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Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Plans to Expand to 1.4 Million Bpp
Aliko Dangote, the owner of Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery, said that it plans to double its current production capacity, which is 650,000 barrels per day, to 1.4million barrels per daily over the next three-year period. The 20 billion dollar refinery outside of Lagos began operations in January of 2024, and is aimed at ending imports of refined petroleum by Africa's largest crude oil producer. The new plant capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day would be enough to process all of Nigeria's crude oil production, which is currently around 1.5 million barrels per day. Dangote said to journalists that the funding for expansion would be derived from cash flow and proceeds from an upcoming listing on the local market, as well as "one or two strategic investor that we are carrying". He said, "This expansion... is about confidence in people and leadership in our country." Dangote said that the planned listing of refinery shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange would take place in the coming year. The demand for shares will determine the amount of shares listed. MacDonald Dzirutwe, Isaac Anyaogu and Andrew Heavens contributed to the reporting.
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Wall St Week ahead-Megacap earnings and Fed meeting to headline busy US market week
The U.S. Stock Rally faces a potentially significant week in order to maintain its momentum going into the year-end. This includes a flood corporate results, headlined by Megacap Companies and a possible interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve following its two-day meeting. Investors may be concerned about the escalation of U.S.-China tensions in the next few days. Meanwhile, the U.S. shutdown continues to cause uncertainty. The S&P 500 posted a record-breaking closing high on the Friday after a 36% rise since the low of the year, in April. The benchmark index has risen over 15% in the past year. Chris Fasciano is the chief market strategist of Commonwealth Financial Network. He said that given the fact that the market has been on a rally for several months, without any significant declines, the equities market could continue to be choppy. Fasciano stated that "what we need to hear is corporate America talk positively about the economy and continue beating earnings." "When people get nervous, they do so when consumer confidence or business confidence is on the decline." The third-quarter earnings season has started well, despite the disappointments of companies like Texas Instruments and streaming service Netflix. According to LSEG IBES, the S&P 500 profit is estimated to be 10.4% higher than a year earlier, based on results reported by 143 companies. 87% of companies surpassed analysts' revenue and earnings expectations so far. The next week will be the busiest for the season with more than 170 companies reporting. Microsoft, Apple Alphabet Amazon Meta Platforms are five of the seven "Magnificent Seven" companies. These firms have huge market capitalizations, dominate equity indexes, and posted massive profit growth in the last couple of years. The Magnificent Seven's advantage over the rest index has narrowed, but they are still expected post better results in this period. According to data released this week by Tajinder Dhillon senior research analyst at LSEG, earnings for the group will rise 16.6% compared to an 8.1% increase for the rest index. Several of the largest companies in the world are also major players in the artificial-intelligence industry. This has driven the stock market's performance. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise Financial. He said that these large tech reports will have the biggest impact between now and the year's end. The hurdle rate for these companies is high as they prepare to report earnings next week. Next week, other companies will report their results including oil giants Exxon & Chevron, payment firms Visa & Mastercard and drugmaker Eli Lilly. Fed policymakers are widely expected to reduce the current benchmark rate, which is 4%-4.25%, by another quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. This view was reinforced by Friday's inflation data that were lower than anticipated. The markets will be more responsive to the Fed's Jerome Powell as they have already factored in that rate change into their asset prices. They are also expecting further cuts to rates at their next meeting, which is expected to take place in December. The Fed's rate-cutting strategy would have the biggest impact if it showed any signs of a deviation, said Dominic Pappalardo. Chief multi-assets strategist at Morningstar Wealth. The Fed may be hindered in its decision-making due to the lack of information provided by the federal government since the shutdown began on 1 October, including the delays in the release of employment data at a moment when there are growing concerns about the state of the labor markets. Art Hogan is the chief market strategist for B Riley Wealth. He said that an increasingly prolonged shutdown, which has already lasted more than average in previous shutdowns, also poses a greater risk to economic growth. Hogan stated that the longer the situation continues, the harder it will be for the market to ignore. Investors had also largely shrugged off trade-related risks over the past few months. However, renewed U.S. China rifts has brought tensions back to the forefront between the two world's largest economies. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to impose significantly higher tariffs against China on November 1 after Beijing implemented export controls for rare earths. Investors are watching the developments surrounding the upcoming meeting between Trump, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to see if tensions can be eased between the two nations. "If tariffs increase to the levels President Trump has threatened on China, you'd see a volatile and likely a negative reaction in the markets, especially if investors anticipate that this is going to last," Saglimbene stated.
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Cameroon arrests opposition figures before presidential elections
His campaign reported that authorities in Cameroon have detained 30 people linked to Issa tchiroma's presidential campaign. This has heightened tensions before Monday's results announcement. Anicet Ekane is the leader of the MANIDEM Party and Djeukam tchameni is a prominent member of the Union for Change. Both had supported Tchiroma’s candidacy. In the nation that produces cocoa and oil, there have been increasing clashes between security and Tchiroma supporters. Tchiroma called for more nationwide protests to take place on Sunday at 1400 GMT. Paul Atanga Nji confirmed at a Saturday press conference that arrests were made in connection with an "insurrectional" movement, but he refused to reveal the names or number of those detained. Nji stated that "Calls to protest by certain politicians who are obsessed with power create conditions for a crisis in security and contribute to the implementation scheme of insurrection." Tchiroma, in a Sunday post on the Facebook page of his campaign, rejected accusations of rebellion and claimed that government officials tried to negotiate with those arrested prior to their arrest. You arrested them because they refused to accept your proposal. When you tried to negotiate with them were they not terrorists? Tchiroma wrote. Tchiroma is a former minister who was once an ally to President Paul Biya. He has declared victory and said he won't accept any other outcome. In the last week, protests have erupted in several cities after local media reported partial results of the election that showed Biya on track to be declared winner. Biya could be in power for seven more years, if he is declared the winner by the Constitutional Council on Monday. (Reporting and editing by Aidan Lewis; Bate Felix)
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Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia, says that Slovakia will not participate in EU scheme to meet Ukraine's military requirements
Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, said that Slovakia would not participate in any European Union program aimed at funding military assistance for Ukraine to fight Russia's invasion. Slovakia has allowed commercial sales but stopped all state aid to Ukraine in 2023 when Fico came to power. Fico disagrees with European Union countries on the war and says that a solution cannot be found on the battlefield. The EU leaders decided on Thursday that they would meet Ukraine's urgent financial needs for the next two-years, but did not endorse a plan to fund a loan of 140 billion euros to Kyiv using frozen Russian assets. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that the money could immediately be used to improve Ukraine's air defense, its air fleet and its front-line positions. Fico said in a televised press conference that he would not allow Slovakia to participate in any financial scheme to help Ukraine manage its war and military expenditures. Risks of Sanctions Fico also criticized EU sanctions against Russia because of its war in Ukraine. He said that they hurt Europe even more. Both Slovakia and Hungary are buyers of Russian energy and now have to navigate U.S. Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft & Lukoil, which will come into effect in the next month. Fico, when asked about these risks on Sunday by a journalist, said that Slovnaft is a part of Hungary's MOL oil and gas group and not a buyer of oil. Fico's first comment since the United States announced sanctions last week was, "At the moment we do not evaluate it in that way." Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, said on Friday that Hungary is working to find a way around U.S. Sanctions.
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Reports: Kremlin wrong to speak about cancelling Putin-Trump Summit
State television Vesti, on its Telegram channel, reported that the Kremlin stated on Sunday that it was incorrect to speak about canceling a meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and U.S. president Donald Trump. However, it added that preparations were needed. They are clear about this: "Presidents can't just meet to waste time. They cannot meet just for the sake meeting. They have instructed the (U.S. secretary of state Marco) Rubio and the (Russian foreign minister Sergei) Lavrov to prepare for this meeting. "The process is complex," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said to state TV Kremlin reporter Pavel Zarubin. Peskov commented on the sanctions that the U.S. imposed on the Russian oil giants Lukoil & Rosneft. He called them "unfriendly steps", but stated that Russia aims to establish friendly relations with every country, including the U.S. "Despite the different nuances expressed by the President of the United States we must remain oriented towards our own interests." Peskov said that building good relations with other countries, including the United States, was in our interests. "Ofcourse, the actions taken this week were unfriendly. In fact, they have damaged our chances of reviving our relations. This does not mean we should abandon our aspirations. Peskov stated that we should always do what's best for us. He said that Russia will prosecute anyone who is found to have been involved in the possible seizure of Russian assets. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Guy Faulconbridge
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Sudan's RSF claims to have captured al-Fashir Army headquarters
Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces announced on Sunday that they had taken over the army's headquarters in al-Fashir. This was the last stronghold of the Sudanese Army in Darfur, in the western part of the country. The army has not yet made a public statement about its current situation. RSF has been fighting the army, former rebels, and local fighters for 18 months. The RSF has been targeting civilians with frequent artillery and drone strikes. Meanwhile, the siege is spreading starvation in the city of 250,000 residents. Al-Fashir is a major political victory for RSF. It could also hasten the physical separation of the country, by allowing the paramilitary to consolidate their control over the vast Darfur Region. This region has been identified as the basis for a parallel Government established this summer. As seen following the capture of the Zamzam camp South. RSF soldiers have been accused of committing robberies and sexual assaults on roadside by those who left al-Fashir. U.N. mandated mission Last month, the RSF was accused of multiple crimes against humanity during the siege at al-Fashir. Atrocities have also been committed by the army. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Khalid Abdelaziz Nafisa, Menna, Alaa, Eltahir)
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Exxon sues California over climate disclosure laws
Exxon Mobil filed a lawsuit against California on Friday challenging two state laws requiring large companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emission and climate-related risks. Exxon filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court of the Eastern District of California arguing that Senate Bills 261 and 253 violated its First Amendment rights because they force Exxon "to serve as a mouthpiece" for ideas it does not agree with. The company asked the court to stop the state of California enforcing these laws. Exxon claims that the Californian frameworks for reporting climate change are misleading and counterproductive. The oil giant claims it reports climate risks and emissions voluntarily and is opposed to California's frameworks. California, a state ruled by Democrats, has had some of strictest environmental regulations in the past in areas such as vehicle fuel efficiency standards and policy planning. This is after it passed a climate law in 2006. California passed two laws that will require companies to report publicly their greenhouse gas emission and climate-related risks in 2023. Apple, Ikea, and Microsoft supported the California laws, while other major companies such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and others called them "onerous". SB 253 mandates that public and private companies active in the State and generating revenue greater than $1 billion per year publish an extensive account regarding their carbon emissions beginning in 2026. The law requires that companies disclose their own emissions as well as indirect emissions from suppliers and customers. SB 261 mandates that companies operating in the state and with revenues exceeding $500 million disclose financial risks related to climate change, as well as strategies to mitigate those risks. Exxon also claimed that SB 261 is in conflict with federal securities laws which regulate what publicly-traded companies are required to disclose about financial and environmental risk. Exxon Mobil said that the First Amendment prohibits California from pursuing its policy of stigmatization, which would force it to describe the activities of its non-California businesses using the state's preferred framing. California Department of Justice or California Air Resources Board didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Reporting by Chandni in Bengaluru, and Mike Scarcella from Washington. Editing by Deepa and Matthew Lewis.
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Exxon sues California over climate disclosure laws
Exxon Mobil filed a lawsuit against California on Friday challenging two state laws requiring large companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emission and climate-related risks. Exxon filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court of the Eastern District of California arguing that Senate Bills 261 and 253 violated its First Amendment rights because they force Exxon "to serve as a mouthpiece" for ideas it does not agree with. The company asked the court to stop the state of California enforcing these laws. Exxon claims that the Californian frameworks for reporting climate change are misleading and counterproductive. The oil giant claims it reports climate risks and emissions voluntarily and is opposed to California's frameworks. After passing a climate law in 2006, the Democrat-ruled California had long been known for its strict environmental regulations in areas such as vehicle fuel efficiency standards. California has passed two laws that will require companies to report publicly their greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate-related financial risk. Apple, Ikea, and Microsoft all supported the California laws, while other major companies, such as American Farm Bureau Federation, Chamber of Commerce and American Farm Bureau Federation, opposed them, calling them "onerous." SB 253 mandates that public and private companies active in the State and generating revenue greater than $1 billion per year publish a detailed account of their carbon emission starting in 2026. The law requires that companies disclose their own emissions as well as indirect emissions from suppliers and customers. SB 261 mandates that companies operating in the state and with revenues exceeding $500 million disclose financial risks related to climate change, as well as strategies to mitigate those risks. Exxon argued SB 261 is in conflict with federal securities laws that regulate what publicly-traded companies are required to disclose about financial and environmental risk. California Department of Justice or California Air Resources Board didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. (Reporting from Chandni in Bengaluru, and Mike Scarcella at Washington; editing by Deepa Babyington)
OPEC and China are the triple whammy for uncertainty in crude oil: Russell
Crude oil prices have been driven primarily by the unwinding OPEC+ production cut, China storage flows, and geopolitical tensions this year. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable.
It is important to understand the factors that influence the market. It is impossible to predict with accuracy the future of these factors.
Forecasting the market is a difficult task for the crude oil industry because all three factors are unpredictable and can change rapidly.
The Energy Markets Forum, held in Fujairah (the hub for oil storage and shipping in the United Arab Emirates) this week, was a place where participants and attendees could not help but notice the contradiction.
The level of uncertainty about the future two or three quarters is marked.
Prices tend to move in opposite directions depending on the three factors that currently shape crude markets.
It is not certain whether global demand will be able to absorb this extra oil.
The situation is further complicated because the increase in exports of the group does not match the permitted increases in production.
Since April, when the group began to ease production restrictions, analysts and industry sources estimate the eight OPEC+ members have produced about three quarters of the additional oil output they targeted.
The market is still waiting for 500,000 bpd or 0.5% of the global demand.
The lifting of OPEC+'s production quotas is actually a positive for the prices.
The market may not react strongly if the eight OPEC+ member countries agree to increase their production quotas at a weekend meeting, as they wait to see what extra oil is actually available.
CHINA STORAGE
China's storage of crude oil is seen as a positive factor, at least for the short-term. It has absorbed any excess crude in recent months and helped to stabilize the benchmark Brent futures price in a tight range between $65 and $70 per barrel.
China does not disclose the amount of crude oil flowing into strategic and commercial storages. However, the surplus can easily be estimated by subtracting the volume processed by refineries and the total of imported and domestically produced oil.
According to this, China has likely been building up its stockpiles at least by 500,000 bpd this year.
It is hard to predict, given the lack transparency, whether China will build up its inventories or if they will reduce them.
Price is a good predictor, because China has a history of purchasing extra crude oil when prices are low and drawing from its inventories when they rise.
LSEG Oil Research estimates that China's crude oil imports fell to 10.83 million bpd, down from 11.65 millions bpd, in August. This is the lowest level since February.
Oil prices rose in June, during the conflict between Israel & Iran. This is when September cargoes were arranged.
The short conflict between Israel, Iran and Syria also serves to remind us that geopolitics has played a larger role in this year and remains an unpredictable factor.
The trade wars started by Donald Trump have created economic uncertainty, as well as tensions in the Middle East.
These events will also have an uncertain impact. In the case of Russia, damage to its refineries will likely reduce its refined fuel exports but increase crude oil shipments, which would lead to higher refining margins.
Price volatility can be caused by uncertainty, but market participants may also become cautious and not push as hard in one direction or the other while they wait for hard data to determine which factor will win.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Jan Harvey).
(source: Reuters)