content. And 25% duties on steel imports. Mexico, unlike Canada, has not taken retaliatory actions against U.S. imports as part of the trade dispute. Instead, it prefers to engage in a more constructive dialogue. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures to about $25 billion of U.S. imported goods. Gutierrez stated, "We would love to see these tariffs reduced." "We need to negotiate in order to try and improve conditions not only for Mexico but also for the United States. This idea will be complementary to our economies." He said that at the meetings next week, Mexican officials will bring up USMCA letters that were agreed upon by Trump's previous administration. These side letters granted Mexico and Canada generous duty-free auto import quotas in case Section 232 tariffs on automobiles are imposed. Trump's administration does not plan to honor its commitments. (Reporting and editing by Sandra Maler, Chris Reese and David Lawder)
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Prince William of the UK takes his Earthshot Prize on a trip to Brazil
Prince William of Britain announced on Friday, in the presence of celebrities and soccer players, that he will take his annual award ceremony for a multi-million dollar prize for environmental protection to Brazil this coming year. In 2020, the heir to the throne announced the Earthshot Prize with the goal of making significant progress towards solving environmental problems in a decade. The "moonshot project" of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy, which led to 1969's lunar landing, is a nod to this award, which seeks to find innovative solutions to climate change and other environmental issues. Five winners will receive 1 million pounds ($1.3million) each for their projects. The awards ceremony for this year will take place shortly before the UN Climate Summit COP30, which is also taking place in Brazil in Nov. William announced in a video that accompanied the announcement, "I am pleased to announce that we will be in Brazil by 2025." "We need to be optimistic now more than ever. I think Brazil is the perfect example of that. I can't even believe we have reached half-way in 10 years." The previous award ceremonies were held in London and Boston. They were supported by philanthropists and global organisations. The Earthshot video also featured the actress Cate Blankhett, the model Heidi Klum and Brazil's most-capped soccer player Cafu. Beckham stated, "I am so, so excited about (Brazil), where nature and culture are intertwined." (Reporting and editing by William James; Michael Holden)
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Elliott says Phillips 66 shares could reach $200 if there are changes
Elliott Investment Management stated on Thursday that Phillips 66 stock could almost double to $200 if it sold or spun off its midstream businesses, and focused more on refining. The activist investor who owns a stake of $2.5 billion in the company has also reduced the number to four directors that it intends to nominate for the board. Previously, the number was seven. Phillips 66, in a letter to shareholders published in a regulatory filing on Thursday, wrote: "With resolute action and decisive actions, Phillips 66 will deliver much greater returns to its shareholders than they have in the past decade." The hedge fund said that "sweeping changes" are also needed to the company’s structure, operations and board. Elliott nominated 7 director candidates for the board at the beginning of March, but had planned to reduce that number to 4, according to a person with knowledge in the matter. Investors will vote for directors on the 21st of May unless both sides come to an agreement prior. Candidates include former ConocoPhillips executives Sigmund and Brian Coffman; Michael Heim, founder of midstream operator Targa Resources, and Stacy Nieuwoudt. Nieuwoudt was a former energy consultant at Citadel. Elliott stated that new independent directors were needed to oversee management better and to persuade BP to sell or spin off its midstream business in order to concentrate on refining. The company has also been criticized for its governance in which not all directors are elected annually. The company refused to comment. Phillips 66's shares closed at $107.18, down 13.6% after a widespread sell-off on Wall Street. The company now has a $43.7 billion market value. Elliott reiterated his long-held opinion that the midstream business should be spun off or sold. The letter also suggested that retail operations in Europe and its interest in CPChem (a joint venture between Chevron and CPChem) should be sold. Elliott is fighting Phillips 66 for the second time after pushing for strategic improvements late in 2023. The hedge fund approved the appointment of Robert Pease as a director to the company's board in early 2024. The tensions between the activist investor and the director have now escalated after Pease, in a letter sent to shareholders last Thursday, defended the performance of the company and referred to Elliott's actions as "inconsistent" and "peculiar." The hedge fund wants to replace him by the candidates that it nominated in this year. In a letter sent to its shareholders on Thursday, Elliott said that it was confused after Pease failed to follow the best governance practices he had promised the hedge fund. It said that it had been patient with Phillips 66, and only approached the company anew after failing to see "demonstrable improvements." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Vallari Srivastava, both in New York; editing by Shrey Biswas and Jamie Freed
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Dollar falls amid Trump tariffs, as fears of recession fuel US stock market decline
The dollar fell on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs caused investors to flee for safe havens like bonds and yen. S&P 500 companies have lost $2.4 trillion combined in market value. This is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus pandemic began on March 16, 2019. Nasdaq composite index led declines Wall Street ended the day with a 5.97% decline, its largest daily drop since March 2020. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted their largest daily percentage drops since June 2020. The new 10% baseline tariff on imported products and the retaliatory tariffs that Trump imposed on dozens countries with unfair trade barriers shook traders. Investors are concerned that a full-blown dispute over trade could lead to a global economic slowdown, and even inflation. The latest round of U.S. tariffs has hit a world economy still recovering from the inflation spike after the pandemic and dealing with geopolitical tensions. Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel, Charlottesville, Virginia, said: "Markets plunged today. I view it as an almost complete reset of how investors will think going forward." The market is lowering expectations for revenue and earnings in the U.S. and around the world. The market reflects reduced growth, decreased earnings, and reduced revenue. Apple shares fell by 9.2% due to the tariffs imposed on China, where the company does most of its manufacturing. Amazon.com fell 9%, Microsoft dropped 2.4%, while Nvidia dropped 7.8%. The S&P 500 Technology index dropped 6.9%. S&P 500's energy sector fell 7.5% with oil prices dropping more than 6% in a single day. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s Fear Gauge, has risen to 30,02, its highest level since August 5, 2020. The Dow dropped 1,679.39, or 3.98% to 40,545.93. The S&P 500 fell 274.45, or 4.84% to 5,396.52 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1,050.44 or 5.97% to 16,550.61. MSCI's global stock index fell 28.47, or 3.41% to 807.64. This was its largest daily percentage drop since June 2022. U.S. dollar Also, the dollar weakened dramatically. The dollar dropped 1.95% to 146.445 Japanese yen and fell 2.35% to the Swiss franc. RECIPROCAL LEVY The 27-country EU block in Europe now faces a reciprocal 20% levy. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 2.57%. Trump's tariffs were particularly harsh on Asia. China received a reciprocal tariff of 34%, Japan was hit by 24%, South Korea with 25%, and Vietnam with 46%. Nigel Green is the CEO of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm. He said: "This is what you do when you claim to supercharge the economic engine of the world." The rush to buy ultra-safe government securities that guarantee a steady income has driven down U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States fell 14.6 basis points, to 4,049%. It had previously fallen to 4.004%. This was its lowest level since November 25. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note is on course for its largest daily decline since August 2. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone fell, with Germany's 10-year bond yield, which is the benchmark for the region, reaching its lowest level since March 4. If tariffs cause recessions, the central banks of the world will likely lower interest rates. This is good for bonds. Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they could be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a moment "once in a life time" which could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1%-1.5% this year. Oil prices Dropped After Trump announced his new trade tariffs, OPEC+ agreed on a surprise production increase. Brent futures ended at $70.14 per barrel, down by $4.81 or 6.42%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures ended at $66.95 per barrel, down by $4.76 or 6.64%. Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce but then lost steam. Last, spot gold fell 0.85% to $3,106.99 per ounce.
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Exxon says higher gas and oil prices will boost profits in Q1
Exxon Mobil said on Thursday that the higher prices of crude oil, natural gas and oil refining will boost its first-quarter profits by $900 million over the previous quarter. Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. energy company, gets most of its operating profits from oil and gas production. Its earnings snapshot is closely monitored for clues as to how the industry will do when companies report quarterly results in the next few weeks. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $74.98 per barrel in the first quarter. This was up 1.3% compared to the previous quarter but down by 9% compared to a year earlier. U.S. Natural Gas prices increased 30% from the fourth quarter, due to a higher demand caused by a colder winter in the U.S. In a SEC filing, the company stated that higher oil refining margins would also boost earnings from $300 million to $700 millions compared to fourth quarter. According to estimates compiled LSEG by LSEG analysts expect Exxon will post an adjusted profit per share of $1.70 in the first three months, up from the $1.67 in the previous quarter. Exxon announced that it would announce its first-quarter results on May 2, 2018. The snapshot of earnings covers a turbulent first quarter, during which the Trump administration in the United States announced tariffs against energy imports from Canada or Mexico and then reversed them. In March, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced that it would increase oil production for the first since 2022. Exxon's earnings for the fourth quarter were $7.39 billion and the earnings for the first quarter last year were $8.22 billion. Exxon shares rose slightly in extended trading after closing 5.3% lower, tracking sharp drops in crude prices. This was after OPEC+ agreed on a surprise rise in production a day after Trump's announcement of new import tariffs. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava from Bengaluru, and Sheila Dang from Houston; editing by Shreya biswas and Jamie Freed
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The US offers billions in Congo mineral investment after tariffs
President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa revealed during a Thursday visit that the United States was in talks with Congo to invest billions in the mineral-rich country and to end a conflict that is raging there. The Democratic Republic of Congo has huge reserves of cobalt and lithium, among other minerals. It has been fighting Rwandan-backed M23 Rebels, who have taken over large areas of its territory in this year. The U.S., which on Wednesday sent shockwaves across the world by announcing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, said last month that it is open to exploring critical minerals partnerships with Congo after a Congolese senator contacted U.S. officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal. You have heard of a mineral agreement. After meeting Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, U.S. Senior Advisor Massad Boulos stated that the U.S. had reviewed the Congo proposal and "the president and I agreed on a way forward for its future development". On Thursday, the details of any possible deal or Congo's offer were not made public. The minerals of Congo, which are used to make mobile phones and electric vehicles, are currently controlled by China and Chinese mining companies. Boulos said that U.S. firms will be involved. Rest assured that American companies will operate transparently, and stimulate local economies. "These are multi-billion dollar investments," he stated. Joseph Bangakya is a Congolese MP and the president of a Congo - U.S. friendship group. He said that members were preparing legislation to improve the business climate in Central Africa. He said that achieving a trade deal with the United States was essential. Boulos said that the U.S. wanted to help bring peace to the east, where M23 has taken over two of eastern Congo's largest cities and thousands have died. He said, "We want to have a lasting peace which affirms the territorial and sovereign integrity of the DRC." "There is no economic prosperity without safety." (Written by Edward McAllister, edited by Mark Heinrich and Portia crowe)
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Canada's response to US tariffs
Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures against U.S. car tariffs. He imposed a 25% tax on vehicles imported from America that do not comply with the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Carney, the man who succeeded Justin Trudeau last month as Prime Minister, stated that new tariffs will not apply to auto components and won't affect vehicle content coming from Mexico. Carney said that the new tariffs, which are estimated at C$8 billion, before a remission procedure for tariff relief will be paid directly to autoworkers and other affected parties. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, imposed tariffs of 25% on March 6 on all goods that were not in compliance with USMCA. On March 12, he imposed tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. A 25% import tax was implemented on autos on Thursday. He spared Canada global tariffs. Here are the retaliatory actions that Canada has already taken. First, Trudeau responded to Trump's initial tariffs by imposing 25% tariffs on C$30 Billion ($20.92 Billion) worth of goods imported from the U.S. annually on March 6. The C$30billion was part of a broader retaliation strategy that targeted C$155billion worth of U.S. goods imports, although the remaining C$125billion has been delayed. The first round of retaliation includes 1,256 items, including orange juice, peanutbutter, wine, spirits and beer, coffee and other beverages, as well as apparel, footwear and motorcycles. The value of imported products is C$3.5 billion for cosmetics and skin care, C$3.4 billion for appliances and household goods, C$3 billion for pulp and paper, and C$1.8 billion in plastics. Steel and aluminum tariffs will be imposed by Canada on March 13, 2025. The additional C$29,8 billion in imports from the U.S. will receive a 25% tariff. The tariffs are expected to stay in place until U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada are eliminated. Tariffs on steel and aluminum include a variety of products, including candles, glues and umbrellas, as well as kitchenware, gold and platinum jewellery, and other items. Trudeau said Canada was also considering non-tariff retaliatory actions, which could be related to vital minerals, energy procurement or other partnerships. Carney responded on March 25, when asked if nontariff measures like export controls or export taxation were on the table. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that all U.S. companies would be prohibited from participating in government contracts. Ontario has canceled its C$100m contract with Trump's ally Elon Musk and Starlink. Canada has frozen Musk's Tesla rebate payments and barred the electric vehicle maker from participating in future EV rebates. Toronto has stopped offering financial incentives to Tesla owners who purchase vehicles as taxis or ride-sharing services due to trade tensions with America.
Where's my car, dude? Toyota hybrid buyers facing long waits
Four people with knowledge of the situation say that Toyota's gasoline/electric hybrids are in high demand, and suppliers are struggling to keep up. This has led to parts shortages and long waits for buyers.
Two people said that Toyota dealers in major markets such as the U.S.A., Japan China and Europe have low stock of hybrids. Toyota, which is the leader in hybrids, faces a major challenge from this surge in demand. It also validates the Japanese automaker’s bet in the technology, despite predictions from some competitors that battery-only vehicles would wipe hybrid demand out.
LMC Automotive's data shows that global sales of hybrids and plug-in models have nearly tripled in the last five years.
One person said that Toyota customers in Europe are currently waiting 60-70 days on average for new hybrids. This is about twice as long as it will be by 2020. Toyota says that the Yaris Cross Hybrid and RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid are the vehicles with the highest demand in Europe and the shortest supply.
A Toyota website shows that buyers in Japan wait between two and five months to receive many models.
One person reported that Prius hybrids had been sold out at a dealership on the West Coast of the United States by mid-February, and only a few Camry hybrids remained.
Another person stated that delivery times in India have improved from last year, but still range between two and nine months, depending on the model. Ten industry figures were interviewed, including Toyota employees and suppliers. They described the bottlenecks that are affecting the supply chain for hybrid vehicles. Toyota has not previously disclosed details of the parts or suppliers involved and the measures it is considering in order to relieve the pressure on one market.
Toyota stated in a press release that the demand for hybrid cars had increased "significantly" in the last year, in all regions. It was responding by increasing production. The automaker claimed to have improved its vehicle delivery lead times over the last year.
The report stated that "currently, the production capacity of hybrid parts and components at our suppliers' and in-house part manufacturing is aligned with our annual production plan and our vehicle assembly capacities."
Snarls for Supply
Some customers are frustrated by the delivery times.
Saugata Dasgupta is an Asia Development Bank executive based in New Delhi. He told us he had ordered a hybrid Toyota Innova Hycross in January 2023. He learned in August 2024 from the dealer that he would have to wait another 25-30 weeks.
Another email arrived this month: He will need to wait 15 to 25 more weeks.
Dasgupta claimed that he had given up on waiting by then and purchased a gasoline powered model from the local automaker Mahindra & Mahindra.
Two of the people who spoke to us were anonymous because they were not authorized to reveal the information.
One person said that a shortage of magnets in parts for Aisin Corp was a major problem. This person stated that Aisin, a major component maker for the Toyota Group, was unable to obtain rotors or stators from their suppliers. As a result of this, delivery of hybrid motors by Toyota was delayed. The magnets were sourced in Japan and China but the supply problem for Aisin, according to the person, was global.
Another person stated that Denso's inverters were also delayed due to bottlenecks with suppliers at the second and third tiers. Inverters are used to convert the battery current into a form that can be controlled by the motor.
Two people said that Toyota is looking at other suppliers than Denso to meet its component needs, and may even consider manufacturing inverters there.
Toyota didn't address questions about specific suppliers. Aisin Denso refused to comment. Last year, it was reported that Toyota plans to convert the majority of its line to hybrid vehicles. This could increase pressure on suppliers.
Addition of Capacity
Varinder Waddhwa is a vice-president at Toyota Kirloskar Motor in India. He said that the removal of supply chain bottlenecks has already led to "significant rationalization" in wait times.
Wadhwa stated that the company has recently increased its capacity to produce 32,000 additional vehicles per year and is investing in another 100,000 vehicles. Toyota also invested $14 billion in a battery factory in North Carolina in order to meet the demand for hybrid vehicles. It has stated that it will begin shipping batteries for North American electric vehicles in April. Toyota built hybrids in nearly half of its vehicles assembled in the U.S.
Toyota's hybrids are one of the few bright spots in China where it is facing fierce competition, such as BYD. Toyota's total sales in China fell by 7% in 2024 compared to a year ago, but sales of electrified vehicles (mostly hybrids) grew by 27%.
According to someone familiar with the situation, competitors such as Hyundai, and its Kia affiliate, are also struggling to ramp-up production of hybrids. This is primarily due to a shortage of capacity.
This month, a Hyundai dealer in Seoul stated that it would take a full year to receive the hybrid version for the Palisade SUV. Documents from Kia show that the wait time for its Carnival hybrid is 10 months and seven months for Sorento.
Hyundai has not responded to any questions regarding the current situation.
Hyundai announced in August that it will double its hybrid line-up to 14 models by 2030, to counter the slowdown of EV adoption.
Honda, another hybrid player, reported strong demand in North America and Japan but refused to provide specifics about delivery times.
Hybrids are worth the wait for some customers because of fuel savings.
Rakesh Kumar is a businessman from India's Uttar Pradesh. He finally received his Toyota Hyryder in March, nearly five months after ordering it.
He said: "We already have a hybrid in our family, and I know that it gets better mileage than any other vehicle." Aditi Shirouzu and Norihiko Shrouzu reported; additional reporting was done by Daniel Leussink and Heekyong Yah in Seoul and Hyunjoo Ji and Heekyong Jin in Tokyo; Saurabh Sharma and David Dolan edited the story.
(source: Reuters)