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Oil nears one-month high and is set to gain for a third week amid supply problems

Oil nears one-month high and is set to gain for a third week amid supply problems

The oil price eased slightly but held close to one-month highs as it headed for a second weekly gain. This was due to a tightening of global supply after the U.S. placed tariffs on countries that buy oil from Venezuela, and put curbs on Iranian crude oil trade.

Brent crude futures fell 14 cents or 0.2% to $73.89 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were down 12 Cents, or 0.2 %, to $69.80 per barrel at 0431 GMT.

Both contracts have gained over 2% this week. Since early March, they are up by more than 7%.

BMI analysts stated in a recent market commentary that the main driver behind the rally was the changing landscape of oil sanctions around the world.

On Monday, U.S. president Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs for potential buyers of Venezuelan oil. This comes days after U.S. sanctioned China's imports of Iranian crude.

The order created new uncertainty for buyers, and trade of Venezuelan crude oil to China's top buyer stalled. Sources also claim that Reliance Industries in India, the operator of the largest refining facility in the world, will stop Venezuelan oil imports.

The apparent shortage of crude oil is due to the potential loss of Venezuelan crude to the market as a result of secondary tariffs, and the possibility that the same could be imposed on Iranian crude barrels. This was stated by June Goh a senior analyst for Sparta Commodities.

The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, and the crude stock levels there have fallen more than expected.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 3.3 millions barrels, to 433.6 million in the week ending March 21. This was in contrast with the polled expectations of analysts for a 956 thousand barrel draw.

However, the global dynamics of oil trade pointed to an era of increased uncertainty as a wave of U.S. Tariffs against trading partners raises concerns of a severe economic downturn and a blow on oil demand.

Analysts do not expect the sharp rise in oil prices in this environment to continue.

The BMI analysts wrote: "While the market suffers from extreme uncertainty, we hold to our forecast that Brent crude will average $76 per bar in 2025. This is down from $80 in 2024." (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Singapore, Siyi Liu from Singapore)

(source: Reuters)